Re: [GKD] RFI: Who is Linking DE with BOP Strategies?

2005-08-25 Thread Cornelio Hopmann
On 8/11/05, Jim Stodder wrote:

 Point (1): There would be large pedagogical advantages, even in the 1st
 world, to having MUCH greater use of sophisticated DE. However -- and
 this is key to my argument -- the institutional constraint of Academic
 Tenure, at both the Primary-Secondary and University levels, make truly
 widespread adoption impossible for many decades.
  ... snip 
 Point (2): Furthermore, the supply availability and cost advantages at
 the BOP make DE even more overwhelming. DE would be the ONLY way to
 feasibly deliver widespread teaching at the BOP. Developing such a DE
 program could also actually empower and leverage the resources of
 teaching profession in many languages and cultures at the BOP.

Well, just today we had the second meeting of our national committee for
support of the use of technology in education where we discussed how to
avoid the collapse of 128 computer-labs installed in public primary and
secondary education.

Here are the hard facts:

(a) Nicaragua spends $54 per student a year in primary and $58 in
secondary education.
(b) This amounts to $0.27 and $0.29 per school day (assuming 200 days
per year).
(c) Teachers are being paid between $0.52 and $0.58 per class-hour with
group-sizes between 35 to 60 students.
(d) A single hour of a single computer takes at least $0.38 let alone in
electricity, without Internet access.
(e) With Internet costs this rises to $0.52 -assuming 12 hours of daily
use and fixed cost per month of Internet access-

I would be seriously interested in any DE-technology that does it for
less and at the same time is more effective than a real teacher in a
real class-room.

Yours,

Cornelio

PS: I've got somewhere UNDP and UNESCO statistics on teachers salaries,
which show the Nicaraguan case with regard to spending in education and
teacher salaries is by no means an exception.




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Re: [GKD] The $100 Laptop

2005-04-18 Thread Cornelio Hopmann
Dear Colleagues,

I'm a little bit puzzled: if the cost of the components by themselves
and isolated add up to $90 - assuming low costs due to the scale of the
operation - they will be assembled into a laptop which is then
preloaded, tested, packed, stored and shipped all for $0? (this is
necessary to maintain a profit of $10)

Because if not, the target of a $100 per unit as sold / delivered to
Education-Ministries can not be met, even assuming breakthroughs in
display technology and the claimed component prices.

Perhaps I missed something essential in the project layout?

Yours,

Cornelio



On Monday, April 11, 2005, Ken DiPietro wrote:

 Daily Wireless has an excellent article on the $100 laptop among several
 other related subjects. I did a fast check with a few suppliers and I am
 reliably told that the prices quoted in this article for the individual
 parts can be easily attained based on the volume that is projected.
 
 The article can be found here:
 http://dailywireless.org/modules.php?name=Newsfile=articlesid=3903





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[GKD] Should Developed Countries Subsidize the Internet for LDCs?

2004-12-10 Thread Cornelio Hopmann
Dear Colleagues,

As it was tacitly touched upon in our recent focused discussion and is a
hot topic for WSIS-2005, I would be interested in other opinions.

To state it: in many cases they should not!...and not for the sake of
avoiding spending but rather to avoid harming the Developing
Countries.

Why? Investing in and operating ICT-infrastructure takes money. This
money may be spent in 3 different ways:

(a) Paying for equipment (or reducing it's price) to be donated
(b) Subsidizing material Operation-costs (like communication lines,
energy etc.)
(c) Paying local personnel totally or partially

Let's see now position by position:

(a) Actually the money goes to vendors of equipment, not to
beneficiaries (i.e. it gives access to a market where otherwise there
would be no access). Moreover -due to the high operation-costs- in many
cases recipients of these donations find themselves either obliged to
spend where otherwise they would not have spent a cent or simply not use
the donated equipment.

(b) Specifically if we talk about subsidizing communication costs, the
money again goes to the big players not the beneficiaries. Again it
opens a market that otherwise would not be accessible. Additionally in
many, many countries local communication costs are artificially inflated
by a monopoly situation or by the fact that local Telco's have to feed
so many interested parties -from corrupt executives to corrupt
politicians- that the TELCO-business is closer to Mafia-racketeering
than to an honest business. Foreign money would allow them to perpetuate
this situation.

(c) Even though theoretically possible, this one is the least common
option I've seen...and comes with the risk that the hired personnel
looks after the interests of their employers rather than the needs of
those whom they supposedly serve.

There are arguments that without subsidies many poor could not afford
ICT-services or would not use them as being too expensive compared with
other options. Well, these seem to me similar to the arguments that by
subsidizing agro-exports below production-costs (Milk, Grains, Rice,
Sugar, etc.) the big ones -USA, European Union, others- help the poor
to get fed...yet we all know that in practice this dumping destroys
local economies and does not help develop them.

Corollary: Unless it can be shown beforehand that by using ICT-services
people are truly better off or that a specific development-objective
cannot be obtained by other more efficient (without subsidies!) and
effective means, subsidies have a tendency to deepen and not to correct
distortions.


Yours sincerely,

Cornelio




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[GKD-DOTCOM] What Do We Mean By Poor?

2004-11-18 Thread Cornelio Hopmann
Dear Colleagues,

I suspect that we operate under two quite different concepts of poor,
which in turn gives rise to more confusion.

Under the first concept -as for instance used by UNDP for the Human
Development Index- poor or not so poor is -to put it briefly-
measured in terms of liberty - understood as real choices to conduct
their own life -and freedom- understood as being free from most basic
threats like risks to life or health, hunger, fear of oppression.
(Thanks to FDR, who first coined these shorthand definitions).

Under the second concept -as used by pure economists- poor or not so
poor is measured in income, consumption, or productive capacities.

Both concepts are somewhat related, but not in a straight forward
manner: i.e. Bill Gates has apparently more liberties and freedoms than
-say- the woman in the Philippines that puts the latest version of
Windows XP into their boxes.

Likewise there are backward-constraints: some services that imply more
liberty -like education- or more freedom -like health services- need
resources (i.e. they are not for free and hence the question arises what
to do if those who need those services don't have nor can they
contribute collectively the resources that are needed to provide those
services).

It isn't an extremely serious problem in countries or societies, where
those without are a smaller fraction of the whole population. Here it
can be solved by insurance and taxes (it's a classical political
problem).

However it becomes an extremely serious problem without easy solutions
in those countries -the overwhelming majority- where those without
count for 50% to 80% of the population. And in these cases it cannot be
solved either by insurance or by taxes, simply because there aren't
enough resources available that might be partially re-distributed.

Having said all this, let me clarify my position:

(1) There is no doubt that ICT can -and many times does- make the poor
less poor in the sense of the first concept.

(2) Yet even in these conditions a careful analysis beforehand is
needed, to see whether the same effect could not be obtained by using a
lesser amount of resources, without going over to ICTs. I found out
that sometimes ICT is indeed the most cost-effective solution, whereas
in other situations it's an outright waste of resources.

(3) However if we are talking about a win-win situation between
corporations and the poor (persons, families, sectors, countries,
regions) then it would be deeply unfair for the poor to measure on one
side of win in terms of Dollars and Cents and on the other side of
win, in terms of liberty and freedom, because this implies that we
condemn the poor to remain forever poor in the second sense, which
-due to the backward-constraints mentioned above- implies that they will
depend forever on charity or lack basic liberties and basic freedoms (on
any level: persons, families, sectors, countries, regions).


Yours truly,

Cornelio



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Re: [GKD-DOTCOM] Win-Win Business Models

2004-11-15 Thread Cornelio Hopmann
Dear Al,

(1) It's simply and plainly wrong that what sells, serves - sometimes
it serves, sometimes it doesn't.

(2) It's again a gross misperception that earnings even of hundreds of
thousands of new middlemen in ICT-service-distribution-chains
eradicate poverty.

(3) If it were true, then your proclaimed benefit of ICT -- that is,
eliminating existing (!) middlemen in existing distribution channels --
and eliminating supply-chains for other goods by using ICT, the examples
you present as success stories -- would likewise increase poverty.
(Actually there are examples where -- looking at a whole country, a
region or a complete locality -- the country, region or locality became
poorer by eliminating middlemen. Only the new endpoints of the chain  --
large corporations, individual producers/consumers -- had some gain,
where normally the largest gain was for the biggest players in the
game).

(4) Please name a single example listed at www.digitaldividends.org
that shows using comparative data (either before/after or
group-in-question/control-group) that the poor end-users of ICT-services
were made less poor by using ICT. (I definitely do not accept indirect
arguments like It's bought by them...and because the poor would not buy
it unless it serves... hence it makes them less poor. The poor buy also
Aspirin, Milk powder, Coca-Cola, Brandy up to -- to make a point --
crack...but none of these products makes them less poor).

(5) The most frequent examples -- sales and purchase-prices -- are
misleading, as their impact is based not on informing individuals but on
informing the public, therefore producing synchronized actions. (As done
by the Stock and Commodity-markets and the respective Stock-tickers for
about 140 years --long before ICTs -- only fractions of stocks and
commodities are really traded at those markets, yet they define
publicly acceptable prices because they are public).

(6) Yet even though already about 80% of the Nicaraguan coffee-producers
do know the indicators of NY-commodity-futures on coffee, it doesn't
help them significantly. Actual prices paid are determined by about 8 or
9 large-scale-middlemen that trade about 80% of the world's coffee
beans. On the other hand, the volume they may offer is insignificant
compared to market-dimensions, even if all coffee producers of Nicaragua
would agree to sell only jointly. The supposed counter-examples of
specialty-coffee which obtains higher prices in public auctions is
economically irrelevant -- as are the US$ 1,000 a bottle for an
exquisite French wine compared with thousands of hectoliters of French
wine production, which sell for US$ 5 a bottle.

(7) May I stress: I'm definitely in favor of large companies discovering
the poor as possible markets, yet please don't propagate it using
misleading arguments or misnomers. It's a business like any other
business: not any less nor more humanitarian than any other.

(8) I still have some hope that in some moment in time they also will
re-discover an old discovery made by Henry Ford: the key is not only to
produce a Model-T car at low cost but to increase the worker's salaries
up to the point where they themselves could afford to buy one. Hopefully
the Chinese workers producing Cellular Phones, Computers and Cars and
other appliances will have in the near future an income sufficient to
allow them to buy one.


Yours truly,

Cornelio


On Friday, November 12, 2004, Al Hammond wrote:

 For Tom Abeles and others who have joined the conversation recently, I
 would like to point out that we have documented a number of what we
 believe can be win-win models, and even sustainable models, in
 connectivity, agriculture, finance, health care, and other sectors, in
 detailed case studies that can be found on www.digitaldividends.org or
 with links under the resources page of the conference website,
 http://povertyprofit.wri.org. We have also posted earlier in this
 discussion detailed market data characterizing the size of the
 low-income or bottom-of-the-pyramid markets in a number of developing
 countries. Many of the companies coming to the Eradicating Poverty
 Through Profits conference in San Francisco next month are seriously
 exploring how to serve such markets in ways that generate real local
 value, while also yielding a profit.




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Re: [GKD-DOTCOM] Blurring Corporate and NGO Lines

2004-11-05 Thread Cornelio Hopmann
Dear Al,

On one side you are perfectly right: large corporations do have
resources like technical expertise, logistics and capital, that could
and should be leveraged to fight poverty (yet be aware of Halliburton's
performance in Iraq or the Water-companies in Bolivia).

Yet I'm afraid that your definition of NGOs only comprises that type of
organization you yourself are involved with: Northern, mostly
philanthropic associations, that make their living from donor money and
sponsoring/executing smaller or larger, but never large-scale-projects.
The term NGO within developing countries extends far beyond this limited
vision, as here NGOs are all types of social organizations of the
beneficiaries themselves, when they are not established as commercial
or public entities. This means a teachers-organization is an NGO -and
most of their programs go way beyond classical trade-unions- as they are
student-associations, small farmers associations, women's-associations,
health-associations and so on.

Many of them are confined to a single location, others have found ways
of coordination and collaboration on a larger scale, up to whole
countries or even beyond.

This framework -almost a natural one and not something crafted- joins
more expertise on Development-issues, success and failures and the
reasons why, then the whole bunch of experts of large multilateral
organizations like Worldbank, UNESCO, UNDP, FAO and (!) the big
corporations jointly. For a strikingly simple reason: it's their life
that's at stake not only success-reports or quarterly earnings.

To get again into numbers: let's assume that you need one person-day to
train 25 persons in how to use the Internet (or more generally, some
ICT-application) for their benefit. This converts into 160,000
person-days to train 4 million farmers or the equivalent of 667
man-years. (Already almost out of scope to be done by highly-skilled and
highly-paid professionals of the corporate world: it wouldn't make sense
economically with respect to ROI). If we scale it up to let's say 200
Million farmer-families, we would need about 34 thousand person-years to
do the job - completely beyond capacity of even the largest corporate
entity. And we didn't even take into account that there at least about
50 or 60 local idioms to be considered, hundreds of different cultural
traditions and thousands and thousands of different local social
settings, in which each needs a sometimes larger sometimes smaller
adjustment of training-materials, strategies and settings. So without
close-support of local NGOs the task cannot and hence will not be done.

Corollary: the true challenge is not getting the corporate-world
involved but to get thousands of local NGOs involved as counterparts.
The former is almost simple -convince the CEO and the Board of
Directors, maybe some important shareholders. The second is the truly
hard task, but unavoidable if you would like to succeed on scale.


Yours,
Cornelio

P.S. For some reason MIT-media-lab left India, ATT  Bellsouth sold
out completely their ICT-business in Latin-American (i.e., even the best
of the corporate-world sometimes doesn't match with local conditions and
traditions).




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Re: [GKD-DOTCOM] Is Profitability Essential for Sustainability?

2004-11-02 Thread Cornelio Hopmann
Initial remarks: the Moderator's question does not contain a definition
of profit; it might be a monetary return on invested capital, it might
be an excess over pure operation-costs, it might be equal to the
operation costs but those who use the offered ICT-services do better by
using those services.

Second remark: we made a large comparative study on Telecenters in
Nicaragua and do continous monitoring and -except in very special
settings like schools- we didn't observe any significant difference in
services offered, prices charged and people attending, between
supposedly for profit and supposedly non-profit Telecenters.

Third remarks:

(1) Unfortunately ICT-services are not free -like air- someone has to
provide them and someone has to pay those who provide them.

(2) Costs to be covered are the use of communication-infrastructure, the
personel involved in bringing the service, the replacement of equipment
and consumables, the place (or the rent for it), the energy used.

(3) It turns out that 1 years full operation-costs (including
depreciation for equipment replacement) in many cases comes already
close to the initial investment-costs or even exceeds them.

(4) The current trend -look at Cellular phones and their business model
or Ink-jet printers- for communication-technology makes that initial
investment become more and more irrelevant compared to operation-costs.

(5) Hence the whole question boils down to who pays and how (and to
a certain degree why) and specifically the operation-costs.

Fourth remark: if -as in some cases- philanthropic initial donors also
cover the operation-costs -mostly they don't- still the question is
whether donors should be encouraged to spend on ICT or is the money
better spent on other more important issues. If it is claimed that
Governments -either donors or local- should cover these costs, the
question becomes even more important. The only reason might be that ICT
is more effective than other means to fight poverty (or it's a basic
requirement to achieve those other means). Generalized hard evidence is
missing.

Fifth remark: if there is no substantial gain for beneficiaries -i.e.
they are truly better off with ICT than without or ICT provides
essential services at lower costs -then there is no reason to spend on
ICT- neither for them nor for anyone else. This depends on a case by
case analysis -and unfortunately this analysis in many, many instances
is not done, neither before nor after.

Sixth remark: A telecenter -or whatever other type of ICT-service-
without a sound business-model with respect to the above ... shouldn't
even be started.

Seventh remark: We found -and there are other examples in the
literature- that non-benefactor Telecenters (i.e. those either started
for profit or by the beneficiaries themselves) had in general more
sound business-models than those mounted for benefit (i.e. by any type
of Benefactors, public, private, NGOs).

Corollary: self interest -some times expressed in terms of
profit-expectations- is a necessary requirement for sustainability.


Cornelio




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Re: [GKD-DOTCOM] Can Technology and a Business Approach Make Globalization Work for the Poor?

2004-10-26 Thread Cornelio Hopmann
Dear Colleagues,

I think we should separate (and not mix) the question of what marketing
and packaging strategies are needed to sell ICT-services to the poor in
a profitable way from what ICT-services the poor might need (and how to
provide them in sustainable, maybe even profitable way). The former has
almost nothing to do with the latter, (i.e. a credit-shark or
slum-landlord apparently sells something to the poor and mostly in an
extremely profitable way -for him- yet he does not provide them with any
service they need, which means credit not on cut-throat conditions or
decent housing, or more generally something that makes them less
poor.) Plainly speaking, selling a service does not mean to serve,
though many marketing-strategies try to sell us on their equivalence.

Second required separation: there are services -like micro-credit,
exports or material-purchase for cooperatives- that may require
ICT-usage to cut operations-costs. The paper-work for a 100 US$ credit
is almost as extensive as for a 100,000,000 US$ Credit- such that the
poor may receive a service at reasonable costs. In my context,
micro-credit is more expensive than credit cards, yet ICT is not used by
the poor themselves -or only to a limited extent- rather than by an
organisation that provides the service for the poor. There are similar
examples in education and health-care.

Third observation: neither the first nor the second bares any relation
with Globalization, they are just local questions, except that -maybe- a
global entity acts as service-provider and not a local one. If the
focus of this discussion aims to be Globalization (and not only
global versus local service-provider), then the questions have to
be (1) how are Globalization and ICT inter-related and (2) which
specific usage of ICT within Globalization serves the poor, (i.e. makes
them less poor), or on the opposite hand, which ICT-usage in the context
of Globalization makes them poorer.


Yours,

Cornelio




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Re: [GKD-DOTCOM] Cyber-Security, Policy and Cyber-Terrorism

2004-10-05 Thread Cornelio Hopmann
Dear Sam,

Though I agree with your intention, I disagree that there is commonly
shared definition even of Cyber-crime.

Why? Looking strictly at criminal-codes in different countries, there
are Internet-based activities which are protected by the Constitution in
one country, and are criminal offenses in others. And these striking
differences exist even between countries which are commonly believed to
share the same values.

A tiny example: using the swastika (the Nazi-symbol) on a website is a
criminal offense in Germany but protected by the First Amendment in the
United States.

Another more technical example: using any type of encryption in email,
chat or the Web was at least - I don't know whether it still is - a
criminal offense in France, but is a recommended practice in the US for
doing business.

Corollary: whenever content becomes important there is no common
minimal standard of law (as there is no consensus about the limits of
freedom of opinion and freedom of information).

Suggestion: limit the discussion - beyond commercial relations, which
was the previous topic - to subjects like hacking, cracking, sabotage
and similar acts - all non-content related - where there appears to be a
minimal consensus as to what constitutes a criminal offense and what
doesn't.

Yours truly,

Cornelio


On Tuesday, October 5, 2004, Sam Lanfranco [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 We all have a pretty good notion of what is meant by cyber-crime. We
 may disagree on the scope of the definition but we do have a common feel
 for its domain. I suspect that we all do not have a good, or common,
 notion of what is meant by cyber-terrorism. We do agree that what fits
 our definition is by its very nature bad, but that does not mean we
 agree as to what it is.
 
 We risk confusion if we combine cyber-terrorism with cyber-crime in
 the same analysis. I would suggest that the two streams of concerns be
 treated seperately, even though in some cases the same organizations and
 same tools are used to pursue the culprits. Terrorism may be a crime,
 but as generally understood cyber-crime tends toward economic crimes
 and/or the crimes of libel and slander. Cyber-terrorism is something
 else.

..snip...




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Re: [GKD-DOTCOM] Cyber-Security and E-commerce

2004-10-04 Thread Cornelio Hopmann
Dear Mr. Sharkovski,

I do understand perfectly your frustration, yet don't share your opinion
- or perception - that there are just some powerful anonymous groups out
there, which intentionally try to harm Macedonia by putting it on a
black list. Why should they? (And by the way, this IMHO applies to
almost any developing country, therefore Macedonia may serve just as an
example).

Under current conditions, there are just 2 recognized public entities
that - on the state level - may give you credentials:

(a) the US-government (Departments of State and Commerce in their
country-profiles and related info, see for instance
http://www.mac.doc.gov/ceebic/countryr/Fyrm/MARKET/Macedonia%27s%20Informa
ti
on%20Technology%20Sector.pdf which in fact makes quite critical
observations with respect to laws and ICT in Macedonia).

(b) the EU-commission (Commissioner for commerce) in Brussels.

Even though not publicly admitted, both are obviously say modulated by
general political interest, yet they don't operate anonymously. And
there are the private risk-assessment agencies like Standard  Poors or
the respective risk-assessment departments of banks and [public] trade-
or export-risk assurance companies.

Hence the only way out - in your situation and similar situations in
other countries - is to engage at least one of these public entities and
at least one of the private ones in a more formal assessment of your
conditions and then distribute their assessment (like percentage of
risk-penalties in trade-assurance contracts etc.).

Unfair? Yes! Avoidable? Definitively no!

Yours sincerely,
Cornelio



On Friday, October 1, 2004, L Sharkovski [EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:

 I think perhaps some on the GKD list have missed the problem that my
 compatriot in Macedonia is describing. The point, for us at least, is
 not that there is rampant cyber-criminality in Macedonia that the
 government has failed to prevent. The point is that it is just as safe
 to buy from Macedonia, or sell to Macedonians online, as it is from any
 other country. Yet the organization Exportbureau.com has alleged that
 there are online fraud schemes based in Macedonia and has placed
 Macedonia on their list of Suspect Shipping or Contact Addresses. There
 is no contact address or information listed on THEIR website, so it is
 extremely difficult to determine who this group is and where they reside
 (although, after some research, we believe they reside in Taiwan).

..snip...
 
 It is bitterly ironic that Macedonia -- a very small country with
 relatively low cyber-density compared with the industrialized countries
 in Western Europe and the US -- is accused of being major sources of
 cyber-fraud. In a world of cyber-criminality, what percentage of that is
 Macedonian? I will tell you: Zero.
 
 Yet our companies are shut off from access to major e-commerce channels.
 So it is not an issue of lack of laws or lack of enforcement. It is an
 issue of too much power in the hands of groups that seem to be informal
 arbiters of which countries are secure enough for e-commerce.
 Furthermore, they are completely inaccessible and unaccountable. They do
 not reply to our requests for evidence of their accusation. And there is
 no way for us to counter their accusation other than trying to publicize
 our security through discussions like this one. It is difficult for us
 to convey how frustrating and damaging this situation is for us. In many
 ways, this type of baseless accusation, which harms our economy, is just
 as lawless as the accusation they are making.

..snip...




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[GKD] RFI: Low Cost / Low Energy Printing Devices

2004-05-25 Thread Cornelio Hopmann
Dear GKD Members,

I'm setting up the initial balance sheets and specs for a National
Crusade by which we pretend to equip each and every of the 6700 public
school in the country with a low-scale internet access (2 computers per
school, sufficient bandwidth for email and slow downloading of mid-size
archives, mostly for teachers use).

Here comes my question: What are the best printing options available
(Low energy, as in many place we will have to use Photo-voltaic, low
operation costs)? Any experiences with recycled Matrix-printers or
similar devices?

Thanks

Cornelio
eNicaragua/niDG




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Re: [GKD] Knowledge Bank Evaluation Criticizes Dev. Gateway

2004-03-17 Thread Cornelio Hopmann
Dear GKD Members,

I would think it's extremely useful to precisely define that about which
we are going to exchange opinions.

To clarify some citations:

Since FY97, the Bank has spent some US$220 million for corporate,
network, and Regional knowledge-sharing activities and more than US$60
million for its three main global knowledge initiatives, the Development
Gateway, the Global Development Learning Network (GDLN), and the Global
Development Network (GDN). (p XIII, Executive Resume, Sharing
Knowledge, OED evaluation)

The Bank has provided a total of US$15.5 million for the start-up of
the Development Gateway, of which US$7 million was spent before its
transfer to the Development Gateway Foundation in 2001. Following that
transfer, the Bank, as a member of the board of the foundation, agreed
to provide an additional US$5 million over the next three years through
its Development Grants Facility. Also, in FY01-FY02, the Bank provided
some US$3.5 million in grants through infoDev for the Country Gateway
program (ibid, P 26).

The first point to clarify is hence whether the topic is Knowledge
Management by the WB or the Development Gateway project, which
represents a tiny fraction of money spent (and efforts involved). (By
the way 220 M in 7 years converts into about 32 M per year. A ridiculous
amount if compared with the scale of WB operations. I dare to suspect
that they spend more in travel-expenses yearly than in
Knowledge-Management, but that would be a complete different
discussion).

I do have my observations with respect to Information-Management by WB
and may subsume these into a simple statement: Please do apply to
yourself what you ask others, namely governments, to comply:
transparency and accountability, which -as a relevant WB paper states-
includes personal(!) responsibility for decisions and their
consequences, and requires full access to all relevant documentation.

However: the Development Gateway project is not (!) related with these
issues of project-auditing. Hence it's incorrect -and  by the way
therefore unfair- to pick the DG if you intend to criticize WB
Knowledge-Management.

Now let's have a closer look on details:
DG contains currently four components: Knowledge/Topics, DgMarketplace,
AiDA, and Country Gateway.

Again 2 citations:

The Development Gateway’s current activities are financed by the
Development Gateway Foundation through funds provided by the
Foundation’s founding partners.21 Annual costs total approximately
US$6M, including management, administration, technology and services.
While funds are provided by the Development Gateway Foundation, the
World Bank provides all staff and services related to the operation of
the Development Gateway through a services agreement. The services
agreement for fiscal year 2002 reflected the full costs of operating the
Development Gateway, totaling $6M. The Country Gateway program team is
funded as part of this $6M, but Country Gateways themselves access
funding from a grant program, infoDev, and from the Gateway Foundation
directly (this is discussed in more detail in the sections on the
Country Gateways and Governance). (p 16, Startup of the Development
Gateway, OED evaluation).

 Allocations to the dgMarket and AiDA are expected to remain relatively
constant, while the budget for Knowledge/Topics has been expanded to
accommodate an increasing number of development topics and focus
pages.23 The budget for the Country Gateway Coordination Team is
projected to increase, reflecting the anticipated addition of 10-20
Country Gateways over the next fiscal year. There is currently no budget
for the addition of new services. The Knowledge/Topics service continues
to be the largest cost center for the Development Gateway. It is also
the service most challenged to define its utility relative to its
beneficiaries and differentiate itself from comparator services. (ibid,
p17)

Both OED and Breton Woods project agree (!!) that DgMarketplace and AiDA
are useful activities, that may correspond to something like a BM
supported portal. And both (!!) agree that the other components are
critical or worthy for discussion of their cost of opportunity.

It's precisely at this point, where I start to wonder about honesty or
motives of those progressives who raise critiques. Why? Who ever had a
closer look to the content of the content pages of DG should have noted
that about 80% of the content is not (!!) WB-knowledge or knowledge
produced by WB affiliates. Why then that micro-tiny fraction of the
whole effort of WB Knowledge-Management, that contains the least
WB-knowledge, draws the major part of attention? And why is it attacked
on false grounds?

It claims also my attention that the emerging network of 58 locally
owned Country-gateways -by the way the Latin America Network of ccDG is
operating already as a true horizontal network among 18 nodes and the
people involved see http://www.developmentgateway.org/lac - is not
worthwhile to be stressed or 

Re: [GKD] RFI: Impact of ICT on Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises

2004-02-17 Thread Cornelio Hopmann
Dear Michael,

I am well aware of the claimed global impact of ICT on overall
capital-productivity, i.e. that improved supply- and distribution
chain-management reduced the amount of capital bound to goods in store,
that improved decision making reduced time-to-market, that standardizing
procedures in all types of financial services improved the ratio of
employees per client etc.

In general that ICT reduced, sometimes dramatically, turn-around-time of
invested capital with likewise dramatic increases in profits.

But I'm also aware of hundreds if not thousands of dot-com
business-models that simply burned billions of dollars, and that looking
backwards had no sound economic base right from the very beginning.

In Development Policies ICT  MISME (Micro, Small and Medium
Enterprises) combine two trendy models: the MISME as driving engine for
economic development and ICT as enabling if not empowering
technology.

MISME as development-engine parted from the statistically correct
observation that in many, many developing countries 40% and more of
employment is provided by micro- and small-businesses with between 3
and 15 employees. More over, that MISME acted as an absorbing buffer when
due to the impact of structural adjustment policies hundreds of
thousands of persons lost their jobs in public administration, formerly
public owned utilities or closed industrial plants. Not to talk about
MISME as a segment fed by rural-to-city migration. Balancing money
invested against jobs created, agencies found out that 1000 US$
channeled to micro- and small enterprises created -at least apparently-
more jobs than the same 1000 US$ channeled to industrial or big
infrastructure projects.

With falling prices for equipment -not to talk about re-cycled equipment
from developed countries- and improved communication-infrastructure,
ICT starts to appear as a possible short-cut to leverage even more the
very large informal sector in developing countries. Again there appear
to be sub-trends: the first focuses on the role of the middle-man and
claims that by improving information-flows small producers in remote
areas may obtain fairer prices and small consumers in remote areas may
pay fairer prices. It should be noted however that already as a model
this trend does not tackle productivity but rather distribution-problems
(who earns the greater share). The second trend claims that ICT improves
dramatically access-to-market opportunities.

Despite that arts  crafts manufacturing represents only a tiny fraction
of the whole informal sector, there are literally hundreds of projects
that claim that they either already improved market-access dramatically
or that they will improve it.

So my question still is: is there any hard evidence that in a
replicatable and scaleable way ICT for arts  crafts has improved the
economic situation and impact of this segment or, more generally, is
there any hard evidence that ICT for arts  crafts is the most efficient
and effective way of using funds for global poverty-reduction. I like to
note, that about 80% of projects I've seen concentrate on market-access,
more precisely on improved marketing. Very, very few tackle the
management as such of supply, production and distribution. As an
example, I searched in vain for software packages to support
cooperatives, i.e. that would ease bundled purchases of supplies and
tools, manage the internal distribution of those supplies and tools, and
improve recollection of produced goods for bundled sales or exports;
where this would be precisely the counterpart to supply-, distribution-
and production-management in developed countries. 99% of the offered
solutions are for the individual usage by the individual micro- or
small entrepeneur.

In my humble opinion many will-be-a-big-success stories read as if
they were dot-com-era business-models. If as economy you have
excess-money to spend, burning some billions might not hurt much nor
many unless those who saw their retirement-funds vanishing, if however
your whole economy is on the brink -as in many developing countries-
burning money easily may drive you over the edge.

Yours

Cornelio




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Re: [GKD-DOTCOM] The Role of the Private Sector

2003-11-28 Thread Cornelio Hopmann
Let me preface my comments by some more general considerations:

(a) No matter how wealthy he might be, a donor is only willing to
finance operation costs -- or even a substantial fraction thereof -- for
1 or 2 years.
(b) As accumulated cost for ongoing operations rapidly exceeds inital
investments (due to breakdown or obsolence), most projects should
consider operation cost and relacements right from the beginning
(it's: only the first PC is for free, you have to pay already for the
next one).
(c) As a consequence of (b), many if not most projects collapse, once
the original donor disappears.
(d) To prevent (c) there is a new buzz-word: sustainability
(e) However, the concept of sustainability holds a deep and
fundamental misunderstanding about the difference between NGOs and
for-profit companies.
(f) In the North (or whatever synonym you like) a NGO gets funding
mainly from donors, endowments, tax-reducibles, public money.
(g) In the South (or whatever synonym you like) there are no rich
donors nor a huge amount of persons interested in tax-deductions, and
public money is urgently needed for 1,001 tasks -- ICT4D is just one
among many.
(h) Thus, sustainability in the South actually means: those who benefit,
one way or the other, have to pay for the services they receive -- at
least for the direct costs (e.g., for replacements, upgrades, expansion.
Whoever is the provider has to charge for those costs - regardless of
whether it's a so-called Small Business or a NGO).
(i) Another way to look at it: most private small businesses are not
really for profit, but rather are a way to for someone to generate
self-employment income, i.e., the small business is not expecting to
generate revenue for share-holders or interest for capital-investment.
(j) This makes the Northern distinction between small business (for
profit) and NGO (charity) -- found in many fund-applications of World
Bank, Regional Development Banks and Big national Donor Organizations --
not only incorrect but counterproductive. (In the Southern context,
aquiring sustainability means going into business and charging fees,
just like any other business).
(k) With respect to national public funds: assignment of extremely scare
public funds to subsidize ICT4poor seems reasonable and ethical if and
only if using ICT vs. other means will save money. Example: a Nicaraguan
Teacher is paid roughly 0.58 US$ per class-lesson assuming
class-frequencies of 35 and more. Operation of 1 single PC costs roughly
the same per hour. Nicaragua has a recognized deficit of some 10,000
primary and secondary teachers in public education, mainly due to budget
limits. Under these circumstances, spending 1 single US$ (or asking the
parents to pay) to sustain a School-computer is not only a waste but
anti-ethical.
(l) Corolary from a-k: the usage of ICT in the South can only be
sustained if it provides measurable economic benefit, either in form of
services directly for end-users, or in the form of reduced costs (or
extended coverage) compared with traditional approaches to providing the
same or similar services.

Having said this, here are my answers:

 KEY QUESTIONS:

 1. What specific elements does a policy environment need in order to
 encourage the private sector to expand access to poor, isolated,
 underserved areas? Where do such policies exist?

Drop the artificial distinction between for benefit NGOs and for
profit micro and small enterprises.

 2. What lessons have we learned about the risks and rewards of creating
 public-private partnerships to expand access to the underserved? Where
 have these lessons been applied, and where have they worked?

Assume that, unless there is a clear benefit for the public sector, as
explained above, public spending in PPP must and will tend to 0. Thus,
the contibutions will be only for limited administrative costs,
administrative and policy support.

 3. What are specific, unexploited opportunities for public-private
 partnerships to expand access to the underserved? Please provide
 examples where these opportunities can be exploited effectively.

Use smallest-scale bids for local would-be service providers, open to
NGOs and small businesses. Treat both as part of the local
micro/small/medium-enterprise environment, and provide support, etc.,
to both that are normally given to any of these types of enterprises.

 4. What concrete lessons have we learned about stimulating/supporting
 local businesses to extend access to the underserved? Please be
 specific. Where have these lessons been applied effectively?

If you don't do as expressed above, realize that the utmost probability
is that your (donor) project will be history as soon as you stop
throwing in money. (You have the odds of the experiences of thousands of
Tele- and Info-centers against you).




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Re: [GKD-DOTCOM] How Much Bandwidth is Necessary?

2003-11-07 Thread Cornelio Hopmann
I would like to throw in my 20 ounces of salt ... and support Pam
McLean.

Stories from my life:

When changing the German National Research Center for Computing in 1985
for the Engineering University of Nicaragua I felt like I was
transported to the moon - dark side. Whereas in Germany I had already
access to uunet and email, a simple letter exchange from Nicaragua back
to Germany required 3-6 weeks.

Therefore I was extremely happy when I succeded in 1988 to connect by
long distance phone calls (Nicaragua--Vermont) 3 times a day Nicaragua
as Blue Internet Node (.ni) to UUNET...Suddenly affordable turn around
time was 48 hours -instead of 3 weeks- and more over the usenet
Newsgroups provided an excellent mechanism for getting help from
technical communities and their volunteers. (all by phone-calls and
compressed email transfer).

In 1994 we went online as a country (!!) sharing with Costa Rica a 64K
link (!) to the IX in Miami. Again a substantial change as from there on
we had not to pay for connection time -as in the phone-times- but rather
the limit of what is transferable was defined by mean time between
failure ie. it was possible to send everything (or to get everything)
if only the transmision-time did not exceed a couple of hours. We even
had software to schedule up/down-loads to low-traffic hours during the
night. (In that respect: there are hundreds of proven solutions still
around from those times where Usenet was a Dial-Up connected Network,
yet covering the whole globe with already hundreds of thousands of users
and hundreds of nodes. Many of those are still shipped as unknown parts
of FreeBSD or Linux with BSD compatible solutions, such that there is no
need to re-invent the wheel. These include Batched Mail-transfer not the
extremely resource intensive SMTP peer-to-peer email. Scheduled
transfers, the whole usenet-news mechanism with decentralized
multi-origin feeds yet locally made consistent etc. etc. etc.)

Obviously today  with a Cablemodem at my homeoffice -still in Nicaragua-
and effective 8-9 KB/s it's nice to chat with my son using WEB-cam (He
is on a 7 month visit to Germany). Likewise downloading 20 MB in minutes
facilitates ... but it's only a gradual change compared with the jumps
before.

Concluding Remarks: If WiFi and other Broadband Technologies cut
connection costs substantially, they may be extremely useful. However I
suspect -except true Broadband online comunication- that in 99% of the
cases a mix between distributing bulk information using DVD/RW as media
and combining it with a low-bandwidth connection will solve the problem.
(As an example: communication of medical information from remote places
can be split into burning lots of Info onto an DVD/RW and have it
shipped by what ever means are available combined with text-chat with
the counseling central hospital once the DVD arrived there. Assume you
get 3.6 GB of information this way in 12 hours to the hospital, it would
need almost 9 hours to send the same content through a 1 Megabit/second
direct connection).

Likewise 99% of eLearning-materials can be shipped as DVD/RW -as it does
not change day by day- and then locally combined with either
character-email or character-chat.

Hence: if the alternative is to connect many (and through-out the
country) by low-bandwidth or a few with megabyte links, go for the
first. The latter will come -almost by itself- as technology costs fall
and demand increases.


Yours

Cornelio






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Re: [GKD-DOTCOM] Bringing Connectivity to Under-Served Communities

2003-10-31 Thread Cornelio Hopmann
Dear GKD Colleagues,

Jean-Marie Blanchard wrote:

 Main barriers to Internet penetration are identified as: lack of Telecom
 infrastructure, limitation of population income, not adequate enough
 content and applications, lack of local expertise and population
 awarenessAlcatel is participating in a lot of field experiments, all
 demonstrating that most of these limiting issues could be fixed,
 provided a relevant approach is followed. For example, funding of
 network infrastructure construction is quite solved when project
 profitability is proven thanks to offering useful end-user services with
 high local added value; so, it becomes possible to attract potential
 investors; moreover, Internet illiterates and lowest income people could
 afford connectivity thanks to community centers. So, universal access to
 Internet can be no more a dream!

My apologies but this is a circular argumentation.

Jean-Marie starts off by saying at first that there is insufficient
infrastructure, continuing then that there is limited income, not enough
content and applications, no local expertise, no awareness. In any other
field of market-economy the straight-forward conclusion would be that
you try to sell a useless product and that therefore there is no demand
and hence there are neither sales nor much product to sell. (Unless
there is some strange conviction close to secular religion as if
Internet penetration as such constitutes something desirable - despite
that it's apparently of no valuable use).

Please don't misunderstand me: I was an Internet-pioneer already en
1988, long before the Internet-hype started and I'm still almost
fulltime engaged in promoting appropriate use of Internet in a
not-so-developed country, Nicaragua. Yet I would insist that -- as in
any market -- the starting point should be real needs (i.e. things that
can be better solved or addressed using among other
Internet-technologies). Better includes more efficiency - economically
- but by no means is limited to more efficiency. 


 In Saint-Louis (Senegal), one pediatrician serves more than ten thousand
 children. Here, the experimental project uses the Internet as a bridge
 between the patients (a group of one thousand infants) and the doctor.
 
 The weight of a child can be considered a key health indicator. It is
 measured twice a week by weight collectors, local women equipped with
 scales to weigh babies and a laptop computer to collect data. The
 measurements are then uploaded to the pediatrician's database via the
 Internet. Within five minutes, the doctor is able to detect which
 children have odd weight curves and require further attention. When that
 happens, he sends an e-mail to the weight collector, who in turn informs
 the family that the baby needs medical attention.


Just counter-productive examples: your Tele-doctor is counter-productive
for Public Health Education because instead of providing the local
weighers with pen and each parent with a chart where they jointly put
the weight-measure and compare it against standard-curves - and by doing
this increase Health Awareness not only for the parents - you just
electronify the very old fashioned wise man, who - only God knows how
- is capable to predict which child is going to fall ill and which not.
And as the poor and illiterate paid the wise man a couple of thousand
years ago when he predicted seasons and eclipses, they now pay for
health-predictions ... where in both cases if they were not kept
ignorant they wouldn't pay a cent.


Yours,

Cornelio




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[GKD] Literate Societies and the Internet

2002-08-14 Thread Cornelio Hopmann

Dear all,

Just as I had a recent presentation on the topic in El Salvador (for
directors of primary and secondary schools, I'll forward the ppt in
Spanish to whomever likes a copy), I would like to describe another pitfall
or mistake committed many, many times by people from the north.

They still do - as I did when arriving in the south 17 years ago - assume
that the northern way of a literate society is the standard prototype of
social organization, something that is wrong, completely wrong.

What means literate society? It means a society in which - lieu of a very
low rate of functional analphabets - social organization can be based on
written rules and  written communication. The literate society is a
rather recent achievement of the north, as it goes far beyond individual
literacy - you need at least 2 generations of ordinary literacy before
you can switch your social system.

When you don't have written rules and written communications, you do
need other means to organize a society, namely direct personal relations
by which small groups organize themselves and in which you have to build
chains of intermediates to guarantee society coherence at large. (Most
parachuters from the north misunderstand these necessities at the
beginning only as nepotism, clientelism and so forth).

Internet has a literate society as original background and - to my
experience - simply will not work as expected if you transfer it into
the context of an illiterate society. More, as stated above, the switch
is a generational process not something that can just be pushed within a
few years. It's not a question of local content, cheap access or
Simputers - none of these changes the context.

Internet is therefore useless in an illiterate society? It is not, if
properly deployed. First and most important the literate-illiterate
frontier has to be an explicit part of the design  (e.g.. combinations
with local Radio or local TV are not just less costly alternatives, they
are ideal elements to bridge between both worlds). Similar others - like
local technicians, local health- and education-personal, lawyers or
law-procedure-helpers, more advanced merchants, religious ministers
etc.- may act - as they do already in the pre-internet world - as
bridging agents. And second - that was my key-point in the above
presentation - intellectual skill training aimed to the internet-context
and -usage but executed using just pencil and paper may help to prepare
the next generation both for the literate society and Internet usage.
(e.g. why not setup a paper-mail system within a school, where using
invented nick-names, chain-letters, a physical mail-box and a pin-board,
kids and teachers are trained in using written communication - instead
of the accustomed oral  direct communication). Similar is true for
content-appreciation (which of the 80,000 pages Goggle returns, tells
the truth?) or introduction of written rules. Almost all
Internet-Collabra features had had there predecessors in the
pre-internet times, such that they can be implemented (or simulated)
even without any computer, or 1 local computer, or a local-only network
long, long before the Broadband-Highspeed-Multimedia Internet arrives.
(I dare to say that without this previous training the BHMI will be
useless at best).

Anyone else with similar experiences?

Cornelio




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Re: [GKD] The Great African Internet Robbery

2002-07-23 Thread Cornelio Hopmann

Philipp Schmidt wrote:

 The ARPANET, the first stage of what has grown into today's Internet,
 was implemented by the U.S. military. It was then extended to be used
 by U.S. universities mainly for research purposes. It seems that
 anybody wanting to connect to the network that was up to this point
 payed for by U.S. tax money, should cover the costs needed to do so. If
 you want to come to the party - you pay for transportation.
 
 In addition the high costs of telecommunications in Africa are mostly
 due to monopolistic structures and mismanagement and I dont think the
 U.S. is to blame for that. Please jump on me - if you have evidence
 that says otherwise - I would be more than happy to revise this opinion.

Dear Phillipp,

Have a look at the below -taken from the ITU news-server- and you'll
find that there do exist other opinions. And as you might note the US
delegation rejected even the very weak recomendation to look bilateraly
for more apropriate solutions.

By the way: an Internet-E1 connection from Nicaragua to the Backbone
somewhere in the US -- without any (!) local TELCO costs -- takes
between 9,800 to 24,000 US$ a month -- depending on the period of the
lease. This is 8 to 18 times what the same service -- no tax money
involved anymore -- costs within the US. As obvious final enduser in
Nicaragua either have to pay 8 to 18 times what they would pay in the US
or get a 8 to 18 times poorer service (means email only, no high graphic
web, no larger downloads).

As long as this situation persists, there is a unilateral tariff-barrier
which provokes in turn digital divide ... and even the most efective
local TELCO can't change it.

At the same time and applying general ITU principles, telephone traffic
is handled on shared cost base with precentages varying according to who
initated the call and who pays for it. Long distance moreover is only 3
times more expensive than same service within the US.

Cornelio

---

International Internet Connection

The discussions on this very contentious issue found a positive outcome
on the last day of the Assembly. The purpose of the recommendation is to
set out the principle according to which there should be bilateral
agreement when two providers establish a circuit between two countries
for the purpose of carrying Internet traffic. The possible need for
compensation between the providers has also been recognized. At present,
when providers install Internet circuits, they generally have a choice
between the sender-keeps-all or peering system of bilateral
connections when traffic is more or less balanced, or the asymmetrical
system whereby the initiating provider pays for the whole connection
with the other country (full-circuit cost).

The Recommendation endorsed by the WTSA, which represents a very
delicate balance between the various interests, calls for arrangements
to be negotiated and agreed upon on a commercial basis when direct
Internet links are established internationally. The Recommendation
requires only that the two providers involved reach a mutual agreement
and does not prescribe any particular formula or system, thus leaving to
providers their freedom to determine the forms or methodologies to be
used in implementing the principle.

The Recommendation, which is voluntary, suggests that parties involved
take into account the possible need for compensation for elements such
as traffic flow, number of routes, geographical coverage and the cost of
international transmission among others when negotiating such commercial
arrangements. In addition, the Assembly agreed that while international
Internet connections remain subject to commercial agreements between
operating agencies, there is a need for on-going studies in this area.
The Chairman recalled that the decision made in Montreal provided a
framework for future discussions and was therefore only the beginning of
a process where issues would be further analyzed. Two countries - the US
and Greece - made reservations and stated that they would not apply it
in their international charging arrangements.

The full text of the Recommendation can be found here:

http://www.itu.int/newsarchive/press/documents/wtsa2000rep.htm#Internation
al




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Re: [GKD] The Great African Internet Robbery

2002-07-17 Thread Cornelio Hopmann

You should be more precise:

The world except US is being ripped off by the US Telcos.

Reason: the situation you describe is true for all Internet-connections
from outside the US.

According to ITU we're talking about 500 Million (!) US$ anually at
least that US Telcos would lose (or would have to charge to their
US-clients) if the normal standard of halfway would be implemented.
Please note that this does not give only unfair advantage to US-telcos
but also unfair trading advantage to us-based companies (lower
connection costs). The issue as such is recognized by ITU, however -due
to close US-resistance as in other world organizations- not even a
recomendation to change was possible.


Cornelio



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