Re: [Goanet] Currency Values
Date: Mon, 19 Nov 2007 10:20:03 -0800 (PST) From: Mervyn Lobo <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > Mario, I have tried to make this as clear as I can, the 5.1% rate used, once again, is the privately calculated US inflation rate. No one trusts US govt numbers anymore. This is not difficult to understand, it is only difficult to accept. If you want, you can call the rate any name that is acceptable to you ;-) The name is of no concern to me. > Mario responds: > Mervyn, > The first thing one needs to do if one finds oneself in a hole is to stop digging:-)) > I went back and looked at your original response to Vivian on this subject. You said inflation in the US was running at 5.1%. Unfortunately, you also said, "As you know, the US has an unique method of measuring inflation. It does not take into account the cost of food and petrol." This suggested that you were referring to an official US inflation rate, not some private rate, because why would a private rate used in making investments exclude the cost of food and medicines. > Subsequently, you said that the 5.1% was a rate used by non-US investors in lending to US businesses. This actually made some sense. > Now you are saying your 5.1% is THE privately calculated US inflation rate, as if there is an official privately calculated US inflation rate. > Regarding your other opinions about the US, you are entitled to them. > Mervyn wrote: > All I am concerned about is using this rate to make money. > Mario responds: > Good luck. > Mervyn wrote: > PS. This is my last comment on this topic. Only you and Bibi Bhandari out of 14,000 people here have not understood my point. I can live peacefully with that success rate. > Mario responds: > You would be surprised at what we have understood:-)) > I hope you are as perspicacious at guessing the US inflation rate as you are at guessing what 14,000 Goanetters have understood, which you have no way of knowing. >
Re: [Goanet] Currency values
Mario Goveia wrote: > Even Mervyn Lobo has now confirmed that the 5.1% he > had mentioned was a rate used by non-US lenders when > making loans to American businesses, which would be a > hurdle rate that is always higher than the inflation > rate by an amount that reflects the lender's perceived > risk in the investment. BTW, we MBAs learn this stuff > in Finance-101:-)) Mario, I have tried to make this as clear as I can, the 5.1% rate used, once again, is the privately calculated US inflation rate. No one trusts US govt numbers anymore. This is not difficult to understand, it is only difficult to accept. If you want, you can call the rate any name that is acceptable to you ;-) The name is of no concern to me. All I am concerned about is using this rate to make money. Personally, I think that the US inflation rate is much higher than 5.1%. The market seems to think the same way too as evidenced by this years depreciation of the US dollar. The good folks at OPEC, the ones that have money coming out of their ears, now want to sell their oil in currencies other than the US dollar. They too have started to realize the rate the US dollar is falling in value. Mervyn3.0 PS. This is my last comment on this topic. Only you and Bibi Bhandari out of 14,000 people here have not understood my point. I can live peacefully with that success rate. Get a sneak peak at messages with a handy reading pane with All new Yahoo! Mail: http://mail.yahoo.ca
Re: [Goanet] Currency values - response to Gabe
Date: Wed, 14 Nov 2007 15:27:43 + From: "Gabe Menezes" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > Mario has claimed to be an MBA. Therefore I am taken aback that he had to resort to Google, to try and fathom out what is really going on w.r.t inflation gauging in the USA. > Mario asks: > Gabe says he is "taken aback" that I used Google. Hanh?! Does this mean I'm supposed to avoid Google to post reference materials to show that I am not making up facts in a discussion? How does this compute as we MBAs are used to saying among ourselves? :-)) > Besides, what does my MBA, which, BTW, is from the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor for those familiar with MBAs, have anything to do with the questions I raised? I did learn to use recognizable facts, to connect the dots and to support my facts and opinions with independent information. But you really don't need an MBA for that. Just common sense. > Gabe Menezes wrote: > Just this hour, Bernanke spoke in depth about trying to better achieve transparency, regarding inflation and that the Fed is working on this. > The Fed still hasn't recovered the plot: core vs. headline inflation again. > Let me quote from the Testimony of Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives July 18, 2007 > "Sizable increases in food and energy prices have boosted overall inflation and eroded real incomes in recent months--both unwelcome developments. > I believe that the interest rates in the USA, do not fully reflect the inflation rate; also the Fed is under sever constraints politically and had to cut interest rates to accommodate the fall out debacle of the Sub Prime loans. > Mario asks: > What do the comments summarized above have anything to do with the information that I questioned in my post of November 12 that US inflation was 5.1% and that the US routinely excluded the cost of food and gasoline when calculating inflation? See, http://lists.goanet.org/pipermail/goanet-goanet.org/2007-November/064664.html > Even Mervyn Lobo has now confirmed that the 5.1% he had mentioned was a rate used by non-US lenders when making loans to American businesses, which would be a hurdle rate that is always higher than the inflation rate by an amount that reflects the lender's perceived risk in the investment. BTW, we MBAs learn this stuff in Finance-101:-)) > I also showed that the US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes inflation rates with food and gasoline included as well as an adjusted rate that excludes food and gasoline. See box in upper right hand in, http://www.bls.gov/cpi/#data > So, Mervyn was not wrong; he was only half right because he did not seem to be aware of the inflation rate that included food and gasoline. > Gabe Menezes wrote: > Mario should know this, as his neighbour hood is one of the worst hit areas in the USA, with run down buildings and distressed 'Repo sales signs'. An USD300,000 home is a substantial home, by any measure in Toledo; the equivalent ?150,000 would at best buy a studio flat (one bedroom) in London. > Mario responds: > Again, what does the condition of my "neighbor hood" have to do with the topic under discussion, even if these gratuitous comments about my "neighbor hood" were accurate, which they are not??? > Besides none of my neighbors are hoods:-)) > Getting back to Gabe's comments, how could anyone who claims to have "acute analytical skills" compare a mid-sized mid-Western city in one country with a national capital like London in another country? An MBA would never do that. Wouldn't a more appropriate comparison use cities like Washington, DC, or New York City, when making comparisons with London? > BTW, I love London where the beer is warm and they pay absurd prices to live in quaint, dingy old tenements with a lot of history behind them. I mean a LOT of history:-)) > Gabe Menezes wrote: > So much for the cock and bull story, as espoused by Mario, that the poor in the USA are the equivalent, if not better off than the middle class European. > Mario responds: > The alleged "cock and bull story" that Gabe is referring to has not been part of this discussion, until Gabe has now made it a part. > However, anyone familiar with the US and Europe would know that many people considered "poor" in America do enjoy a standard of living that is at least as good as that of many middle-income Europeans. Actually, there is no need to believe me, or anyone who makes "not-so-acute" analytical comparisons - come see for yourself. If you disagree, fine. You are entitled to your own opinion. I am entitled to mine. > My advice to those who read critical comments about the USA, especially by those who had applied for residency in the US and been rejected, is to ask yourself why the US has been for centuries, and continues to be today, a magnet for immigrants from around the world. We have somewhere between 12 and 20 million illegal aliens floa
Re: [Goanet] Currency values
Mario Goveia wrote: > So, let me get back to safer ground by using the > official US government statistical information since > the entire financial world uses this as their primary > reference on information about the US, other than > those who confuse US government statistics with US > government policy or pronouncements by US politicians > that they may agree or disagree with. Mario, The worthiness of official US Govt info took a nose dive after they announced that Iraq had WMD and was ready to attack in 45 minutes. Since then, no one trusts their info. Financial firms are collecting their own US inflation numbers to make long term decisions. Secondly, the worth of the US dollar is falling because: 1) Inflation is at a benign 2.8% 2) Inflation really is double that rate. You take you pick on which one you want to believe. In the meantime, Goans and everyone else whose income is linked to the US dollar are scrambling for ways to de-link themselves from the scourge. Kuwait, Kuwait of all countries is the latest to de-link their peg to the US currency. In effect, they are going to repay their US debts at cheaper exchange rates. > Most investors make and lose money no matter what happens in any economy. This one is hilarious. Thanks. Mervyn3.0 Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it, misdiagnosing it, and then misapplying the wrong remedies. - Marx - Be smarter than spam. See how smart SpamGuard is at giving junk email the boot with the All-new Yahoo! Mail. Click on Options in Mail and switch to New Mail today or register for free at http://mail.yahoo.ca
Re: [Goanet] Currency values
* GOANET C * O * M * M * U * N * I * T * Y E * V * E * N * T * Xavier Center of Historical Research presents HISTORY HOUR TOPIC: Waste Wise - An Interactive Awareness Presentation on Waste Management in Goa SPEAKER: Clinton Vaz - November 16, 2007 - 5:30pm VISIT: http://tinyurl.com/222757 Date: Tue, 13 Nov 2007 11:37:15 -0800 (PST) From: Mervyn Lobo <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > Mario, I do believe your absence from Goanet has done us all good. > Mario responds: > Unfortunately, my absence has also enabled some to post erroneous information unchallenged. > Mervyn wote: > The first link to numbers you provided below is not directly from a Govt department. I guess you, like others here, do not trust US govt info anymore? http://www.inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflation_Rate/HistoricalInflation.aspx > Mario responds: > I see you have decided to defend the indefensible, without providing us with the source of YOUR unrecognizable US inflation rate of 5.1%. > To begin with, contrary to your snide insinuation, I do trust such US government information which is produced by professionals with no political axe to grind. > What difference does it make if I use official US government information directly or indirectly? > If you had done even a little research you would have found that the source I used did in fact used the US Department of Labor, Bureau of Statistics as their source, as can be seen by comparing their chart of Consumer Price Indices with the one in the following US government URL: > ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/cpi/cpiai.txt > Mervyn writes: > It is always interesting to read what official govt policy is. Some people go along happily with what their president/govt tells them. These people are usually the ones that pay for the mistakes of politicians. Others, who can monitor the effects of govt policy, stand to profit from the same mistakes. Let me give you an example. At every chance he gets, the US Sec of Treasury stands up and says that the US has an official "strong dollar" policy. Everyone who lives outside the US and who deals with US dollars knows that the US dollar is getting weaker by the day. There is money to be made with this info. > Mario responds: > In addition to government policies, I also find it interesting to read the various opinions about such policies by disparate individuals, each from their own bias and point of view. > However, while everyone is entitled to their own opinions, they are not entitled to their own facts. > None of your commentary above has anything to do with the unrecognizable inflation rate you published or what the US includes or excludes in calculating inflation rates. Most investors make and lose money no matter what happens in any economy. Most will never brag about investments where they lose money. > Mervyn wrote: > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Consumer_Price_Index > If you do not have the time to read the entire page, I understand. However, let me know your thoughts after you read the following excerpt from the link. > "The core CPI index excludes goods with high price volatility, such as food and energy. This measure of core inflation systematically excludes food and energy prices because, historically, they have been highly volatile and non-systemic. More specifically, food and energy prices are widely thought to be subject to large changes that often fail to persist and do not represent relative price changes. In many instances, large movements in food and energy prices arise because of supply disruptions such as drought or OPEC-led cutbacks in production." > Mario responds: > After remarking somewhat critically that I had not used official US government information directly, which I had used indirectly through an independent inflation-monitoring website, you are now curiously referring me to an unofficial free-for-all website called Wikipedia where one has to be very careful of the information since individuals are allowed to edit much of the content and may bring their personal biases to what they write. > So, let me get back to safer ground by using the official US government statistical information since the entire financial world uses this as their primary reference on information about the US, other than those who confuse US government statistics with US government policy or pronouncements by US politicians that they may agree or disagree with. > There are many uses for the information that the US government produces, some you may be unfamiliar with. For example, Consumer Price Indices and their growth rates are published with several different adjustments made for various purposes. > I refer you to the official US Depa
Re: [Goanet] Currency values
On 12/11/2007, Mario Goveia <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Mario responds: > > > I was surprised to read this as I did not recognize > two of the assertions made therein: a) that inflation > in the US is running at 5.1%, and b) that the US > excludes the cost of food and gasoline (petrol) in > calculating US inflation. RESPONSE: Mario has claimed to be an MBA. Therefore I am taken aback that he had to resort to Google, to try and fathom out what is really going on w.r.t inflation gauging in the USA. Both the USA and the UK rely on a narrower gauge for inflation, the reasons stated, that both food and energy are volatile items. I saw an T.V. programme last night stipulating that, if true inflation rate was given, then the Governments would be for bigger pay rise increase demands. Just this hour, Bernanke spoke in depth about trying to better achieve transparency, regarding inflation and that the Fed is working on this. I am neither an economist nor a C.A.; I believe though that I have acute analytical skills. For the sake of good order and clarification, I have picked up an article in the F.T. which should, hopefully shed light on the subject being debated:- The Fed still hasn't recovered The Fed still hasn't recovered the plot: core vs. headline inflation again Oh boy… Let me quote from the Testimony of Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives July 18, 2007 "Sizable increases in food and energy prices have boosted overall inflation and eroded real incomes in recent months--both unwelcome developments. As measured by changes in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE inflation), inflation ran at an annual rate of 4.4 percent over the first five months of this year, a rate that, if maintained, would clearly be inconsistent with the objective of price stability (footnote in original: Despite the recent surge, total PCE inflation is 2.3 percent over the past twelve months). Because monetary policy works with a lag, however, policymakers must focus on the economic outlook. Food and energy prices tend to be quite volatile, so that, looking forward, core inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) may be a better gauge than overall inflation of underlying inflation trends. Core inflation has moderated slightly over the past few months, with core PCE inflation coming in at an annual rate of about 2 percent so far this year." Here we have the Chairman of the Fed reassuring us that inflation is under control because, when you strip out the items in the price index with the highest inflation rates, the inflation rate of the remainder is only slightly above target. ends For a full read please click on the to the URL below: http://blogs.ft.com/maverecon/2007/07/the-fed-still-h.html I believe that the interest rates in the USA, do not fully reflect the inflation rate; also the Fed is under sever constraints politically and had to cut interest rates to accommodate the fall out debacle of the Sub Prime loans. Mario should know this, as his neighbour hood is one of the worst hit areas in the USA, with run down buildings and distressed 'Repo sales signs'. An USD300,000 home is a substantial home, by any measure in Toledo; the equivalent £150,000 would at best buy a studio flat ( one bedroom) in London. So much for the cock and bull story, as espoused by Mario, that the poor in the USA are the equivalent, if not better off than the middle class European. -- DEV BOREM KORUM. Gabe Menezes. London, England
Re: [Goanet] Currency values
Mario Goveia wrote: > I was surprised to read this as I did not recognize > two of the assertions made therein: a) that inflation > in the US is running at 5.1%, and b) that the US > excludes the cost of food and gasoline (petrol) in > calculating US inflation. Mario, I do believe your absence from Goanet has done us all good. It is so nice to see you sticking only to the subject mater here. The first link to numbers you provided below is not directly from a Govt department. I guess you, like others here, do not trust US govt info anymore? http://www.inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflation_Rate/HistoricalInflation.aspx > Frequently asked questions from the US Bureau of Labor > Statistics about how the US consumer price index is > calculated: http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpifaq.htm#Question_7 It is always interesting to read what official govt policy is. Some people go along happily with what their president/govt tells them. These people are usually the ones that pay for the mistakes of politicians. Others, who can monitor the effects of govt policy, stand to profit from the same mistakes. Let me give you an example. At every chance he gets, the US Sec of Treasury stands up and says that the US has an official "strong dollar" policy. Everyone who lives outside the US and who deals with US dollars knows that the US dollar is getting weaker by the day. There is money to be made with this info. Goans who have their salaries tied to the value of the US dollar are hurting. Those who are not, are enjoying boom times. Unfortunately, I do not have a site where you can read about this phenomena. I do however have a site that gives the basic info about how inflation is calculated in the US. It also gives some criticism (not by me ;-) on why the method is less than perfect. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Consumer_Price_Index If you do not have the time to read the entire page, I understand. However, let me know your thoughts after you read the following excerpt from the link. "The core CPI index excludes goods with high price volatility, such as food and energy. This measure of core inflation systematically excludes food and energy prices because, historically, they have been highly volatile and non-systemic. More specifically, food and energy prices are widely thought to be subject to large changes that often fail to persist and do not represent relative price changes. In many instances, large movements in food and energy prices arise because of supply disruptions such as drought or OPEC-led cutbacks in production." While it may be difficult for the US govt to track food and energy prices, it is not difficult for me. Every time I am in the US, I get charged more for the same goods and services. I would not notice a 3% increase in prices. However, I do notice larger increases. For example, I remember paying less than $1 per gallon for petrol when I was in US college in the US in the 1990's. Last summer on my way to Disneyland, I paid $3.20 per gallon. Non-US financial institutions lending money to US businesses are using a 5.1% inflation rate to see if projects are viable. These are the institutions that do not have a financial crises on their hands today. Mervyn3.0 PS. Taking about Disneyland, how about the following? Hard to fathom. Disneyland Park in Anaheim, Calif., plans to close down the It's a Small World attraction for a 10-month renovation because the waterway boats are getting stuck. Loads that are heavier than those anticipated 43 years ago, when the ride opened, are causing the craft to bottom out. When there's a stuck boat, staff must go back into the attraction and lighten the load by asking one or two passengers to leave the boat. This is not happening because today's park patrons are getting fatter, Disneyland insists. The boats get stuck because "layers and layers" of thick glass-fibre have built up where maintenance teams have repeatedly repaired them. To avoid any hard feelings, customers who are asked to leave a boat are presented with food vouchers. Source: Los Angeles Times Ask a question on any topic and get answers from real people. Go to Yahoo! Answers and share what you know at http://ca.answers.yahoo.com
Re: [Goanet] Currency values
Vivian A. DSouza wrote: > And what is this constant harping on the under-valued rupee? > The rupee has appreciated at least 25 percent against several > major currencies in the past year, and is bound to appreciate > further as the Indian economy booms. The undervalued rupee > is a mixed blessing. On the positive side, it contributes to the > export boom that India has experienced in recent years. As > the rupee appreciates, Indian Goods and Servides will no longer > enjoy the advantage they have had so far in the international > marketplace. On the negative side it brings out the jealousy, > amongst those who make a living in the local economy, as > they see those who have returned from abroad able to afford > things that the locals cannot. That is life., But in the not too > distant future the disparity in incomes is bound to dissipate, > as it has already begun to do. Bwana D'Souza, Until recently, the US dollar was a well managed currency. It was in short supply and thus valuable. We all know that when you buy a unit of a country's currency, you are buying a share of that country. It is similar to buying a share in a company. The less shares there are in the company, the more likely they will be worth a lot. In the past few years, the current US administration has been spending money like drunken sailors. Worse yet is when they ran out of money, they started to print more. Last week, communist China told the US that if it did not stop the weakness in the US currency. China would switch its foreign exchange reserves to other currencies. Saudi Arabia sent the same message. So did Sudan. Inflation in the US is running at 5.1%. As you know, the US has an unique method of measuring inflation. It does not take into account the cost of food and petrol. Maybe this is because US residents are not concerned about those two components. Pensioners living in the US are faced with the prospect of losing half the purchasing power of their pensions if they live over ten years. India on the other hand, has suddenly found its currency appreciating. In part because its economy is expanding at a breathing taking rate and partly because the US dollar is sinking like a stone. Indian businesses dealing with US customers will soon feel the pain. As you have correctly pointed out, Goans working in the gulf will be in the same situation soon. On the other hand, Goans working in India will get wages that will soon close the gap between their cousins working in the gulf. Mervyn3.0 PS. The depth of the US dollar crises finally hit me yesterday. I run the office pool for the local lotto. When I went to count the money of the people who had paid for tickets, I found someone had cheated me. Someone had slipped me two US 25 cent coins. Those coins were worth only 24 cents Canadian. I felt violated. I felt depressed. And especially so because after years of me slipping Canadian coins in the US, Americans were now (forced into?) doing the same trick on Canadians. Ask a question on any topic and get answers from real people. Go to Yahoo! Answers and share what you know at http://ca.answers.yahoo.com