M-TH: Some tenative observations
A few tentative observations on East Timorese developments. It is clear that the imperialist forces that have descended on East Timor to ostensibly protect the civilian population against the pro-independence "militia" are a mere pretext for direct imperialist intervention to protect and advance the class interests of the imperialist bourgeoisie. Now that the cold war period is effectively over imperialism no longer relies in the same way on the kind of regime that has ruled over Indonesia. Consequently it can suffer a facade of East Timorese independence involving formal democratic structures. Imperialism has directly intervened in East Timor in order to protect and develop its oppressive hold over the world. East Timor will be effectively another "invisible" colony of imperialism. Australian capitalism is required to do Washington's work for a variety of reasons. One of them is Beijing. If Washington was to walk into East Timor as the main player China would become increasingly worried concerning the former's strategic intentions. China is highly sensitive to any direct intervention by Washington in that part of the world. Consequently direct military intervention by the Americans would most probably lead to a deterioration in relations between Beijing and Washington. At a time when relations between them have already deteriorated after its intervention in Kosova and its bombing of the Chinese embassy Washington would merely reduce the options available. Some other powers in that part of the world would experience greater uneasiness with a relatively large scale American military intervention too. Any direct military intervention by the US might encourage closer co-operation between Russia and China. Already these two powers have been drawing closer together in the face of the growing power of American imperialism. Direct military intervention in East Timor would only encourage Russia/ Chinese unity. Furthermore itmight also lead togreater unity between these two powers and other lesser powers under the threat froman increasingly powerfulinterventionist Washington. Consequently Washington has to avoid making moves that would foster unity around a Russian/Chineseaxis. In view of this the ideal player for the role of chief bourgeois crusaderis Australia. It is an "Asian" power and has been conducting itself over the last while --before the currentdifficulty- within that context rather than as a Western power within Asia. Jakarta, on the other hand, if forced could play the Asian card and thereby increase bourgeois instability in that region. This could only but upset Washington strategic plans. This is what Washington fears even though it is a highly unlikely scenario. Jakarta can play this card by making things difficult for Cosgrove in East Timor through its deployment and reactivation of --its Trojan horse-- the "militia" in East Timor. By re-activating this force it can make things so difficult for Australia as toundermine its ability to impose and maintain imperialist stability in East Timor. As the situation there deteriorates --getting increasingly messy-- Canberra would be forced to pour more and more troops into the island. This force the Australian bourgeoisie to introduce conscription. This development together with the body bags returning home could adversely impact on the Australian regime. The conditions for the emergence of a mass anti-war protests might be created. There is always the remote possibility then that East Timor could lead to growing bourgeois instability in Australia itself and the consequent radicalisation of Australian politics. Apart from all this Australia would be effectively finished as a regional power --for some time-- capable of conducting the current kind of intervention in that region. Obviously neither Canberra nor Washington would be pleased with such a state of affairs. This would significantly upset Washington's strategic plans since no longer could it hope to use Australia to serve as its lieutenant in that region. Canberra's loss of credibility would further destabilise the situation in that part of the world and correspondingly strengthen China's regional status. Furthermore Washington, under such circumstances, would be forced to intervene militarily in East Timor thereby exposing its naked imperialist aggressive intentions to other powers in that region thereby prompting them to seek protection under a Russia/China umbrella. The one thing Washington does not want is a Russian/Chinese bloc that includes other Asian powers. To avoid this Washington might be prepared to hand back East Timor to Indonesia. At present the main danger facing many powers in the world is the growing power of US imperialism in the absence of an effective counterweight as the Soviet Union had been until its demise. With the Soviet "menace" gone it is becoming increasingly clear that the American "menace" is
Re: M-TH: Some tenative observations
G'day Thaxists, George reckons: A few tentative observations on East Timorese developments. It is clear that the imperialist forces that have descended on East Timor to ostensibly protect the civilian population against the pro-independence "militia" are a mere pretext for direct imperialist intervention to protect and advance the class interests of the imperialist bourgeoisie. [Yeah, but they ARE protecting the civilian population, George! If you're going to argue against intervening in East Timor, you'd have to select a domain (spatial and/or temporal) within which things would probably turn out better if outside forces did not intervene. I'm not sure a bit of outside intervention might not have been the go back in late 1975 ... but then, I'm not sure a simple refusal of permission by the USA wouldn't have been more than enough (a million Iraqis would still be alive if the US had simply said 'no' to Saddam in July 1991 ... but then they'd be alive if the US hadn't killed 'em, too). I just think we have to be context-specific when we analyse possible interventions by primarily imperialist forces, that's all.] Now that the cold war period is effectively over imperialism no longer relies in the same way on the kind of regime that has ruled over Indonesia. Consequently it can suffer a facade of East Timorese independence involving formal democratic structures. [The Djakarta line on 'voluntary integration' has been no less a facade.] Imperialism has directly intervened in East Timor in order to protect and develop its oppressive hold over the world. East Timor will be effectively another "invisible" colony of imperialism. [Which is what it's been since late '75, before late '75, and was always going to be in 2000.] Australian capitalism is required to do Washington's work for a variety of reasons. One of them is Beijing. If Washington was to walk into East Timor as the main player China would become increasingly worried concerning the former's strategic intentions. China is highly sensitive to any direct intervention by Washington in that part of the world. Consequently direct military intervention by the Americans would most probably lead to a deterioration in relations between Beijing and Washington. At a time when relations between them have already deteriorated after its intervention in Kosova and its bombing of the Chinese embassy Washington would merely reduce the options available. [Yeah, this makes a bit of sense. The US is on the nose in many a polity, I think. Mind you, by not helping an enthusiastic hand, Uncle Sam has annoyed a lot of other people, too. It can be lonely at the top.] Some other powers in that part of the world would experience greater uneasiness with a relatively large scale American military intervention too. Any direct military intervention by the US might encourage closer co-operation between Russia and China. Already these two powers have been drawing closer together in the face of the growing power of American imperialism. [Reckon a Russia/China co-operation would be pretty popular in those countries, and is effectively there already in many ways. Reckon there are decisive limits to this, though. Those countries' elites and their aspirations are inextricably tied to the USA.] In view of this the ideal player for the role of chief bourgeois crusader is Australia. It is an "Asian" power and has been conducting itself over the last while --before the current difficulty- within that context rather than as a Western power within Asia. [Well, I don't know too many Australians who think we're 'Asian', and I don't know ANY 'Asians' who think we are.] Jakarta, on the other hand, if forced could play the Asian card and thereby increase bourgeois instability in that region. This could only but upset Washington strategic plans. This is what Washington fears even though it is a highly unlikely scenario. Jakarta can play this card by making things difficult for Cosgrove in East Timor through its deployment and reactivation of --its Trojan horse-- the "militia" in East Timor. By re-activating this force it can make things so difficult for Australia as to undermine its ability to impose and maintain imperialist stability in East Timor. [I guess if the military get desperate about their capacity to bend the political process to their will - and I think they are pretty much so already, after that sterling demo in Djakarta yesterday - they might see if they can heat things up in East Timor, get some 'peacekeepers' to chase militia people on to West Timorese soil, whip up a bit of nationalistic fervour vis the 'aggressor', and go into martial law mode. I also note that most of the TNI are still openly unfriendly to the visitors - they are East Timorese members of the Indonesian military, and they could easily turn belligerent if they thought a little logistic support was on offer from the old mother country. But I'm sure
