Re: [Marxism-Thaxis] Precis on theories of capitalist crisis
CeJ [EMAIL PROTECTED] 03/23/2008 1:05 AM Precis on theories of capitalist crisis by economist That wasn't very precise or concise or incisive. American 'capitalism'--finance capitalism--was reporting huge profits almost right up until the onset of the crisis late last summer. I should think Marx, Engels or Lenin would be looking at what precipitated the crisis and what salient conditions applied at that time. ^ CB: I don't that Marx , Engels or Lenin analyzed what precipitated specific profit crises. Do you have an example of one of them analyzing a specific crisis ? ^ One complication to the notion of 'finance capitalism' is just about everyone does it. When Microsoft plots to take over Yahoo, it is really investing and speculating for profits. As are all the people at Yahoo. And Google and so on and son on. So all companies speculate financially in order to try and make still more yet profits, outside of any drive to expand their productive capacity to make things or deliver services. Just one example, there is a company here in Japan called Yakult. It makes fermented milk beverages and owns a baseball team. Now most Japanese companies that export try to hedge currencies--that is speculate on currency movements--to make money. But Yakult isn't really a major exporter. Still they got started in this by justifying it as efforts to prevent losses on currency movements (since currency movements also affect domestic producers, since so much of what is put into production is from imported commodities). But once the financial division started making money, this safety function was lost. They weren't playing dollar-yen currency markets as a hedge against losses on the commodities they bought to produce fermented milk beverages. They were gambling in an attempt to make more money than fermented milk beverages make. So Yakult lost a billion dollars on currency speculation back in the 1990s. That might seem small by today's figures, but it does show just how deep most companies are into financial speculation as a result of hedging strategies and 'sound' financial investing. For companies like GE or AIG or Berkshire Hathaway, it is the most important part of their reason for being. The same could be said to quite an extent about American automobile manufacturers, whose credit divisions and pension funds are the jewels in their tarnished crown. At any rate, somewhere between the US stock markets testing new highs in early 2007 and the summer, what happened? Was it the interest rate increases? One thing that stood out for me was the way hugely leveraged (indebted) takeover deals fell through. The principals couldn't get the usual line of still ever yet more credit to make the total. Meanwhile, as the stock markets and the value of the dollar faltered, speculative finance piled onto oil futures, gold, agricultural commodities, and seemed to make short term bets on the stock markets. If there is a psychological shift, are US allies and satellites in Europe, the Gulf States, and the trade surplus countries of E. Asia NOT investing in US financial instruments? Are they looking at the US budgets, the deficits, the mounting war and occupation debts, are they looking at all that and sensing that Rome is ripe to fall? The crisis in profits amongst the speculators would seem to be that they can't make money when interest rates go up. Yet as Greenspan and Bernanke must now sense, if Bernanke raises interest rates to stem core inflation (not the unprecedented, bubble-driven inflation of real estate assets), the whole system comes unhinged. What seems to be happening now is similar to what happened in Japan at the end of the real estate bubble there. Interest rates rose til the bubble burst, and then interest rates went down to almost nothing but analysts said the economy was stagnant because either the banks were not lending or the individuals (and that would include companies under capitalist law) were not borrowing. Some things apply to Japan that you might not find elsewhere. For example, low interest rates on bank and postal savings translate into lower consumption because so much of the workforce is older and even retired. When bank and postal savings account interest rates were 6.5%, they had more disposable income to spend. Now with interest rates at near zero and staying that way, they and their households sit on large amounts of savings that earn almost nothing. Bernanke seems to have bet that he can cut interest rates to very low levels in the way Japan has for the past 15 years but without his having to deal with the long-running Volker-Greenspan bubbles. And that is one of the problems. The other problem is the US and the dollar are not Japan and the yen (though Japan's crisis did hurt much of the rest of Asia in 1996-8). Plus the current US is strung out on credit and deficits and uncontrolled spending is so many ways that is fairly easy to think this could be THE crisis, not just
[Marxism-Thaxis] O and racism
Of course, the term racist should be used here. Obama has racist obstacle in his path. He took a tack of transcending race as the only way he could remotely get masses of white votes. Charles Racial problems transcend Wright By JIM VANDEHEI JOHN F. HARRIS | 3/18/08 8:16 PM EST Text Size: Recent controversy and response show that Barack Obama knows how much peril his candidacy faces. Photo: AP Barack Obama’s plunge into the race issue in Philadelphia on Tuesday at times sounded more like a sermon than a speech. But beneath the personal anecdotes and historical allusions, it was a delicately crafted political statement — one that makes clear that Obama understands exactly how much peril he is facing. Even before the Jeremiah Wright controversy erupted in recent days, voting patterns in several states made clear — for all the glow of Obama’s reputation as a bridge-builder — how uneven his record really is when it comes to transcending deep racial divides. The Philadelphia speech offered lines calculated to reassure all the groups with which he is most vulnerable. For working-class whites — whose coolness toward Obama helped tilt Ohio to Hillary Rodham Clinton — Obama spoke with understanding about why they dislike busing and affirmative action. “Like the anger in the black community, these resentments aren’t always shared in polite company,” he said. See Also GOP sees Rev. Wright as pathway to victory Speech doesn't pander; does it explain? Obama's message resonates For Hispanics, who have sided with Clinton in the vast majority of states this election, he lashed pundits scouring polls for signs of tension between “black and brown” and said the two communities face a common heritage of discrimination and inadequate public services. Finally, Obama sought to connect with white Jewish voters — potentially one of the rawest nerves of all amid the Wright controversy — denouncing those blacks who see “the conflicts in the Middle East as rooted primarily in the actions of stalwart allies like Israel, instead of emanating from the perverse and hateful ideologies of radical Islam.” It will take weeks, at least until the April 22 Pennsylvania primary, to know whether all of Obama’s political and cultural base-touching succeeded. Even before that verdict arrives, the speech counts as a remarkable event — most of all for the specificity with which Obama discussed racial attitudes and animosities that politicians usually prefer to leave unmentioned. Of his own candidacy, Obama said, “I have never been so naive as to believe that we can get beyond our racial divisions in a single election cycle, or with a single candidacy — particularly a candidacy as imperfect as my own.” Truth be told, Obama and his most fervent supporters often have acted as if he could end some of the most persistent divisions in American life by proclamation. When pressed on racial questions, Obama usually invoked his own biography and achievements and appealed to America’s hunger for unity. When pressed on a voting record that the National Journal called the most liberal in the Senate, Obama dismissed ideological labels as “old politics.” The Wright uproar showed that there is no way to sneak race and ideology through customs, blinding skeptics with his life story and phrase-making. The candidate will need to address these volatile topics directly. But this was becoming clear even before the Wright story caught fire. Recent controversy and response show that Barack Obama knows how much peril his candidacy faces. Photo: AP Page 2 It is true that Obama won a majority of white voters — a precedent-shattering achievement for a black presidential candidate — in an array of states like Illinois, Iowa, New Mexico, Wisconsin and Virginia. But many of his recent victories came when he got the better end of highly polarized voting patterns. He lost the white vote, sometimes by gaping margins in states like Alabama (whites went 72 percent for Clinton to Obama’s 25 percent), Maryland (52 percent to 42 percent) and Louisiana (58 percent to 30 percent). He compensated only with overwhelming support by black voters. In Ohio, it was Clinton who benefited from the racial pattern in the voting. She took 64 percent of the white vote, according to exit polls. That was easily enough to offset his 87 percent of the black vote. Overall, she won the state by 8 percentage points. This result could haunt Obama. The past two general elections were tipped by narrow GOP victories in Ohio and these rural whites are a prototypical swing bloc in elections stretching back decades. Obama failed to win more than 35 percent of the vote in 11 of the 12 rural counties that border Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Obama’s cross-racial and even cross-partisan support has been driven by a belief that he is a new-era politician, not defined by the grievances and ideological
Re: [Marxism-Thaxis] O and racism
People should have seen this development coming long ago. The only surprise is the timing and the slimy tactics of the Clintonites. I've watched some of the spin doctors, and of course the tenor of the Obama discussion hasw changed, including what the media mavens who were saying a couple weeks ago and months before how exciting he is. The susecptibility of an ignorant public to visceral stimuli sans any deep grasp of the political landscape is a big problem now bearing bitter fruit. The marketing of Obama's image, which got him this far, is now taking a big hit. The question is how long this will persist, now that reality is once again rearing its ugly head. I caught part of an interview Tavis Smiley did with Skip Gates. Gates, as a secular rather than religious figure, was mighty astute about this situation. He even suggested that bridging the black-white divide necessitates an economic pitch that would address the economic disadvantages of white workers and blacks. Both Tavis and Skippy wondered aloud whether Obama or Clinto were exactly the black or female candidates bestsuited to make the historic leap into the presidency. The manipulation of imagery, the packaging of candidates based on personality profiles and emotional appeals, the need to placate too many constituencies at once, all this renders all the Democratic candidates vulnerable to sudden reversals of public opinion, which have happened with both Clinton and Obama. The obvious vulnerabilities may well have been calculated by the media gatekeepers who set up Clinton and Obama as the front-runners in the first place. I haven't changed my overall perspective, but it was Obama's speech and the aftermath that made me pro-Obama doe the first time, not because I harbor any illusions, but the excessive reaction to the race issue based on a minor offense of being associated with a blowhard preacher has me alarmed, esp. since the Clinton camp has alienated so many people. -Original Message- From: Charles Brown [EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Mar 24, 2008 2:41 PM To: marxism-thaxis@lists.econ.utah.edu Subject: [Marxism-Thaxis] O and racism Of course, the term racist should be used here. Obama has racist obstacle in his path. He took a tack of transcending race as the only way he could remotely get masses of white votes. Charles Racial problems transcend Wright By JIM VANDEHEI JOHN F. HARRIS | 3/18/08 8:16 PM EST Text Size: ___ Marxism-Thaxis mailing list Marxism-Thaxis@lists.econ.utah.edu To change your options or unsubscribe go to: http://lists.econ.utah.edu/mailman/listinfo/marxism-thaxis
Re: [Marxism-Thaxis] Precis on theories of capitalist crisis
^ CB: I don't that Marx , Engels or Lenin analyzed what precipitated specific profit crises. Do you have an example of one of them analyzing a specific crisis ? Will get back to you on your question. But let me say: Perhaps my question should have been stated as the question as to whether or now there was a profit crisis. Regardless, I think M-E and Lenin would be very much interested in what is happening right now, don't you? Much of 'Marxism' takes as its problematic crises theses and, in the case of academic economics, such as it is (who is that, Jim Tomcat Devine and Michael Wimp Pereleman?), how to quantify labor theory of value. Yawn. Duff Henwood seems to have this thesis that every time a crisis pops up, once American capitalism overcomes that crisis, American capitalism has evolved closer to perfection while the left gets loonier. The guy is a genius! CJ ___ Marxism-Thaxis mailing list Marxism-Thaxis@lists.econ.utah.edu To change your options or unsubscribe go to: http://lists.econ.utah.edu/mailman/listinfo/marxism-thaxis
[Marxism-Thaxis] O and racism
I think the biggest problem O. has got is that he won a lot of states in the primaries and caucuses that no Democrat, of any race or gender, is going to win in a national election. Also, the Republicans benefit from the OVER-REPRESENTATION of some states at the expense of more populous states. So unless he gets the NE, the MW and Florida, while keeping California, he has no chance in the electoral college. I look at the primaries as something like this: suppose we had a series of cola taste tests nationwide. Two brands emerge, Coke and Pepsi. Right now Hilary is RC Cola, Obama is Pepsi, and McCain is Coke. The Demoncrats will have to come up with a marketing strategy for their brand, Pepsi/Obama. If they do about as well as they did last time, Obama's book sequel should be titled, 'The Audacity of Cluelessness'. This is the ultimate test of his leadership. But he might have signed on to a ship of the damned. He might well have made choices in what policies and ideas he was going to stand for that now doom him. I believe his fatal mistake made sometime after Kerry picked him to speak at the Demoncrat Convention last time was that he staked a position too far right. These mainstream Demoncrats like Obama never ever learn. OTOH, McCain looks an awful lot like Bob Dole. If that goober from Arkansas, Huckabee, flares up, it could sink McCain. A right-wing fundamentalist third party campaign from Huckabee would certainly help the Demoncrats right now. Since the press is ignoring Huckabee right now, I don't know if he has been appeased by the Repug bigwigs or not. If he has, then it looks pretty bad for Obama. It might go more like it did for Kerry than it did for Gore (whose key mistake was to choose Joe Blubberman as VP candidate). CJ ___ Marxism-Thaxis mailing list Marxism-Thaxis@lists.econ.utah.edu To change your options or unsubscribe go to: http://lists.econ.utah.edu/mailman/listinfo/marxism-thaxis
Re: [Marxism-Thaxis] Precis on theories of capitalist crisis
I believe the most fruitful lines of thought are centered on Lenin. Tthat was, in part, his genius of adding the concept of imperialism to Marxist thought; clearly WW I and its aftermath were real crises. It's his conception of imperialism and his analysis of finance capitalism that make him one of the first post-modern Marxists (especially if you can accept the thesis, advanced by Althusser and others, that Marx is foundational to structuralism in social scientific thought). This leads to all sorts of flows and eddies in Marxist thinking but perhaps the most important thinkers in this would be Deleuze and Guattari, who as co-authors become something like a single entity, like Marx-Engels. Unfortunately, they are both dead now. It would have been wonderful to see them discuss the current crisis. http://www.generation-online.org/p/fpdeleuze7.htm CJ ___ Marxism-Thaxis mailing list Marxism-Thaxis@lists.econ.utah.edu To change your options or unsubscribe go to: http://lists.econ.utah.edu/mailman/listinfo/marxism-thaxis
