Re: [MBZ] Back to 124 Daily Driver
For what it's worth, my UPS guy came by with some things this evening and I chatted him up about this subject. He said that all of the “junior” drivers at our hub have been sent to the warehouse to work in package handling because the volume has dropped off so much. -D > On Feb 15, 2024, at 10:21 AM, Andrew Strasfogel via Mercedes > wrote: > > And just when everyone accepts this as the new reality, things get upended > again. > > On Wed, Feb 14, 2024 at 11:50 PM Allan Streib via Mercedes < > mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote: > >> On Wed, Feb 14, 2024, at 16:12, Rick Knoble via Mercedes wrote: >> >>> Take from this what you will. >>> >>> My take? >>> Save your money, get out of debt. >>> A recession is eminent. >>> We (as a country) will have a better view of what's happening by the >>> third quarter. I *think* interest rates are not coming down soon, so >> >> Also, commercial real estate may finally be coming to terms with the >> reality that a lot of it just isn't needed anymore. A lot of big loans may >> be deeply underwater. >> >> https://archive.is/meem7 (Archived from Bloomberg.com) >> >> >> ___ >> http://www.okiebenz.com >> >> To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ >> >> To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: >> http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com >> >> > ___ > http://www.okiebenz.com > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Back to 124 Daily Driver
And just when everyone accepts this as the new reality, things get upended again. On Wed, Feb 14, 2024 at 11:50 PM Allan Streib via Mercedes < mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote: > On Wed, Feb 14, 2024, at 16:12, Rick Knoble via Mercedes wrote: > > > Take from this what you will. > > > > My take? > > Save your money, get out of debt. > > A recession is eminent. > > We (as a country) will have a better view of what's happening by the > > third quarter. I *think* interest rates are not coming down soon, so > > Also, commercial real estate may finally be coming to terms with the > reality that a lot of it just isn't needed anymore. A lot of big loans may > be deeply underwater. > > https://archive.is/meem7 (Archived from Bloomberg.com) > > > ___ > http://www.okiebenz.com > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > > ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Back to 124 Daily Driver
On Wed, Feb 14, 2024, at 16:12, Rick Knoble via Mercedes wrote: > Take from this what you will. > > My take? > Save your money, get out of debt. > A recession is eminent. > We (as a country) will have a better view of what's happening by the > third quarter. I *think* interest rates are not coming down soon, so Also, commercial real estate may finally be coming to terms with the reality that a lot of it just isn't needed anymore. A lot of big loans may be deeply underwater. https://archive.is/meem7 (Archived from Bloomberg.com) ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Back to 124 Daily Driver
On Wed, 14 Feb 2024 17:24:12 -0500 "Allan Streib" wrote: > Globally, we also have the situation in the Red Sea which is preventing > a lot of shipping from going through the Suez Canal. Cargo that must go > is going around Africa, other shipments are being delayed or canceled. Yes, that is true. > Meaning a lot of cheap crap destined for Wal Mart or Amazon hubs might > not be arriving. Would not the cheap stuff from China come directly across the Pacific to California and/or Washington? Craig ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Back to 124 Daily Driver
Globally, we also have the situation in the Red Sea which is preventing a lot of shipping from going through the Suez Canal. Cargo that must go is going around Africa, other shipments are being delayed or canceled. Meaning a lot of cheap crap destined for Wal Mart or Amazon hubs might not be arriving. On Wed, Feb 14, 2024, at 17:05, Craig via Mercedes wrote: > On Wed, 14 Feb 2024 20:06:58 + "dan penoff.com via Mercedes" > wrote: > >> Please do. I am curious as well. > > Check out: > > https://www.dat.com/blog/the-2023-freight-market-was-five-years-in-the-making > > There is a fellow from that organization who is on OOIDA's "Land Line Now" > broadcast (https://landline.media/) every week to talk about the freight > situation. > > Also check out: https://www.dat.com/trendlines which currently shows the > attached. > > > Craig > >> > On Feb 14, 2024, at 11:29 AM, Buggered Benzmail via Mercedes >> > wrote: >> > >> > I have an acquaintance who is the east coast shipping coordinator for >> > one of the big container operators. I’ll ask her. This is intriguing. >> > >> >> On Feb 14, 2024, at 1:13 PM, dan penoff.com via Mercedes >> >> wrote: >> >> >> >> Rick, >> >> >> >> Do you think this is the case considering that I would expect >> >> shipping volume in the first quarter to be the lowest on an annual >> >> basis? Just curious, and thanks so much for sharing! >> >> >> >> -D >> >> >> On Feb 14, 2024, at 10:43 AM, Rick Knoble via Mercedes >> wrote: >> >>> >> >>> Several bubbles are getting ready to pop. I have not seen shipping >> >>> volumes this low in twenty years. >> >>> >> >>> Rick > > ___ > http://www.okiebenz.com > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > > > Attachments: > * Screenshot from 2024-02-14 15-02-13.png ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Back to 124 Daily Driver
On Wed, 14 Feb 2024 20:06:58 + "dan penoff.com via Mercedes" wrote: > Please do. I am curious as well. Check out: https://www.dat.com/blog/the-2023-freight-market-was-five-years-in-the-making There is a fellow from that organization who is on OOIDA's "Land Line Now" broadcast (https://landline.media/) every week to talk about the freight situation. Also check out: https://www.dat.com/trendlines which currently shows the attached. Craig > > On Feb 14, 2024, at 11:29 AM, Buggered Benzmail via Mercedes > > wrote: > > > > I have an acquaintance who is the east coast shipping coordinator for > > one of the big container operators. I’ll ask her. This is intriguing. > > > >> On Feb 14, 2024, at 1:13 PM, dan penoff.com via Mercedes > >> wrote: > >> > >> Rick, > >> > >> Do you think this is the case considering that I would expect > >> shipping volume in the first quarter to be the lowest on an annual > >> basis? Just curious, and thanks so much for sharing! > >> > >> -D > >> > On Feb 14, 2024, at 10:43 AM, Rick Knoble via Mercedes > wrote: > >>> > >>> Several bubbles are getting ready to pop. I have not seen shipping > >>> volumes this low in twenty years. > >>> > >>> Rick ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Back to 124 Daily Driver
My SIL is a UPS driver who is pretty low on the Union seniority totem pole. He has been either sent home or been told to futz around the hub several times already this year. Things definitely are down/slow. AZBob Sent from my iPhone > On Feb 14, 2024, at 2:13 PM, Rick Knoble via Mercedes > wrote: > > Dan, > > Traditionally this is the slowest time of year for shipping. Package volume > falls by 30-40 % over peak volume. This past peak was above average, but I've > seen times when volume was overwhelming. This past year was not. Current > volume is down perhaps 20-25% from the same time last year. That is a > guesstimate, but I believe it is accurate. > Remember, UPS makes most of its' ground profit from business to business > commerce. Home deliveries are less profitable and more of a PITA. Note also > that where I work is a consolidation hub. It is financially more prudent to > close or curtail operations somewhere else and route that volume through > here. They are doing that. > > > Take from this what you will. > > My take? > Save your money, get out of debt. > A recession is eminent. > We (as a country) will have a better view of what's happening by the third > quarter. I *think* interest rates are not coming down soon, so . > > > Rick > > > Get Outlook for Android<https://aka.ms/AAb9ysg> > > From: Mercedes on behalf of dan penoff.com > via Mercedes > Sent: Wednesday, February 14, 2024 12:12:51 PM > To: Okie Benz > Cc: dan penoff.com > Subject: Re: [MBZ] Back to 124 Daily Driver > > Rick, > > Do you think this is the case considering that I would expect shipping volume > in the first quarter to be the lowest on an annual basis? Just curious, and > thanks so much for sharing! > > -D > >>> On Feb 14, 2024, at 10:43 AM, Rick Knoble via Mercedes >>> wrote: >>> >>> We are in a 123 bubble right now that I suspect will be bursting at any >>> moment. >> >> Several bubbles are getting ready to pop. I have not seen shipping volumes >> this low in twenty years. >> >> Rick >> >> ___ >> http://www.okiebenz.com >> >> To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ >> >> To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: >> http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com >> > > ___ > http://www.okiebenz.com > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > > ___ > http://www.okiebenz.com > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Back to 124 Daily Driver
Dan, Traditionally this is the slowest time of year for shipping. Package volume falls by 30-40 % over peak volume. This past peak was above average, but I've seen times when volume was overwhelming. This past year was not. Current volume is down perhaps 20-25% from the same time last year. That is a guesstimate, but I believe it is accurate. Remember, UPS makes most of its' ground profit from business to business commerce. Home deliveries are less profitable and more of a PITA. Note also that where I work is a consolidation hub. It is financially more prudent to close or curtail operations somewhere else and route that volume through here. They are doing that. Take from this what you will. My take? Save your money, get out of debt. A recession is eminent. We (as a country) will have a better view of what's happening by the third quarter. I *think* interest rates are not coming down soon, so . Rick Get Outlook for Android<https://aka.ms/AAb9ysg> From: Mercedes on behalf of dan penoff.com via Mercedes Sent: Wednesday, February 14, 2024 12:12:51 PM To: Okie Benz Cc: dan penoff.com Subject: Re: [MBZ] Back to 124 Daily Driver Rick, Do you think this is the case considering that I would expect shipping volume in the first quarter to be the lowest on an annual basis? Just curious, and thanks so much for sharing! -D > On Feb 14, 2024, at 10:43 AM, Rick Knoble via Mercedes > wrote: > >> We are in a 123 bubble right now that I suspect will be bursting at any >> moment. > > Several bubbles are getting ready to pop. I have not seen shipping volumes > this low in twenty years. > > Rick > > ___ > http://www.okiebenz.com > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Back to 124 Daily Driver
Please do. I am curious as well. -D > On Feb 14, 2024, at 11:29 AM, Buggered Benzmail via Mercedes > wrote: > > I have an acquaintance who is the east coast shipping coordinator for one of > the big container operators. I’ll ask her. This is intriguing. > > --FT > Sent from iFōn > >> On Feb 14, 2024, at 1:13 PM, dan penoff.com via Mercedes >> wrote: >> >> Rick, >> >> Do you think this is the case considering that I would expect shipping >> volume in the first quarter to be the lowest on an annual basis? Just >> curious, and thanks so much for sharing! >> >> -D >> On Feb 14, 2024, at 10:43 AM, Rick Knoble via Mercedes wrote: We are in a 123 bubble right now that I suspect will be bursting at any moment. >>> >>> Several bubbles are getting ready to pop. I have not seen shipping volumes >>> this low in twenty years. >>> >>> Rick >>> >>> ___ >>> http://www.okiebenz.com >>> >>> To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ >>> >>> To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: >>> http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com >>> >> >> ___ >> http://www.okiebenz.com >> >> To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ >> >> To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: >> http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com >> > > ___ > http://www.okiebenz.com > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Back to 124 Daily Driver
I have an acquaintance who is the east coast shipping coordinator for one of the big container operators. I’ll ask her. This is intriguing. --FT Sent from iFōn > On Feb 14, 2024, at 1:13 PM, dan penoff.com via Mercedes > wrote: > > Rick, > > Do you think this is the case considering that I would expect shipping volume > in the first quarter to be the lowest on an annual basis? Just curious, and > thanks so much for sharing! > > -D > >>> On Feb 14, 2024, at 10:43 AM, Rick Knoble via Mercedes >>> wrote: >>> >>> We are in a 123 bubble right now that I suspect will be bursting at any >>> moment. >> >> Several bubbles are getting ready to pop. I have not seen shipping volumes >> this low in twenty years. >> >> Rick >> >> ___ >> http://www.okiebenz.com >> >> To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ >> >> To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: >> http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com >> > > ___ > http://www.okiebenz.com > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Back to 124 Daily Driver
Rick, Do you think this is the case considering that I would expect shipping volume in the first quarter to be the lowest on an annual basis? Just curious, and thanks so much for sharing! -D > On Feb 14, 2024, at 10:43 AM, Rick Knoble via Mercedes > wrote: > >> We are in a 123 bubble right now that I suspect will be bursting at any >> moment. > > Several bubbles are getting ready to pop. I have not seen shipping volumes > this low in twenty years. > > Rick > > ___ > http://www.okiebenz.com > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Back to 124 Daily Driver
> Struts can be pricey if they’re leaking, but again, that’s uncommon. Or, re-seal them. I did one. Cost me $8.87 in parts, over the counter, in 2010. -- Jim ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Back to 124 Daily Driver
> We are in a 123 bubble right now that I suspect will be bursting at any > moment. Several bubbles are getting ready to pop. I have not seen shipping volumes this low in twenty years. Rick ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Back to 124 Daily Driver
Don’t sweat the SLS (rear suspension.) It’s typically quite robust and rarely requires service. Struts can be pricey if they’re leaking, but again, that’s uncommon. More often than not, the only thing the system needs is the replacement of the accumulators (spheres) which are not expensive and readily available. -D > On Feb 14, 2024, at 10:22 AM, Donald Snook via Mercedes > wrote: > > > I inherited a car and had too many cars – 4 to be specific. I decided I > needed to consolidate. I sold my 2022 F150 and I am taking my 81 Cadillac to > a car show at the end of the month and a buyer is meeting me. He wanted the > car earlier. The point I am getting to is that I will now be daily driving > my 90 MB 300E. Sometimes I forget how nice the 124 is to drive! > > I did find an 82 300TD (123 diesel wagon) that looks great. They want $20K > for it with only 115K miles and it’s a two owner. I know that’s a lot of > money, but these have been going for crazy money. It makes me think there is > something wrong with it. I have had 123 diesels before. But, never had a > wagon. Assuming the rear suspension is good, isn’t that the big thing that > is unique to the wagons? > > Don Snook > 90 300E 129K > 2021 Toyota Rav4 (her car) > 81 Cadillac Coupe deVille (for now) > > > ___ > http://www.okiebenz.com > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Back to 124 Daily Driver
That price is insane for the wagon. There are much cheaper examples out there. We are in a 123 bubble right now that I suspect will be bursting at any moment. After the Dean 124 on BAT, the crack is even higher on them for the moment. Sent from my iPhone > On Feb 14, 2024, at 11:22 AM, Donald Snook via Mercedes > wrote: > > > I inherited a car and had too many cars – 4 to be specific. I decided I > needed to consolidate. I sold my 2022 F150 and I am taking my 81 Cadillac to > a car show at the end of the month and a buyer is meeting me. He wanted the > car earlier. The point I am getting to is that I will now be daily driving > my 90 MB 300E. Sometimes I forget how nice the 124 is to drive! > > I did find an 82 300TD (123 diesel wagon) that looks great. They want $20K > for it with only 115K miles and it’s a two owner. I know that’s a lot of > money, but these have been going for crazy money. It makes me think there is > something wrong with it. I have had 123 diesels before. But, never had a > wagon. Assuming the rear suspension is good, isn’t that the big thing that > is unique to the wagons? > > Don Snook > 90 300E 129K > 2021 Toyota Rav4 (her car) > 81 Cadillac Coupe deVille (for now) > > > ___ > http://www.okiebenz.com > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
[MBZ] Back to 124 Daily Driver
I inherited a car and had too many cars – 4 to be specific. I decided I needed to consolidate. I sold my 2022 F150 and I am taking my 81 Cadillac to a car show at the end of the month and a buyer is meeting me. He wanted the car earlier. The point I am getting to is that I will now be daily driving my 90 MB 300E. Sometimes I forget how nice the 124 is to drive! I did find an 82 300TD (123 diesel wagon) that looks great. They want $20K for it with only 115K miles and it’s a two owner. I know that’s a lot of money, but these have been going for crazy money. It makes me think there is something wrong with it. I have had 123 diesels before. But, never had a wagon. Assuming the rear suspension is good, isn’t that the big thing that is unique to the wagons? Don Snook 90 300E 129K 2021 Toyota Rav4 (her car) 81 Cadillac Coupe deVille (for now) ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
