Re: [MBZ] OT: A contrarian view on COVID-19, plus good news - there's a CURE!

[archer75--- via Mercedes]

"As the coronavirus spreads more widely around the globe, scientists are 
starting to use a powerful new tool: a blood test that identifies people who 
have previously been exposed to the virus. This kind of test is still under 
development in the United States, but it has been rolled out for use in 
Singapore and China...snip

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/02/28/810131079/how-a-coronavirus-blood-test-could-solve-some-medical-mysteries

..
> Karl writes:
> 
> >Let's all hope the true prevalence of asymptomatic infection is much higher 
> >than suspected and that the case fatality rates are wild overestimates.
> 
> Unfortunately, the only way to know that is if an antibody test is 
> administered. To my knowledge none has been developed, or is in the process 
> of being developed. Half the population could have had it already and 
> recovered, and we will never know. 
> 
> Rick
> ___
> http://www.okiebenz.com
> 
> To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/
> 
> To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to:
> http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
> 


-- 
arche...@embarqmail.com 

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Re: [MBZ] OT: A contrarian view on COVID-19, plus good news - there's a CURE!

[Karl Wittnebel via Mercedes]

That rings true. I would add two things.

Our hospital has a test that will go on line Monday and has a 24h or less
turnaround. This will help us move patients through the system and test
exposed healthcare workers more rapidly. Many other hospitals are doing the
same. California and the feds are supporting more on-demand community level
testing capacity, which is good, but late.

There is an ELISA for prior exposure. Cannot recall where it has been
developed. Spain perhaps. It was in the comments on tbe skeptic article.
Random sampling studies of the population would be required to get a
snapshot. I am sure someone will do that study eventually. Knowing who is
immune would help us assign caregivers within the hospital also. Lots to
learn about the strength of immunity resulting from acute infection and how
rapidly this immunity develops.



On Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 7:12 AM Meade Dillon via Mercedes <
mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:

> Got this a few minutes ago, from a relative of an in-law who is an
> infectious disease doc in Denver CO:
>
> Notes from the field
> I thought I would update my Facebook friends on a few things about
> COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2 in our community. There is a lot of confusing
> information out there.
> 1) First, I want to say that cases in our metro-Denver area are increasing,
> but there is almost no testing available for people who are not sick enough
> to be in the hospital, so the numbers in the news do not reflect reality.
> There are likely thousands of cases around us of varying severity, and
> numbers will continue to increase before it gets better. The timing depends
> on how well we continue with “social distancing” and protecting our
> community. I have been keeping up with the cases at the 2 hospitals that I
> work in, and with cases in other local hospitals. While it is true that
> most people with COVID-19 can “ride it out” at home, about 14% of adults
> will have a severe disease leading to respiratory failure, kidney failure,
> prolonged illness and even death. There are several patients in the
> 50-year-old range with illness like this locally and their chance of full
> recovery is very unlikely. They do not have chronic health conditions. This
> is not always a “mild illness” and does not only cause death in the
> elderly. The good news is that we are not seeing many older patients in the
> hospital, so it seems we are doing a good job of protecting our elderly
> neighbors!
> 2) The lack of testing is a huge problem. Public Health has stopped testing
> in our area because an outbreak has already been established and they are
> limited in resources. ERs are no longer testing people who are not sick
> enough to be admitted, because they are already so busy caring for patients
> with this disease as well as influenza and pneumonia and other illness that
> circulate at this time. Doctors' offices do not have the protective
> equipment (PPE) to protect their staff when testing patients, and PPE is in
> short supply across the country. The test kits are in low supply. Because
> of this, there is no way to know who many are infected.
> 3) Hospitals are already stressed. Hospital docs, nurses, and other staff
> are accustomed to stressful situations, but I can feel the anxiety around
> me. The patients are sick, and it is taking too long (4-5 days) to get the
> COVID test back. While medical workers typically are reasonable about
> “germaphobia”, and while we are washing hands and using proper PPE when
> caring for COVID-19 patients; we are touching keyboards, phones and
> doorknobs that are touched by hundreds of people a day. The biggest source
> of stress is that we know we don’t have enough PPE to deal with the
> outbreak. We will run out of masks, gloves, etc., and then our patients may
> not get the care they need, or healthcare workers might get sick. Things in
> the hospital have changed. Exterior doors are locked, chairs in sitting
> areas are gone, salad bars are gone… it feels a little apocalyptical, but
> the changes are necessary. Docs who care for these patients (ER docs,
> critical care docs, Pulmonologists, and infectious Disease docs) are
> getting hundreds of emails daily. These are emails with case reports,
> potential treatments, numbers of deaths and cases... There is no way to
> keep up with them all, but we try to read them because we don’t want to
> miss something important that might help our patients. Patients are calling
> with many questions… a lot has changed. Don’t feel sorry for us though. We
> signed up for this, and I think I speak for most hospital providers when I
> say that we want to be doing what we do. I am so impressed by the medical
> community around me. Everyone is invested in figuring out how to help
> patients and in supporting each other.
> 4) With all this being said, I do not want to sound dismal. We are much
> better equipped than Italy as we have more Critical Care beds and
> ventilators, so the mortality will be much lower in 

Re: [MBZ] OT: A contrarian view on COVID-19, plus good news - there's a CURE!

[fmiser via Mercedes]

> Dimitri wrote:

> Seems to me that Dr. Reem is a fear mongerer.

Yeah - statements like this throw red flags

> > It has been years since I have posted anything on this page.
> > As a physician at Harvard Medical School, I have amazing
> > access to the best information and resources for #Covid19

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Re: [MBZ] OT: A contrarian view on COVID-19, plus good news - there's a CURE!

[Meade Dillon via Mercedes]

Got this a few minutes ago, from a relative of an in-law who is an
infectious disease doc in Denver CO:

Notes from the field
I thought I would update my Facebook friends on a few things about
COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2 in our community. There is a lot of confusing
information out there.
1) First, I want to say that cases in our metro-Denver area are increasing,
but there is almost no testing available for people who are not sick enough
to be in the hospital, so the numbers in the news do not reflect reality.
There are likely thousands of cases around us of varying severity, and
numbers will continue to increase before it gets better. The timing depends
on how well we continue with “social distancing” and protecting our
community. I have been keeping up with the cases at the 2 hospitals that I
work in, and with cases in other local hospitals. While it is true that
most people with COVID-19 can “ride it out” at home, about 14% of adults
will have a severe disease leading to respiratory failure, kidney failure,
prolonged illness and even death. There are several patients in the
50-year-old range with illness like this locally and their chance of full
recovery is very unlikely. They do not have chronic health conditions. This
is not always a “mild illness” and does not only cause death in the
elderly. The good news is that we are not seeing many older patients in the
hospital, so it seems we are doing a good job of protecting our elderly
neighbors!
2) The lack of testing is a huge problem. Public Health has stopped testing
in our area because an outbreak has already been established and they are
limited in resources. ERs are no longer testing people who are not sick
enough to be admitted, because they are already so busy caring for patients
with this disease as well as influenza and pneumonia and other illness that
circulate at this time. Doctors' offices do not have the protective
equipment (PPE) to protect their staff when testing patients, and PPE is in
short supply across the country. The test kits are in low supply. Because
of this, there is no way to know who many are infected.
3) Hospitals are already stressed. Hospital docs, nurses, and other staff
are accustomed to stressful situations, but I can feel the anxiety around
me. The patients are sick, and it is taking too long (4-5 days) to get the
COVID test back. While medical workers typically are reasonable about
“germaphobia”, and while we are washing hands and using proper PPE when
caring for COVID-19 patients; we are touching keyboards, phones and
doorknobs that are touched by hundreds of people a day. The biggest source
of stress is that we know we don’t have enough PPE to deal with the
outbreak. We will run out of masks, gloves, etc., and then our patients may
not get the care they need, or healthcare workers might get sick. Things in
the hospital have changed. Exterior doors are locked, chairs in sitting
areas are gone, salad bars are gone… it feels a little apocalyptical, but
the changes are necessary. Docs who care for these patients (ER docs,
critical care docs, Pulmonologists, and infectious Disease docs) are
getting hundreds of emails daily. These are emails with case reports,
potential treatments, numbers of deaths and cases... There is no way to
keep up with them all, but we try to read them because we don’t want to
miss something important that might help our patients. Patients are calling
with many questions… a lot has changed. Don’t feel sorry for us though. We
signed up for this, and I think I speak for most hospital providers when I
say that we want to be doing what we do. I am so impressed by the medical
community around me. Everyone is invested in figuring out how to help
patients and in supporting each other.
4) With all this being said, I do not want to sound dismal. We are much
better equipped than Italy as we have more Critical Care beds and
ventilators, so the mortality will be much lower in the US. Denver truly
has some of the best doctors and nurses in the country, probably because
this is a great place to live! Whether it is due to herd immunity, or a
reprieve in summer, or new treatments (a vaccine will take a while); we
will get through this. This is not nearly as bad as measles, smallpox,
Spanish flu, etc. Past experience with those helps us know what to do.
Someday, we will reach a new normal

-
Max
Charleston SC


On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 9:59 AM Rick Knoble via Mercedes <
mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:

> Karl writes:
>
> >Let's all hope the true prevalence of asymptomatic infection is much
> higher than suspected and that the case fatality rates are wild
> overestimates.
>
> Unfortunately, the only way to know that is if an antibody test is
> administered. To my knowledge none has been developed, or is in the process
> of being developed. Half the population could have had it already and
> recovered, and we will never know.
>
> Rick
> ___
> http://www.okiebenz.com
>
> To search 

Re: [MBZ] OT: A contrarian view on COVID-19, plus good news - there's a CURE!

[Rick Knoble via Mercedes]

Karl writes:

>Let's all hope the true prevalence of asymptomatic infection is much higher 
>than suspected and that the case fatality rates are wild overestimates.

Unfortunately, the only way to know that is if an antibody test is 
administered. To my knowledge none has been developed, or is in the process of 
being developed. Half the population could have had it already and recovered, 
and we will never know. 

Rick
___
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Re: [MBZ] OT: A contrarian view on COVID-19, plus good news - there's a CURE!

[Buggered Benzmail via Mercedes]

The boy says they are trying to figure out telemedicine for his clinic at 
Stanford so they can do remote “visits.”  Challenging. He said it was starting 
to get pretty busy there. 

The local hospital doing testing is now triaging tests on patients due to lack 
of tests and materials and equipment. Yesterday there were only 30-40 cases in 
the state but supplies are already getting stretched. 

Interesting I have heard nothing at all about conditions south of the southern 
border. Canada has locked down their border but I haven’t seen anything about 
spread there. 

A guy I know in Peru posted pics of Cusco, normally a bustling city, now 
deserted streets, no one out and about. They seem to be taking it seriously. 
That’s good I guess. 

Stay safe y’all 

--FT
Sent from iPhone

> On Mar 20, 2020, at 12:00 AM, Karl Wittnebel via Mercedes 
>  wrote:
> 
> Every medical center treating these patients, including ours, is using
> hydroxychloroquine. It is an old and well known drug. Not a cure by any
> means. We hope it helps.
> 
> The epideliologic evidence is extremely poor quality; I will give him
> that.  But the lack of high quality evidence applies to his position also.
> 
> As is so often the case, this situation boils down to what to do in the
> absence of evidence. If everybody taking it easy for a week or three gives
> us some time to get better data, I am all for it. The testing is ramping up
> by the day and it will not be long until we have on demand testing for
> everyone at drive throughs. That will give us a clear picture of true case
> fatality and how contagious it is. Those numbers can then drive policy.
> 
> If he is wrong, we could be the next Italy. If the feds and states and
> cities are being overly cautious, things will be back to normal pretty
> soon.
> 
> Garcetti put everyone in lockdown tonight, and then Newsom did the same for
> the entire state of CA, or something like 37 million people. Interesting
> times.
> 
> Still waiting for the wave to break at work. We have a few cases, all
> elective surgery is cancelled, all staff who can telecommute are doing so,
> all meetings that can be done by phone are being done by phone. Lots of
> contingency planning because Italy has lots of healthcare workers out with
> infection. We remain very short of N95 masks. Not sure when that situation
> will improve. Trump approved all the industrial n95 masks for sale to
> hospitals, but I think many of them had already been hoarded by
> individuals. Basically you need a bunny suit, an N95 and a face shield to
> stay healthy if dealing with large numbers of infected patients.
> 
> I dont have a problem with doing simple things to slow this down while we
> get a better handle on it. Most of us believe it is out there multiplying,
> because that is what contagious viruses do. Even if distancing only gives
> us some time to get n95 masks to hospitals to protect doctors, nurses and
> other staff, it will have been worth doing.
> 
> The hospitalized are pretty every divided age group wise. Young people are
> dying in this thing. Not as often as old people, but often enough for
> everyone to think seriously about it on a personal level. Not too many
> contagious things put 20, 30, 40, 50 and 60 year olds in the hospital at
> similar rates. That is what is happening. Old people are recovering less,
> but lots of young people are being hospitalized with viral pneumonia.
> 
> Let's all hope the true prevalence of asymptomatic infection is much higher
> than suspected and that the case fatality rates are wild overestimates.
> 
> Karl
> 
> 
> 
>> On Thu, Mar 19, 2020, 1:43 PM Meade Dillon via Mercedes <
>> mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:
>> 
>> First the good new: Cure?
>> 
>> 
>> https://nypost.com/2020/03/19/old-malaria-drug-hydroxychloroquine-may-help-cure-coronavirus-study/
>> 
>> Next the contrarian.
>> 
>> 
>> https://www.thecollegefix.com/stanford-epidemiologist-warns-that-coronavirus-crackdown-is-based-on-bad-data/
>> 
>> "A population-wide case fatality rate of 0.05% is lower than seasonal
>> influenza. If that is the true rate, locking down the world with
>> potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally
>> irrational. It’s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated
>> and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff
>> and dies."
>> -
>> Max
>> Charleston SC
>> ___
>> http://www.okiebenz.com
>> 
>> To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/
>> 
>> To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to:
>> http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
>> 
>> 
> ___
> http://www.okiebenz.com
> 
> To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/
> 
> To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to:
> http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
> 

___

Re: [MBZ] OT: A contrarian view on COVID-19, plus good news - there's a CURE!

[Dimitri Seretakis via Mercedes]

Seems to me that Dr. Reem is a fear mongerer.

Sent from my iPhone

> On Mar 19, 2020, at 5:54 PM, Floyd Thursby via Mercedes 
>  wrote:
> 
> FWIW
> 
> I presume this is accurate, from a coupla days ago, tracks with I am told by 
> Dr. Boy,  YMMV:
> 
> Public
> From one of the doctors here at Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Dr. Julie 
> Silver and her friend Dr. Reem Ghalib. Please read the whole thing, it is an 
> important summary about COVID19, flattening the curve and what will happen if 
> we don’t take strict precautions now:
> Julie said —“It has been years since I have posted anything on this page. As 
> a physician at Harvard Medical School, I have amazing access to the best 
> information and resources for #Covid19 
> .
>  I know people are getting a lot of information, and not all of it is 
> accurate. My friend Dr. Reem Ghalib summarized the situation in one of the 
> best social media posts to date on this topic (copied/pasted below). Please 
> read what she has to say and share with your loved ones, friends, and 
> colleagues. Urge people to be calm and logical in their decision making. Err 
> on the side of caution. Re the info below--note that "coronavirus" is used 
> generically to mean the specific strain Covid 19. I will apologize in advance 
> for not responding to comments as work is very hectic right now:
> Dear Friends,
> So much confusion, misinformation and denial is bouncing around on social 
> media about the coronavirus that I thought I would try to explain, in plain 
> language, why the experts see this as such an emergency.
> You will see the claim online that this virus is a lot like the viruses that 
> cause colds, and that if you get it, it will probably just seem like a bad 
> cold and you are very unlikely to die. Depending on who you are, these 
> statements are probably true. But they are incomplete, and the missing 
> information is the key to understanding the problem.
> This is a coronavirus that is new to the human population, jumping into 
> people late last year from some kind of animal, probably at a wildlife market 
> in Wuhan, China. It is related to the viruses that cause colds, and acts a 
> lot like them in many ways. It is very easy to transmit through the 
> respiratory droplets that all of us give off. But nobody has ever been 
> exposed to this before, which means nobody has any immunity to it.
> The virus is now moving explosively through the human population. While most 
> people will recover, about 20 percent of the people who catch it will wind up 
> with a serious disease. They will get pneumonia that causes shortness of 
> breath, and they may need hospitalization.
> Some of those people will get so sick that they cannot be saved and will die 
> of the pneumonia. The overall death rate for people who develop symptoms 
> seems to be 2 or 3 percent. Once we have enough testing to find out how many 
> people caught the virus but did not develop symptoms, that might come down to 
> about 1 percent, optimistically.
> This is a large number. It is at least 10 times higher than the mortality 
> rate for the seasonal flu, for instance, which in some years kills 60,000 or 
> 70,000 Americans. So just on that math, we could be looking at 600,000 or 
> 700,000 dead in the United States. But it gets worse.
> Older people with existing health problems are much more vulnerable, on 
> average. The mortality rate of coronavirus among people over age 80 may be 15 
> or 20 percent. It appears to have 7 or 8 percent mortality for people aged 70 
> to 79. Here is the terrible part: If you are a healthy younger person, you 
> can catch the virus and, without developing serious symptoms yourself, you 
> can pass it along to older people. In other words, as the virus spreads, it 
> is going to be very easy to go out and catch it, give it to your grandmother 
> and kill her, even though you will not die yourself. You can catch it by 
> touching a door knob or an elevator button.
> Scientists measure the spread of an epidemic by a number called R0, or “R 
> naught.” That number is calculated this way: for every person who develops 
> the illness, how many other people do they give it to before they are cured 
> (or dead) and no longer infectious? The R0 for coronavirus, in the absence of 
> a control strategy, appears to be a number close to 3 – maybe a bit higher or 
> lower, but in that ballpark. This is an extremely frightening number for such 
> a deadly disease.
> Suppose you catch the virus. You will give it to 3 other people, and they 
> will each give it to three others, and so forth. Here is how the math works, 
> where you, the “index case,” are the first line:
> 1
> 3
> 9
> 27
> 81
> 243
> 729
> 2,187
> 6,561
> 19,683
> 

Re: [MBZ] OT: A contrarian view on COVID-19, plus good news - there's a CURE!

[Dan Penoff via Mercedes]

Thanks for reporting in, Karl. You can’t imagine how comforting it is to hear 
unbiased observations from a professional on the front lines, good news or bad.

-D

> On Mar 19, 2020, at 11:59 PM, Karl Wittnebel via Mercedes 
>  wrote:
> 
> Every medical center treating these patients, including ours, is using
> hydroxychloroquine. It is an old and well known drug. Not a cure by any
> means. We hope it helps.
> 
> The epideliologic evidence is extremely poor quality; I will give him
> that.  But the lack of high quality evidence applies to his position also.
> 
> As is so often the case, this situation boils down to what to do in the
> absence of evidence. If everybody taking it easy for a week or three gives
> us some time to get better data, I am all for it. The testing is ramping up
> by the day and it will not be long until we have on demand testing for
> everyone at drive throughs. That will give us a clear picture of true case
> fatality and how contagious it is. Those numbers can then drive policy.
> 
> If he is wrong, we could be the next Italy. If the feds and states and
> cities are being overly cautious, things will be back to normal pretty
> soon.
> 
> Garcetti put everyone in lockdown tonight, and then Newsom did the same for
> the entire state of CA, or something like 37 million people. Interesting
> times.
> 
> Still waiting for the wave to break at work. We have a few cases, all
> elective surgery is cancelled, all staff who can telecommute are doing so,
> all meetings that can be done by phone are being done by phone. Lots of
> contingency planning because Italy has lots of healthcare workers out with
> infection. We remain very short of N95 masks. Not sure when that situation
> will improve. Trump approved all the industrial n95 masks for sale to
> hospitals, but I think many of them had already been hoarded by
> individuals. Basically you need a bunny suit, an N95 and a face shield to
> stay healthy if dealing with large numbers of infected patients.
> 
> I dont have a problem with doing simple things to slow this down while we
> get a better handle on it. Most of us believe it is out there multiplying,
> because that is what contagious viruses do. Even if distancing only gives
> us some time to get n95 masks to hospitals to protect doctors, nurses and
> other staff, it will have been worth doing.
> 
> The hospitalized are pretty every divided age group wise. Young people are
> dying in this thing. Not as often as old people, but often enough for
> everyone to think seriously about it on a personal level. Not too many
> contagious things put 20, 30, 40, 50 and 60 year olds in the hospital at
> similar rates. That is what is happening. Old people are recovering less,
> but lots of young people are being hospitalized with viral pneumonia.
> 
> Let's all hope the true prevalence of asymptomatic infection is much higher
> than suspected and that the case fatality rates are wild overestimates.
> 
> Karl
> 
> 
> 
> On Thu, Mar 19, 2020, 1:43 PM Meade Dillon via Mercedes <
> mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:
> 
>> First the good new: Cure?
>> 
>> 
>> https://nypost.com/2020/03/19/old-malaria-drug-hydroxychloroquine-may-help-cure-coronavirus-study/
>> 
>> Next the contrarian.
>> 
>> 
>> https://www.thecollegefix.com/stanford-epidemiologist-warns-that-coronavirus-crackdown-is-based-on-bad-data/
>> 
>> "A population-wide case fatality rate of 0.05% is lower than seasonal
>> influenza. If that is the true rate, locking down the world with
>> potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally
>> irrational. It’s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated
>> and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff
>> and dies."
>> -
>> Max
>> Charleston SC
>> ___
>> http://www.okiebenz.com
>> 
>> To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/
>> 
>> To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to:
>> http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
>> 
>> 
> ___
> http://www.okiebenz.com
> 
> To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/
> 
> To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to:
> http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
> 


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Re: [MBZ] OT: A contrarian view on COVID-19, plus good news - there's a CURE!

[Scott Ritchey via Mercedes]

Karl, thanks for your reports.  This reminds me of battle where the command 
staff has to make sense of multiple, incomplete, incoherent, and conflicting, 
reports from the front.  Cost of error is high.

> -Original Message-
> From: Mercedes [mailto:mercedes-boun...@okiebenz.com] On Behalf Of Karl
> Wittnebel via Mercedes
> Sent: Friday, March 20, 2020 12:00 AM
> To: Mercedes Discussion List 
> Cc: Karl Wittnebel 
> Subject: Re: [MBZ] OT: A contrarian view on COVID-19, plus good news -
> there's a CURE!
> 
> Every medical center treating these patients, including ours, is using
> hydroxychloroquine. It is an old and well known drug. Not a cure by any
> means. We hope it helps.
> 
> The epideliologic evidence is extremely poor quality; I will give him that.  
> But
> the lack of high quality evidence applies to his position also.
> 
> As is so often the case, this situation boils down to what to do in the 
> absence
> of evidence. If everybody taking it easy for a week or three gives us some 
> time
> to get better data, I am all for it. The testing is ramping up by the day and 
> it will
> not be long until we have on demand testing for everyone at drive throughs.
> That will give us a clear picture of true case fatality and how contagious it 
> is.
> Those numbers can then drive policy.
> 
> If he is wrong, we could be the next Italy. If the feds and states and cities 
> are
> being overly cautious, things will be back to normal pretty soon.
> 
> Garcetti put everyone in lockdown tonight, and then Newsom did the same for
> the entire state of CA, or something like 37 million people. Interesting 
> times.
> 
> Still waiting for the wave to break at work. We have a few cases, all elective
> surgery is cancelled, all staff who can telecommute are doing so, all meetings
> that can be done by phone are being done by phone. Lots of contingency
> planning because Italy has lots of healthcare workers out with infection. We
> remain very short of N95 masks. Not sure when that situation will improve.
> Trump approved all the industrial n95 masks for sale to hospitals, but I think
> many of them had already been hoarded by individuals. Basically you need a
> bunny suit, an N95 and a face shield to stay healthy if dealing with large
> numbers of infected patients.
> 
> I dont have a problem with doing simple things to slow this down while we get
> a better handle on it. Most of us believe it is out there multiplying, because
> that is what contagious viruses do. Even if distancing only gives us some time
> to get n95 masks to hospitals to protect doctors, nurses and other staff, it 
> will
> have been worth doing.
> 
> The hospitalized are pretty every divided age group wise. Young people are
> dying in this thing. Not as often as old people, but often enough for everyone
> to think seriously about it on a personal level. Not too many contagious 
> things
> put 20, 30, 40, 50 and 60 year olds in the hospital at similar rates. That is 
> what
> is happening. Old people are recovering less, but lots of young people are
> being hospitalized with viral pneumonia.
> 
> Let's all hope the true prevalence of asymptomatic infection is much higher
> than suspected and that the case fatality rates are wild overestimates.
> 
> Karl
> 
> 
> 
> On Thu, Mar 19, 2020, 1:43 PM Meade Dillon via Mercedes <
> mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:
> 
> > First the good new: Cure?
> >
> >
> > https://nypost.com/2020/03/19/old-malaria-drug-hydroxychloroquine-may-
> > help-cure-coronavirus-study/
> >
> > Next the contrarian.
> >
> >
> > https://www.thecollegefix.com/stanford-epidemiologist-warns-that-coron
> > avirus-crackdown-is-based-on-bad-data/
> >
> > "A population-wide case fatality rate of 0.05% is lower than seasonal
> > influenza. If that is the true rate, locking down the world with
> > potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be
> > totally irrational. It’s like an elephant being attacked by a house
> > cat. Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally
> > jumps off a cliff and dies."
> > -
> > Max
> > Charleston SC
> > ___
> > http://www.okiebenz.com
> >
> > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/
> >
> > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to:
> > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
> >
> >
> ___
> http://www.okiebenz.com
> 
> To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/
> 
> To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to:
> http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com



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Re: [MBZ] OT: A contrarian view on COVID-19, plus good news - there's a CURE!

[Karl Wittnebel via Mercedes]

Every medical center treating these patients, including ours, is using
hydroxychloroquine. It is an old and well known drug. Not a cure by any
means. We hope it helps.

The epideliologic evidence is extremely poor quality; I will give him
that.  But the lack of high quality evidence applies to his position also.

As is so often the case, this situation boils down to what to do in the
absence of evidence. If everybody taking it easy for a week or three gives
us some time to get better data, I am all for it. The testing is ramping up
by the day and it will not be long until we have on demand testing for
everyone at drive throughs. That will give us a clear picture of true case
fatality and how contagious it is. Those numbers can then drive policy.

If he is wrong, we could be the next Italy. If the feds and states and
cities are being overly cautious, things will be back to normal pretty
soon.

Garcetti put everyone in lockdown tonight, and then Newsom did the same for
the entire state of CA, or something like 37 million people. Interesting
times.

Still waiting for the wave to break at work. We have a few cases, all
elective surgery is cancelled, all staff who can telecommute are doing so,
all meetings that can be done by phone are being done by phone. Lots of
contingency planning because Italy has lots of healthcare workers out with
infection. We remain very short of N95 masks. Not sure when that situation
will improve. Trump approved all the industrial n95 masks for sale to
hospitals, but I think many of them had already been hoarded by
individuals. Basically you need a bunny suit, an N95 and a face shield to
stay healthy if dealing with large numbers of infected patients.

I dont have a problem with doing simple things to slow this down while we
get a better handle on it. Most of us believe it is out there multiplying,
because that is what contagious viruses do. Even if distancing only gives
us some time to get n95 masks to hospitals to protect doctors, nurses and
other staff, it will have been worth doing.

The hospitalized are pretty every divided age group wise. Young people are
dying in this thing. Not as often as old people, but often enough for
everyone to think seriously about it on a personal level. Not too many
contagious things put 20, 30, 40, 50 and 60 year olds in the hospital at
similar rates. That is what is happening. Old people are recovering less,
but lots of young people are being hospitalized with viral pneumonia.

Let's all hope the true prevalence of asymptomatic infection is much higher
than suspected and that the case fatality rates are wild overestimates.

Karl



On Thu, Mar 19, 2020, 1:43 PM Meade Dillon via Mercedes <
mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:

> First the good new: Cure?
>
>
> https://nypost.com/2020/03/19/old-malaria-drug-hydroxychloroquine-may-help-cure-coronavirus-study/
>
> Next the contrarian.
>
>
> https://www.thecollegefix.com/stanford-epidemiologist-warns-that-coronavirus-crackdown-is-based-on-bad-data/
>
> "A population-wide case fatality rate of 0.05% is lower than seasonal
> influenza. If that is the true rate, locking down the world with
> potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally
> irrational. It’s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated
> and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff
> and dies."
> -
> Max
> Charleston SC
> ___
> http://www.okiebenz.com
>
> To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/
>
> To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to:
> http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
>
>
___
http://www.okiebenz.com

To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/

To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to:
http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com

Re: [MBZ] OT: A contrarian view on COVID-19, plus good news - there's a CURE!

[Andrew Strasfogel via Mercedes]

That was a sobering statement, even if proven wrong in some details.  I'm
going to be a lot more careful from now on.

On Thu, Mar 19, 2020, 5:54 PM Floyd Thursby via Mercedes <
mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:

> FWIW
>
> I presume this is accurate, from a coupla days ago, tracks with I am
> told by Dr. Boy,  YMMV:
>
> Public
>  From one of the doctors here at Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Dr. Julie
> Silver and her friend Dr. Reem Ghalib. Please read the whole thing, it
> is an important summary about COVID19, flattening the curve and what
> will happen if we don’t take strict precautions now:
> Julie said —“It has been years since I have posted anything on this
> page. As a physician at Harvard Medical School, I have amazing access to
> the best information and resources for #Covid19
> <
> https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/covid19?__cft__[0]=AZVmJtN48VKSOSd9Annc4RuQsL5qHRN_49fzxk2-Eo3WGMh3XfINI25bY9K3hAeHCxMCgiE6H2ZsKCNQP5lHwizcxJn7NtmrLOEE92wMWGxAiKQvIxxv1kI_NIdBFQ7jez2Kh68t9FG8dXNV6aS1Hx_F0TxhwKri9KUVxk8QLNbgrA&__tn__=*NK-y-R>.
>
> I know people are getting a lot of information, and not all of it is
> accurate. My friend Dr. Reem Ghalib summarized the situation in one of
> the best social media posts to date on this topic (copied/pasted below).
> Please read what she has to say and share with your loved ones, friends,
> and colleagues. Urge people to be calm and logical in their decision
> making. Err on the side of caution. Re the info below--note that
> "coronavirus" is used generically to mean the specific strain Covid 19.
> I will apologize in advance for not responding to comments as work is
> very hectic right now:
> Dear Friends,
> So much confusion, misinformation and denial is bouncing around on
> social media about the coronavirus that I thought I would try to
> explain, in plain language, why the experts see this as such an emergency.
> You will see the claim online that this virus is a lot like the viruses
> that cause colds, and that if you get it, it will probably just seem
> like a bad cold and you are very unlikely to die. Depending on who you
> are, these statements are probably true. But they are incomplete, and
> the missing information is the key to understanding the problem.
> This is a coronavirus that is new to the human population, jumping into
> people late last year from some kind of animal, probably at a wildlife
> market in Wuhan, China. It is related to the viruses that cause colds,
> and acts a lot like them in many ways. It is very easy to transmit
> through the respiratory droplets that all of us give off. But nobody has
> ever been exposed to this before, which means nobody has any immunity to
> it.
> The virus is now moving explosively through the human population. While
> most people will recover, about 20 percent of the people who catch it
> will wind up with a serious disease. They will get pneumonia that causes
> shortness of breath, and they may need hospitalization.
> Some of those people will get so sick that they cannot be saved and will
> die of the pneumonia. The overall death rate for people who develop
> symptoms seems to be 2 or 3 percent. Once we have enough testing to find
> out how many people caught the virus but did not develop symptoms, that
> might come down to about 1 percent, optimistically.
> This is a large number. It is at least 10 times higher than the
> mortality rate for the seasonal flu, for instance, which in some years
> kills 60,000 or 70,000 Americans. So just on that math, we could be
> looking at 600,000 or 700,000 dead in the United States. But it gets worse.
> Older people with existing health problems are much more vulnerable, on
> average. The mortality rate of coronavirus among people over age 80 may
> be 15 or 20 percent. It appears to have 7 or 8 percent mortality for
> people aged 70 to 79. Here is the terrible part: If you are a healthy
> younger person, you can catch the virus and, without developing serious
> symptoms yourself, you can pass it along to older people. In other
> words, as the virus spreads, it is going to be very easy to go out and
> catch it, give it to your grandmother and kill her, even though you will
> not die yourself. You can catch it by touching a door knob or an
> elevator button.
> Scientists measure the spread of an epidemic by a number called R0, or
> “R naught.” That number is calculated this way: for every person who
> develops the illness, how many other people do they give it to before
> they are cured (or dead) and no longer infectious? The R0 for
> coronavirus, in the absence of a control strategy, appears to be a
> number close to 3 – maybe a bit higher or lower, but in that ballpark.
> This is an extremely frightening number for such a deadly disease.
> Suppose you catch the virus. You will give it to 3 other people, and
> they will each give it to three others, and so forth. Here is how the
> math works, where you, the “index case,” are the first line:
> 1
> 3
> 9
> 27
> 81
> 243
> 729
> 

Re: [MBZ] OT: A contrarian view on COVID-19, plus good news - there's a CURE!

[Floyd Thursby via Mercedes]

FWIW

I presume this is accurate, from a coupla days ago, tracks with I am 
told by Dr. Boy,  YMMV:


Public
From one of the doctors here at Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Dr. Julie 
Silver and her friend Dr. Reem Ghalib. Please read the whole thing, it 
is an important summary about COVID19, flattening the curve and what 
will happen if we don’t take strict precautions now:
Julie said —“It has been years since I have posted anything on this 
page. As a physician at Harvard Medical School, I have amazing access to 
the best information and resources for #Covid19 
. 
I know people are getting a lot of information, and not all of it is 
accurate. My friend Dr. Reem Ghalib summarized the situation in one of 
the best social media posts to date on this topic (copied/pasted below). 
Please read what she has to say and share with your loved ones, friends, 
and colleagues. Urge people to be calm and logical in their decision 
making. Err on the side of caution. Re the info below--note that 
"coronavirus" is used generically to mean the specific strain Covid 19. 
I will apologize in advance for not responding to comments as work is 
very hectic right now:

Dear Friends,
So much confusion, misinformation and denial is bouncing around on 
social media about the coronavirus that I thought I would try to 
explain, in plain language, why the experts see this as such an emergency.
You will see the claim online that this virus is a lot like the viruses 
that cause colds, and that if you get it, it will probably just seem 
like a bad cold and you are very unlikely to die. Depending on who you 
are, these statements are probably true. But they are incomplete, and 
the missing information is the key to understanding the problem.
This is a coronavirus that is new to the human population, jumping into 
people late last year from some kind of animal, probably at a wildlife 
market in Wuhan, China. It is related to the viruses that cause colds, 
and acts a lot like them in many ways. It is very easy to transmit 
through the respiratory droplets that all of us give off. But nobody has 
ever been exposed to this before, which means nobody has any immunity to it.
The virus is now moving explosively through the human population. While 
most people will recover, about 20 percent of the people who catch it 
will wind up with a serious disease. They will get pneumonia that causes 
shortness of breath, and they may need hospitalization.
Some of those people will get so sick that they cannot be saved and will 
die of the pneumonia. The overall death rate for people who develop 
symptoms seems to be 2 or 3 percent. Once we have enough testing to find 
out how many people caught the virus but did not develop symptoms, that 
might come down to about 1 percent, optimistically.
This is a large number. It is at least 10 times higher than the 
mortality rate for the seasonal flu, for instance, which in some years 
kills 60,000 or 70,000 Americans. So just on that math, we could be 
looking at 600,000 or 700,000 dead in the United States. But it gets worse.
Older people with existing health problems are much more vulnerable, on 
average. The mortality rate of coronavirus among people over age 80 may 
be 15 or 20 percent. It appears to have 7 or 8 percent mortality for 
people aged 70 to 79. Here is the terrible part: If you are a healthy 
younger person, you can catch the virus and, without developing serious 
symptoms yourself, you can pass it along to older people. In other 
words, as the virus spreads, it is going to be very easy to go out and 
catch it, give it to your grandmother and kill her, even though you will 
not die yourself. You can catch it by touching a door knob or an 
elevator button.
Scientists measure the spread of an epidemic by a number called R0, or 
“R naught.” That number is calculated this way: for every person who 
develops the illness, how many other people do they give it to before 
they are cured (or dead) and no longer infectious? The R0 for 
coronavirus, in the absence of a control strategy, appears to be a 
number close to 3 – maybe a bit higher or lower, but in that ballpark. 
This is an extremely frightening number for such a deadly disease.
Suppose you catch the virus. You will give it to 3 other people, and 
they will each give it to three others, and so forth. Here is how the 
math works, where you, the “index case,” are the first line:

1
3
9
27
81
243
729
2,187
6,561
19,683
59,046
177,147
531,441
1,594,323
4,782,969
14,348,907
So, in just 15 steps of transmission, the virus has gone from just one 
index case to 14.3 million other people. Those 15 steps might take only 
a few weeks. The index person may be young and healthy, but many of 
those 14 million people will 

[MBZ] OT: A contrarian view on COVID-19, plus good news - there's a CURE!

[Meade Dillon via Mercedes]

First the good new: Cure?

https://nypost.com/2020/03/19/old-malaria-drug-hydroxychloroquine-may-help-cure-coronavirus-study/

Next the contrarian.

https://www.thecollegefix.com/stanford-epidemiologist-warns-that-coronavirus-crackdown-is-based-on-bad-data/

"A population-wide case fatality rate of 0.05% is lower than seasonal
influenza. If that is the true rate, locking down the world with
potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally
irrational. It’s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated
and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff
and dies."
-
Max
Charleston SC
___
http://www.okiebenz.com

To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/

To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to:
http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com