RE: [Mpls] Primary Turnout
I need to correct myself, thanks to the insight of a more politically experienced list member. To recap: > Greg Abbott notes: > > > given that turnout in the general election will more than double, > > perhaps even triple, from the primary, drawing any conclusions from > > Tuesday's results is a fool's errand. Then I wrote: > I would be shocked if the vote tripled. In 2001, 59,000 folks voted in the > primary, 89,000 in the general - a 50 percent jump. > > Granted, this year's turnout (33,500) was a lot lower, so the bump may be > higher. But tripling this year's number would mean 100,000 general election > votes - 11,000 more than four years ago. The experienced operative remembered that '01 was a low-turnout general election, Even though we all remember the fascinating scrum of a primary, the general was apparently quite lackluster, historically. To wit: in the '97 general, 96,700 people voted. Only 30,000 people voted in the primary - so the vote total more than tripled in the general. In '93, 104,626 voted. 51,000 voted in the primary - a doubling between primary and general So ... '01 was an unusual year (out of the last three city elections anyway). Primary participation was far higher, and general election turnout was 10-15 percent lower. I have to conclude that a tripling could happen this year, and Greg was right to mention it as a possibility. David Brauer Kingfield REMINDERS: 1. Be civil! Please read the NEW RULES at http://www.e-democracy.org/rules. If you think a member is in violation, contact the list manager at [EMAIL PROTECTED] before continuing it on the list. 2. Don't feed the troll! Ignore obvious flame-bait. For state and national discussions see: http://e-democracy.org/discuss.html For external forums, see: http://e-democracy.org/mninteract Minneapolis Issues Forum - A Civil City-focused Civic Discussion - Mn E-Democracy Post messages to: mailto:mpls@mnforum.org Subscribe, Un-subscribe, etc. at: http://e-democracy.org/mpls
RE: [Mpls] Primary Turnout
Greg Abbott notes: > The results tell me that chronic voters (people who vote in every > election, rain or shine) have a slight preference for Rybak. But > given that turnout in the general election will more than double, > perhaps even triple, from the primary, drawing any conclusions from > Tuesday's results is a fool's errand. I would be shocked if the vote tripled. In 2001, 59,000 folks voted in the primary, 89,000 in the general - a 50 percent jump. Granted, this year's turnout (33,500) was a lot lower, so the bump may be higher. But tripling this year's number would mean 100,000 general election votes - 11,000 more than four years ago. One interesting note: despite the sad, sad turnout in the 2005 city primary, the 33,500 souls who trooped to the polls were more than in than the 2002 primary (32,869) or the 2004 primary (22,766). Those were state elections; there were no city races save the school board. Final thing: while no one would ever - EVER - pay me to crunch numbers for a campaign, I looked the last three campaigns to see how much a ward's percentage gained or shrunk from the primary to the general. Using that history and my own guesswork, I projected how much a precinct's slice of the electorate would change. For example, I expect Ward 4, which provided 4 percent of the primary votes, to provide 5 percent in the general election. In order, Wards 5, 4, 6 and 3 will gain the most "share," while Wards 13, 1, 12 and 7 will lose the most. Despite having a smaller piece of the general election pie than in the primary, Ward 13 will still be the biggest piece: it will have the highest turnout, as it has in every election of the 2000s. By my guess, Peter should gain as his wards historically gain share in a general election. Assuming Hakeem votes split 50/50, and so do non-primary voters who show up Nov. 8, Peter would get 45.3 percent of the vote and RT would get 54.7 percent. That compares to 44.7/55.4 in the primary, if you exclude votes for everyone else. Of course, no one knows what any voting group will do, so keep this for laffs later on. David Brauer Kingfield REMINDERS: 1. Be civil! Please read the NEW RULES at http://www.e-democracy.org/rules. If you think a member is in violation, contact the list manager at [EMAIL PROTECTED] before continuing it on the list. 2. Don't feed the troll! Ignore obvious flame-bait. For state and national discussions see: http://e-democracy.org/discuss.html For external forums, see: http://e-democracy.org/mninteract Minneapolis Issues Forum - A Civil City-focused Civic Discussion - Mn E-Democracy Post messages to: mailto:mpls@mnforum.org Subscribe, Un-subscribe, etc. at: http://e-democracy.org/mpls
Re: [Mpls] Primary Turnout
On Sep 15, 2005, at 7:21 PM, Erik Riese wrote: This is pathetic! We need to do something about how little the citizens care about their government. Perhaps we should institute an election quorum. Say 60% in a primary and 85% in a general. Unless we get that level of participation the election is void and we have to have a do over. At some point we could force a rotation of the candidates. The candidates would be forced to put their efforts into real get out the vote instead of just getting out their voters. this is somewhat facetious, but I think we ought to run elections like MPR runs their fund-raising pledge drives. Start the election on, say, Friday and run it through the following Friday. Every day -- on every broadcast station -- announce what the voter turnout percentages are (but not the counts for individual candidates). Exhort folks to "do your share." Guilt folks to "do your share." Offer premiums for voting (uh, guess not -- strike that). Once the participation goal is met, turn off the exhortation(s) but let the polls stay open until the end. Of course, we political junkies will need to sit on pins and needles for a week to know what the outcome is ... just imagine the tone of the posts on lists like this (grin) Rick Mons Shoreview - Tanglewood Area REMINDERS: 1. Be civil! Please read the NEW RULES at http://www.e-democracy.org/rules. If you think a member is in violation, contact the list manager at [EMAIL PROTECTED] before continuing it on the list. 2. Don't feed the troll! Ignore obvious flame-bait. For state and national discussions see: http://e-democracy.org/discuss.html For external forums, see: http://e-democracy.org/mninteract Minneapolis Issues Forum - A Civil City-focused Civic Discussion - Mn E-Democracy Post messages to: mailto:mpls@mnforum.org Subscribe, Un-subscribe, etc. at: http://e-democracy.org/mpls
Re: [Mpls] Primary Turnout
Here's the scenario:
Incumbent Mayor running for re-election for the first time in a primary
against a well known, elected official who is charging that the
incumbent hasn't done enough about crime or neighborhood development,
and questioning the budget decisions over the past 4 years. Although
there are other candidates running, it is clear that the incumbent and
the challenger will come through the primary.
The primary has low turnout, in the 14 percents, with the challenger
coming in 2nd with 35 percent of the vote.
2005? No, sorry, 1997: Barbara Carlson vs. SSB. The general election
has SSB winning 55-45.
Now of course I'm sure many will point out differences between 1997 and
2005. I agree, it's not a perfect apples to apples comparison. The
point is that there isn't a whole lot clamering for change among
the "joe schmoe" voter out there. Contrary to what was stated below,
there was something at stake out on Tuesday and that was to send a
message that we aren't happy with the direction of the City and the
Mayor running the ship. Given the fact that there was a legitimate
challenger with a solid base of support from the typical interests who
have a stake in the outcome of the mayoral race who could only muster
35 percent of the vote speaks volumes about his chances 7 weeks from
now.
Dean E. Carlson
East harriet, Ward 10
- Original Message -
From: Greg Abbott <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: Friday, September 16, 2005 9:53 am
Subject: Re: [Mpls] Primary Turnout
> It is a mistake to draw conclusions from this low turnout primary
> election.
>
> There was nothing at stake in this election. Both Rybak and
> McLaughlin were going to advance to the general, and supporters on
>
> both sides knew that. Given the low stakes, plenty of folks in
> both
> camps sat this one out, particularly given the rainy start to the
> day. This is also true of the most council races. Most wards did
>
> not have a primary or a hotly contested race. The only real drama
>
> was in 8, 10, and 13.
>
> The results tell me that chronic voters (people who vote in every
> election, rain or shine) have a slight preference for Rybak. But
> given that turnout in the general election will more than double,
> perhaps even triple, from the primary, drawing any conclusions
> from
> Tuesday's results is a fool's errand.
>
> As an example, take the 13th Ward. Betsy Hodges got over 50
> percent
> in this primary, which is amazing for a DFL-endorsed candidate in
> 13. Yet her total vote was only about 2700. When I ran and lost
> in
> 13 four years ago, I got 4724 votes in the general election. The
> vote totals for the winning candidate in the last three general
> elections ('93, '97, and '01) were approximately 6800, 7400, and
> 5700, respectively. Hodges needs to find another 3000-3500 votes
> to
> win, and in Ward 13 that's going to be a challenge for a DFL-
> endorsed
> candidate.
>
> So it's a mulligan for everyone. Tee it up, and take another
> swing
> in November.
>
> Greg Abbott
> Linden Hills
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Re: [Mpls] Primary Turnout
It is a mistake to draw conclusions from this low turnout primary
election.
There was nothing at stake in this election. Both Rybak and
McLaughlin were going to advance to the general, and supporters on
both sides knew that. Given the low stakes, plenty of folks in both
camps sat this one out, particularly given the rainy start to the
day. This is also true of the most council races. Most wards did
not have a primary or a hotly contested race. The only real drama
was in 8, 10, and 13.
The results tell me that chronic voters (people who vote in every
election, rain or shine) have a slight preference for Rybak. But
given that turnout in the general election will more than double,
perhaps even triple, from the primary, drawing any conclusions from
Tuesday's results is a fool's errand.
As an example, take the 13th Ward. Betsy Hodges got over 50 percent
in this primary, which is amazing for a DFL-endorsed candidate in
13. Yet her total vote was only about 2700. When I ran and lost in
13 four years ago, I got 4724 votes in the general election. The
vote totals for the winning candidate in the last three general
elections ('93, '97, and '01) were approximately 6800, 7400, and
5700, respectively. Hodges needs to find another 3000-3500 votes to
win, and in Ward 13 that's going to be a challenge for a DFL-endorsed
candidate.
So it's a mulligan for everyone. Tee it up, and take another swing
in November.
Greg Abbott
Linden Hills
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2. Don't feed the troll! Ignore obvious flame-bait.
For state and national discussions see: http://e-democracy.org/discuss.html
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Re: [Mpls] Primary Turnout
I'll agree that overall the low voter turnout is pathetic, but I do want to defend the honor of my old neighborhood. Precinct 3-1 is Dinkytown, where a great portion of the registered voters in the voter file have moved and a great number (probably a majority) of the eligible voters have only moved into the neighborhood within the last month. A lot of student voters are simply not motivated by local city issues and are seldom targeted by campaigns to engage their interest. In the neighboring precincts in the Second Ward students are getting a lot more attention from the campaigns, but I haven't heard of any similar effort being made by the Hofstede or Neumann campaigns. I don't think that's necessarily neglect, since the Third Ward stretches into three distinct communities (North, Northeast and Southeast) and I'm sure there are plenty of neighborhood events that are demanding their attention. Loki Anderson Downtown (formerly Dinkytown) Erik Riese <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: Greetings List! Many folks have mentioned turnout in the Citywide Primary. Unofficial totals show 14.67% city wide. Singling out Ward 3 Precinct 1 2.14% of the registered voters showed up to vote! This is pathetic! We need to do something about how little the citizens care about their government. Perhaps we should institute an election quorum. Say 60% in a primary and 85% in a general. Unless we get that level of participation the election is void and we have to have a do over. At some point we could force a rotation of the candidates. The candidates would be forced to put their efforts into real get out the vote instead of just getting out their voters. Minneapolis should lead the way in voter turn-out the MPLS-Issues list is a tool that should inspire participation. We need to change what is going on. In cooperation, Erik Riese Seward US@: A great place to live, work, learn, create and play. ~~~ mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] ~~~ REMINDERS: 1. Be civil! Please read the NEW RULES at http://www.e-democracy.org/rules. If you think a member is in violation, contact the list manager at [EMAIL PROTECTED] before continuing it on the list. 2. Don't feed the troll! Ignore obvious flame-bait. For state and national discussions see: http://e-democracy.org/discuss.html For external forums, see: http://e-democracy.org/mninteract Minneapolis Issues Forum - A Civil City-focused Civic Discussion - Mn E-Democracy Post messages to: mailto:mpls@mnforum.org Subscribe, Un-subscribe, etc. at: http://e-democracy.org/mpls - Yahoo! for Good Click here to donate to the Hurricane Katrina relief effort. REMINDERS: 1. Be civil! Please read the NEW RULES at http://www.e-democracy.org/rules. If you think a member is in violation, contact the list manager at [EMAIL PROTECTED] before continuing it on the list. 2. Don't feed the troll! Ignore obvious flame-bait. For state and national discussions see: http://e-democracy.org/discuss.html For external forums, see: http://e-democracy.org/mninteract Minneapolis Issues Forum - A Civil City-focused Civic Discussion - Mn E-Democracy Post messages to: mailto:mpls@mnforum.org Subscribe, Un-subscribe, etc. at: http://e-democracy.org/mpls
Re: [Mpls] Primary Turnout
On Thursday, September 15, 2005, at 07:21 PM, Erik Riese wrote: Perhaps we should institute an election quorum. Say 60% in a primary and 85% in a general. Unless we get that level of participation the election is void and we have to have a do over. At some point we could force a rotation of the candidates. The candidates would be forced to put their efforts into real get out the vote instead of just getting out their voters. I don't believe the cause of low voter turnout is lack of candidate effort, therefore, forcing candidates to meet voter quotas will not have the result desired. Unless a society wide responsibility is undertaken, voter turnout will continue to dwindle. Long before I was a candidate I worked on get out the vote campaigns. These efforts are needed many times over for the same voters and for new voters. I'm a supporter of engaging younger people and lowering the voting age to 16. When we see low voter turnouts in these local elections it is a call to all of us to work for the civic good together. Representative government works best when it is highly representative of voter choice. Nevertheless, when 15% of the voters choose, that is still representative government, but the 85% have given away their power of choice. That's the message that needs to be broadly communicated: don't let others choose your government for you. Best wishes, Laura Southeast (Como Neighborhood) Laura Waterman Wittstock Candidate for Minneapolis Library Board of Trustees DFL and Labor endorsed AFSCME Mn Council 5 AFL-CIO COPE Minneapolis Building and Trades Stonewall DFL Minnesota Women's Political Caucus www.laurawatermanwittstock.com http://laurawatermanwittstock.blogspot.com/ Wittstock for Library Committee 913 19th Avenue SE, Mpls, 55414 Minneapolis, MN 612-387-4915 REMINDERS: 1. Be civil! Please read the NEW RULES at http://www.e-democracy.org/rules. If you think a member is in violation, contact the list manager at [EMAIL PROTECTED] before continuing it on the list. 2. Don't feed the troll! Ignore obvious flame-bait. For state and national discussions see: http://e-democracy.org/discuss.html For external forums, see: http://e-democracy.org/mninteract Minneapolis Issues Forum - A Civil City-focused Civic Discussion - Mn E-Democracy Post messages to: mailto:mpls@mnforum.org Subscribe, Un-subscribe, etc. at: http://e-democracy.org/mpls
[Mpls] Primary Turnout
Greetings List! Many folks have mentioned turnout in the Citywide Primary. Unofficial totals show 14.67% city wide. Singling out Ward 3 Precinct 1 2.14% of the registered voters showed up to vote! This is pathetic! We need to do something about how little the citizens care about their government. Perhaps we should institute an election quorum. Say 60% in a primary and 85% in a general. Unless we get that level of participation the election is void and we have to have a do over. At some point we could force a rotation of the candidates. The candidates would be forced to put their efforts into real get out the vote instead of just getting out their voters. Minneapolis should lead the way in voter turn-out the MPLS-Issues list is a tool that should inspire participation. We need to change what is going on. In cooperation, Erik Riese Seward US@: A great place to live, work, learn, create and play. ~~~ mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] ~~~ REMINDERS: 1. Be civil! Please read the NEW RULES at http://www.e-democracy.org/rules. If you think a member is in violation, contact the list manager at [EMAIL PROTECTED] before continuing it on the list. 2. Don't feed the troll! Ignore obvious flame-bait. For state and national discussions see: http://e-democracy.org/discuss.html For external forums, see: http://e-democracy.org/mninteract Minneapolis Issues Forum - A Civil City-focused Civic Discussion - Mn E-Democracy Post messages to: mailto:mpls@mnforum.org Subscribe, Un-subscribe, etc. at: http://e-democracy.org/mpls
