Re: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

2011-09-07 Thread Chrisjfenton
Most networks have been trying to avoid that, building out a quarterly pop 
thing,... problem is now its an ongoing cumulative quarterly pop across many 
years,  With pent up frustrated consumer demand for more and more 
videoincluding face time on these apple devices!  

Iridescent iPhone 
+1 972 757 8894



On 7 Sep 2011, at 11:40, Joel jaeggli  wrote:

> On 9/7/11 09:37 , valdis.kletni...@vt.edu wrote:
>> On Wed, 07 Sep 2011 09:28:28 PDT, Joel jaeggli said:
>> 
>>> The way to achieve a return on invested capital is to attract and retain
>>> customers who pay for a service which they find compelling.
>> 
>> Only true if long-term returns on investment are suitable for consideration
>> instead of short-term returns.
> 
> When was the last time you built out a network plant for a quarterly pop?
> 
> 



Re: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

2011-09-07 Thread Cameron Byrne
On Wed, Sep 7, 2011 at 9:28 AM, Joel jaeggli  wrote:
> On 9/7/11 09:02 , Michael Holstein wrote:
>>
>>> I would love a world where engineering was consulted by marketing :(
>>>
>>
>> Wouldn't be a problem is management invested based on engineering's
>> recommendations.
>>
>> There are few problems that money can't solve .. in this case, it's
>> "sure, we can offer unlimited bandwidth, we just need to build (x) new
>> towers at this map of locations, based on our usage patterns".
>
> The way to achieve a return on invested capital is to attract and retain
> customers who pay for a service which they find compelling.

Good simplification, but i think this thread is about the word "pay"
 who and how much.



Re: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

2011-09-07 Thread Joel jaeggli
On 9/7/11 09:37 , valdis.kletni...@vt.edu wrote:
> On Wed, 07 Sep 2011 09:28:28 PDT, Joel jaeggli said:
> 
>> The way to achieve a return on invested capital is to attract and retain
>> customers who pay for a service which they find compelling.
> 
> Only true if long-term returns on investment are suitable for consideration
> instead of short-term returns.

When was the last time you built out a network plant for a quarterly pop?




Re: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

2011-09-07 Thread Valdis . Kletnieks
On Wed, 07 Sep 2011 09:28:28 PDT, Joel jaeggli said:

> The way to achieve a return on invested capital is to attract and retain
> customers who pay for a service which they find compelling.

Only true if long-term returns on investment are suitable for consideration
instead of short-term returns.



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Description: PGP signature


Re: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

2011-09-07 Thread Joel jaeggli
On 9/7/11 09:02 , Michael Holstein wrote:
> 
>> I would love a world where engineering was consulted by marketing :(
>>   
> 
> Wouldn't be a problem is management invested based on engineering's
> recommendations.
> 
> There are few problems that money can't solve .. in this case, it's
> "sure, we can offer unlimited bandwidth, we just need to build (x) new
> towers at this map of locations, based on our usage patterns".

The way to achieve a return on invested capital is to attract and retain
customers who pay for a service which they find compelling.

> Michael Holstein
> Cleveland State University
> 
> 




Re: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

2011-09-07 Thread Michael Holstein

> I would love a world where engineering was consulted by marketing :(
>   

Wouldn't be a problem is management invested based on engineering's
recommendations.

There are few problems that money can't solve .. in this case, it's
"sure, we can offer unlimited bandwidth, we just need to build (x) new
towers at this map of locations, based on our usage patterns".

Michael Holstein
Cleveland State University




Re: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

2011-09-06 Thread Scott Weeks


--- v.jo...@networkingunlimited.com wrote:
From: Vincent C Jones 
> --- br...@bryanfields.net wrote:
> From: Bryan Fields 
> 
> I would love a world where engineering was consulted by marketing :(
> -
> 
> WAKE UP  You're dreaming out loud...  >;-)

Not necessarily...I've been in computer networking going on 40 years and
I've only had one employer where engineering was NOT consulted by
marketing, and that was the military, which did not have marketing :-) 

Of course, my case may be a few sigma away from normal, because I've
only had two other employers since then-- Hewlett Packard back when they
were still a techie company and myself. As an independent consultant, I
am marketing, so I can only blame myself if marketing does not consult
engineering :-D
---



How about (yelling again...)

WAKE UP  You're Rumpelstiltskining  :-)

scott





Re: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

2011-09-06 Thread Vincent C Jones

> --- br...@bryanfields.net wrote:
> From: Bryan Fields 
> 
> I would love a world where engineering was consulted by marketing :(
> -
> 
> WAKE UP  You're dreaming out loud...  >;-)

Not necessarily...I've been in computer networking going on 40 years and
I've only had one employer where engineering was NOT consulted by
marketing, and that was the military, which did not have marketing :-) 

Of course, my case may be a few sigma away from normal, because I've
only had two other employers since then-- Hewlett Packard back when they
were still a techie company and myself. As an independent consultant, I
am marketing, so I can only blame myself if marketing does not consult
engineering :-D

Vince
-- 
Vincent C. Jones
Networking Unlimited, Inc.
Phone: +1 201 568-7810
v.jo...@networkingunlimited.com






Re: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

2011-09-06 Thread Bryan Fields
On 9/5/2011 22:39, Jay Ashworth wrote:
> - Original Message -
>> From: "Joel jaeggli" 
> 
>> having customers that want to use your service is rarely a bad thing.
> 
> Ask a chief engineer at a national wireless carrier who told his 
> administrative
> bosses that selling "unlimited" wireless data was a Pretty Neat Idea if he
> thinks that's a good generalization to make, Joel.  :-)

Jay, are you saying the engineers in a wireless telecom company are driving
what plans to offer?  Hate to say it, but that's all done by marketing, and
engineering normally finds out about the plans they offer by seeing the
PDSN/SGSN going into overload :D

I would love a world where engineering was consulted by marketing :(
-- 
Bryan Fields

727-409-1194 - Voice
727-214-2508 - Fax
http://bryanfields.net



Re: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

2011-09-06 Thread Scott Weeks


--- br...@bryanfields.net wrote:
From: Bryan Fields 

I would love a world where engineering was consulted by marketing :(
-



WAKE UP  You're dreaming out loud...  >;-)

scott






Re: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

2011-09-05 Thread Jay Ashworth
- Original Message -
> From: "Joel jaeggli" 

> having customers that want to use your service is rarely a bad thing.

Ask a chief engineer at a national wireless carrier who told his administrative
bosses that selling "unlimited" wireless data was a Pretty Neat Idea if he
thinks that's a good generalization to make, Joel.  :-)

Cheers,
-- jra
-- 
Jay R. Ashworth  Baylink   j...@baylink.com
Designer The Things I Think   RFC 2100
Ashworth & Associates http://baylink.pitas.com 2000 Land Rover DII
St Petersburg FL USA  http://photo.imageinc.us +1 727 647 1274



Re: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

2011-09-05 Thread Joel jaeggli
On 9/3/11 04:20 , Skeeve Stevens wrote:
> Hey all,
> 
> I've been thinking about the impact that iCloud (by Apple) will have
> on the Internet.
> 
> My guess is that 99% of consumer internet access is Asymmetrical
> (DSL, Cable, wireless, etc) and iCloud when launched will 'upload'
> obscene amounts of gigs of music, tv, backups, email, photos,
> documents/data and so on to their data centres.

It won't been obscene amounts, the free tier's quota is only 10GB. the
music which is probably the thing that moves into the the cloud the
fashion you described isn't moved into the cloud by uploading.

I'd expect the reads to dominate over writes so your traffic pattern
asymmetry is preserved.

> Now, don't misunderstand me, I love the concept of iCloud, as I do
> DropBox, but from an Access Providers perspective, I'm thinking this
> might be a 'bad thing'.

having customers that want to use your service is rarely a bad thing.

One of the things that this discussion point misses is that when you
operate at a distance from your data, you become rather sensitive to
latency. while apple is rather good about caching data locally, that
doesn't eliminate it from consideration.

> From what I can see there are some key issues:
> 
> *   Users with plans that count upload and download together. *   The
> speed of Asymmetric tail technology such as DSL *   The design of
> access provider backhaul (from DSLAM to core) metrics *   The design
> of some transit metrics
> 
> So basically the potential issue is that a large residential provider
> could have thousands of users connect to iCloud, their connections
> slowed because of uploading data, burning their included bandwidth
> caps, slowing down the backhaul segment of the network, and as
> residential providers are mostly download, some purchase transit from
> their upstreams in an symmetric fashion.
> 
> This post is really just to prompt discussion if people think there
> is anything to actually worry about, or there are other implications
> that I've not really thought of yet.

> …Skeeve
> 
> --
> 
> Skeeve Stevens, CEO - eintellego Pty Ltd - The Networking
> Specialists
> 
> ske...@eintellego.net ;
> www.eintellego.net
> 
> Phone: 1300 753 383 ; Fax: (+612) 8572 9954
> 
> Cell +61 (0)414 753 383 ; skype://skeeve
> 
> facebook.com/eintellego or
> eintell...@facebook.com
> 
> twitter.com/networkceoau ; www.linkedin.com/in/skeeve
> 
> PO Box 7726, Baulkham Hills, NSW 1755 Australia
> 
> 
> --
> 
> eintellego - The Experts that the Experts call
> 
> - Juniper - HP Networking - Cisco - Brocade
> 




Re: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

2011-09-04 Thread Jeff Wheeler
On Sun, Sep 4, 2011 at 4:45 PM, Wayne E Bouchard  wrote:
> Okay, so to state the obvious for those who missed the point...
>
> The congestion will either be directly in front of user because
> they're flooding their uplink or towards the destination (beit a
> single central network or a set of storage clusters housed at, say, 6
> different locations off 3 different providers.) It is very hard, in my

If scaling up Internet bandwidth were the hardest thing about
deploying SaaS / "cloud" services, don't you think transit vendors
would suddenly be more profitable than EMC and friends?  It should be
obvious to you, and everyone else, that datacenter Internet
connectivity is a trivial concern compared to everything else that
goes into these platforms.

-- 
Jeff S Wheeler 
Sr Network Operator  /  Innovative Network Concepts



Re: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

2011-09-04 Thread Wayne E Bouchard
On Sun, Sep 04, 2011 at 12:56:25PM +0200, Florian Weimer wrote:
> * Wayne E. Bouchard:
> 
> > the users will screw themselves by flooding their uplinks in which
> > case they will know what they've done to themselves and will largely
> > accept the problems for the durration
> 
> With shared media networks (or insufficient backhaul capacities),
> congestion affects more than just the customer causing it.

Okay, so to state the obvious for those who missed the point...

The congestion will either be directly in front of user because
they're flooding their uplink or towards the destination (beit a
single central network or a set of storage clusters housed at, say, 6
different locations off 3 different providers.) It is very hard, in my
experience, for something like this to congest the general
network. The congestion occurs where either bandwidth drops off--such
as with the edge dialup, DSL, or cable modem link--or traffic
concentrates. Just like someone broadcasting a concert. Either you as
a user can't receive the feed because your pipe isn't big enough for
the stream or the network/servers sourcing the traffic get bogged down
and, generally, the rest of the folks out there not watching the feed
don't know there's a problem. If you're not participating in that
traffic, the likelihood that you'll be impacted by it drops off
dramatically. Yes, the PTP model will behave a little differently but
in that case, you're more likely to see individual users having issues
(either hosts or clients) rather than everyone as a whole and it
*still* won't impact the broader network. The more "central clusters"
you add, the more the traffic pattern will start to behave like the
PTP scenario and the lower the probabilty of broad impact.

My point was simply that if you think it through, there really isn't
any reason to be concerned about it. (It can't be any worse than the
Jackson verdict or the Pope and, as far as I recall, since we're all
still here, I don't believe the world ended when those events
happened.)

-Wayne

---
Wayne Bouchard
w...@typo.org
Network Dude
http://www.typo.org/~web/



Re: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

2011-09-04 Thread Valdis . Kletnieks
On Sat, 03 Sep 2011 18:38:40 EDT, Jay Ashworth said:

> Two people making the same mistake: end-user support telephone calls don't 
> generally go to datacenters, do they? 

Maybe they've figured out how to let an AI answer the phones. All you need is
text-to-speech, speech-to-text, and the script the outsourced semi-trained
monkeys would have been using.

Or maybe they've not been outsourced at all, and 'Mumbai' is the codeword for
the data center, and it's all a coverup because even outsourcing a job is an
easier PR job than replacing somebody with a robot/computer. ;)



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Description: PGP signature


Re: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

2011-09-04 Thread Florian Weimer
* Wayne E. Bouchard:

> the users will screw themselves by flooding their uplinks in which
> case they will know what they've done to themselves and will largely
> accept the problems for the durration

With shared media networks (or insufficient backhaul capacities),
congestion affects more than just the customer causing it.



Re: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

2011-09-03 Thread Jay Ashworth
- Original Message -
> From: "Frank Bulk" 

> Subject: RE: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?
> The copper technologies of DOCSIS and xDSL are well established in
> residential deployments and they are asymmetric by design. I don't think
> near-symmetric speeds are on the CableLab's and Broadband Forum's short list
> of future features. Even GPON is 1:4. As more fiber is deployed, I believe
> deployments will eventually migrate to some variation of EPON where
> symmetricity is built into the design. In the meantime it is what it
> is.

That's as may be... but the real question, I think, is this:

What's the asymmetry of the *intermediate* networks?  It wouldn't make sense
for cablemodem providers to provision symmetric transport inside their MANs
if they didn't have to... so if they *don't* have to, how hard can the push it
with the way they're provisioned now?

Or is the transport natively symmetric, as I suspect, and they're just 
letting it all sit there on the return side.  Must gall their sisters... :-)

Cheers,
-- jra
-- 
Jay R. Ashworth  Baylink   j...@baylink.com
Designer The Things I Think   RFC 2100
Ashworth & Associates http://baylink.pitas.com 2000 Land Rover DII
St Petersburg FL USA  http://photo.imageinc.us +1 727 647 1274



RE: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

2011-09-03 Thread Frank Bulk
The copper technologies of DOCSIS and xDSL are well established in
residential deployments and they are asymmetric by design.  I don't think
near-symmetric speeds are on the CableLab's and Broadband Forum's short list
of future features.  Even GPON is 1:4.  As more fiber is deployed, I believe
deployments will eventually migrate to some variation of EPON where
symmetricity is built into the design.  In the meantime it is what it is.

Somewhat tangential, has anyone graphed out the upstream/downstream ratios
of the various technologies (various generations of dial-up, DSL, fiber,
etc)?

Frank

-Original Message-
From: Mohacsi Janos [mailto:moha...@niif.hu] 
Sent: Saturday, September 03, 2011 5:07 PM
To: Skeeve Stevens
Cc: nanog@nanog.org
Subject: Re: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?



In my opinion. Home networking (including personal clouds) have to change 
the brain damaged model of asymmetric tail technologies. Giving back the 
original peer-to-peer nature of networking the asymmetricity of the 
access technologies will not be tolerable in such a level (1:10) we have 
today. Maybe 1:2 should be more acceptable.

You don't have to worry bout this changes, but access provider cannot 
claim any longer 100MBps (while upload speed ~10 Mbps), but probably 60-70
Mbps (with upload ~ 30 Mbps) They have to retune access services.


Best Regards,

Janos




Re: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

2011-09-03 Thread Phil Pierotti
I'm not 100% certain and have no references to back it up but I recall
reading an article which described the Apple cloud music strategy as being
one where for existing identified music it merely stores a reference of some
kind against your account rather than actually storing an additional copy.
Presumably for the sake of sanity it would be implemented in the application
where it saves the end user the cost/time of uploading as well, if for no
other reason that said cost/time/cpu resource would also be a real cost to
Apple directly or indirectly.

Mumble-something about "even for your own music you have
ripped-not-purchased, pay $nominal-annual-fee and it magically becomes a
legal licensed object" (which obviously they did because then it becomes
something they have one single stored copy of with references on remote
accounts).

Phil P

On Sun, Sep 4, 2011 at 3:49 AM, Jimmy Hess  wrote:

> On Sat, Sep 3, 2011 at 6:20 AM, Skeeve Stevens 
> wrote:
>
> > My guess is that 99% of consumer internet access is Asymmetrical (DSL,
> Cable, wireless, etc) and iCloud when launched will 'upload' obscene amounts
> of gigs of music, tv, backups, email, photos, documents/data and so on to
> their data centres.
>
> What would be obscene about that is from a design POV it would be a
> waste of resources.
> "Music"  and "TV"content are from a small number of sources, and
> there are a massive potential number of users.
>
> What should happen is instead of transmitting  large video files...
> block checksums should be transmitted,
> and only files that are completely foreign should be transferred.
>
> Whereas everything else being "backed up"  is just an assignment of
> account access to existing blocks  that would
> already have been stored on the  content servers.
>
> And then also,   a user storing  10GB of music  would probably take
> only a  few megabytes of  their account space,
> once the "space used"  is evenly  divided by the number of users that
> have that block saved,
>
> since a majority of music files backed up would be file-identical
> with  material  someone else had already backed up,
> and identical to material  already in  the iTunes store  (which they
> could pre-seed their database with).
>
>
> --
> -JH
>
>


-- 
 two eyes to tease, an aargh ... an oh there's a pie in there somewhere
<


Re: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

2011-09-03 Thread Jay Ashworth
- Original Message -
> From: "Seth Mattinen" 

> On 9/3/11 2:02 PM, Jay Ashworth wrote:
> > - Original Message -
> >> From: "Wayne E Bouchard" 
> >
> >> and will largely accept the problems for the durration or b) (and
> >> far
> >> more likely) the links apple is using will become flooded or the
> >> systems overloaded in some way or another in which case the
> >> customers
> >> will say, "MAN, this *SUCKS*" and likely whine at apple.
> >
> > If you think that call traffic's going to *Apple*, either you're an
> > optimist,
> > or I'm nutsabago.
> 
> Well, Apple is building giant mysterious data centers for something.
> 
> http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/06/01/apples-new-data-center-is-visible-at-last-from-space/

Two people making the same mistake: end-user support telephone calls don't 
generally go to datacenters, do they? 

Cheers,
-- jra
-- 
Jay R. Ashworth  Baylink   j...@baylink.com
Designer The Things I Think   RFC 2100
Ashworth & Associates http://baylink.pitas.com 2000 Land Rover DII
St Petersburg FL USA  http://photo.imageinc.us +1 727 647 1274



Re: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

2011-09-03 Thread Seth Mattinen
On 9/3/11 2:02 PM, Jay Ashworth wrote:
> - Original Message -
>> From: "Wayne E Bouchard" 
> 
>> and will largely accept the problems for the durration or b) (and far
>> more likely) the links apple is using will become flooded or the
>> systems overloaded in some way or another in which case the customers
>> will say, "MAN, this *SUCKS*" and likely whine at apple.
> 
> If you think that call traffic's going to *Apple*, either you're an optimist,
> or I'm nutsabago.


Well, Apple is building giant mysterious data centers for something.

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/06/01/apples-new-data-center-is-visible-at-last-from-space/

~Seth



Re: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

2011-09-03 Thread Mohacsi Janos




On Sat, 3 Sep 2011, Skeeve Stevens wrote:


Hey all,

I've been thinking about the impact that iCloud (by Apple) will have on 
the Internet.


My guess is that 99% of consumer internet access is Asymmetrical (DSL, 
Cable, wireless, etc) and iCloud when launched will 'upload' obscene 
amounts of gigs of music, tv, backups, email, photos, documents/data and 
so on to their data centres.


Now, don't misunderstand me, I love the concept of iCloud, as I do 
DropBox, but from an Access Providers perspective, I'm thinking this 
might be a 'bad thing'.


From what I can see there are some key issues:

 *   Users with plans that count upload and download together.
 *   The speed of Asymmetric tail technology such as DSL
 *   The design of access provider backhaul (from DSLAM to core) metrics
 *   The design of some transit metrics

So basically the potential issue is that a large residential provider 
could have thousands of users connect to iCloud, their connections 
slowed because of uploading data, burning their included bandwidth caps, 
slowing down the backhaul segment of the network, and as residential 
providers are mostly download, some purchase transit from their 
upstreams in an symmetric fashion.



In my opinion. Home networking (including personal clouds) have to change 
the brain damaged model of asymmetric tail technologies. Giving back the 
original peer-to-peer nature of networking the asymmetricity of the 
access technologies will not be tolerable in such a level (1:10) we have 
today. Maybe 1:2 should be more acceptable.


You don't have to worry bout this changes, but access provider cannot 
claim any longer 100MBps (while upload speed ~10 Mbps), but probably 60-70

Mbps (with upload ~ 30 Mbps) They have to retune access services.


Best Regards,

Janos




Re: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

2011-09-03 Thread Jared Mauch

On Sep 3, 2011, at 5:02 PM, Jay Ashworth wrote:

> - Original Message -
>> From: "Wayne E Bouchard" 
> 
>> and will largely accept the problems for the durration or b) (and far
>> more likely) the links apple is using will become flooded or the
>> systems overloaded in some way or another in which case the customers
>> will say, "MAN, this *SUCKS*" and likely whine at apple.
> 
> If you think that call traffic's going to *Apple*, either you're an optimist,
> or I'm nutsabago.


The current apple "media" is reporting it's likely going to amazon and 
microsoft azure.

I've not bothered to look too deeply at dns and packet traces myself.

I'm guessing that all these things are going to hurt the DSL providers more 
than the docsis/fttx/pon based providers.  Those folks have broader 
capabilities by pushing updated configs to the devices.  The DSL based 
providers are more limited in my experience and likely to see a poorer ratio of 
up:down.  SDSL was just not common enough, so most A/VDSL based providers have 
something like 15:1.5 whereas comcast (for example) has 22:5.  I've seen the 
22:5 service burst (or should that be buffer/manage the queue) to around 80Mb/s 
down in some cases.

This is something you are unlikely to see from a DSL provider unless the 
equipment is in-building.

- Jared


Re: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

2011-09-03 Thread Jay Ashworth
- Original Message -
> From: "Wayne E Bouchard" 

> and will largely accept the problems for the durration or b) (and far
> more likely) the links apple is using will become flooded or the
> systems overloaded in some way or another in which case the customers
> will say, "MAN, this *SUCKS*" and likely whine at apple.

If you think that call traffic's going to *Apple*, either you're an optimist,
or I'm nutsabago.

Cheers,
-- jr 'shut *up*' a
-- 
Jay R. Ashworth  Baylink   j...@baylink.com
Designer The Things I Think   RFC 2100
Ashworth & Associates http://baylink.pitas.com 2000 Land Rover DII
St Petersburg FL USA  http://photo.imageinc.us +1 727 647 1274



Re: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

2011-09-03 Thread Wayne E Bouchard
If you're worried about the problem of tens of thousands of users
simultaneously trying to upload files to a "central point" then I'm
not the slightest bit concerned about the network as a whole. In this
circumstance, one of two things will happen and possibly both,
depending: either a) the users will screw themselves by flooding their
uplinks in which case they will know what they've done to themselves
and will largely accept the problems for the durration or b) (and far
more likely) the links apple is using will become flooded or the
systems overloaded in some way or another in which case the customers
will say, "MAN, this *SUCKS*" and likely whine at apple. Because the
nature of the traffic isn't much different than, say, a windows patch
release, the traffic won't be *all of a sudden* but will be spread out
over hours and days. The probability of it causing disruptions
anywhere but at the immediate source or within the near vicinity of
the desination is low, as I see it. IMO, the only ones who really need
be concerned are Apple's bandwidth prodivers because traffic will be
concentrating within their networks and especially in the nodes apple
connects to.

-Wayne

On Sat, Sep 03, 2011 at 11:20:13AM +, Skeeve Stevens wrote:
> Hey all,
> 
> I've been thinking about the impact that iCloud (by Apple) will have on the 
> Internet.
> 
> My guess is that 99% of consumer internet access is Asymmetrical (DSL, Cable, 
> wireless, etc) and iCloud when launched will 'upload' obscene amounts of gigs 
> of music, tv, backups, email, photos, documents/data and so on to their data 
> centres.
> 
> Now, don't misunderstand me, I love the concept of iCloud, as I do DropBox, 
> but from an Access Providers perspective, I'm thinking this might be a 'bad 
> thing'.
> 
> >From what I can see there are some key issues:
> 
>   *   Users with plans that count upload and download together.
>   *   The speed of Asymmetric tail technology such as DSL
>   *   The design of access provider backhaul (from DSLAM to core) metrics
>   *   The design of some transit metrics
> 
> So basically the potential issue is that a large residential provider could 
> have thousands of users connect to iCloud, their connections slowed because 
> of uploading data, burning their included bandwidth caps, slowing down the 
> backhaul segment of the network, and as residential providers are mostly 
> download, some purchase transit from their upstreams in an symmetric fashion.
> 
> This post is really just to prompt discussion if people think there is 
> anything to actually worry about, or there are other implications that I've 
> not really thought of yet.
> 
> ?Skeeve
> 
> --
> 
> Skeeve Stevens, CEO - eintellego Pty Ltd - The Networking Specialists
> 
> ske...@eintellego.net ; www.eintellego.net
> 
> Phone: 1300 753 383 ; Fax: (+612) 8572 9954
> 
> Cell +61 (0)414 753 383 ; skype://skeeve
> 
> facebook.com/eintellego or 
> eintell...@facebook.com
> 
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> 
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> 
> 
> --
> 
> eintellego - The Experts that the Experts call
> 
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---
Wayne Bouchard
w...@typo.org
Network Dude
http://www.typo.org/~web/



Re: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

2011-09-03 Thread Seth Mos

Op 3 sep 2011, om 19:49 heeft Jimmy Hess het volgende geschreven:

> On Sat, Sep 3, 2011 at 6:20 AM, Skeeve Stevens  wrote:
> 
>> My guess is that 99% of consumer internet access is Asymmetrical (DSL, 
>> Cable, wireless, etc) and iCloud when launched will 'upload' obscene amounts 
>> of gigs of music, tv, backups, email, photos, documents/data and so on to 
>> their data centres.
> 

> since a majority of music files backed up would be file-identical
> with  material  someone else had already backed up,
> and identical to material  already in  the iTunes store  (which they
> could pre-seed their database with).

How would storage vendors otherwise sell de duplication. I mean you could make 
the application smarter but that wouldn't sell more spinning rust or licenses.

Regards,

Seth


Re: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

2011-09-03 Thread Jimmy Hess
On Sat, Sep 3, 2011 at 6:20 AM, Skeeve Stevens  wrote:

> My guess is that 99% of consumer internet access is Asymmetrical (DSL, Cable, 
> wireless, etc) and iCloud when launched will 'upload' obscene amounts of gigs 
> of music, tv, backups, email, photos, documents/data and so on to their data 
> centres.

What would be obscene about that is from a design POV it would be a
waste of resources.
"Music"  and "TV"content are from a small number of sources, and
there are a massive potential number of users.

What should happen is instead of transmitting  large video files...
block checksums should be transmitted,
and only files that are completely foreign should be transferred.

Whereas everything else being "backed up"  is just an assignment of
account access to existing blocks  that would
already have been stored on the  content servers.

And then also,   a user storing  10GB of music  would probably take
only a  few megabytes of  their account space,
once the "space used"  is evenly  divided by the number of users that
have that block saved,

since a majority of music files backed up would be file-identical
with  material  someone else had already backed up,
and identical to material  already in  the iTunes store  (which they
could pre-seed their database with).


--
-JH



Re: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

2011-09-03 Thread Neil J. McRae
I think the effect will be limited unless Apple give alot more space away for 
free. there arny many iphones/pads/pods with just 5GB

Neil

On 3 Sep 2011, at 12:22, "Skeeve Stevens"  wrote:

> Hey all,
> 
> I've been thinking about the impact that iCloud (by Apple) will have on the 
> Internet.
> 
> My guess is that 99% of consumer internet access is Asymmetrical (DSL, Cable, 
> wireless, etc) and iCloud when launched will 'upload' obscene amounts of gigs 
> of music, tv, backups, email, photos, documents/data and so on to their data 
> centres.
> 
> Now, don't misunderstand me, I love the concept of iCloud, as I do DropBox, 
> but from an Access Providers perspective, I'm thinking this might be a 'bad 
> thing'.
> 
> From what I can see there are some key issues:
> 
>  *   Users with plans that count upload and download together.
>  *   The speed of Asymmetric tail technology such as DSL
>  *   The design of access provider backhaul (from DSLAM to core) metrics
>  *   The design of some transit metrics
> 
> So basically the potential issue is that a large residential provider could 
> have thousands of users connect to iCloud, their connections slowed because 
> of uploading data, burning their included bandwidth caps, slowing down the 
> backhaul segment of the network, and as residential providers are mostly 
> download, some purchase transit from their upstreams in an symmetric fashion.
> 
> This post is really just to prompt discussion if people think there is 
> anything to actually worry about, or there are other implications that I've 
> not really thought of yet.
> 
> …Skeeve
> 
> --
> 
> Skeeve Stevens, CEO - eintellego Pty Ltd - The Networking Specialists
> 
> ske...@eintellego.net ; www.eintellego.net
> 
> Phone: 1300 753 383 ; Fax: (+612) 8572 9954
> 
> Cell +61 (0)414 753 383 ; skype://skeeve
> 
> facebook.com/eintellego or 
> eintell...@facebook.com
> 
> twitter.com/networkceoau ; www.linkedin.com/in/skeeve
> 
> PO Box 7726, Baulkham Hills, NSW 1755 Australia
> 
> 
> --
> 
> eintellego - The Experts that the Experts call
> 
> - Juniper - HP Networking - Cisco - Brocade
> 




Re: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

2011-09-03 Thread Måns Nilsson
Subject: Re: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers? Date: Sat, Sep 03, 
2011 at 10:17:40AM -0400 Quoting Jay Ashworth (j...@baylink.com):
> Gambling means that sometimes you lose.  Alas, the costs won't be on
> Apple.
> 
> This seems to be an ongoing situation: carriers discovering that they
> also bet wrong on how to engineer the network: they've been making the 
> beams thinner and thinner, and then along came something reasonably
> rational... that was heavy enough to break them.
> 
> Anyone betting carriers will stop gambling quite so hard, and build 
> networks the way John Roebling built bridges?

Well put. 

I find it hard to blame the users for using the network. That is what
they pay the provider for. Any implicit assumptions about _how_ users
should use the network are simply corners cut to make things cheaper. 

Gambling. 

-- 
Måns Nilsson primary/secondary/besserwisser/machina
MN-1334-RIPE +46 705 989668
JAPAN is a WONDERFUL planet -- I wonder if we'll ever reach their level
of COMPARATIVE SHOPPING ...


signature.asc
Description: Digital signature


Re: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

2011-09-03 Thread Valdis . Kletnieks
On Sat, 03 Sep 2011 11:20:13 -, Skeeve Stevens said:

> My guess is that 99% of consumer internet access is Asymmetrical (DSL, Cable,
> wireless, etc) and iCloud when launched will 'upload' obscene amounts of
> gigs of music, tv, backups, email, photos, documents/data and so on to their
> idata centres.

This is probably not goind to be any harder on your network that BitTorrent
and friends.

> From what I can see there are some key issues:

You missed the *really* key issue.

The more people store data in the cloud, the more irate people are going to be
calling your help desk if you have an outage.  We've already seen a few news
stories where a cloud service has whoopsied and lost data.

(And yes, I know that technically, the fact that Joe Sixpack made a poor choice
of backup/storage strategies doesn't impose added duties on you.  But your help
desk is going to have a hard time explaining that to a pissed-off Joe)

Am I the only one who thinks iCloud style services plus a Cogent peering
dispute is a likely "perfect storm" scenario? ;)


pgpbtsuKynBOs.pgp
Description: PGP signature


Re: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

2011-09-03 Thread Jay Ashworth
> I'm not saying that people haven't being doing itŠ Dropbox is an exampleŠ
> but you add millions of iPads, iPhones, iPod Touches and OSX Lion's out
> there and that means a hell of a lot of new traffic.

Especially when you're at the end of a small hose.  Comparatively.

What's Oz's aggregate bandwidth to the US?

Will Apple be hosting on-continent?

Cheers,
-- jra
-- 
Jay R. Ashworth  Baylink   j...@baylink.com
Designer The Things I Think   RFC 2100
Ashworth & Associates http://baylink.pitas.com 2000 Land Rover DII
St Petersburg FL USA  http://photo.imageinc.us +1 727 647 1274



Re: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

2011-09-03 Thread Skeeve Stevens
I'm not saying that people haven't being doing itŠ Dropbox is an exampleŠ
but you add millions of iPads, iPhones, iPod Touches and OSX Lion's out
there and that means a hell of a lot of new traffic.

ŠSkeeve

--
Skeeve Stevens, CEO - eintellego Pty Ltd - The Networking Specialists
ske...@eintellego.net ; www.eintellego.net
Phone: 1300 753 383 ; Fax: (+612) 8572 9954
Cell +61 (0)414 753 383 ; skype://skeeve
facebook.com/eintellego or eintell...@facebook.com
twitter.com/networkceoau ; www.linkedin.com/in/skeeve
PO Box 7726, Baulkham Hills, NSW 1755 Australia

--
eintellego - The Experts that the Experts call
- Juniper - HP Networking - Cisco - Brocade







-Original Message-
From: Jared Mauch 
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2011 08:55:44 -0400
To: Alex Rubenstein 
Cc: Skeeve Stevens , "nanog@nanog.org"

Subject: Re: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

>I was thinking the same thing. People have been dealing with this for
>years. File sharing has had the same properties in the access networks
>for years now. 
>
>Jared Mauch
>
>On Sep 3, 2011, at 8:27 AM, Alex Rubenstein  wrote:
>
>> I think is would be short term. The home user is not going to
>>continuously upload data. They will do an initial sync, then
>>incrementals. 
>> 
>> People are doing this today with success. This is not a new thing.




Re: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

2011-09-03 Thread Skeeve Stevens
That is only for musicŠ Photos will be the big killer, documents and
iDevice backups as well.

ŠSkeeve

--
Skeeve Stevens, CEO - eintellego Pty Ltd - The Networking Specialists
ske...@eintellego.net ; www.eintellego.net
Phone: 1300 753 383 ; Fax: (+612) 8572 9954
Cell +61 (0)414 753 383 ; skype://skeeve
facebook.com/eintellego or eintell...@facebook.com
twitter.com/networkceoau ; www.linkedin.com/in/skeeve
PO Box 7726, Baulkham Hills, NSW 1755 Australia

--
eintellego - The Experts that the Experts call
- Juniper - HP Networking - Cisco - Brocade







-Original Message-
From: Andrey Khomyakov 
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2011 08:52:37 -0400
To: "nanog@nanog.org" 
Subject: Re: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

>My understanding was that the whole point of iCloud is to not upload but
>rather use Apple's stored music files as long as you have them in your
>library. You have a valid point however with other similar services, like
>amazon's. But that's been out for a while.
>
>--Andrey
>
>
>On Sat, Sep 3, 2011 at 7:20 AM, Skeeve Stevens
>wrote:
>
>> Hey all,
>>
>> I've been thinking about the impact that iCloud (by Apple) will have on
>>the
>> Internet.
>>
>> My guess is that 99% of consumer internet access is Asymmetrical (DSL,
>> Cable, wireless, etc) and iCloud when launched will 'upload' obscene
>>amounts
>> of gigs of music, tv, backups, email, photos, documents/data and so on
>>to
>> their data centres.
>>
>> Now, don't misunderstand me, I love the concept of iCloud, as I do
>>DropBox,
>> but from an Access Providers perspective, I'm thinking this might be a
>>'bad
>> thing'.
>>
>> From what I can see there are some key issues:
>>
>>  *   Users with plans that count upload and download together.
>>  *   The speed of Asymmetric tail technology such as DSL
>>  *   The design of access provider backhaul (from DSLAM to core) metrics
>>  *   The design of some transit metrics
>>
>> So basically the potential issue is that a large residential provider
>>could
>> have thousands of users connect to iCloud, their connections slowed
>>because
>> of uploading data, burning their included bandwidth caps, slowing down
>>the
>> backhaul segment of the network, and as residential providers are mostly
>> download, some purchase transit from their upstreams in an symmetric
>> fashion.
>>
>> This post is really just to prompt discussion if people think there is
>> anything to actually worry about, or there are other implications that
>>I've
>> not really thought of yet.
>>
>> ŠSkeeve
>>
>> --
>>
>> Skeeve Stevens, CEO - eintellego Pty Ltd - The Networking Specialists
>>
>> ske...@eintellego.net<mailto:ske...@eintellego.net> ; www.eintellego.net
>>
>> Phone: 1300 753 383 ; Fax: (+612) 8572 9954
>>
>> Cell +61 (0)414 753 383 ; skype://skeeve
>>
>> facebook.com/eintellego or eintell...@facebook.com> eintell...@facebook.com>
>>
>> twitter.com/networkceoau ; www.linkedin.com/in/skeeve
>>
>> PO Box 7726, Baulkham Hills, NSW 1755 Australia
>>
>>
>> --
>>
>> eintellego - The Experts that the Experts call
>>
>> - Juniper - HP Networking - Cisco - Brocade
>>




Re: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

2011-09-03 Thread Jay Ashworth
- Original Message -
> From: "Skeeve Stevens" 

> I've been thinking about the impact that iCloud (by Apple) will have
> on the Internet.

Aw, c'mon; what a boring Whacky Weekend thread... :-)

> So basically the potential issue is that a large residential provider
> could have thousands of users connect to iCloud, their connections
> slowed because of uploading data, burning their included bandwidth
> caps, slowing down the backhaul segment of the network, and as
> residential providers are mostly download, some purchase transit from
> their upstreams in an symmetric fashion.

IOW: The Tragedy Of The Commons.  Yup; this is definitely going to be fun.

This is, I think, slightly different from the Netflix Instant arguments we
always have: the ones wherein it's pointed out that carriers aren't really 
entitled to charge Netflix because they've made improper bets on their
capacity engineering for What Might Come Next:

Apple really had better have already *known* what the engineering of
consumer grade Internet looked like (or several high level product and
engineering people are dangerously underqualified for their jobs), so
as this problem gets worse, and I concur that it will, the result will be
that they bet wrong.

Gambling means that sometimes you lose.  Alas, the costs won't be on
Apple.

This seems to be an ongoing situation: carriers discovering that they
also bet wrong on how to engineer the network: they've been making the 
beams thinner and thinner, and then along came something reasonably
rational... that was heavy enough to break them.

Anyone betting carriers will stop gambling quite so hard, and build 
networks the way John Roebling built bridges?

Cheers,
-- jr 'first woodpecker that came along...' a
-- 
Jay R. Ashworth  Baylink   j...@baylink.com
Designer The Things I Think   RFC 2100
Ashworth & Associates http://baylink.pitas.com 2000 Land Rover DII
St Petersburg FL USA  http://photo.imageinc.us +1 727 647 1274



Re: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

2011-09-03 Thread Jared Mauch
I was thinking the same thing. People have been dealing with this for years. 
File sharing has had the same properties in the access networks for years now. 

Jared Mauch

On Sep 3, 2011, at 8:27 AM, Alex Rubenstein  wrote:

> I think is would be short term. The home user is not going to continuously 
> upload data. They will do an initial sync, then incrementals. 
> 
> People are doing this today with success. This is not a new thing.



Re: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

2011-09-03 Thread Andrey Khomyakov
My understanding was that the whole point of iCloud is to not upload but
rather use Apple's stored music files as long as you have them in your
library. You have a valid point however with other similar services, like
amazon's. But that's been out for a while.

--Andrey


On Sat, Sep 3, 2011 at 7:20 AM, Skeeve Stevens wrote:

> Hey all,
>
> I've been thinking about the impact that iCloud (by Apple) will have on the
> Internet.
>
> My guess is that 99% of consumer internet access is Asymmetrical (DSL,
> Cable, wireless, etc) and iCloud when launched will 'upload' obscene amounts
> of gigs of music, tv, backups, email, photos, documents/data and so on to
> their data centres.
>
> Now, don't misunderstand me, I love the concept of iCloud, as I do DropBox,
> but from an Access Providers perspective, I'm thinking this might be a 'bad
> thing'.
>
> From what I can see there are some key issues:
>
>  *   Users with plans that count upload and download together.
>  *   The speed of Asymmetric tail technology such as DSL
>  *   The design of access provider backhaul (from DSLAM to core) metrics
>  *   The design of some transit metrics
>
> So basically the potential issue is that a large residential provider could
> have thousands of users connect to iCloud, their connections slowed because
> of uploading data, burning their included bandwidth caps, slowing down the
> backhaul segment of the network, and as residential providers are mostly
> download, some purchase transit from their upstreams in an symmetric
> fashion.
>
> This post is really just to prompt discussion if people think there is
> anything to actually worry about, or there are other implications that I've
> not really thought of yet.
>
> …Skeeve
>
> --
>
> Skeeve Stevens, CEO - eintellego Pty Ltd - The Networking Specialists
>
> ske...@eintellego.net ; www.eintellego.net
>
> Phone: 1300 753 383 ; Fax: (+612) 8572 9954
>
> Cell +61 (0)414 753 383 ; skype://skeeve
>
> facebook.com/eintellego or eintell...@facebook.com eintell...@facebook.com>
>
> twitter.com/networkceoau ; www.linkedin.com/in/skeeve
>
> PO Box 7726, Baulkham Hills, NSW 1755 Australia
>
>
> --
>
> eintellego - The Experts that the Experts call
>
> - Juniper - HP Networking - Cisco - Brocade
>


Re: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

2011-09-03 Thread Alex Rubenstein
I think is would be short term. The home user is not going to continuously 
upload data. They will do an initial sync, then incrementals. 

People are doing this today with success. This is not a new thing. 



Sent via Blackberry while presumably driving with one hand

- Original Message -
From: Skeeve Stevens 
To: nanog@nanog.org 
Sent: Sat Sep 03 07:20:13 2011
Subject: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

Hey all,

I've been thinking about the impact that iCloud (by Apple) will have on the 
Internet.

My guess is that 99% of consumer internet access is Asymmetrical (DSL, Cable, 
wireless, etc) and iCloud when launched will 'upload' obscene amounts of gigs 
of music, tv, backups, email, photos, documents/data and so on to their data 
centres.

Now, don't misunderstand me, I love the concept of iCloud, as I do DropBox, but 
from an Access Providers perspective, I'm thinking this might be a 'bad thing'.

From what I can see there are some key issues:

  *   Users with plans that count upload and download together.
  *   The speed of Asymmetric tail technology such as DSL
  *   The design of access provider backhaul (from DSLAM to core) metrics
  *   The design of some transit metrics

So basically the potential issue is that a large residential provider could 
have thousands of users connect to iCloud, their connections slowed because of 
uploading data, burning their included bandwidth caps, slowing down the 
backhaul segment of the network, and as residential providers are mostly 
download, some purchase transit from their upstreams in an symmetric fashion.

This post is really just to prompt discussion if people think there is anything 
to actually worry about, or there are other implications that I've not really 
thought of yet.

…Skeeve

--

Skeeve Stevens, CEO - eintellego Pty Ltd - The Networking Specialists

ske...@eintellego.net<mailto:ske...@eintellego.net> ; www.eintellego.net

Phone: 1300 753 383 ; Fax: (+612) 8572 9954

Cell +61 (0)414 753 383 ; skype://skeeve

facebook.com/eintellego or 
eintell...@facebook.com<mailto:eintell...@facebook.com>

twitter.com/networkceoau ; www.linkedin.com/in/skeeve

PO Box 7726, Baulkham Hills, NSW 1755 Australia


--

eintellego - The Experts that the Experts call

- Juniper - HP Networking - Cisco - Brocade


iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

2011-09-03 Thread Skeeve Stevens
Hey all,

I've been thinking about the impact that iCloud (by Apple) will have on the 
Internet.

My guess is that 99% of consumer internet access is Asymmetrical (DSL, Cable, 
wireless, etc) and iCloud when launched will 'upload' obscene amounts of gigs 
of music, tv, backups, email, photos, documents/data and so on to their data 
centres.

Now, don't misunderstand me, I love the concept of iCloud, as I do DropBox, but 
from an Access Providers perspective, I'm thinking this might be a 'bad thing'.

>From what I can see there are some key issues:

  *   Users with plans that count upload and download together.
  *   The speed of Asymmetric tail technology such as DSL
  *   The design of access provider backhaul (from DSLAM to core) metrics
  *   The design of some transit metrics

So basically the potential issue is that a large residential provider could 
have thousands of users connect to iCloud, their connections slowed because of 
uploading data, burning their included bandwidth caps, slowing down the 
backhaul segment of the network, and as residential providers are mostly 
download, some purchase transit from their upstreams in an symmetric fashion.

This post is really just to prompt discussion if people think there is anything 
to actually worry about, or there are other implications that I've not really 
thought of yet.

…Skeeve

--

Skeeve Stevens, CEO - eintellego Pty Ltd - The Networking Specialists

ske...@eintellego.net ; www.eintellego.net

Phone: 1300 753 383 ; Fax: (+612) 8572 9954

Cell +61 (0)414 753 383 ; skype://skeeve

facebook.com/eintellego or 
eintell...@facebook.com

twitter.com/networkceoau ; www.linkedin.com/in/skeeve

PO Box 7726, Baulkham Hills, NSW 1755 Australia


--

eintellego - The Experts that the Experts call

- Juniper - HP Networking - Cisco - Brocade