Re: [ob] Re: Confirm dong Pak Oentoeng...

[brainfuchs]

http://pemilu.detiknews.com/read/2009/07/07/060416/1160196/700/lsi-adakan-quick-count-pilpres-pakai-dana-pribadi

Jakarta - Lembaga Survei Indonesia (LSI) akan tetap melakukan quick count
dan exit poll pada Pilpres 8 Juli. LSI pastikan dana yang mereka gunakan
bukan dari pasangan capres-cawapres mana pun.

"LSI akan memakai dana Yayasan Pengembangan Demokrasi Indonesia (YPDI) yang
mendirikan dan menghidupi lembaga survei ini," kata Manager Public Affairs
LSI, Burhanuddin Muhtadi dalam rilis yang diterima detikcom, Selasa
(7/7/2009).

LSI juga akan mengembalikan dana dari Fox Indonesia yang nantinya akan
dialokasikan untuk membiayai quick count. LSI merasa perlu melakukan ini
untuk memberi jaminan tentang integritas hasil survei.

Menurut Muhtadi, masih banyak sebagian masyarakat yang tidak dapat menerima
konsep profesionalisme. Rakyat belum dapat menghilangkan kaitan antara
sumber pendanaan dengan hasil survei.

"Masih banyak pihak yang meragukan prinsip inklusivitas dan non-partisan
LSI," jelas Muhtadi.

Pada pilpres mendatang, LSI akan mengerahkan 2.500 orang ke seluruh
Indonesia untuk mengumpulkan data. LSI juga akan mengerahkan tenaga
spot-checker, validator, call center, ahli statistik, IT dan puluhan tenaga
lainnya untuk mensukseskan penghitungan cepat.
( mok / fiq )


On Tue, Jul 7, 2009 at 8:13 AM, Orang Sabar wrote:
>
>
> http://bright-info.blogspot.com/
>
> Senin, 2009 Juli 06
>
> CIMB - One or two rounds?
>
> Let’s start with the survey data i.e. the scientific way. Unfortunately,
> surveyors’ credibility has been dented after many admitted to financing by
> the candidates. The following data is mostly derived from the LSI survey
> conducted on 15-20 Jun 09 and published on 24 Jun. For this survey, LSI
was
> partly financed by FoxIndonesia, which is a consultant to the SBY campaign
> team. And it has been under a lot of pressure of late, which probably
> explains why it took the pain to elaborate its method, samples, present
and
> former clients (including Golkar & PDI-P) as well as showcase its past
> record. It is still generally viewed as the most consistent of the
> surveyors.
>
> With that in mind, its survey still shows that SBY is leading by a wide
> margin, albeit declining. JK’s popularity is rising rapidly. Assuming a
> linear projection to 8 Jul and using the decline/increase from previous
> surveys, adding margins for error (by bumping up JK & Mega but scaling
down
> SBY), SBY should still win by about 60%, by our estimates, which concurs
> with LSI’s calculation, though LSI was more generous to JK & Mega than
what
> our calculation shows. Assuming that the 8% of ‘undecided’ voters - based
on
> the 15-20 Jun 09 survey – were to give their votes to candidates other
than
> SBY, SBY would still secure a majority. LSI added that its track record
> (fortunately there were many regional elections over the past five years)
> shows that if a candidate leads by a wide margin prior to voting day, the
> candidate never loses. Nation wide, the survey data suggests SBY would win
a
> majority.
>
> There is, however, another criterion to be met for winning in one round:
the
> candidate must garner at least 20% of the votes in 17 provinces (out of
33),
> which is designed to ensure the winner is not Java-centric, since 60% of
the
> voters reside in Java. Based on the 18 largest provinces – eligible voters
> wise – LSI’s survey suggests that SBY would easily meet the threshold,
even
> after accounting for some error (“conservative” in Figure 4).
>
> The bottom line is, SBY would win in one round, based on the survey.
> Now come the less scientific view. Campaign strategy/targeting wise,
> Megawati is probably the most aggressive, offering the most radical
> programmes which appeal to the less fortunate in the population. She and
her
> running mate, Prabowo, are the only ones offering ‘political contracts’,
> listed on their campaign website, among which is a vow to eliminate
> outsourcing for workers and legal action in the Lapindo mudflow disaster
> (that should make the Bakrie Group anxious). Research done by the leading
> newspaper, Kompas, shows that Megawati has won over strong support from
> fishermen and blue-collar workers in general, while JK’s core supporters
> reside outside Java and are higher net worth individuals (an interesting
> point).
>
> Meanwhile, SBY’s supporters are generally young, better educated and
> widespread demographically.
> JK’s popularity is gaining momentum. If such acceleration is superimposed
on
> LSI’s survey, he might just be able to capture more than 20% of the vote,
> probably at the expense of SBY. This would make one round of election less
> likely, if Megawati manages to arrest her slide.
>
> If SBY is pitted against JK in the second round, the latter could be the
> dark horse, given that the Megawati camp would likely support him.
> Anecdotally, many appear less certain that elections could be completed in
> one round.
> Diposkan oleh BRIGHT INFO di 06:31 0

Re: [ob] Re: Confirm dong Pak Oentoeng...

[Orang Sabar]

http://bright-info.blogspot.com/
Senin, 2009 Juli 06  CIMB - One or two
rounds?
Let’s start with the survey data i.e. the scientific way.
Unfortunately,
surveyors’ credibility has been dented after many admitted to financing by
the candidates. The following data is mostly derived from the LSI survey
conducted on 15-20 Jun 09 and published on 24 Jun. For this survey, LSI was
partly financed by FoxIndonesia, which is a consultant to the SBY campaign
team. And it has been under a lot of pressure of late, which probably
explains why it took the pain to elaborate its method, samples, present and
former clients (including Golkar & PDI-P) as well as showcase its past
record. It is still generally viewed as the most consistent of the
surveyors.

With
that in mind, its survey still shows that SBY is leading by a wide
margin, albeit declining. JK’s popularity is rising rapidly. Assuming a
linear projection to 8 Jul and using the decline/increase from previous
surveys, adding margins for error (by bumping up JK & Mega but scaling down
SBY), SBY should still win by about 60%, by our estimates, which concurs
with LSI’s calculation, though LSI was more generous to JK & Mega than what
our calculation shows. Assuming that the 8% of ‘undecided’ voters - based on
the 15-20 Jun 09 survey – were to give their votes to candidates other than
SBY, SBY would still secure a majority. LSI added that its track record
(fortunately there were many regional elections over the past five years)
shows that if a candidate leads by a wide margin prior to voting day, the
candidate never loses. Nation wide, the survey data suggests SBY would win a
majority.

There is, however, another criterion to be met for winning in one round: the
candidate must garner at least 20% of the votes in 17 provinces (out of 33),
which is designed to ensure the winner is not Java-centric, since 60% of the
voters reside in Java. Based on the 18 largest provinces – eligible voters
wise – LSI’s survey suggests that SBY would easily meet the threshold, even
after accounting for some error (“conservative” in Figure 4).

The bottom line is, SBY would win in one round, based on the survey.
Now come the less scientific view. Campaign strategy/targeting wise,
Megawati is probably the most aggressive, offering the most radical
programmes which appeal to the less fortunate in the population. She and her
running mate, Prabowo, are the only ones offering ‘political contracts’,
listed on their campaign website, among which is a vow to eliminate
outsourcing for workers and legal action in the Lapindo mudflow disaster
(that should make the Bakrie Group anxious). Research done by the leading
newspaper, Kompas, shows that Megawati has won over strong support from
fishermen and blue-collar workers in general, while JK’s core supporters
reside outside Java and are higher net worth individuals (an interesting
point).

Meanwhile,
SBY’s supporters are generally young, better educated and
widespread demographically.
JK’s popularity is gaining momentum. If such acceleration is superimposed on
LSI’s survey, he might just be able to capture more than 20% of the vote,
probably at the expense of SBY. This would make one round of election less
likely, if Megawati manages to arrest her slide.

If SBY is pitted against JK in the second round, the latter could be the
dark horse, given that the Megawati camp would likely support him.
Anecdotally, many appear less certain that elections could be completed in
one round.
 Diposkan oleh BRIGHT INFO  di
06:31
   0
komentar




Pada 6 Juli 2009 17:59, Provokator Saham  menulis:

> --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Ruz7"  wrote:
> >
> > Ada Pak Oen.
> > Survey LSI pimpinan Pak Denny JA bilang 1 Putaran. FYI, LSI jg dipakai
> Mega saat kampanye legislatif. Jadi dia sdh tahu kantong-kantong nya. Ini
> setahu saya. CMIIW
> > Powered By FREN BondBerry.  (Bayar Pake Daun).
>Indeksbei3000®
> >
>
> Anda memang benar pak, tapi yg saya maksud survey setelah berakhirnya
> kampanye...trus dibandingkan sebelumnya...
> Apakah ada perubahan?
>
> Karena secara "hitungan politik", begitu terjadi 2 putaran, SBY-Boediono
> akan "dihajar" ama lawan2nya...
> Makanya saya tdk akan terlalu ber-spekulasi, sebelum semuanya menjadi
> JELAS.
>
>
>
>
> 
>
> + +
> + + + + +
> Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting la

Re: [ob] Re: Confirm dong Pak Oentoeng...

[Ruz7]

Optimis sajalah Pak Oen

TBumi mode on :)
Powered By FREN BondBerry.  (Bayar Pake Daun).  
Indeksbei3000®


-Original Message-
From: "Provokator Saham" 

Date: Mon, 06 Jul 2009 10:59:25 
To: 
Subject: [ob] Re: Confirm dong Pak Oentoeng...


--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Ruz7"  wrote:
>
> Ada Pak Oen.
> Survey LSI pimpinan Pak Denny JA bilang 1 Putaran. FYI, LSI jg dipakai Mega 
> saat kampanye legislatif. Jadi dia sdh tahu kantong-kantong nya. Ini setahu 
> saya. CMIIW
> Powered By FREN BondBerry.  (Bayar Pake Daun).
>   Indeksbei3000®
> 

Anda memang benar pak, tapi yg saya maksud survey setelah berakhirnya 
kampanye...trus dibandingkan sebelumnya...
Apakah ada perubahan?

Karena secara "hitungan politik", begitu terjadi 2 putaran, SBY-Boediono akan 
"dihajar" ama lawan2nya...
Makanya saya tdk akan terlalu ber-spekulasi, sebelum semuanya menjadi JELAS.






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+ + + + +
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[ob] Re: Confirm dong Pak Oentoeng...

[Provokator Saham]

--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Ruz7"  wrote:
>
> Ada Pak Oen.
> Survey LSI pimpinan Pak Denny JA bilang 1 Putaran. FYI, LSI jg dipakai Mega 
> saat kampanye legislatif. Jadi dia sdh tahu kantong-kantong nya. Ini setahu 
> saya. CMIIW
> Powered By FREN BondBerry.  (Bayar Pake Daun).
>   Indeksbei3000®
> 

Anda memang benar pak, tapi yg saya maksud survey setelah berakhirnya 
kampanye...trus dibandingkan sebelumnya...
Apakah ada perubahan?

Karena secara "hitungan politik", begitu terjadi 2 putaran, SBY-Boediono akan 
"dihajar" ama lawan2nya...
Makanya saya tdk akan terlalu ber-spekulasi, sebelum semuanya menjadi JELAS.

RE: [ob] Re: Confirm dong Pak Oentoeng...

[Peter Alimin]

Terlepas pilpres 1 atau 2 putaran, BUY dulu sebagian...

OOT dikit, makin dekat Pilpres kok makin banyak kecelakaan dan kejadian aneh2 
ya...
Kecelakaan hari ini aja: kereta api vs minibus, sore ini pesawat merpati...
kejadian aneh2: fastnet ama indosat d sby error...

To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
From: oentoeng...@yahoo.com
Date: Mon, 6 Jul 2009 10:10:56 +
Subject: [ob] Re: Confirm dong Pak Oentoeng...

























  
  --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "alan Feihung"  wrote:

>

> Gimana nih pak, nyopet apa bagimana ni?

>



Ini bukan saat nyopet pak, tapi "nge-RAMPOK", kekekek

Saya sekarang ini terus BELANJA, besok akan lebih AGRESIF.



Secara strategi saya masih dg asumsi pilpres 2 putaran.

Karena sampai detik ini blm ada POOLING ttg popularitas para capres.

Sbg indikasi bhw pilpres lusa akan selesai dlm 1 putaran.



Kalau ntar terjadi 2 putaran BENERAN, barang yg sudah di-belanja saya buat 
NYILEM bareng BOZZ, hahahadasar nasibbb





 

  














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Re: [ob] Re: Confirm dong Pak Oentoeng...

[Ruz7]

Ada Pak Oen.
Survey LSI pimpinan Pak Denny JA bilang 1 Putaran. FYI, LSI jg dipakai Mega 
saat kampanye legislatif. Jadi dia sdh tahu kantong-kantong nya. Ini setahu 
saya. CMIIW
Powered By FREN BondBerry.  (Bayar Pake Daun).  
Indeksbei3000®


-Original Message-
From: "Provokator Saham" 

Date: Mon, 06 Jul 2009 10:10:56 
To: 
Subject: [ob] Re: Confirm dong Pak Oentoeng...


--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "alan Feihung"  wrote:
>
> Gimana nih pak, nyopet apa bagimana ni?
>

Ini bukan saat nyopet pak, tapi "nge-RAMPOK", kekekek
Saya sekarang ini terus BELANJA, besok akan lebih AGRESIF.

Secara strategi saya masih dg asumsi pilpres 2 putaran.
Karena sampai detik ini blm ada POOLING ttg popularitas para capres.
Sbg indikasi bhw pilpres lusa akan selesai dlm 1 putaran.

Kalau ntar terjadi 2 putaran BENERAN, barang yg sudah di-belanja saya buat 
NYILEM bareng BOZZ, hahahadasar nasibbb







+ +
+ + + + +
Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus 
kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas.
+ + + + +
+ +Yahoo! Groups Links







+ +
+ + + + +
Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus 
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[ob] Re: Confirm dong Pak Oentoeng...

[Provokator Saham]

--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "alan Feihung"  wrote:
>
> Gimana nih pak, nyopet apa bagimana ni?
>

Ini bukan saat nyopet pak, tapi "nge-RAMPOK", kekekek
Saya sekarang ini terus BELANJA, besok akan lebih AGRESIF.

Secara strategi saya masih dg asumsi pilpres 2 putaran.
Karena sampai detik ini blm ada POOLING ttg popularitas para capres.
Sbg indikasi bhw pilpres lusa akan selesai dlm 1 putaran.

Kalau ntar terjadi 2 putaran BENERAN, barang yg sudah di-belanja saya buat 
NYILEM bareng BOZZ, hahahadasar nasibbb