[obrolan-bandar] Re: PTBA TP Rp 11.200 by DANAREKSA
Hehehe...ada yg bilang 6100, ada yg bilang 8200, ada yg bilang 11000...bingung deh, masing2 punya argumen sendiri. Kita mau ikut yg mana nih? :) --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Wandy Wiratman [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: From: Danareksa Equity Research Sent: Tuesday, June 19, 2007 9:51 AM Subject: Insight : Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA IJ, Rp6,700, BUY) : Re-rating of a distressed asset Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Re-rating of a distressed asset Light at the end of the tunnel? The government's strong pressure on both PTBA and PTKA (the railway company) will likely end PTBA's railway problems. We expect total sales volume to increase from 10.5mn in 2007 tons to 26.6mn tons in 2011 (26% CAGR). We believe that we are not aggressive in our new volume assumptions. FY08-09 earnings upgrades We upgrade our FY08-09 earnings forecasts by 17-44% on the back of higher volume and export price assumptions. We also increase our long-term export price on the back of strong coal market dynamics. The reserves have to be revalued PTBA is now trading a very deep discount (80%) in terms of EV/reserves to BUMI. With the railway problems now likely to be resolved faster than expected, we believe the huge discount is no longer justified, providing room for the market to revalue the reserves at a higher valuation. A distressed asset, BUY with a new TP of Rp11,200 PTBA can, in our view, be considered a distressed asset - and a potential MA target if the government is willing to divest. Our new target price of Rp11,200 is derived from an SOTP of the non-lignite reserves (based on EV/adjusted reserves US$4.5/ton) and the power projects (based on DCF), and offering 67% upside. BUY. --- PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL (Disclaimer) --- This e-mail message is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed and may contain information that is privileged, confidential and exempt from disclosure. If you are not the intended recipient, please do not disseminate, distribute, or copy this communication, by e-mail or otherwise, or take any action in reliance on it. Instead, please notify us immediately by return e- mail (including the original message in your reply) to [EMAIL PROTECTED], and then delete and discard all copies of the e-mail.
Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: PTBA TP Rp 11.200 by DANAREKSA
soon enough 2, long 3, buy 1 highwaystar91 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Hehehe...ada yg bilang 6100, ada yg bilang 8200, ada yg bilang 11000...bingung deh, masing2 punya argumen sendiri. Kita mau ikut yg mana nih? :) --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Wandy Wiratman [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: From: Danareksa Equity Research Sent: Tuesday, June 19, 2007 9:51 AM Subject: Insight : Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA IJ, Rp6,700, BUY) : Re-rating of a distressed asset Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Re-rating of a distressed asset Light at the end of the tunnel? The government's strong pressure on both PTBA and PTKA (the railway company) will likely end PTBA's railway problems. We expect total sales volume to increase from 10.5mn in 2007 tons to 26.6mn tons in 2011 (26% CAGR). We believe that we are not aggressive in our new volume assumptions. FY08-09 earnings upgrades We upgrade our FY08-09 earnings forecasts by 17-44% on the back of higher volume and export price assumptions. We also increase our long-term export price on the back of strong coal market dynamics. The reserves have to be revalued PTBA is now trading a very deep discount (80%) in terms of EV/reserves to BUMI. With the railway problems now likely to be resolved faster than expected, we believe the huge discount is no longer justified, providing room for the market to revalue the reserves at a higher valuation. A distressed asset, BUY with a new TP of Rp11,200 PTBA can, in our view, be considered a distressed asset - and a potential MA target if the government is willing to divest. Our new target price of Rp11,200 is derived from an SOTP of the non-lignite reserves (based on EV/adjusted reserves US$4.5/ton) and the power projects (based on DCF), and offering 67% upside. BUY. -- PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL (Disclaimer) -- This e-mail message is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed and may contain information that is privileged, confidential and exempt from disclosure. If you are not the intended recipient, please do not disseminate, distribute, or copy this communication, by e-mail or otherwise, or take any action in reliance on it. Instead, please notify us immediately by return e- mail (including the original message in your reply) to [EMAIL PROTECTED], and then delete and discard all copies of the e-mail. - Luggage? GPS? Comic books? Check out fitting gifts for grads at Yahoo! Search.
Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: PTBA TP Rp 11.200 by DANAREKSA
Ikuti feeling kita sendiri Kalo bingunginget pesen Embah... pegangan Confused, sad, mad, glad? Feelings convey information about situations, on both conscious and subconscious levels http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feeling Check out this section to learn about these emotions and many more - and how to deal with them. Salam On 6/21/07, highwaystar91 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Hehehe...ada yg bilang 6100, ada yg bilang 8200, ada yg bilang 11000...bingung deh, masing2 punya argumen sendiri. Kita mau ikut yg mana nih? :) --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Wandy Wiratman [EMAIL PROTECTED] -- YNWA
