Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Harga wajar saham

[Elaine Sui]

*Well, I guess he did. But I was actually telling about Dividend Discount
Model and Equity Risk Premium, which are slightly different from Gordon
Growth Model. (Personally I think GGM doesnt make sense, there is not such
thing as constant growth rate, and it doesn't really work on emerging
countries)

If he was here, I'd love to discuss this with him.

Anyway, Richard said he's a newbie, so I guess we have to explain a bit
about valuation in the simplest way possible. Maybe you (or anyone) can help
him from technical point of view (if there's any..) [?]



Elaine**
*
On Mon, Jan 5, 2009 at 12:07 AM, jsx_consultant <
jsx-consult...@centrin.net.id> wrote:

> Ini rumus Gordon Growth Model:
>
> Price = Deviden / (Expected Return-Expected Growth)
>
> Expected Growth dianggap nol, lagi RESESI.
>
> Dulu kan diajarin kang okoy... hehehe...
>
>
> --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Elaine Sui 
> wrote:
> >
> > *Listen to me. I'll explain this as simple as possible. Okay?
> First, you
> > must BUY now. That's all. lol..[?] okay seriously, you should
> consider
> > comparing stocks' DPR (dividend/price ratio) vs RFRR (Risk free
> rate of
> > return) or simply the average bank deposit rate + 1% spread.
> >
> > Dividend/Price Ratio should NEVER be allowed to go above RFR ratio.
> > (otherwise it's undervalued)
> >
> > Example:
> > Let's say a stock price is 1000. The dividend forecast is around
> 100. That
> > makes the DPR = 100/1000=10%. while the current risk free rate of
> return
> > (RFRR) is only at 8%
> >
> > You see the DPR is higher than the current RFRR. So, the stock
> price MAY
> > adjust itself to have 8% DPR, means the stock price' fair value
> would be
> > around 100/8% = 1250. So the stock may advance around 25% from 1000
> (to
> > 1250) usually until the dividend is paid.
> >
> > Let's say for other stock, the dividend forecast is only 10. That
> makes the
> > DPR = 10/1000=1%, this means the stock price is way too high
> compared to its
> > dividend. So the stock price MAY plunge to 10/8%= 125 at worst,
> usually soon
> > after the dividend is paid.
> >
> > Case 1:
> > BUMI. On June 2008, BUMI price was 8000. The announced
> >
>  umi-bagi-dividen-usd317-jt
> >dividend
> > was 111, and RFRR is, let's say, 8%. The simple calculation would
> be 111/8%
> > = 13xx. That'd be the fair value of BUMI.
> >
> > Case 2:
> > INCO. On Nov 1, 2007, INCO announced
> >  interim-2007-dividend-of-09787-per-share/
> >that
> > it'd pay a dividend of $1 or around IDR 9000. INCO was 100k/share.
> The RFRR
> > is 8%, so INCO had a chance to rise to 9000/8% = 112k before the
> dividend is
> > finally paid. But the nickel price was already plunged at that
> time, so the
> > next dividend forecast fell, and so did the price. The latest
> dividend cmiiw
> > was around $0.2, that makes current fair value of INCO is around
> 25xx.
> >
> > I made you confused, didn't I..? [?] this post makes me
> less 'mysterious' lol
> > wth.. I guess you'd love to have a night class with Elaine.. [?]
> j/k..
> >
> > Elaine
> > *
> > 2009/1/4 Richard S 
> >
> > >  Para Suhu2x yg saya hormati.. saya sebagai newbi punya pertanyan
> > > fundamental mohon bimbingannya ..
> > > Bagai mana cari tau harga wajar sebuah saham, apakah dia uda
> terlalu mahal
> > > untuk di beli ato sudah mura dan boleh di beli?
> > > Thanks in advance, Richard.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
>
>
>
> 
>
> + +
> + + + + +
> Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus
> kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas.
> + + + + +
> + +Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>
>
<<360.gif>>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Harga wajar saham

[karno . edy]

Ikutan sharing
Company valuation simpy = Present value of expected streams of earning  after 
discounted of cost of capital (setelah dikurangi biaya modal/bunga) 
Pengertian earning di sini adalah net (laba bersih)

Di sini sebagai contoh saya ambil penghasilan 10 tahun, pada kenyataannya 
tergantung mau hitung berapa tahun, ini hanya untuk memudahkan perhitungan.
Misal proyeksi laba bersih perusahaan A =
tahun 1 = 100milyar
tahun 2 = 125milyar
tahun 3 = 140milyar
Tahun 4 s/d 10 = 150milyar. 
Cost of capital  (pendekatan bunga di sini = bunga pinjaman) kita anggap = 15%
Jumlah saham beredar =500 juta lembar.

Maka nilai prsh =
Thn 1 = 100m/(1,15)^1 = 87m
Thn 2 = 125m/(1,15)^2= 95m
Thn 3 = 140m/(1,15)^3 = 92m
Thn 4 = 86m dst
maka total present value s/d tahun ke 10 = 684miliar.

Harga saham sendiri secara sederhana = nilai perusahaan/jumlah saham beredar.  
Jadi nilai saham prsh A/lembarnya= 684m/500jt = 1368

Pada kenyataannya biaya bunga tidak flat setiap tahunnya, begitu juga 
memprediksi laba (apalagi berbasis komoditi :) tidak mudah.

Pendekatan ini agak berbeda dgn yg ditulis Miss El terutama dalam 2 hal yakni 
earning vs deviden dan bunga deposito vs bunga pinjaman.
Dari sudut pandang investor hitungan nona Elaine tidak salah. 
Menggiurkan sekali, kalau investasi saham bisa menghasilkan deviden sebesar 
bunga deposito.

Cheers,

Sent from my BlackBerry®
powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT

-Original Message-
From: "jsx_consultant" 

Date: Sun, 04 Jan 2009 17:07:51 
To: 
Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Harga wajar saham


Ini rumus Gordon Growth Model:

Price = Deviden / (Expected Return-Expected Growth)

Expected Growth dianggap nol, lagi RESESI.

Dulu kan diajarin kang okoy... hehehe...


--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Elaine Sui  
wrote:
>
> *Listen to me. I'll explain this as simple as possible. Okay? 
First, you
> must BUY now. That's all. lol..[?] okay seriously, you should 
consider
> comparing stocks' DPR (dividend/price ratio) vs RFRR (Risk free 
rate of
> return) or simply the average bank deposit rate + 1% spread.
> 
> Dividend/Price Ratio should NEVER be allowed to go above RFR ratio.
> (otherwise it's undervalued)
> 
> Example:
> Let's say a stock price is 1000. The dividend forecast is around 
100. That
> makes the DPR = 100/1000=10%. while the current risk free rate of 
return
> (RFRR) is only at 8%
> 
> You see the DPR is higher than the current RFRR. So, the stock 
price MAY
> adjust itself to have 8% DPR, means the stock price' fair value 
would be
> around 100/8% = 1250. So the stock may advance around 25% from 1000 
(to
> 1250) usually until the dividend is paid.
> 
> Let's say for other stock, the dividend forecast is only 10. That 
makes the
> DPR = 10/1000=1%, this means the stock price is way too high 
compared to its
> dividend. So the stock price MAY plunge to 10/8%= 125 at worst, 
usually soon
> after the dividend is paid.
> 
> Case 1:
> BUMI. On June 2008, BUMI price was 8000. The announced
> 
dividend
> was 111, and RFRR is, let's say, 8%. The simple calculation would 
be 111/8%
> = 13xx. That'd be the fair value of BUMI.
> 
> Case 2:
> INCO. On Nov 1, 2007, INCO announced
> that
> it'd pay a dividend of $1 or around IDR 9000. INCO was 100k/share. 
The RFRR
> is 8%, so INCO had a chance to rise to 9000/8% = 112k before the 
dividend is
> finally paid. But the nickel price was already plunged at that 
time, so the
> next dividend forecast fell, and so did the price. The latest 
dividend cmiiw
> was around $0.2, that makes current fair value of INCO is around 
25xx.
> 
> I made you confused, didn't I..? [?] this post makes me 
less 'mysterious' lol
> wth.. I guess you'd love to have a night class with Elaine.. [?] 
j/k..
> 
> Elaine
> *
> 2009/1/4 Richard S 
> 
> >  Para Suhu2x yg saya hormati.. saya sebagai newbi punya pertanyan
> > fundamental mohon bimbingannya ..
> > Bagai mana cari tau harga wajar sebuah saham, apakah dia uda 
terlalu mahal
> > untuk di beli ato sudah mura dan boleh di beli?
> > Thanks in advance, Richard.
> >
> > 
> >
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Harga wajar saham

[Gambler.BEJ]

Well nothing's perfect Elaine DDM and ERR also doesn't makes sense cos 
Dividend varies over the years, next year's dividend could only be 50% 
of this year's. How could you calculate something that you don't know? 
RF Rates also changes at an even more rapid rate than dividend. These 
are all yardsticks so to help anal-ist to have something to hold on to 
and measure possible/likely scenarios. They are not perfect but they are 
all we got at the moment.

Elaine Sui wrote:
> /Well, I guess he did. But I was actually telling about Dividend 
> Discount Model and Equity Risk Premium, which are slightly different 
> from Gordon Growth Model. (Personally I think GGM doesnt make sense, 
> there is not such thing as constant growth rate, and it doesn't really 
> work on emerging countries)
>
> If he was here, I'd love to discuss this with him.
>
> Anyway, Richard said he's a newbie, so I guess we have to explain a 
> bit about valuation in the simplest way possible. Maybe you (or 
> anyone) can help him from technical point of view (if there's any..)
>
>
> *
> **Elaine*/*
> *
> On Mon, Jan 5, 2009 at 12:07 AM, jsx_consultant 
> mailto:jsx-consult...@centrin.net.id>> 
> wrote:
>
> Ini rumus Gordon Growth Model:
>
> Price = Deviden / (Expected Return-Expected Growth)
>
> Expected Growth dianggap nol, lagi RESESI.
>
> Dulu kan diajarin kang okoy... hehehe...
>
>
> --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
> , Elaine Sui 
> wrote:
> >
> > *Listen to me. I'll explain this as simple as possible. Okay?
> First, you
> > must BUY now. That's all. lol..[?] okay seriously, you should
> consider
> > comparing stocks' DPR (dividend/price ratio) vs RFRR (Risk free
> rate of
> > return) or simply the average bank deposit rate + 1% spread.
> >
> > Dividend/Price Ratio should NEVER be allowed to go above RFR ratio.
> > (otherwise it's undervalued)
> >
> > Example:
> > Let's say a stock price is 1000. The dividend forecast is around
> 100. That
> > makes the DPR = 100/1000=10%. while the current risk free rate of
> return
> > (RFRR) is only at 8%
> >
> > You see the DPR is higher than the current RFRR. So, the stock
> price MAY
> > adjust itself to have 8% DPR, means the stock price' fair value
> would be
> > around 100/8% = 1250. So the stock may advance around 25% from 1000
> (to
> > 1250) usually until the dividend is paid.
> >
> > Let's say for other stock, the dividend forecast is only 10. That
> makes the
> > DPR = 10/1000=1%, this means the stock price is way too high
> compared to its
> > dividend. So the stock price MAY plunge to 10/8%= 125 at worst,
> usually soon
> > after the dividend is paid.
> >
> > Case 1:
> > BUMI. On June 2008, BUMI price was 8000. The announced
> >
>  umi-bagi-dividen-usd317-jt
> 
> >dividend
> > was 111, and RFRR is, let's say, 8%. The simple calculation would
> be 111/8%
> > = 13xx. That'd be the fair value of BUMI.
> >
> > Case 2:
> > INCO. On Nov 1, 2007, INCO announced
> >  interim-2007-dividend-of-09787-per-share/
> 
> >that
> > it'd pay a dividend of $1 or around IDR 9000. INCO was 100k/share.
> The RFRR
> > is 8%, so INCO had a chance to rise to 9000/8% = 112k before the
> dividend is
> > finally paid. But the nickel price was already plunged at that
> time, so the
> > next dividend forecast fell, and so did the price. The latest
> dividend cmiiw
> > was around $0.2, that makes current fair value of INCO is around
> 25xx.
> >
> > I made you confused, didn't I..? [?] this post makes me
> less 'mysterious' lol
> > wth.. I guess you'd love to have a night class with Elaine.. [?]
> j/k..
> >
> > Elaine
> > *
> > 2009/1/4 Richard S 
> >
> > >  Para Suhu2x yg saya hormati.. saya sebagai newbi punya pertanyan
> > > fundamental mohon bimbingannya ..
> > > Bagai mana cari tau harga wajar sebuah saham, apakah dia uda
> terlalu mahal
> > > untuk di beli ato sudah mura dan boleh di beli?
> > > Thanks in advance, Richard.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
>
>
>
> 
>
> + +
> + + + + +
> Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus
> kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas.
> + + + + +
> + +Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>mailto:obrolan-bandar-fullfeatu...@yahoogroups.com
> 

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Harga wajar saham

[H. Ruslim]

Hi Elaine,

DPR means devidend payout ratio ?
I thought DPR result from devidend per share / Earning per share.
>From your example below, you divide it with the price stock ??
Thank's

rgds

Ruslim


> > *Listen to me. I'll explain this as simple as possible. Okay?
> First, you
> > must BUY now. That's all. lol..[?] okay seriously, you should
> consider
> > comparing stocks' DPR (dividend/price ratio) vs RFRR (Risk free
> rate of
> > return) or simply the average bank deposit rate + 1% spread.
> >
> > Dividend/Price Ratio should NEVER be allowed to go above RFR ratio.
> > (otherwise it's undervalued)
> >
> > Example:
> > Let's say a stock price is 1000. The dividend forecast is around
> 100. That
> > makes the DPR = 100/1000=10%. while the current risk free rate of
> return
> > (RFRR) is only at 8%
> >
> > You see the DPR is higher than the current RFRR. So, the stock
> price MAY
> > adjust itself to have 8% DPR, means the stock price' fair value
> would be
> > around 100/8% = 1250. So the stock may advance around 25% from 1000
> (to
> > 1250) usually until the dividend is paid.
> >
> > Let's say for other stock, the dividend forecast is only 10. That
> makes the
> > DPR = 10/1000=1%, this means the stock price is way too high
> compared to its
> > dividend. So the stock price MAY plunge to 10/8%= 125 at worst,
> usually soon
> > after the dividend is paid.
> >
> > Case 1:
> > BUMI. On June 2008, BUMI price was 8000. The announced
> >
>  umi-bagi-dividen-usd317-jt>dividend
> > was 111, and RFRR is, let's say, 8%. The simple calculation would
> be 111/8%
> > = 13xx. That'd be the fair value of BUMI.
> >
> > Case 2:
> > INCO. On Nov 1, 2007, INCO announced
> >  interim-2007-dividend-of-09787-per-share/>that
> > it'd pay a dividend of $1 or around IDR 9000. INCO was 100k/share.
> The RFRR
> > is 8%, so INCO had a chance to rise to 9000/8% = 112k before the
> dividend is
> > finally paid. But the nickel price was already plunged at that
> time, so the
> > next dividend forecast fell, and so did the price. The latest
> dividend cmiiw
> > was around $0.2, that makes current fair value of INCO is around
> 25xx.
> >
> > I made you confused, didn't I..? [?] this post makes me
> less 'mysterious' lol
> > wth.. I guess you'd love to have a night class with Elaine.. [?]
> j/k..
> >
> > Elaine
> > *
> > 2009/1/4 Richard S 
>
> >
> > > Para Suhu2x yg saya hormati.. saya sebagai newbi punya pertanyan
> > > fundamental mohon bimbingannya ..
> > > Bagai mana cari tau harga wajar sebuah saham, apakah dia uda
> terlalu mahal
> > > untuk di beli ato sudah mura dan boleh di beli?
> > > Thanks in advance, Richard.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
>
>  
>

RE: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Harga wajar saham

[RichardMux]

Pak Karno, 

Terimakasih buat sharing anda namun saya ada 1 perusahaan, gimana ya caranya
tau jumlah lembar saham yg beredar di pasaran?

Cheers, Richard.

 

From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com]
On Behalf Of karno@gmail.com
Sent: Monday, January 05, 2009 9:25 AM
To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Harga wajar saham

 

Ikutan sharing
Company valuation simpy = Present value of expected streams of earning after
discounted of cost of capital (setelah dikurangi biaya modal/bunga) 
Pengertian earning di sini adalah net (laba bersih)

Di sini sebagai contoh saya ambil penghasilan 10 tahun, pada kenyataannya
tergantung mau hitung berapa tahun, ini hanya untuk memudahkan perhitungan.
Misal proyeksi laba bersih perusahaan A =
tahun 1 = 100milyar
tahun 2 = 125milyar
tahun 3 = 140milyar
Tahun 4 s/d 10 = 150milyar. 
Cost of capital (pendekatan bunga di sini = bunga pinjaman) kita anggap =
15%
Jumlah saham beredar =500 juta lembar.

Maka nilai prsh =
Thn 1 = 100m/(1,15)^1 = 87m
Thn 2 = 125m/(1,15)^2= 95m
Thn 3 = 140m/(1,15)^3 = 92m
Thn 4 = 86m dst
maka total present value s/d tahun ke 10 = 684miliar.

Harga saham sendiri secara sederhana = nilai perusahaan/jumlah saham
beredar. Jadi nilai saham prsh A/lembarnya= 684m/500jt = 1368

Pada kenyataannya biaya bunga tidak flat setiap tahunnya, begitu juga
memprediksi laba (apalagi berbasis komoditi :) tidak mudah.

Pendekatan ini agak berbeda dgn yg ditulis Miss El terutama dalam 2 hal
yakni earning vs deviden dan bunga deposito vs bunga pinjaman.
Dari sudut pandang investor hitungan nona Elaine tidak salah. 
Menggiurkan sekali, kalau investasi saham bisa menghasilkan deviden sebesar
bunga deposito.

Cheers,

Sent from my BlackBerryR
powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT

  _  

From: "jsx_consultant" 
Date: Sun, 04 Jan 2009 17:07:51 -
To: 
Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Harga wajar saham

Ini rumus Gordon Growth Model:

Price = Deviden / (Expected Return-Expected Growth)

Expected Growth dianggap nol, lagi RESESI.

Dulu kan diajarin kang okoy... hehehe...

--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
<mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com> , Elaine Sui  
wrote:
>
> *Listen to me. I'll explain this as simple as possible. Okay? 
First, you
> must BUY now. That's all. lol..[?] okay seriously, you should 
consider
> comparing stocks' DPR (dividend/price ratio) vs RFRR (Risk free 
rate of
> return) or simply the average bank deposit rate + 1% spread.
> 
> Dividend/Price Ratio should NEVER be allowed to go above RFR ratio.
> (otherwise it's undervalued)
> 
> Example:
> Let's say a stock price is 1000. The dividend forecast is around 
100. That
> makes the DPR = 100/1000=10%. while the current risk free rate of 
return
> (RFRR) is only at 8%
> 
> You see the DPR is higher than the current RFRR. So, the stock 
price MAY
> adjust itself to have 8% DPR, means the stock price' fair value 
would be
> around 100/8% = 1250. So the stock may advance around 25% from 1000 
(to
> 1250) usually until the dividend is paid.
> 
> Let's say for other stock, the dividend forecast is only 10. That 
makes the
> DPR = 10/1000=1%, this means the stock price is way too high 
compared to its
> dividend. So the stock price MAY plunge to 10/8%= 125 at worst, 
usually soon
> after the dividend is paid.
> 
> Case 1:
> BUMI. On June 2008, BUMI price was 8000. The announced
> 
<http://economy.okezone.com/index.php/ReadStory/2008/06/12/21/118016/b
umi-bagi-dividen-usd317-jt>dividend
> was 111, and RFRR is, let's say, 8%. The simple calculation would 
be 111/8%
> = 13xx. That'd be the fair value of BUMI.
> 
> Case 2:
> INCO. On Nov 1, 2007, INCO announced
> <http://www.antara.co.id/en/arc/2007/11/1/pt-inco-tbk-approves-an-
interim-2007-dividend-of-09787-per-share/>that
> it'd pay a dividend of $1 or around IDR 9000. INCO was 100k/share. 
The RFRR
> is 8%, so INCO had a chance to rise to 9000/8% = 112k before the 
dividend is
> finally paid. But the nickel price was already plunged at that 
time, so the
> next dividend forecast fell, and so did the price. The latest 
dividend cmiiw
> was around $0.2, that makes current fair value of INCO is around 
25xx.
> 
> I made you confused, didn't I..? [?] this post makes me 
less 'mysterious' lol
> wth.. I guess you'd love to have a night class with Elaine.. [?] 
j/k..
> 
> Elaine
> *
> 2009/1/4 Richard S 
> 
> > Para Suhu2x yg saya hormati.. saya sebagai newbi punya pertanyan
> > fundamental mohon bimbingannya ..
> > Bagai mana cari tau harga wajar sebuah saham, apakah dia uda 
terlalu mahal
> > untuk di beli ato sudah mura dan boleh di beli?
> > Thanks in advance, Richard.
> >
> > 
> >
>

 

RE: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Harga wajar saham

[RichardMux]

Dear All (Elaine,Jsx-consultant,Karno&Gambler.Gej)

 

Thanks for your sharing, as complicated as it can sound it can at least help
to do a preliminary assessment of the stocks before taking another
thoughtless act. 

The DPR vs RFRR comparison is a very interesting approach taking into
consideration that these information are not hard to find and simple to
start with J (Thanks a bunch El).

 

Looking at the blogs shared though a little more intensive research is
required, the knowledge is a good foundation to have and start with, I will
try to analyze my current stock holdings and see if they are worth to hold
on to J (thanks a bunch Jsx-consultant)

 

Another interesting fact I have herd a lot about is that charts can speak to
us J, the above approach is a fundamental approach, but is it something we
can know also from by looking at charts?

 

Cheers, Richard.

 

From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com]
On Behalf Of Gambler.BEJ
Sent: Monday, January 05, 2009 10:50 AM
To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Harga wajar saham

 

Well nothing's perfect Elaine DDM and ERR also doesn't makes sense cos 
Dividend varies over the years, next year's dividend could only be 50% 
of this year's. How could you calculate something that you don't know? 
RF Rates also changes at an even more rapid rate than dividend. These 
are all yardsticks so to help anal-ist to have something to hold on to 
and measure possible/likely scenarios. They are not perfect but they are 
all we got at the moment.

Elaine Sui wrote:
> /Well, I guess he did. But I was actually telling about Dividend 
> Discount Model and Equity Risk Premium, which are slightly different 
> from Gordon Growth Model. (Personally I think GGM doesnt make sense, 
> there is not such thing as constant growth rate, and it doesn't really 
> work on emerging countries)
>
> If he was here, I'd love to discuss this with him.
>
> Anyway, Richard said he's a newbie, so I guess we have to explain a 
> bit about valuation in the simplest way possible. Maybe you (or 
> anyone) can help him from technical point of view (if there's any..)
>
>
> *
> **Elaine*/*
> *
> On Mon, Jan 5, 2009 at 12:07 AM, jsx_consultant 
> mailto:jsx-consultant%40centrin.net.id>
<mailto:jsx-consult...@centrin.net.id
<mailto:jsx-consultant%40centrin.net.id> >> 
> wrote:
>
> Ini rumus Gordon Growth Model:
>
> Price = Deviden / (Expected Return-Expected Growth)
>
> Expected Growth dianggap nol, lagi RESESI.
>
> Dulu kan diajarin kang okoy... hehehe...
>
>
> --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
<mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com> 
> <mailto:obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
<mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com> >, Elaine Sui 
> wrote:
> >
> > *Listen to me. I'll explain this as simple as possible. Okay?
> First, you
> > must BUY now. That's all. lol..[?] okay seriously, you should
> consider
> > comparing stocks' DPR (dividend/price ratio) vs RFRR (Risk free
> rate of
> > return) or simply the average bank deposit rate + 1% spread.
> >
> > Dividend/Price Ratio should NEVER be allowed to go above RFR ratio.
> > (otherwise it's undervalued)
> >
> > Example:
> > Let's say a stock price is 1000. The dividend forecast is around
> 100. That
> > makes the DPR = 100/1000=10%. while the current risk free rate of
> return
> > (RFRR) is only at 8%
> >
> > You see the DPR is higher than the current RFRR. So, the stock
> price MAY
> > adjust itself to have 8% DPR, means the stock price' fair value
> would be
> > around 100/8% = 1250. So the stock may advance around 25% from 1000
> (to
> > 1250) usually until the dividend is paid.
> >
> > Let's say for other stock, the dividend forecast is only 10. That
> makes the
> > DPR = 10/1000=1%, this means the stock price is way too high
> compared to its
> > dividend. So the stock price MAY plunge to 10/8%= 125 at worst,
> usually soon
> > after the dividend is paid.
> >
> > Case 1:
> > BUMI. On June 2008, BUMI price was 8000. The announced
> >
> <http://economy.okezone.com/index.php/ReadStory/2008/06/12/21/118016/b
> umi-bagi-dividen-usd317-jt
>
<http://economy.okezone.com/index.php/ReadStory/2008/06/12/21/118016/bumi-ba
gi-dividen-usd317-jt>>dividend
> > was 111, and RFRR is, let's say, 8%. The simple calculation would
> be 111/8%
> > = 13xx. That'd be the fair value of BUMI.
> >
> > Case 2:
> > INCO. On Nov 1, 2007, INCO announced
> > <http://www.antara.co.id/en/arc/2007/11/1/pt-inco-tbk-approves-an-
> interim-2

RE: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Harga wajar saham

[Wachjudi, Ferry]

Om Richard,

 

Bisa dilihat di jsx.co.id kok...atau kalau gak bisa akses juga
tanya aja ke bangku sebelah J

 

Cheers,

 

 

From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
[mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of RichardMux
Sent: Thursday, November 13, 2008 8:57 PM
To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Subject: RE: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Harga wajar saham

 

Pak Karno, 

Terimakasih buat sharing anda namun saya ada 1 perusahaan, gimana ya
caranya tau jumlah lembar saham yg beredar di pasaran?

Cheers, Richard.

 

From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
[mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of karno@gmail.com
Sent: Monday, January 05, 2009 9:25 AM
To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Harga wajar saham

 

Ikutan sharing
Company valuation simpy = Present value of expected streams of earning
after discounted of cost of capital (setelah dikurangi biaya
modal/bunga) 
Pengertian earning di sini adalah net (laba bersih)

Di sini sebagai contoh saya ambil penghasilan 10 tahun, pada
kenyataannya tergantung mau hitung berapa tahun, ini hanya untuk
memudahkan perhitungan.
Misal proyeksi laba bersih perusahaan A =
tahun 1 = 100milyar
tahun 2 = 125milyar
tahun 3 = 140milyar
Tahun 4 s/d 10 = 150milyar. 
Cost of capital (pendekatan bunga di sini = bunga pinjaman) kita anggap
= 15%
Jumlah saham beredar =500 juta lembar.

Maka nilai prsh =
Thn 1 = 100m/(1,15)^1 = 87m
Thn 2 = 125m/(1,15)^2= 95m
Thn 3 = 140m/(1,15)^3 = 92m
Thn 4 = 86m dst
maka total present value s/d tahun ke 10 = 684miliar.

Harga saham sendiri secara sederhana = nilai perusahaan/jumlah saham
beredar. Jadi nilai saham prsh A/lembarnya= 684m/500jt = 1368

Pada kenyataannya biaya bunga tidak flat setiap tahunnya, begitu juga
memprediksi laba (apalagi berbasis komoditi :) tidak mudah.

Pendekatan ini agak berbeda dgn yg ditulis Miss El terutama dalam 2 hal
yakni earning vs deviden dan bunga deposito vs bunga pinjaman.
Dari sudut pandang investor hitungan nona Elaine tidak salah. 
Menggiurkan sekali, kalau investasi saham bisa menghasilkan deviden
sebesar bunga deposito.

Cheers,

Sent from my BlackBerry(r)
powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT

  _  

From: "jsx_consultant" 
Date: Sun, 04 Jan 2009 17:07:51 -
To: 
Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Harga wajar saham

Ini rumus Gordon Growth Model:

Price = Deviden / (Expected Return-Expected Growth)

Expected Growth dianggap nol, lagi RESESI.

Dulu kan diajarin kang okoy... hehehe...

--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
<mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com> , Elaine Sui 

wrote:
>
> *Listen to me. I'll explain this as simple as possible. Okay? 
First, you
> must BUY now. That's all. lol..[?] okay seriously, you should 
consider
> comparing stocks' DPR (dividend/price ratio) vs RFRR (Risk free 
rate of
> return) or simply the average bank deposit rate + 1% spread.
> 
> Dividend/Price Ratio should NEVER be allowed to go above RFR ratio.
> (otherwise it's undervalued)
> 
> Example:
> Let's say a stock price is 1000. The dividend forecast is around 
100. That
> makes the DPR = 100/1000=10%. while the current risk free rate of 
return
> (RFRR) is only at 8%
> 
> You see the DPR is higher than the current RFRR. So, the stock 
price MAY
> adjust itself to have 8% DPR, means the stock price' fair value 
would be
> around 100/8% = 1250. So the stock may advance around 25% from 1000 
(to
> 1250) usually until the dividend is paid.
> 
> Let's say for other stock, the dividend forecast is only 10. That 
makes the
> DPR = 10/1000=1%, this means the stock price is way too high 
compared to its
> dividend. So the stock price MAY plunge to 10/8%= 125 at worst, 
usually soon
> after the dividend is paid.
> 
> Case 1:
> BUMI. On June 2008, BUMI price was 8000. The announced
> 
<http://economy.okezone.com/index.php/ReadStory/2008/06/12/21/118016/b
umi-bagi-dividen-usd317-jt>dividend
> was 111, and RFRR is, let's say, 8%. The simple calculation would 
be 111/8%
> = 13xx. That'd be the fair value of BUMI.
> 
> Case 2:
> INCO. On Nov 1, 2007, INCO announced
> <http://www.antara.co.id/en/arc/2007/11/1/pt-inco-tbk-approves-an-
interim-2007-dividend-of-09787-per-share/>that
> it'd pay a dividend of $1 or around IDR 9000. INCO was 100k/share. 
The RFRR
> is 8%, so INCO had a chance to rise to 9000/8% = 112k before the 
dividend is
> finally paid. But the nickel price was already plunged at that 
time, so the
> next dividend forecast fell, and so did the price. The latest 
dividend cmiiw
> was around $0.2, that makes current fair value of INCO is around 
25xx.
> 
> I made you confused, didn't I..? [?] this post makes me 
less 'mysterious' lol
> wth.. I guess you'd love to have a night class with Elaine.. [?] 
j/k..
> 
> Elaine
> *
> 2009/1/4 Richard S 
&g

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Harga wajar saham

[Andreas Butar Butar]

mbah mo tanya nie klo kapitalisasi itu jumlah saham beredarnya maksudnya
saham yang beredar publik (outstanding) atau yang authorized?
maaf NewBie,,,


AB

--- On Tue, 1/6/09, jsx_consultant  wrote:
From: jsx_consultant 
Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Harga wajar saham
To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Date: Tuesday, January 6, 2009, 12:42 PM











--- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, "RichardMux"  

wrote:

>

> Embah2x yg saya hormati.. ada yg boleh bantu saya melihat harga 

wajar saham

> PTBA?

> 



Metoda menghitung harga wajar ada banyak macamnya, anda bisa

baca pada buku2 yg ditulis Damodaran. 



Tapi kalo mau yg simple, Embah postingkan tulisan beberapa 

tahun lalu mengenai COP dan CLOP, mungkin bisa membantu anda 

mencari harga wajar suatu saham secara SEDERHANA.



---



Memilih saham dengan metoda COP dan CLOP by jsx-consultant 

  

Setelah melakukan penelitian yang cukup, embah menyimpulkan 

bahwa suatu cara yang CUKUP BAGUS dan SEDERHANA untuk 

investasi saham ialah dengan menggunakan metoda COP dan CLOP. 



Untuk lebih jelasnya embah uraikan dibawah ini: 



Metoda yang ada seperti PBV, ROE, PER mempunyai banyak 

KELEMAHAN, contoh: 

- PBV (price to book value) tidak menggambarkan KEMAMPUAN 

  perusahaan untuk menghasilkan keuntungan. Padahal investor 

  umumnya membeli saham dengan harapan perusahaan itu bisa 

  mencetak LABA yang baik atau keuntungan perusahaan dimasa 

  datang bisa melebihi harga investasi dan akhirnya 

  menghasilkan nilai LEBIH bagi investor. 

- ROE (Return on Equity) cara ini sudah bagus tapi masalahnya 

  keputusan membeli saham tidak semata karena ROE nya bagus 

  atau tidak, Banyak saham ROE nya tinggi tapi harganya 

  SUDAH TINGGI. Belum komplikasi yang ditimbulkan akibat 

  UTANG YG ABNORMAL. Perusahaan yang utangnya tinggi bisa 

  mengakibatkan EQUITYnya kecil atau malah NEGATIF dan akibatnya 

  ROE menjadi MISLEADING. 

- PER (price earning ratio), cara ini juga bagus TETAPI metoda 

  ini tidak menggambarkan KEMAMPUAN perusahaan MENCETAK LABA 

  secara penuh. 

  Sebuah perusahaan yang banyak utangnya akan mempunyai Earning 

  yang kecil karena keuntungannya habis untuk bayar bunga atau 

  menutup kerugian extra seperti Rugi Kurs. Perusahaan type 

  begini yang SERING DIRESTRUKTURISASI dan menghasilkan 

  keuntungan LUAR BIASA bagi investor karena perusahaannya 

  MEMANG BAGUS tapi struktur modal/utangnya harus diperbaiki. 



Jadi embah menyimpulkan diperlukan suatu RATIO yang didalamnya 

memperhitungkan: 

- Kemampuan perusahaan menghasilkan LABA OPERASI yaitu 

  OP= Operating Profit 

- Harga PASAR saham dan jumlah saham beredar (harga saham tidak 

  berdiri sendiri). Yang lebih penting ialah Capitalisasi 

  yaitu = Harga saham x jumlah saham beredar. 

- Hutang perusahaan atau Liability. 



Embah menyimpulkan diperlukan RATIO baru yaitu: 

- Ratio COP (unitnya = tahun) 

  Ratio Capitalisation to Operating Profit 

- Ratio CLOP (unitnya = tahun) 

  Ratio (Capitalisation + Liability) to Operating profit 



Apa makna ratio diatas ?: 

- Misal ratio COP = 3 tahun, artinya perusahaan tsb memerlukan 

  3 tahun agar Laba operasi bisa MENGCOVER semua saham yang 

  beredar pada harga pasar. 

- Misal ratio CLOP = 5 tahun, artinya perusahaan tsb memerlukan 

  waktu 5 tahun agar dana yang didapat dari LABA OPERASI selama 

  5 tahun tsb bisa untuk MENGCOVER semua saham yang beredar dan 

  MELUNASI semua LIABILITY nya. 



Ratio CLOP CUKUP comprehensive karena didalammnya kita 

sudah memperhitungkan 

- Harga pasar saham tsb dan jumlah saham beredar. 

- Laba operasi perusahaan tsb dan 

- Utang perusahaan. 



Silahkan dicoba, siapa tahu berminat memakainya.. .



> Terimakasih J

> 

>  

> 

> From: RichardMux [mailto:richardmux@ ...] 

> Sent: Tuesday, January 06, 2009 10:18 PM

> To: 'obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com'

> Subject: RE: [obrolan-bandar] Harga wajar samah

> 

>  

> 

> Hi El,

> 

> I used your method of calculation and came up with this result.

> 

>  

> 

> PTBA = 7700

> 

> Divident 45

> 

> 45/7700*100= 0.54

> 

> 45/8%=562.5 . is this the true value of PTBA?

> 

>  

> 

> Thanks El..

> 

> Cheers, Richard.

> 

>  

> 

> From: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com [mailto:obrolan-

ban...@yahoogroups. com]

> On Behalf Of Elaine Sui

> Sent: Sunday, January 04, 2009 11:27 PM

> To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com

> Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Harga wajar samah

> 

>  

> 

> Listen to me. I'll explain this as simple as possible. Okay? First, 

you must

> BUY now. That's all. lol.. okay seriously, you should consider 

comparing

> stocks' DPR (dividend/price ratio) vs RFRR (Risk free rate of 

return) or

> simply the average bank deposit rate + 1% spread.

> 

> Dividend/Price Ratio should NEVER be allowed to go above RFR ratio.

> (otherwise it's undervalued)

> 

> Example:

> Let's say a stock price is 1000. The dividend forecast is around 

100. That

> makes