RE: [ob] Re: Confirm dong Pak Oentoeng...
Terlepas pilpres 1 atau 2 putaran, BUY dulu sebagian... OOT dikit, makin dekat Pilpres kok makin banyak kecelakaan dan kejadian aneh2 ya... Kecelakaan hari ini aja: kereta api vs minibus, sore ini pesawat merpati... kejadian aneh2: fastnet ama indosat d sby error... To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com From: oentoeng...@yahoo.com Date: Mon, 6 Jul 2009 10:10:56 + Subject: [ob] Re: Confirm dong Pak Oentoeng... --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, alan Feihung dfa...@... wrote: Gimana nih pak, nyopet apa bagimana ni? Ini bukan saat nyopet pak, tapi nge-RAMPOK, kekekek Saya sekarang ini terus BELANJA, besok akan lebih AGRESIF. Secara strategi saya masih dg asumsi pilpres 2 putaran. Karena sampai detik ini blm ada POOLING ttg popularitas para capres. Sbg indikasi bhw pilpres lusa akan selesai dlm 1 putaran. Kalau ntar terjadi 2 putaran BENERAN, barang yg sudah di-belanja saya buat NYILEM bareng BOZZ, hahahadasar nasibbb _ See all the ways you can stay connected to friends and family http://www.microsoft.com/windows/windowslive/default.aspx
Re: [ob] Re: Confirm dong Pak Oentoeng...
Ada Pak Oen. Survey LSI pimpinan Pak Denny JA bilang 1 Putaran. FYI, LSI jg dipakai Mega saat kampanye legislatif. Jadi dia sdh tahu kantong-kantong nya. Ini setahu saya. CMIIW Powered By FREN BondBerry. (Bayar Pake Daun). Indeksbei3000® -Original Message- From: Provokator Saham oentoeng...@yahoo.com Date: Mon, 06 Jul 2009 10:10:56 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: [ob] Re: Confirm dong Pak Oentoeng... --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, alan Feihung dfa...@... wrote: Gimana nih pak, nyopet apa bagimana ni? Ini bukan saat nyopet pak, tapi nge-RAMPOK, kekekek Saya sekarang ini terus BELANJA, besok akan lebih AGRESIF. Secara strategi saya masih dg asumsi pilpres 2 putaran. Karena sampai detik ini blm ada POOLING ttg popularitas para capres. Sbg indikasi bhw pilpres lusa akan selesai dlm 1 putaran. Kalau ntar terjadi 2 putaran BENERAN, barang yg sudah di-belanja saya buat NYILEM bareng BOZZ, hahahadasar nasibbb + + + + + + + Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. + + + + + + +Yahoo! Groups Links + + + + + + + Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. + + + + + + +Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/ * Your email settings: Individual Email | Traditional * To change settings online go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/join (Yahoo! ID required) * To change settings via email: mailto:obrolan-bandar-dig...@yahoogroups.com mailto:obrolan-bandar-fullfeatu...@yahoogroups.com * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: obrolan-bandar-unsubscr...@yahoogroups.com * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
Re: [ob] Re: Confirm dong Pak Oentoeng...
Optimis sajalah Pak Oen TBumi mode on :) Powered By FREN BondBerry. (Bayar Pake Daun). Indeksbei3000® -Original Message- From: Provokator Saham oentoeng...@yahoo.com Date: Mon, 06 Jul 2009 10:59:25 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: [ob] Re: Confirm dong Pak Oentoeng... --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Ruz7 indeksbei3...@... wrote: Ada Pak Oen. Survey LSI pimpinan Pak Denny JA bilang 1 Putaran. FYI, LSI jg dipakai Mega saat kampanye legislatif. Jadi dia sdh tahu kantong-kantong nya. Ini setahu saya. CMIIW Powered By FREN BondBerry. (Bayar Pake Daun). Indeksbei3000® Anda memang benar pak, tapi yg saya maksud survey setelah berakhirnya kampanye...trus dibandingkan sebelumnya... Apakah ada perubahan? Karena secara hitungan politik, begitu terjadi 2 putaran, SBY-Boediono akan dihajar ama lawan2nya... Makanya saya tdk akan terlalu ber-spekulasi, sebelum semuanya menjadi JELAS. + + + + + + + Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. + + + + + + +Yahoo! Groups Links + + + + + + + Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. + + + + + + +Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/ * Your email settings: Individual Email | Traditional * To change settings online go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/join (Yahoo! ID required) * To change settings via email: mailto:obrolan-bandar-dig...@yahoogroups.com mailto:obrolan-bandar-fullfeatu...@yahoogroups.com * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: obrolan-bandar-unsubscr...@yahoogroups.com * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
Re: [ob] Re: Confirm dong Pak Oentoeng...
http://bright-info.blogspot.com/ Senin, 2009 Juli 06 CIMB - One or two rounds?http://bright-info.blogspot.com/2009/07/cimb-one-or-two-rounds.html Let’s start with the survey data i.e. the scientific way. Unfortunately, surveyors’ credibility has been dented after many admitted to financing by the candidates. The following data is mostly derived from the LSI survey conducted on 15-20 Jun 09 and published on 24 Jun. For this survey, LSI was partly financed by FoxIndonesia, which is a consultant to the SBY campaign team. And it has been under a lot of pressure of late, which probably explains why it took the pain to elaborate its method, samples, present and former clients (including Golkar PDI-P) as well as showcase its past record. It is still generally viewed as the most consistent of the surveyors. http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DQ8mgIMFFOQ/SlE5UZqbq6I/BEc/HggPj5jFUGg/s1600-h/LSI-1.JPGWith that in mind, its survey still shows that SBY is leading by a wide margin, albeit declining. JK’s popularity is rising rapidly. Assuming a linear projection to 8 Jul and using the decline/increase from previous surveys, adding margins for error (by bumping up JK Mega but scaling down SBY), SBY should still win by about 60%, by our estimates, which concurs with LSI’s calculation, though LSI was more generous to JK Mega than what our calculation shows. Assuming that the 8% of ‘undecided’ voters - based on the 15-20 Jun 09 survey – were to give their votes to candidates other than SBY, SBY would still secure a majority. LSI added that its track record (fortunately there were many regional elections over the past five years) shows that if a candidate leads by a wide margin prior to voting day, the candidate never loses. Nation wide, the survey data suggests SBY would win a majority. There is, however, another criterion to be met for winning in one round: the candidate must garner at least 20% of the votes in 17 provinces (out of 33), which is designed to ensure the winner is not Java-centric, since 60% of the voters reside in Java. Based on the 18 largest provinces – eligible voters wise – LSI’s survey suggests that SBY would easily meet the threshold, even after accounting for some error (“conservative” in Figure 4). The bottom line is, SBY would win in one round, based on the survey. Now come the less scientific view. Campaign strategy/targeting wise, Megawati is probably the most aggressive, offering the most radical programmes which appeal to the less fortunate in the population. She and her running mate, Prabowo, are the only ones offering ‘political contracts’, listed on their campaign website, among which is a vow to eliminate outsourcing for workers and legal action in the Lapindo mudflow disaster (that should make the Bakrie Group anxious). Research done by the leading newspaper, Kompas, shows that Megawati has won over strong support from fishermen and blue-collar workers in general, while JK’s core supporters reside outside Java and are higher net worth individuals (an interesting point). http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DQ8mgIMFFOQ/SlE5lMkompI/BEk/7TbktimaFZ8/s1600-h/LSI-2.JPGMeanwhile, SBY’s supporters are generally young, better educated and widespread demographically. JK’s popularity is gaining momentum. If such acceleration is superimposed on LSI’s survey, he might just be able to capture more than 20% of the vote, probably at the expense of SBY. This would make one round of election less likely, if Megawati manages to arrest her slide. If SBY is pitted against JK in the second round, the latter could be the dark horse, given that the Megawati camp would likely support him. Anecdotally, many appear less certain that elections could be completed in one round. Diposkan oleh BRIGHT INFO di 06:31http://bright-info.blogspot.com/2009/07/cimb-one-or-two-rounds.html 0 komentarhttp://bright-info.blogspot.com/2009/07/cimb-one-or-two-rounds.html#comments http://www.blogger.com/email-post.g?blogID=4647152175094201720postID=4564933349106272986 http://www.blogger.com/email-post.g?blogID=4647152175094201720postID=4564933349106272986 Pada 6 Juli 2009 17:59, Provokator Saham oentoeng...@yahoo.com menulis: --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Ruz7 indeksbei3...@... wrote: Ada Pak Oen. Survey LSI pimpinan Pak Denny JA bilang 1 Putaran. FYI, LSI jg dipakai Mega saat kampanye legislatif. Jadi dia sdh tahu kantong-kantong nya. Ini setahu saya. CMIIW Powered By FREN BondBerry. (Bayar Pake Daun). Indeksbei3000® Anda memang benar pak, tapi yg saya maksud survey setelah berakhirnya kampanye...trus dibandingkan sebelumnya... Apakah ada perubahan? Karena secara hitungan politik, begitu terjadi 2 putaran, SBY-Boediono akan dihajar ama lawan2nya... Makanya saya tdk akan terlalu ber-spekulasi, sebelum semuanya menjadi JELAS. + + + + + + + Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus
Re: [ob] Re: Confirm dong Pak Oentoeng...
http://pemilu.detiknews.com/read/2009/07/07/060416/1160196/700/lsi-adakan-quick-count-pilpres-pakai-dana-pribadi Jakarta - Lembaga Survei Indonesia (LSI) akan tetap melakukan quick count dan exit poll pada Pilpres 8 Juli. LSI pastikan dana yang mereka gunakan bukan dari pasangan capres-cawapres mana pun. LSI akan memakai dana Yayasan Pengembangan Demokrasi Indonesia (YPDI) yang mendirikan dan menghidupi lembaga survei ini, kata Manager Public Affairs LSI, Burhanuddin Muhtadi dalam rilis yang diterima detikcom, Selasa (7/7/2009). LSI juga akan mengembalikan dana dari Fox Indonesia yang nantinya akan dialokasikan untuk membiayai quick count. LSI merasa perlu melakukan ini untuk memberi jaminan tentang integritas hasil survei. Menurut Muhtadi, masih banyak sebagian masyarakat yang tidak dapat menerima konsep profesionalisme. Rakyat belum dapat menghilangkan kaitan antara sumber pendanaan dengan hasil survei. Masih banyak pihak yang meragukan prinsip inklusivitas dan non-partisan LSI, jelas Muhtadi. Pada pilpres mendatang, LSI akan mengerahkan 2.500 orang ke seluruh Indonesia untuk mengumpulkan data. LSI juga akan mengerahkan tenaga spot-checker, validator, call center, ahli statistik, IT dan puluhan tenaga lainnya untuk mensukseskan penghitungan cepat. ( mok / fiq ) On Tue, Jul 7, 2009 at 8:13 AM, Orang Sabarindeksbei3...@gmail.com wrote: http://bright-info.blogspot.com/ Senin, 2009 Juli 06 CIMB - One or two rounds? Let’s start with the survey data i.e. the scientific way. Unfortunately, surveyors’ credibility has been dented after many admitted to financing by the candidates. The following data is mostly derived from the LSI survey conducted on 15-20 Jun 09 and published on 24 Jun. For this survey, LSI was partly financed by FoxIndonesia, which is a consultant to the SBY campaign team. And it has been under a lot of pressure of late, which probably explains why it took the pain to elaborate its method, samples, present and former clients (including Golkar PDI-P) as well as showcase its past record. It is still generally viewed as the most consistent of the surveyors. With that in mind, its survey still shows that SBY is leading by a wide margin, albeit declining. JK’s popularity is rising rapidly. Assuming a linear projection to 8 Jul and using the decline/increase from previous surveys, adding margins for error (by bumping up JK Mega but scaling down SBY), SBY should still win by about 60%, by our estimates, which concurs with LSI’s calculation, though LSI was more generous to JK Mega than what our calculation shows. Assuming that the 8% of ‘undecided’ voters - based on the 15-20 Jun 09 survey – were to give their votes to candidates other than SBY, SBY would still secure a majority. LSI added that its track record (fortunately there were many regional elections over the past five years) shows that if a candidate leads by a wide margin prior to voting day, the candidate never loses. Nation wide, the survey data suggests SBY would win a majority. There is, however, another criterion to be met for winning in one round: the candidate must garner at least 20% of the votes in 17 provinces (out of 33), which is designed to ensure the winner is not Java-centric, since 60% of the voters reside in Java. Based on the 18 largest provinces – eligible voters wise – LSI’s survey suggests that SBY would easily meet the threshold, even after accounting for some error (“conservative” in Figure 4). The bottom line is, SBY would win in one round, based on the survey. Now come the less scientific view. Campaign strategy/targeting wise, Megawati is probably the most aggressive, offering the most radical programmes which appeal to the less fortunate in the population. She and her running mate, Prabowo, are the only ones offering ‘political contracts’, listed on their campaign website, among which is a vow to eliminate outsourcing for workers and legal action in the Lapindo mudflow disaster (that should make the Bakrie Group anxious). Research done by the leading newspaper, Kompas, shows that Megawati has won over strong support from fishermen and blue-collar workers in general, while JK’s core supporters reside outside Java and are higher net worth individuals (an interesting point). Meanwhile, SBY’s supporters are generally young, better educated and widespread demographically. JK’s popularity is gaining momentum. If such acceleration is superimposed on LSI’s survey, he might just be able to capture more than 20% of the vote, probably at the expense of SBY. This would make one round of election less likely, if Megawati manages to arrest her slide. If SBY is pitted against JK in the second round, the latter could be the dark horse, given that the Megawati camp would likely support him. Anecdotally, many appear less certain that elections could be completed in one round. Diposkan oleh BRIGHT INFO di 06:31 0 komentar Pada 6 Juli 2009 17:59, Provokator
