Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: plantation blon kemahalan ah, here's a simple model but sufficient...
Kalau UNSP dibandingkan dengan SGRO lebih prospektif mana pak? trims kang_ocoy_maen_saham [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: karena masing masing saham punya kakarkteristik masing2 makanya PER Rating yg wajar beda2 oom tibum... tergantung EPS gROWTH rATE NYA, dividen yieldnya, profil risiko dan sustainability earningnya juga. khusus untuk perusahaan growth e yg dipakai di PE Rating diambil Forward E ketika semua growth story implied trus yg dipresent value kan... ya iyalah yg penting mah cuann.. yang penting cuann dan kasih sayang.. hahahahaha --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, tbumi [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, kang_ocoy_maen_saham kang_ocoy_maen_saham@ wrote: UNSP Growthnya lebih kenceng, tp bussiness en financial risknya lebih besar dr LSIP dan AALI. SIP : tbumi Asing lebih suka LSIP karena usaha ini dari zaman Belanda. AALI karena dari group Astra dan modal yg lebih kuat, maka tentu saja AALI berkembang lebih pesat dari saham CPO lainnya. Sedangkan UNSP, harga sahamnya paling murah dari emiten CPO lainnya, tentu saja investor akan cari saham yg lebih murah saja karena UNSP juga di CPO. Jadi masing masing emiten ada uniknya masing masing. Yg terpenting bisa cuan dulu. - Looking for last minute shopping deals? Find them fast with Yahoo! Search.
Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: plantation blon kemahalan ah, here's a simple model but sufficient...
Baca bukunya Iyung Pohan kalo mau serius invest di CPO judulnya CPO ada di Gramedia di bagian pertanian/perkebunan. Antara UNSP dan SGRO gw pilih UNSP. --- mozart Adhianto [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Kalau UNSP dibandingkan dengan SGRO lebih prospektif mana pak? trims kang_ocoy_maen_saham [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: karena masing masing saham punya kakarkteristik masing2 makanya PER Rating yg wajar beda2 oom tibum... tergantung EPS gROWTH rATE NYA, dividen yieldnya, profil risiko dan sustainability earningnya juga. khusus untuk perusahaan growth e yg dipakai di PE Rating diambil Forward E ketika semua growth story implied trus yg dipresent value kan... ya iyalah yg penting mah cuann.. yang penting cuann dan kasih sayang.. hahahahaha --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, tbumi [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, kang_ocoy_maen_saham kang_ocoy_maen_saham@ wrote: UNSP Growthnya lebih kenceng, tp bussiness en financial risknya lebih besar dr LSIP dan AALI. SIP : tbumi Asing lebih suka LSIP karena usaha ini dari zaman Belanda. AALI karena dari group Astra dan modal yg lebih kuat, maka tentu saja AALI berkembang lebih pesat dari saham CPO lainnya. Sedangkan UNSP, harga sahamnya paling murah dari emiten CPO lainnya, tentu saja investor akan cari saham yg lebih murah saja karena UNSP juga di CPO. Jadi masing masing emiten ada uniknya masing masing. Yg terpenting bisa cuan dulu. - Looking for last minute shopping deals? Find them fast with Yahoo! Search.
Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: plantation blon kemahalan ah, here's a simple model but sufficient...
Kang Ocoy, Kalo Lsip gimana? Dibanding dgn Aali? Trims!!! Salam, kang_ocoy_maen_saham [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: -Analyst Mode On- I Myself personally dont think the plantation were overvalued yet... Fully Valued Yes but Overvalued is yet to reach... I have this little method i usually use that might not be strong compares to the DCF and asset analysis but it comes very handy when all i need is quick screening. (but its stonger than simple PE and PEG Model, after im screening the basic with these model than i moved on to the DCF or Asset-Based Analysis) here is my simple computation : The normal characteristic of our equity market is (under no extra bullish condition like last year) : EPS Growth of 10%, Dividen Yield of 4.4% normal required rate of return of our market were 14% and the rule of thumb of fair-valued market PE is 16. the simple function then Would BE : 16 = zero growth PE + ((firm's eps growth * growth rate appreciation multiple) + (firm's dividen yield * dividen yield multiple )) zero growth PE of indonesian market = 6.66 (representing a 15% Required rate of return) the dividen yield multiple is 1 PE rating add for every 1% dividen yield (linear) the growth appreciation multiple is 0.53 PE Rating add for every 1% growth rate for every 1% EPS Growth there is a function of PE rating appreciation by 0.53 Point, the appreciation rating point of 0.53 only apply up until the long term EPS Growth Rate of 20%, starting from Growth rate of 21% the rating add point decrease to 0.40 Point since higher growth also means higher risks and higher unsustainability. this is an example of why AALI is still not expensive at this level : AALI'S Long Term Growth Rate : Historical 3 year growth rate = 40.03 Forward Long Term Growth Rate Estimated = 25% (conservative) Dividen Yield = 5.5% AALI'S Basic PE Rating = 6.66 + (( 20 * 0.53) + (5*0.40)) + 5.5 = 24.76 AALI's Basic PE Rating is 24.76 there is adjustment based on every company's unique characteristic that can trim or leverage the basic PE. the formula : the fair value P/E Formula = Basic PE * (1+(1-Bussiness Risk))*(1+(1-Financial Risk))*(1+(1-earnings visibility)) -the average player on the industry would have the Basic PE adjusting factor equal to 1 in all 3 factors (bussiness risk, financial risk, earnings visibility). the more well managed the company than the risk factor is less(1). and the more risky the company than the industry than the risk factor is more (1) but however good the company characteristic compare to peers, we limit the adjustment up to only + 20% of its basic PE. why??, it puts a limit so that we keep being objective and not fall in love with the stock. there is a ceiling to the upper adjustment but if the company were bad we'll put no floor or limit to the downside adjustment... the adjustment regarding AALI'S Bussiness risk, financial risk and earnings visibility goes like this : AALI's Bussiness Risk = AALI'S Plant's is mature and large area covering. relatively more stable in its production than its competitor. it is the most experienced player on the industry. AALI's Bussiness Risk = 0.90 AALI'S Financial Risk = Debt is very little, financial strength is very impressive, the profit margin is fat AALI's Financial Risk = 0.85 AALI'S Earning Visibility = CPO demand is likely to be strong even in the days to come, it used for foods (non transfat), increasing demand for biodiesel etc. AALI's cashflow were stable and solid so the visibilty of the projection is nice and bulletproof. AALI's Ea rning visibility = 1.00 the adjustment : Fair Value Rating : 24.76 * 1.1 * 1.15 * 1 = 31.31 PE Rating AALI = 31.31 Using today price and its TTM EPS, the current ttm per rating of AALI is 32.23 that will make AALI Rating only Fully Valued , but hey, were not using TTM's Earning arent we?? using 2008's earning inflation adjusted, AALI's PE rating would be just around 23 that give us quite a room for the price to keep expanding before it goes overvalued it is fullyvalued now but the forward value still give a quite room for the appreciation AALI's 12 month target = around 4 recommendation = Add *ceritanya lagi nebak jalan pikiran analis2 di sell-side heheheh, kalo saya di buy-side sih yah kasih margin of safety lah dari nilai target, belon mo lepas tp ga beli jg (udah dibawah)* hahahaha --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, tbumi [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, abdulrahim abdulrahim abdul.rahman.rahim@ wrote: 5 hari ini CPO rata2 udah pada pernah 10%. Ada yang tiap hari. Yang lainnya gantian. KECUALI TBLA... Kali ini apa nona TBLA masih bikin jengkel penggemarnya, atau nanti akan dapat giliran untuk naik 10% juga??? On Jan 9, 2008 4:14 AM, Rei highwaystar91@ wrote: Pesta CPO masih lanjut nih...aali lsip naik kenceng! Wah hebat... Enaknya
Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: plantation blon kemahalan ah, here's a simple model but sufficient...
Kayaknya datanya banyak yg salah Pak DE, tertukar antara close highnya. Maaf klo mungkin saya yg salah liat. long term bullish, short term bearish... setuju aja. lagi ngarepin barang murah sih hehehehe... - Original Message - From: Dean Earwicker To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Sent: Thursday, January 10, 2008 12:44 AM Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: plantation blon kemahalan ah, here's a simple model but sufficient... Penggemar TA silahkan komentar. (sumber: Bloomberg) Long term bullish, short term... I dunno. Koreksi dulu? Note: USD 1 = 3.2665 ringgit Regards, DE On Jan 9, 2008 4:24 PM, kang_ocoy_maen_saham [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: -Analyst Mode On- I Myself personally dont think the plantation were overvalued yet... Fully Valued Yes but Overvalued is yet to reach... -- No virus found in this incoming message. Checked by AVG Free Edition. Version: 7.5.516 / Virus Database: 269.17.13/1214 - Release Date: 1/8/2008 1:38 PM
Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: plantation blon kemahalan ah, here's a simple model but sufficient...
kalau UNSP bagaimana, kang Ocoy ? On Jan 10, 2008 7:54 AM, kang_ocoy_maen_saham [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Pake Model yg sama yah coba kita input deh (model absolut PE ini sengaja saya bagi disini soalnya relatif simpel tp lebih powerful dr PER Model / PEG Model biasa., Model ini digunakan oleh komunitas value investing di luar sana. Brokerage lokal sepengetahuan saya biasanya masih pake simpel PEG dan PER to Peers buat valuasinya, tp absolut PE ini lebih flawless krn rating PE disini mostly tergantung kekuatan fundamentalnya, bukan dr nilai rating historikal / relatif ke peers(PER Model biasa kan gitu). sementara kelemahan PEG Model biasa adalah dia cenderung linear padahal gara2 yg linear itu relasi antara nilai fundamental dan valuasi ratingnya jadi ngaco krn terdistorsi hanya oleh growthnya) Basic PE calculation : LSIP Data Long Term Growth Rate : 18% (3-5 years) Dividen Yield : 1 - 2% Bussiness Risk : 0.90 (kualitas baik, pembibitan baik, pengalaman cukup, hanya dengan dikuasai oleh INDF kayanya EPS Growth dy bisa tidak terlalu leverage krn INDF kalo mo ambil sawit dr LSIP pasti harga diskon lahhh, hehe..) Financial Risk : 1.10 (a not too impressive financial strength) Earning Visibility : 0.95 (ada stand by buyer (indf group), salah satu pemain termapan di industri ini. Calculation Basic PE : 6.6 + 9.54 + 2 = 18.14 ADJUSTMENT : 18.14 * 1.1 * 0.9 * 1.05 = 18.9 Earning 2008 E = Rp 500 Fully Valued Price : Rp 9450 err,... LSIP is a bit overvalued kayaknya... harga ini mungkin harga buat end 2008, krn kalo pake Forward E 2009 - 2010 baru kira2 level harga ini justified. tp mungkin saya agak sedikit terlalu konservatif. bapak bisa buat adjustmentnya sendiri sesuai estimasi dan analisa bapak. berdasarkan model yg sama AALI masih lebih ada potential upsidenya dibanding LSIP, (valuation-wise) --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com, Rei [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Kang Ocoy, Kalo Lsip gimana? Dibanding dgn Aali? Trims!!! Salam, kang_ocoy_maen_saham [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: -Analyst Mode On- I Myself personally dont think the plantation were overvalued yet... Fully Valued Yes but Overvalued is yet to reach... I have this little method i usually use that might not be strong compares to the DCF and asset analysis but it comes very handy when all i need is quick screening. (but its stonger than simple PE and PEG Model, after im screening the basic with these model than i moved on to the DCF or Asset-Based Analysis) here is my simple computation : The normal characteristic of our equity market is (under no extra bullish condition like last year) : EPS Growth of 10%, Dividen Yield of 4.4% normal required rate of return of our market were 14% and the rule of thumb of fair-valued market PE is 16. the simple function then Would BE : 16 = zero growth PE + ((firm's eps growth * growth rate appreciation multiple) + (firm's dividen yield * dividen yield multiple )) zero growth PE of indonesian market = 6.66 (representing a 15% Required rate of return) the dividen yield multiple is 1 PE rating add for every 1% dividen yield (linear) the growth appreciation multiple is 0.53 PE Rating add for every 1% growth rate for every 1% EPS Growth there is a function of PE rating appreciation by 0.53 Point, the appreciation rating point of 0.53 only apply up until the long term EPS Growth Rate of 20%, starting from Growth rate of 21% the rating add point decrease to 0.40 Point since higher growth also means higher risks and higher unsustainability. this is an example of why AALI is still not expensive at this level : AALI'S Long Term Growth Rate : Historical 3 year growth rate = 40.03 Forward Long Term Growth Rate Estimated = 25% (conservative) Dividen Yield = 5.5% AALI'S Basic PE Rating = 6.66 + (( 20 * 0.53) + (5*0.40)) + 5.5 = 24.76 AALI's Basic PE Rating is 24.76 there is adjustment based on every company's unique characteristic that can trim or leverage the basic PE. the formula : the fair value P/E Formula = Basic PE * (1+(1-Bussiness Risk))*(1+(1-Financial Risk))*(1+(1-earnings visibility)) -the average player on the industry would have the Basic PE adjusting factor equal to 1 in all 3 factors (bussiness risk, financial risk, earnings visibility). the more well managed the company than the risk factor is less(1). and the more risky the company than the industry than the risk factor is more (1) but however good the company characteristic compare to peers, we limit the adjustment up to only + 20% of its basic PE. why??, it puts a limit so that we keep being objective and not fall in love with the stock. there is a ceiling to the upper adjustment but if the company were bad we'll put no floor or limit to the downside adjustment... the adjustment regarding AALI'S Bussiness risk,
Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: plantation blon kemahalan ah, here's a simple model but sufficient...
Wah, bloombergnya salah kah? Kalau gitu mohon di share gambar yang benar, kalau ada.. Regards, DE On Jan 10, 2008 2:02 AM, Tazmania Devil [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Kayaknya datanya banyak yg salah Pak DE, tertukar antara close highnya. Maaf klo mungkin saya yg salah liat. long term bullish, short term bearish... setuju aja. lagi ngarepin barang murah sih hehehehe...
Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: plantation blon kemahalan ah, here's a simple model but sufficient...
Pak DE, saya cuman liat ada yg aneh di candlesticknya. Contohnya spt ini: Biasanya sih tertukar antara close highnya. Selama ini saya download data utk metasock dari BEI juga sering ngalami hal ini, biasanya yg tertukar close dgn high dan open dgn low price. Klo di metastock bisa di edit langsung... gak tau klo di bloomberg. Mungkin rekan2 OB yg download data dr BEI juga sering ngalamin hal yg sama, atau cuman saya saja yg ngalami hal ini. Thanks, Taz - Original Message - From: Dean Earwicker To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Sent: Thursday, January 10, 2008 10:15 AM Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: plantation blon kemahalan ah, here's a simple model but sufficient... Wah, bloombergnya salah kah? Kalau gitu mohon di share gambar yang benar, kalau ada.. Regards, DE On Jan 10, 2008 2:02 AM, Tazmania Devil [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Kayaknya datanya banyak yg salah Pak DE, tertukar antara close highnya. Maaf klo mungkin saya yg salah liat. long term bullish, short term bearish... setuju aja. lagi ngarepin barang murah sih hehehehe... -- No virus found in this incoming message. Checked by AVG Free Edition. Version: 7.5.516 / Virus Database: 269.19.0/1216 - Release Date: 1/9/2008 10:16 AM clip_image001.jpg
Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: plantation blon kemahalan ah, here's a simple model but sufficient...
Iya ya saya juga lihat. Hmmm, mesti nanya ke customer servicenya nih. Ok, thanks pak Taz. Betul, data di BEI juga sering seperti itu. Regards, DE On Jan 10, 2008 2:27 PM, Tazmania Devil [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Pak DE, saya cuman liat ada yg aneh di candlesticknya. Contohnya spt ini: Biasanya sih tertukar antara close highnya. Selama ini saya download data utk metasock dari BEI juga sering ngalami hal ini, biasanya yg tertukar close dgn high dan open dgn low price. Klo di metastock bisa di edit langsung... gak tau klo di bloomberg. Mungkin rekan2 OB yg download data dr BEI juga sering ngalamin hal yg sama, atau cuman saya saja yg ngalami hal ini. Thanks, Taz clip_image001.jpg
