Kang Ocoy,
Kalo Lsip gimana? Dibanding dgn Aali? Trims!!!
Salam,
kang_ocoy_maen_saham <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
-Analyst Mode On-
I Myself personally dont think the plantation were overvalued yet... Fully
Valued Yes but Overvalued is yet to reach...
I have this little method i usually use that might not be strong compares to
the DCF and asset analysis but it comes very handy when all i need is quick
screening. (but its stonger than simple PE and PEG Model, after im screening
the basic with these model than i moved on to the DCF or Asset-Based Analysis)
here is my simple computation :
The normal characteristic of our equity market is (under no extra bullish
condition like last year) :
EPS Growth of 10%, Dividen Yield of 4.4%
normal required rate of return of our market were 14%
and the rule of thumb of "fair-valued" market PE is 16.
the simple function then Would BE :
16 = zero growth PE + ((firm's eps growth * growth rate appreciation multiple)
+ (firm's dividen yield * dividen yield multiple ))
zero growth PE of indonesian market = 6.66 (representing a 15% Required rate
of return)
the dividen yield multiple is 1 PE rating add for every 1% dividen yield
(linear)
the growth appreciation multiple is 0.53 PE Rating add for every 1% growth rate
for every 1% EPS Growth there is a function of PE rating appreciation by 0.53
Point, the appreciation rating point of 0.53 only apply up until the long term
EPS Growth Rate of 20%, starting from Growth rate of 21% the rating add point
decrease to 0.40 Point since higher growth also means higher risks and higher
unsustainability.
this is an example of why AALI is still not expensive at this level :
AALI'S Long Term Growth Rate :
Historical 3 year growth rate = 40.03
Forward Long Term Growth Rate Estimated = 25% (conservative)
Dividen Yield = 5.5%
AALI'S Basic PE Rating =
6.66 + (( 20 * 0.53) + (5*0.40)) + 5.5
= 24.76
AALI's Basic PE Rating is 24.76
there is adjustment based on every company's unique characteristic that can
trim or leverage the basic PE.
the formula :
the fair value P/E Formula = Basic PE * (1+(1-Bussiness Risk))*(1+(1-Financial
Risk))*(1+(1-earnings visibility))
-the average player on the industry would have the Basic PE adjusting factor
equal to 1 in all 3 factors (bussiness risk, financial risk, earnings
visibility). the more well managed the company than the risk factor is
less(<1). and the more risky the company than the industry than the risk factor
is more (>1)
but however good the company characteristic compare to peers, we limit the
adjustment up to only + 20% of its basic PE. why??, it puts a limit so that we
keep being objective and not "fall in love" with the stock.
there is a ceiling to the upper adjustment but if the company were bad we'll
put no floor or limit to the downside adjustment...
the adjustment regarding AALI'S Bussiness risk, financial risk and earnings
visibility goes like this :
AALI's Bussiness Risk = AALI'S Plant's is mature and large area covering.
relatively more stable in its production than its competitor. it is the most
experienced player on the industry.
AALI's Bussiness Risk = 0.90
AALI'S Financial Risk = Debt is very little, financial strength is very
impressive, the profit margin is fat
AALI's Financial Risk = 0.85
AALI'S Earning Visibility = CPO demand is likely to be strong even in the days
to come, it used for foods (non transfat), increasing demand for biodiesel etc.
AALI's cashflow were stable and solid so the visibilty of the projection is
nice and bulletproof.
AALI's Ea rning visibility = 1.00
the adjustment :
Fair Value Rating : 24.76 * 1.1 * 1.15 * 1 = 31.31
PE Rating AALI = 31.31
Using today price and its TTM EPS, the current ttm per rating of AALI is 32.23
that will make AALI Rating only "Fully Valued" ,
but hey, were not using TTM's Earning arent we??
using 2008's earning inflation adjusted, AALI's PE rating would be just around
23
that give us quite a room for the price to keep expanding before it goes
"overvalued"
it is fullyvalued now but the forward value still give a quite room for the
appreciation
AALI's 12 month target = around 40000
recommendation = Add
*ceritanya lagi nebak jalan pikiran analis2 di sell-side heheheh, kalo saya di
buy-side sih yah kasih margin of safety lah dari nilai target, belon mo lepas
tp ga beli jg (udah dibawah)*
hahahaha
--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "tbumi" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "abdulrahim abdulrahim"
> abdul.rahman.rahim@ wrote:
> >
> > 5 hari ini CPO rata2 udah pada pernah > 10%. Ada yang tiap hari.
> Yang
> > lainnya gantian.
> >
> > KECUALI TBLA...
> >
> > Kali ini apa nona TBLA masih bikin jengkel penggemarnya, atau nanti
> > akan dapat giliran untuk naik > 10% juga???
> >
> > On Jan 9, 2008 4:14 AM, Rei highwaystar91@ wrote:
> > >
> > > Pesta CPO masih lanjut nih...aali lsip naik kenceng! Wah hebat...
> > > Enaknya nonton doang nih.
> > >
> > > ps: No F word :)
>
> > SIP : TBUMI
>
> Saham saham CPO sdh kemahalan, hati hati saja karena nanti
> ada koreksi yg dalam.
>
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