[OGD] Re: OGD V6 #238 Message 5: Global Warming

2004-06-09 Thread Frederick JM Depuydt
Hello Bert,

yes, you're totally correct. But what I hinted at was the fact that we're stuck with a 
model where no-one can put a magnitude on. One group shows us drastic increases in 
temp, the others a significant or a minor influence.

Or do you contradict me, Bert, if I say that extrapolation is the sum of all fears 
for a scientist? 

Frederick

Fredrick JM Depuydt faults the data indicative of Global Warming as 
statistical in nature.  Please note that an important concept of the Philosophy of 
Science is that ALL data is statistical.  Information that cannot be expressed as 
within an explicit statistical probability is without meaning.  Global Warming 
is as real as any other fact of science.Bert 
Pressman



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[OGD] Re: Carbon dioxide, nitrogen fixation, and global warming

2004-06-08 Thread Frederick JM Depuydt
Hello Mark,

Global warming isn't the problem, the problem is that the people who are in charge 
have a different agenda and priority. Alltough scientists find it rather difficult to 
come up with a solid pointer to the fact it is happening (the majority of the research 
has a statistical component that leaves interpreters with uncertanties) there are a 
lot of small pointers that don't seem to find attention (phenology; movement of 
plant, insect, land- and sea animal habitats; insurance-companies are seriously 
raising their costs; ...)

I hope I don't come over as one of those pessimistic told you so backseat drivers. 
My personal feelings on the event are rather opposite: if global warming is gonna give 
us trouble, it's simply because humanity as a species is less smart than it thinks it 
is. Darwin must be spinning in his grave :D

We're not in charge, nature is.

thanks for reading,
Frederick

One topic that comes up on the OGD every now and then is the use of 
carbon dioxide to speed up orchid growth. This is an interesting article 
on carbon dioxide and plant growth. One thing to keep in mind that AJ 
Hicks has pointed out in the past is that orchids are survivalist, and 
can grow in less then ideal situations when some nutrients are not 
available.

Carbon dioxide theory debunked

Many scientists hope the rising concentration of carbon dioxide in the 
atmosphere will be offset by greater growth of plants on the Earth's 
surface. A study in the journal Science suggests this may be wishful 
thinking. Plant matter is made up largely of carbon-based molecules 
synthesized when plants capture carbon dioxide from the air during 
photosynthesis. The forests, grasslands and phytoplankton of the oceans 
are all huge sinks for carbon in the environment. If plants grow faster 
or bigger in the presence of more carbon dioxide, theoretically they 
could drain off some of the excess carbon entering the atmosphere 
through the burning of fossil fuels and other human activities. A 
research team led by Bruce Hungate at Northern Arizona University 
studied what happened to Galactia elliottii, a vine in the bean family 
that grows in coastal Florida, during a seven-year experiment in which 
enclosed but roofless plots of land were exposed to elevated 
concentrations of carbon dioxide.
To accumulate carbon in the form of biomass, the vines also have to 
accumulate -- or /fix/ -- nitrogen, another essential element in 
living matter. Hungate and his colleagues used nitrogen fixation as a 
yardstick for growth. In the first year of the experiment, the vines 
doubled their nitrogen fixation -- clear evidence they were flourishing 
in response to the higher carbon dioxide levels. That response fell off 
rapidly, however. In the past three years, the elevated carbon dioxide 
levels suppressed nitrogen below normal fixation.
Why did this happen?
It turns out the vines were running out of molybdenum, a trace metal 
captured from soil that they need for one of their nitrogen-fixing 
enzymes. When molybdenum became scarce, the excess carbon dioxide became 
unusable.
-- /Washington/ /Post/

 The following are quotes from an article on carbon dioxide emissions 
credit trading of industries under the Kyoto treaty. It kind of gives 
you an idea of the problem with carbon dioxide and global warming. The 
US is not a signature to the Kyoto treaty.  

 As world takes halting steps, some try trading `hot air' to buy time on 
climate

By CHARLES J. HANLEY
AP Special Correspondent

 If carbon dioxide had a color, if people saw the sky getting darker, 
people would have no problem recognizing what's going on, said 
climatologist David Pierce of San Diego's Scripps Institution of 
Oceanography.

Some scientists and engineers said so much time has been lost that only 
carbon sequestration -- technology to capture and store emissions -- 
can save the climate. One calculated, however, that a Lake Michigan in 
liquid CO-2 would have to be hoarded away in the next 100 years.

The full article: 
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/news/archive/2004/06/05/international1309EDT0538.DTL

Mark Sullivan



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[OGD] Re: Excluding hybrids from CITES

2004-06-02 Thread Frederick JM Depuydt
Hi,

I'm a bit puzzled about this...does this measure include all orchid hybrids or just 
the tropical or the horticultural hybrids? Many native orchid sites I've seen have a 
number of natural hybrids, so if I'm not mistaking the poachers get a free ticket for 
these plants ? Also what about variations in a species that could misleadingly be used 
to call it a hybrid and get it shipped as such ? I thought CITES main goal was to 
protect wild plants, but this measure seems to partially step back from this. I'm sure 
it'll do the horticultural industry a favour but it seems to erode the fundamental 
task of CITES.

greetings from Belgium,
Frederick


Though I am in agreement with the removal of hybrids from CITES (all plants 
should be removed from CITES as far as I am concerned since it is a trade 
agreement not, a conservation measure), it is a start.  The practical part of it 
though is that to have the plants determined as hybrids you must document them 
as such, not much different than what was required for a certificate of 
artificial propagation.  So, on paper we have made strides forward, when in 
actuality, it is just going to be a substitution of one for the other.  For most 
small 
producers, it won't change anything.  For the large ones, it will make it 
simpler. I hope I am wrong, but having been in government most of my professional 
career, I know how they think and work.



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