Re: Re: Intervention In Iraq?
Michael Pollak: > But seriously, Sabri -- is there is a chance > in hell that the Turkish military will ever > enter a war on the same side as the Kurds of > Northern Iraq? Everyone knows the Kurds have > been obsessively single-minded about wanting > an independent Kurdistan for at least a century. > And I thought that was the last thing on earth > the Turkish military wants to see happen. No? You never know my friend. Didn't I tell in my previous post that all personal probability distributions regarding the future are subjective? We better ask this question to our game theoretician friends. Those who are in cut-throat competition today may find a strategy change towards cooperative competition attractive tomorrow. Is this not true? On the other hand, I agree with you. I don't care about what Safire says. What I care about is what the Turkish officials say. During WWI, it was the most irrational thing to do for the Ottoman Empire to enter the war on the side of Germany and they did. They could have chosen the other side or stayed neutral or what have you. Don't expect too much rationality from us easterners I would say. By the way, I have doubts about westerners' rationality as well. Best, Sabri
Re: Re: Intervention In Iraq?
On Mon, 4 Feb 2002, Sabri Oncu wrote: > Whenever Safire says something of this sort, almost all Turkish > newspapers make it a headline. Remarkable. So his daydreams become Turkey's headlines. I can almost imagine a scenario where the next time Pentagon officials show up, Turkey's military ask all about it because they've seen in the papers and everyone's been talking about it, so our guys start to think your guys are are obsessed by it, and we start to look at it as if it were possible. But seriously, Sabri -- is there is a chance in hell that the Turkish military will ever enter a war on the same side as the Kurds of Northern Iraq? Everyone knows the Kurds have been obsessively single-minded about wanting an independent Kurdistan for at least a century. And I thought that was the last thing on earth the Turkish military wants to see happen. No? Michael __ Michael PollakNew York [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Re: Intervention In Iraq?
Michael Pollak wrote: > So I'm not saying it's impossible we might be > contemplating such a plan. But I wouldn't take > it seriously unless someone other than Safire > starts saying it. Whenever Safire says something of this sort, almost all Turkish newspapers make it a headline. Well, maybe I exaggerated it a bit but how would the Turkish man/woman on the street know who this Safire is? It is good for the Turkish media to quote him in their first pages though: a mighty American NYT columnist saying "nice" things about Turkey help them sell more papers. This Iraq intervention question has been around back there for quite sometime, however. We will see. I stopped making forecasts of any kind a while ago, or so I kid myself. Best, Sabri
Re: Intervention In Iraq?
On Fri, 1 Feb 2002, Sabri Oncu quoted William Safire as saying: > "If Bush follows words with deeds, he will avert that disaster. Instead > he will apply his Afghan template: Supply arms and money to 70,000 > Kurdish fighters in northern Iraq and a lesser Shiite force in the > south, covering both with Predator surveillance and tactical U.S. air > support. > > In Phase II, I'll bet it was recently agreed in Washington that Turkish > tank brigades and U.S. Special Ops troops will together thrust down to > Baghdad. Saddam will join Osama and Mullah Omar in hiding. Iraqis, > cheering their liberators, will lead the Arab world toward democracy. > > It's not a pipe dream. It's the action implicit in the Bush doctrine > enunciated this week. The gun laid on the table by this political > dramatist will go off in the next act." And then quoted the Turkish Defense Minister saying "What'n hell?" I think the key phrases in Safire's column are "I'll bet" (meaning "I have no evidence whatsoever") and "It's not a pipe dream" (emphasis on the petulant "not" as in "It's *not* a pipedream. It's *not*!) It sure looks like one. Below is the column where Safire first broached this idea about a week after the invasion of Afghanistan where it was explicitly presented as a fantasy. In the three months since he seems to have convinced himself of his dream's realiy. Now he's trying to convince others. I think the column you quote is part of an attempt to convince people the idea is not completely mad by hinting with no evidence that important players are taking it seriously. I don't know how well known Safire is in Turkey, but in the US he's famous as Sharon's best buddy, occupying the far right pew in Israel's amen corner. Consequently he never misses a chance to encourage an invasion of Iraq or a criminalization of Iran. One measure of how important the right wing Israeli agenda is to his politics is that even though he is a life-long republican -- he was Nixon's speechwriter, a duty he shared with Patrick Buchanan -- he voted for Bill Clinton in 1992 because he thought Bush Sr. had been too hard on Israel by making them go to Madrid. So I'm not saying it's impossible we might be contemplating such a plan. But I wouldn't take it seriously unless someone other than Safire starts saying it. Michael The New York Times November 5, 2001 The Turkey Card By WILLIAM SAFIRE Reached by cell phone in purgatory, where he is expiating his sin of imposing wage and price controls, Richard Nixon agreed to an interview with his former speechwriter. Q: How do you think the war in Afghanistan is going? Nixon: You call that a war? Light bombing of a bunch of crazies with beards, based on a policy of Afghanization before you even get started? That's strictly reactive and purely tactical. Q: Would you send in a couple of divisions of American ground troops? Nixon: No. The Bush people are employing the right tactics in their "phase I" - suppressing terrorist operations, helping the opposition make trouble, playing for breaks with payoffs and assassinations. What they fail to see is the global picture. They need to develop a grand strategy. Q: Which is - Nixon: Know your real enemy. It's not just bin Laden and his terrorist cells. It's the movement threatening to take over the Islamic world. Those beards and their even more dangerous state sponsors want the Saudi and Kuwaiti oil. That would give them the money to build or buy the nuclear and germ weapons to eliminate the reasonable Muslims and all the Christian and Jewish infidels. Q: How would you stop them? Nixon: Split 'em, the way we split the Communist monolith by playing the China card against the Soviets. Your generation's card is Turkey, the secular Muslim nation with the strongest army. Q: The Turks have already volunteered a hundred commandos - you mean we should ask for more? Nixon: Get out of that celebrity- terrorist Afghan mindset. With the world dazed and everything in flux, seize the moment. I'd make a deal with Ankara right now to move across Turkey's border and annex the northern third of Iraq. Most of it is in Kurdish hands already, in our no-flight zone - but the land to make part of Turkey is the oil field around Kirkuk that produces nearly half of Saddam Hussein's oil. Q: Doesn't that mean war? Nixon: Quick war, justified by Saddam's threat of germs and nukes and terrorist connections. We'd provide air cover and U.N. Security Council support in return for the Turks' setting up a friendly government in Baghdad. The freed Iraqis would start pumping their southern oil like mad and help us bust up OPEC for good. Q: What's in it for the Turks? Nixon: First, big money - northern Iraq could be good for nearly two million barrels a day, and the European Union would fall all over itself welcoming in the Turks. Next, Turkey would solve its internal Kurd problem by making its slice of Iraq an autonomous region called Kurdistan. Q: But that would mean new bo
RE: Intervention In Iraq?
Short of reading Patrick Cockburn's book on the Ba'athist regime from a few yrs. ago, for a good run-down on the Iraqi National Congress, see the Federation of American Scientists website here for a Congressional Research Service history of the INC. http://www.fas.org/irp/world/para/inc.htm The best writer on the Kurds is G. Chaliand, author of, "Revolution in the Third World, " "The Peasants of North Vietnam, " and a U.C. Press anthology on guerilla strategies. The last includes an essay of his on the Afghan mujahdeen from the NYRB around 1990 or so. Michael Pugliese P.S. The belly of the best here, INC, 209.50.252.70/index.shtml Also see the Iraqi Communist Party website and for historical narrative, "Republic of Fear, " by Samir al-Khalil aka Kanan Makiya. --- Original Message --- >From: Sabri Oncu <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >To: PEN-L <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >Date: 2/1/02 2:02:40 PM > >' Intervention In Iraq ' Claims Of New York Times > >ANKARA, Feb 1 (A.A) - National Defense Minister Sabahattin >Cakmakoglu, speaking about the allegations of New York Times >journalist William Safire that the Turkish tanks would intervene >in Iraq together with the U.S. special teams, said, ''I don't >have such an information. I also read it in the newspaper >today.'' > >When a journalist recalled that, ''according to the news reports >which appeared in the U.S. media, an agreement was reached >pertaining to intervention in Iraq during the visit of Prime >Minister Bulent Ecevit to the U.S. There are news reports that >the Turkish tanks would also enter Iraq,'' and asked if this was >right, Cakmakoglu said, ''I don't have such an information. I >also read it in the newspaper. We don't have any further >information apart from the statements of Prime Minister.'' > >When journalists said, ''it was reported that some Belgian >parliamentarians talked with terrorists in Northern Iraq. Turkey >has been launching initiatives in this respect for a long time,'' >and asked about his views, Cakmakoglu said he did not have any >information on the issue. > > >Anadolu Agency 2/1/2002 11:07:26 AM > > > >This is the relevant excerpt from Safire' s article from >yesterday: > >"If Bush follows words with deeds, he will avert that disaster. >Instead he will apply his Afghan template: Supply arms and money >to 70,000 Kurdish fighters in northern Iraq and a lesser Shiite >force in the south, covering both with Predator surveillance and >tactical U.S. air support. > >In Phase II, I'll bet it was recently agreed in Washington that >Turkish tank brigades and U.S. Special Ops troops will together >thrust down to Baghdad. Saddam will join Osama and Mullah Omar in >hiding. Iraqis, cheering their liberators, will lead the Arab >world toward democracy. > >It's not a pipe dream. It's the action implicit in the Bush >doctrine enunciated this week. The gun laid on the table by this >political dramatist will go off in the next act." > >Full at: http://www.nytimes.com/2002/01/31/opinion/31SAFI.html > >
