Re: [HACKERS] Anyone know if Alvaro is OK?
scrawf...@pinpointresearch.com (Steve Crawford) writes: Marc G. Fournier wrote: Is there a higher then normal amount of earthquakes happening recently? haiti, japan just had one for 6.9, there was apparently one in illinos a few weeks back, one on the Russia/China/N.Korean border and now Chile? Random events come in bunches - something I always stop to remind myself of whenever there is a sudden bunch of quakes, celebrity deaths, plane crashes, etc. Especially with relatively unusual events like great-quakes and plane crashes, it can be tough to see if there is any signal in the noise - a job I have to leave to experienced statisticians. I'll nit pick a little bit... Random events are often *noticed* when there is some reason to think it's an unusually large batch. Nobody really notices the carnage on the highways, because, stochastically, there are such a large number of events, both positive and negative (e.g. - millions of people making it home safely, and a tiny number that don't) that it's difficult for there to be a sufficiently large number of adverse events to notice. People are a lot more worried about terrorists than about car accidents, even though the latter are *enormously* more likely to cause one's demise, by a *huge* factor. (This mismeasurement irritates me a lot, particularly when I visit airports!) 2010 has had more news about earthquakes than other nearby years, but as you say, it is not obvious that there is any signal to be found in the noise. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_deadly_earthquakes_since_1900 is an interesting list. Very few quakes are listed for 2009; I wonder if this results from events not being reported yet? Preceding years consistently have quite a lot of deadly earthquakes, dating back for many years. From that list, Chile has been seeing pretty potent earthquakes on a regular basis since 1905. I'm mighty glad to hear that Alvaro is OK, and that things weren't too disastrously shaken up, for him. -- (format nil ~...@~s cbbrowne gmail.com) http://linuxfinances.info/info/lsf.html Sponges grow in the ocean. I wonder how much deeper the ocean would be if that didn't happen. -- Steven Wright -- Sent via pgsql-hackers mailing list (pgsql-hackers@postgresql.org) To make changes to your subscription: http://www.postgresql.org/mailpref/pgsql-hackers
Re: [HACKERS] Anyone know if Alvaro is OK?
On Mon, Mar 1, 2010 at 11:11 PM, Chris Browne cbbro...@acm.org wrote: Nobody really notices the carnage on the highways, because, stochastically, there are such a large number of events, both positive and negative (e.g. - millions of people making it home safely, and a tiny number that don't) that it's difficult for there to be a sufficiently large number of adverse events to notice. I don't think the number of positive events factors into it. It's that the law of large numbers kicks in and the rate of death is pretty much constant. Every now and then there's an atypical weekend for a given town or city and the death toll spikes and people do in fact notice. Suddenly the news is filled with stories about the carnage the prior weekend and various imagined causal factors just like when the stock market goes up or down and the news people try to explain why. People are a lot more worried about terrorists than about car accidents, even though the latter are *enormously* more likely to cause one's demise, by a *huge* factor. (This mismeasurement irritates me a lot, particularly when I visit airports!) Well there is also a difference here. Because there is an active opponent in the terrorism case the security has non-linear game-theory effects. In the car safety case you could spend 10x as much money and reduce accident death rates by 1/10th. But there's a point of diminishing returns and an optimal value somewhere. In the case of terrorism it may well be the case that if you spend any money on security you must spend a lot of money for it to reach the threshold at which terrorists redirect their attacks elsewhere. Earthquakes are of course not in that category. They just occur rarely enough and then our perception of their severity is heavily influenced by where they occur so clumpings are just inevitable. -- greg -- Sent via pgsql-hackers mailing list (pgsql-hackers@postgresql.org) To make changes to your subscription: http://www.postgresql.org/mailpref/pgsql-hackers
Re: [HACKERS] Anyone know if Alvaro is OK?
Marc G. Fournier wrote: Is there a higher then normal amount of earthquakes happening recently? haiti, japan just had one for 6.9, there was apparently one in illinos a few weeks back, one on the Russia/China/N.Korean border and now Chile? Random events come in bunches - something I always stop to remind myself of whenever there is a sudden bunch of quakes, celebrity deaths, plane crashes, etc. Especially with relatively unusual events like great-quakes and plane crashes, it can be tough to see if there is any signal in the noise - a job I have to leave to experienced statisticians. The world averages one great (8+) earthquake/year which, of course, means some years like 2008 have none but 2007 had four. 7-7.9 like Haiti or our own Loma Prieta quake are far more common averaging ~17/year. Haiti is a catastrophe not because the quake was of unusual size (it barely made it into the 7-7.9 category and released less that 1/15 the energy of the Chile quake) but because the hypocenter was both shallow and fairly close to Port-au-Prince combined with terrible construction standards and virtually non-existent emergency-response capabilities in Haiti. Some general quake stats/facts are here: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/year/eqstats.php Cheers, Steve -- Sent via pgsql-hackers mailing list (pgsql-hackers@postgresql.org) To make changes to your subscription: http://www.postgresql.org/mailpref/pgsql-hackers
Re: [HACKERS] Anyone know if Alvaro is OK?
I'm happy that you and your family are fine, Alvaro. Same from my wife, too. On Sat, 2010-02-27 at 19:45 -0800, Alvaro Herrera wrote: Hi. We're out of town right now, and it seems I can't get to my home machine (probably just a loose cable). Our building was shaken badly enough that we'll have a lot of work to do to make it usable again. Our earthquake was 8.3 or 8.8 depending on who you ask, and whatever it really was, it was strong enough to tear down a bunch of buildings. Not on my zone though, fortunately for us. I have several friends on the worst area though :-( (I have to note that buildings here are built to resist this kind of thing, so the fact that some went down means that it was really strong) Re: the more frequent earthquakes, yeah I was thinking the same today. An actual scientific study would be more useful than idle speculation though ... -- Devrim GÜNDÜZ PostgreSQL Danışmanı/Consultant, Red Hat Certified Engineer devrim~gunduz.org, devrim~PostgreSQL.org, devrim.gunduz~linux.org.tr http://www.gunduz.org Twitter: http://twitter.com/devrimgunduz signature.asc Description: This is a digitally signed message part
Re: [HACKERS] Anyone know if Alvaro is OK?
It must be that someone has dropped a small amount of cheese into a lactose-intolerant volcano god... Marc G. Fournier írta: Is there a higher then normal amount of earthquakes happening recently? haiti, japan just had one for 6.9, there was apparently one in illinos a few weeks back, one on the Russia/China/N.Korean border and now Chile? Hrmmm ... On Sat, 27 Feb 2010, Bruce Momjian wrote: Josh Berkus wrote: There was a huge earthquake in Chile this morning ... Alvaro, you OK? Yes, I talked to Alvaro via IM about 2 hours ago. He was already online. His apartment building was shaken up but undamaged and his family is fine too. -- Bruce Momjian br...@momjian.ushttp://momjian.us EnterpriseDB http://enterprisedb.com PG East: http://www.enterprisedb.com/community/nav-pg-east-2010.do -- Sent via pgsql-hackers mailing list (pgsql-hackers@postgresql.org) To make changes to your subscription: http://www.postgresql.org/mailpref/pgsql-hackers Marc G. FournierHub.Org Hosting Solutions S.A. scra...@hub.org http://www.hub.org Yahoo:yscrappySkype: hub.orgICQ:7615664MSN:scra...@hub.org -- Bible has answers for everything. Proof: But let your communication be, Yea, yea; Nay, nay: for whatsoever is more than these cometh of evil. (Matthew 5:37) - basics of digital technology. May your kingdom come - superficial description of plate tectonics -- Zoltán Böszörményi Cybertec Schönig Schönig GmbH http://www.postgresql.at/ -- Sent via pgsql-hackers mailing list (pgsql-hackers@postgresql.org) To make changes to your subscription: http://www.postgresql.org/mailpref/pgsql-hackers
Re: [HACKERS] Anyone know if Alvaro is OK?
Jaime Casanova wrote: At Saturday, 02/27/2010 on 4:21 pm Marc G. Fournier scra...@hub.org wrote: On Sat, Feb 27, 2010 at 10:45 PM, Alvaro Herrera alvhe...@alvh.no-ip.org wrote: Is there a higher then normal amount of earthquakes happening recently? Re: the more frequent earthquakes, yeah I was thinking the same today. An actual scientific study would be more useful than idle speculation though This is a technical list so i won't insist on this but those of you that wanna give a try can read Matthew 24:3, 7, 8 and Luke 21:11 I find these links useful: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqinthenews/2010/ http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqinthenews/2009/ ... I note an 8.1 in Samoa in Sep 2009 no 8.x's in 2008 an 8.5 in Sumatra Sep 12 2007 an 8.0 in Peru, Aug 2007 an 8.1 in Solomon Islands Apr 2007 an 8.1 in Kuril Islands Jan 13 2007 an 8.3 in Kuril Islands Nov 2006 an 8.7 in Sumatra, March 2005 an 8.1 in Macquarie Island Dec 2004 an 8.3 in Hokkaido Japan, Sep 2003 So yeah, if we're counting 8.8+'s this year's worse than usual; but 2005's 8.7's close. But if we're counting anything over 8.0, 2007's up there as well. -- Sent via pgsql-hackers mailing list (pgsql-hackers@postgresql.org) To make changes to your subscription: http://www.postgresql.org/mailpref/pgsql-hackers
[HACKERS] Anyone know if Alvaro is OK?
There was a huge earthquake in Chile this morning ... Alvaro, you OK? --Josh Berkus -- Sent via pgsql-hackers mailing list (pgsql-hackers@postgresql.org) To make changes to your subscription: http://www.postgresql.org/mailpref/pgsql-hackers
Re: [HACKERS] Anyone know if Alvaro is OK?
Josh Berkus wrote: There was a huge earthquake in Chile this morning ... Alvaro, you OK? Yes, I talked to Alvaro via IM about 2 hours ago. He was already online. His apartment building was shaken up but undamaged and his family is fine too. -- Bruce Momjian br...@momjian.ushttp://momjian.us EnterpriseDB http://enterprisedb.com PG East: http://www.enterprisedb.com/community/nav-pg-east-2010.do -- Sent via pgsql-hackers mailing list (pgsql-hackers@postgresql.org) To make changes to your subscription: http://www.postgresql.org/mailpref/pgsql-hackers
Re: [HACKERS] Anyone know if Alvaro is OK?
Is there a higher then normal amount of earthquakes happening recently? haiti, japan just had one for 6.9, there was apparently one in illinos a few weeks back, one on the Russia/China/N.Korean border and now Chile? Hrmmm ... On Sat, 27 Feb 2010, Bruce Momjian wrote: Josh Berkus wrote: There was a huge earthquake in Chile this morning ... Alvaro, you OK? Yes, I talked to Alvaro via IM about 2 hours ago. He was already online. His apartment building was shaken up but undamaged and his family is fine too. -- Bruce Momjian br...@momjian.ushttp://momjian.us EnterpriseDB http://enterprisedb.com PG East: http://www.enterprisedb.com/community/nav-pg-east-2010.do -- Sent via pgsql-hackers mailing list (pgsql-hackers@postgresql.org) To make changes to your subscription: http://www.postgresql.org/mailpref/pgsql-hackers Marc G. FournierHub.Org Hosting Solutions S.A. scra...@hub.org http://www.hub.org Yahoo:yscrappySkype: hub.orgICQ:7615664MSN:scra...@hub.org -- Sent via pgsql-hackers mailing list (pgsql-hackers@postgresql.org) To make changes to your subscription: http://www.postgresql.org/mailpref/pgsql-hackers
Re: [HACKERS] Anyone know if Alvaro is OK?
On Sat, Feb 27, 2010 at 7:21 PM, Marc G. Fournier scra...@hub.org wrote: Is there a higher then normal amount of earthquakes happening recently? haiti, japan just had one for 6.9, there was apparently one in illinos a few weeks back, one on the Russia/China/N.Korean border and now Chile? Hrmmm ... Should I rocket my children to a solar system with a yellow sun? ...Robert -- Sent via pgsql-hackers mailing list (pgsql-hackers@postgresql.org) To make changes to your subscription: http://www.postgresql.org/mailpref/pgsql-hackers
Re: [HACKERS] Anyone know if Alvaro is OK?
On Feb 27, 2010, at 20:33 , Robert Haas wrote: On Sat, Feb 27, 2010 at 7:21 PM, Marc G. Fournier scra...@hub.org wrote: Is there a higher then normal amount of earthquakes happening recently? haiti, japan just had one for 6.9, there was apparently one in illinos a few weeks back, one on the Russia/China/N.Korean border and now Chile? Hrmmm ... Should I rocket my children to a solar system with a yellow sun? ...Robert Isn't that Rob-el? Michael Glaesemann grzm seespotcode net -- Sent via pgsql-hackers mailing list (pgsql-hackers@postgresql.org) To make changes to your subscription: http://www.postgresql.org/mailpref/pgsql-hackers
Re: [HACKERS] Anyone know if Alvaro is OK?
Hi. We're out of town right now, and it seems I can't get to my home machine (probably just a loose cable). Our building was shaken badly enough that we'll have a lot of work to do to make it usable again. Our earthquake was 8.3 or 8.8 depending on who you ask, and whatever it really was, it was strong enough to tear down a bunch of buildings. Not on my zone though, fortunately for us. I have several friends on the worst area though :-( (I have to note that buildings here are built to resist this kind of thing, so the fact that some went down means that it was really strong) Re: the more frequent earthquakes, yeah I was thinking the same today. An actual scientific study would be more useful than idle speculation though ... At Saturday, 02/27/2010 on 4:21 pm Marc G. Fournier wrote: Is there a higher then normal amount of earthquakes happening recently? haiti, japan just had one for 6.9, there was apparently one in illinos a few weeks back, one on the Russia/China/N.Korean border and now Chile?
Re: [HACKERS] Anyone know if Alvaro is OK?
On Sat, 27 Feb 2010, Alvaro Herrera wrote: Hi. We're out of town right now, and it seems I can't get to my home machine (probably just a loose cable). Our building was shaken badly enough that we'll have a lot of work to do to make it usable again. Our earthquake was 8.3 or 8.8 depending on who you ask, and whatever it really was, it was strong enough to tear down a bunch of buildings. Not on my zone though, fortunately for us. I have several friends on the worst area though :-( Glad to hear you were in a safer zone .. something I've never had to weather so far in my life, and would rather keep it that way ;( Re: the more frequent earthquakes, yeah I was thinking the same today. An actual scientific study would be more useful than idle speculation though ... One comment that one guy at work had about this was along the lines of aftershocks, where there is a ripple effect that radiates out from a big one affecting seemingly unrelated areas ... not sure how much I subscribe to that theory, as one would think that the 'aftershocks' would be less intense then the original, and, so far, 8.3/8.8 sounds *alot* higher then anything I've heard of recently ... My thoughts and prays go out to you and your family ... Marc G. FournierHub.Org Hosting Solutions S.A. scra...@hub.org http://www.hub.org Yahoo:yscrappySkype: hub.orgICQ:7615664MSN:scra...@hub.org -- Sent via pgsql-hackers mailing list (pgsql-hackers@postgresql.org) To make changes to your subscription: http://www.postgresql.org/mailpref/pgsql-hackers
Re: [HACKERS] Anyone know if Alvaro is OK?
At Saturday, 02/27/2010 on 4:21 pm Marc G. Fournier scra...@hub.org wrote: On Sat, Feb 27, 2010 at 10:45 PM, Alvaro Herrera alvhe...@alvh.no-ip.org wrote: Is there a higher then normal amount of earthquakes happening recently? haiti, japan just had one for 6.9, there was apparently one in illinos a few weeks back, one on the Russia/China/N.Korean border and now Chile? Re: the more frequent earthquakes, yeah I was thinking the same today. An actual scientific study would be more useful than idle speculation though This is a technical list so i won't insist on this but those of you that wanna give a try can read Matthew 24:3, 7, 8 and Luke 21:11 -- Atentamente, Jaime Casanova Soporte y capacitación de PostgreSQL Asesoría y desarrollo de sistemas Guayaquil - Ecuador Cel. +59387171157 -- Sent via pgsql-hackers mailing list (pgsql-hackers@postgresql.org) To make changes to your subscription: http://www.postgresql.org/mailpref/pgsql-hackers
Re: [HACKERS] Anyone know if Alvaro is OK?
Hi Alvaro. Ooops, surprised at news now:-( I'm wishing you and your familys is no trouble. However, I look at one relief because your mail has arrived. ! - Original Message - From: Marc G. Fournier scra...@hub.org On Sat, 27 Feb 2010, Alvaro Herrera wrote: Hi. We're out of town right now, and it seems I can't get to my home machine (probably just a loose cable). Our building was shaken badly enough that we'll have a lot of work to do to make it usable again. Our earthquake was 8.3 or 8.8 depending on who you ask, and whatever it really was, it was strong enough to tear down a bunch of buildings. Not on my zone though, fortunately for us. I have several friends on the worst area though :-( Glad to hear you were in a safer zone .. something I've never had to weather so far in my life, and would rather keep it that way ;( Re: the more frequent earthquakes, yeah I was thinking the same today. An actual scientific study would be more useful than idle speculation though ... One comment that one guy at work had about this was along the lines of aftershocks, where there is a ripple effect that radiates out from a big one affecting seemingly unrelated areas ... not sure how much I subscribe to that theory, as one would think that the 'aftershocks' would be less intense then the original, and, so far, 8.3/8.8 sounds *alot* higher then anything I've heard of recently ... My thoughts and prays go out to you and your family ... Marc G. FournierHub.Org Hosting Solutions S.A. scra...@hub.org http://www.hub.org Yahoo:yscrappySkype: hub.orgICQ:7615664MSN:scra...@hub.org -- Sent via pgsql-hackers mailing list (pgsql-hackers@postgresql.org) To make changes to your subscription: http://www.postgresql.org/mailpref/pgsql-hackers -- Sent via pgsql-hackers mailing list (pgsql-hackers@postgresql.org) To make changes to your subscription: http://www.postgresql.org/mailpref/pgsql-hackers
