Re: Skills for the future
techli...@phpcoderusa.com said on Mon, 12 Dec 2022 18:44:10 -0700 >It's funny how some people talk about the no payroll tax states and >then you find out they make it up with property tax. Illinois has obscenely high property taxes, a fairly high state income tax, and very high sales taxes. IMHO it's not a good place for a big spender to live unless you make a lot of money (which is easier in Chicago than most places). But it's flat and the cities are fairly bicycle friendly, so if you want to save $20K/year of post-tax income, Illinois is a pretty darn economical place to live. The wage scale there is pretty high, and if you can get in a union, you've got it made. Of course people our age are too old to get in a union. I lived in Chicago my first 30 years, which is how I know this stuff. SteveT Steve Litt Autumn 2022 featured book: Thriving in Tough Times http://www.troubleshooters.com/bookstore/thrive.htm --- PLUG-discuss mailing list: PLUG-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org To subscribe, unsubscribe, or to change your mail settings: https://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss
Re: Skills for the future
Thank you.I realized back in 2007 there are four primary components to every computer system used since around 1970. Unix/Linux now.SQLthe C programming language.and networking. I have structured my education around those areas with success, but I didn't factor in the S1-B visa and its impact. Just bought this book and will start to read it:https://www.amazon.com/Move-Fast-Break-Things-Undermined/dp/0316275751/ref=sr_1_1?crid=37GDAKBPV5905=move+fast+and+break+things=1670895738=move+fast+%2Caps%2C187=8-1 read this years ago, curious if anyone has heard of this:https://www.amazon.com/Slack-Getting-Burnout-Busywork-Efficiency/dp/0767907698/ref=sr_1_1?crid=F7HXI1SNGKUY=slack+for+consultants=1670895790=slack+for+consultants%2Caps%2C140=8-1 if you want to know what direction we are heading start with this:https://www.amazon.com/dp/111967994X?psc=1=ppx_yo2ov_dt_b_product_details WEF states you will own nothing and be happy. Future?Electric vehicles where you will never travel outside the metropolis you live in for Green reasons.https://www.amazon.com/Human-Drift-King-Camp-Gillette/dp/1298507987/ref=sr_1_1?crid=D49SW2QISHLC=human+drift=1670895975=books=humand+drift%2Cstripbooks%2C135=1-1 The idea has been around for a long time and now Google and Facebook will build your AI systems to control and satisfy your everyearthly need."World Corporation" | | | | | | | | | | | "World Corporation" "World Corporation" | | | In case you wonder about education in the West:The Impact of Science on Society | | | | | | | | | | | The Impact of Science on Society Science and technology have had a major impact on society, and their impact is growing, By drastically changing ... | | | But getting back the previous thread, what are the plans for 2023? There is plenty of money to go around. I propose a 12 month plan with each goal in 3 months or 90 days achievability.https://www.amazon.com/Achievement-Factory-Fulfill-Dreams-Adventure/dp/1499551193/ref=sr_1_1?crid=I28DBEQRGMKO=the+achievement+factory=1670896898=the+acheivement+factory%2Caps%2C188=8-1 https://www.ed2go.com/courses/computer-science/data-science thanks, Greg On Monday, December 12, 2022 at 06:28:56 PM MST, techli...@phpcoderusa.com wrote: Very thought provoking Greg!! I think the number one position that I think is going to continue to grow and outpace all others, no matter the economy, is probably cyber security. Not sure how I went down this path, however I have watched a number of documentaries on hacking and getting a job in cyber security. I find this stuff fascinating. One video talked about the Defcon hacker convention in Las Vegas. Admission is in cash and your devices are probably going to be owned. The video said the FBI was in attendance as well. I'm sure it is like anything else, some have natural talent to become hackers. One of the videos I watched stated China has a goal of being able to go toe to toe with the USA by 2025. Scary thought. I would not like to displace anyone with a program, however that might actually cause them to learn some marketable skills. I have a lot of stories. Around the summer of 1980 I went to a warehouse to buy some stuff with my father. There were 4 people in the office. One filled out the purchase request. One pulled the product and probably updated the product ledger. And one person took my father's money and finalized the sale. Very people intensive. During that era computers were too expensive, however 5 or 6 years later the commodore and garage 8088 cpu clones became available. At that point I'm thinking I could replace several people in that warehouse with a program that I would be able to create from scratch in just a couple months. And this app would be able to give up the the minute info and do things like determine seasonality and actual demand that could be used to create safety stock. Oh and to stay on track, If I were to write that program today it would be a browser based PHP/MySQL app and might take me a little longer to create because I would include a lot of AJAX. And of course it would run on a LAMP server. Keith On 2022-12-11 16:59, greg zegan via PLUG-discuss wrote: > Hello, > I don't want to offend anyone but I would like to express some > thoughts on this subject. It seems after months of this discussion it > might be a good > idea to set aside a special email thread to discuss this material so > others aren't annoyed by the comments and opinions that are > non-technical. I actually > have enjoyed this little discussion because it proves these subjects > are important to everyone especially technically inclined individuals. > > > As for my involvement in the subject of ethics I can point to a second > year computer science course I took at SCC in the late 90's csc200. > As the semester wound down to the final weeks the teacher said he > wanted us to write a short essay on the subject
Re: Skills for the future
I did On 2022-12-12 18:50, Rob Mike via PLUG-discuss wrote: Testing, did everyone receive this message? Sent: Monday, December 12, 2022 at 6:44 PM From: "Keith Smith via PLUG-discuss" To: "Main PLUG discussion list" Cc: techli...@phpcoderusa.com Subject: Re: Skills for the future On 2022-12-12 18:25, Steve Litt via PLUG-discuss wrote: Keith Smith via PLUG-discuss said on Mon, 12 Dec 2022 17:55:05 -0700 I agree, with one addition. In the 70's and 80's my pay lagged 20% to 30% behind inflation. What might have been decent pay was mediocre... I think that's because you were a kid in the 1970's, probably with less professional jobs because of your age. I joined the USMC in 1975 and the pay was very low. With a few years and a few promotions and the pay got better. If I stayed in I would have done better. While it took the legislature to get going they did give the military a few really good pay raises. My memory is I kept up with inflation both as a corrosion engineer and as an audio technician, although of course the move to audio technician came with a serious pay cut (and a much better life and career path). One thing though: Throughout most of the 1970's I had no car, hence no gasoline and no purchasing of a car. Gas, oil, maintenance, repairs, insurance, traffic tickets, and amortized purchase price add up to a heck of a lot. If you move to a city with great public transportation like Chicago, give up your car, and use an old, beat up bicycle for shopping trips, I think you can save $20K of post-tax income yearly, and do a lot to shield yourself from the worst of inflation. I was a muscle car guy and did most of my own work Chicago has pretty high rents (and a good job market), so you might want to move to a less expensive city. In Urbana Illinois you can buy a decent house for $100-$150K, it's small and flat so you can easily ride your bicycle all over the place. You're near University of Illinois, so healthcare is plentiful. Don't pay more than $150K for a house because Illinois has obscenely high property taxes. It's funny how some people talk about the no payroll tax states and then you find out they make it up with property tax. SteveT Steve Litt Autumn 2022 featured book: Thriving in Tough Times http://www.troubleshooters.com/bookstore/thrive.htm --- PLUG-discuss mailing list: PLUG-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org To subscribe, unsubscribe, or to change your mail settings: https://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss --- PLUG-discuss mailing list: PLUG-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org To subscribe, unsubscribe, or to change your mail settings: https://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss --- PLUG-discuss mailing list: PLUG-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org To subscribe, unsubscribe, or to change your mail settings: https://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss --- PLUG-discuss mailing list: PLUG-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org To subscribe, unsubscribe, or to change your mail settings: https://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss
Re: Skills for the future
Testing, did everyone receive this message? Sent: Monday, December 12, 2022 at 6:44 PM From: "Keith Smith via PLUG-discuss" To: "Main PLUG discussion list" Cc: techli...@phpcoderusa.com Subject: Re: Skills for the future On 2022-12-12 18:25, Steve Litt via PLUG-discuss wrote: > Keith Smith via PLUG-discuss said on Mon, 12 Dec 2022 17:55:05 -0700 > >> I agree, with one addition. In the 70's and 80's my pay lagged 20% to >> 30% behind inflation. What might have been decent pay was mediocre... > > I think that's because you were a kid in the 1970's, probably with less > professional jobs because of your age. I joined the USMC in 1975 and the pay was very low. With a few years and a few promotions and the pay got better. If I stayed in I would have done better. While it took the legislature to get going they did give the military a few really good pay raises. > My memory is I kept up with > inflation both as a corrosion engineer and as an audio technician, > although of course the move to audio technician came with a serious pay > cut (and a much better life and career path). > > One thing though: Throughout most of the 1970's I had no car, hence no > gasoline and no purchasing of a car. Gas, oil, maintenance, repairs, > insurance, traffic tickets, and amortized purchase price add up to a > heck of a lot. > > If you move to a city with great public transportation like Chicago, > give up your car, and use an old, beat up bicycle for shopping trips, I > think you can save $20K of post-tax income yearly, and do a lot to > shield yourself from the worst of inflation. I was a muscle car guy and did most of my own work > > Chicago has pretty high rents (and a good job market), so you might > want to move to a less expensive city. In Urbana Illinois you can buy a > decent house for $100-$150K, it's small and flat so you can easily > ride your bicycle all over the place. You're near University of > Illinois, so healthcare is plentiful. Don't pay more than $150K for a > house because Illinois has obscenely high property taxes. > It's funny how some people talk about the no payroll tax states and then you find out they make it up with property tax. > SteveT > > Steve Litt > Autumn 2022 featured book: Thriving in Tough Times > http://www.troubleshooters.com/bookstore/thrive.htm > --- > PLUG-discuss mailing list: PLUG-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org > To subscribe, unsubscribe, or to change your mail settings: > https://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss --- PLUG-discuss mailing list: PLUG-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org To subscribe, unsubscribe, or to change your mail settings: https://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss --- PLUG-discuss mailing list: PLUG-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org To subscribe, unsubscribe, or to change your mail settings: https://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss
Re: Skills for the future
On 2022-12-12 18:25, Steve Litt via PLUG-discuss wrote: Keith Smith via PLUG-discuss said on Mon, 12 Dec 2022 17:55:05 -0700 I agree, with one addition. In the 70's and 80's my pay lagged 20% to 30% behind inflation. What might have been decent pay was mediocre... I think that's because you were a kid in the 1970's, probably with less professional jobs because of your age. I joined the USMC in 1975 and the pay was very low. With a few years and a few promotions and the pay got better. If I stayed in I would have done better. While it took the legislature to get going they did give the military a few really good pay raises. My memory is I kept up with inflation both as a corrosion engineer and as an audio technician, although of course the move to audio technician came with a serious pay cut (and a much better life and career path). One thing though: Throughout most of the 1970's I had no car, hence no gasoline and no purchasing of a car. Gas, oil, maintenance, repairs, insurance, traffic tickets, and amortized purchase price add up to a heck of a lot. If you move to a city with great public transportation like Chicago, give up your car, and use an old, beat up bicycle for shopping trips, I think you can save $20K of post-tax income yearly, and do a lot to shield yourself from the worst of inflation. I was a muscle car guy and did most of my own work Chicago has pretty high rents (and a good job market), so you might want to move to a less expensive city. In Urbana Illinois you can buy a decent house for $100-$150K, it's small and flat so you can easily ride your bicycle all over the place. You're near University of Illinois, so healthcare is plentiful. Don't pay more than $150K for a house because Illinois has obscenely high property taxes. It's funny how some people talk about the no payroll tax states and then you find out they make it up with property tax. SteveT Steve Litt Autumn 2022 featured book: Thriving in Tough Times http://www.troubleshooters.com/bookstore/thrive.htm --- PLUG-discuss mailing list: PLUG-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org To subscribe, unsubscribe, or to change your mail settings: https://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss --- PLUG-discuss mailing list: PLUG-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org To subscribe, unsubscribe, or to change your mail settings: https://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss
Re: Skills for the future
Very thought provoking Greg!! I think the number one position that I think is going to continue to grow and outpace all others, no matter the economy, is probably cyber security. Not sure how I went down this path, however I have watched a number of documentaries on hacking and getting a job in cyber security. I find this stuff fascinating. One video talked about the Defcon hacker convention in Las Vegas. Admission is in cash and your devices are probably going to be owned. The video said the FBI was in attendance as well. I'm sure it is like anything else, some have natural talent to become hackers. One of the videos I watched stated China has a goal of being able to go toe to toe with the USA by 2025. Scary thought. I would not like to displace anyone with a program, however that might actually cause them to learn some marketable skills. I have a lot of stories. Around the summer of 1980 I went to a warehouse to buy some stuff with my father. There were 4 people in the office. One filled out the purchase request. One pulled the product and probably updated the product ledger. And one person took my father's money and finalized the sale. Very people intensive. During that era computers were too expensive, however 5 or 6 years later the commodore and garage 8088 cpu clones became available. At that point I'm thinking I could replace several people in that warehouse with a program that I would be able to create from scratch in just a couple months. And this app would be able to give up the the minute info and do things like determine seasonality and actual demand that could be used to create safety stock. Oh and to stay on track, If I were to write that program today it would be a browser based PHP/MySQL app and might take me a little longer to create because I would include a lot of AJAX. And of course it would run on a LAMP server. Keith On 2022-12-11 16:59, greg zegan via PLUG-discuss wrote: Hello, I don't want to offend anyone but I would like to express some thoughts on this subject. It seems after months of this discussion it might be a good idea to set aside a special email thread to discuss this material so others aren't annoyed by the comments and opinions that are non-technical. I actually have enjoyed this little discussion because it proves these subjects are important to everyone especially technically inclined individuals. As for my involvement in the subject of ethics I can point to a second year computer science course I took at SCC in the late 90's csc200. As the semester wound down to the final weeks the teacher said he wanted us to write a short essay on the subject of how technology can impact the lives of others. He proposed the question: "If you had to write a program that would put people out of their jobs would you do so and why?" I remember he had us write out the ten commandments of computing in a program as the first programming assignment: CPSR - The Ten Commandments of Computer Ethics [1] CPSR - THE TEN COMMANDMENTS OF COMPUTER ETHICS cjohnson Written by the Computer Ethics Institute As a result I have researched and read many books on the subject so forgive me if we deviate a little. All of you mean something to me and others so lets not fight against one another. Turning to Linux again, in the next year what subject would you study so that you would have the skills to find good reliable jobs and careers to provide for yourself? Lets come up with a plan that is broken down into 3 months for each skill so that each of us has what it takes to compete for and acquire the best jobs and maybe just maybe we can turn the economic ship in the direction it need go in for all of us. thanks, Greg On Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 06:13:06 AM MST, George Toft via PLUG-discuss wrote: Part 2 on your 35% comment: with higher prices come higher wages and the gov't gets more taxes. After a few years, Congress will adjust the tax code, meanwhile the really low income folks who weren't paying much, pay quite a bit. Regards, George Toft On 12/2/2022 7:19 AM, Keith Smith via PLUG-discuss wrote: Hi Ed, On 2022-12-01 22:37, Ed via PLUG-discuss wrote: you should look up the difference between a recession and a depression. Odds are we will have a middling recession, but the real problem is and will be inflation. Inflation is a ratchet, it only goes in one direction and hits everyone and everything*. It's like a network that has more and more noise on the line. For context, consider that people experience something like a half dozen recessions in their lifetime - more or less. It's the business cycle. I'm old so I have lived through more bad economies than good economies. I think this one is going to be the worst of all. You already said it - you expect robotics to become more involved so go do that. Just remember robots are capital intensive - so go with the big. I'm specializing in browser based
Re: Skills for the future
Keith Smith via PLUG-discuss said on Mon, 12 Dec 2022 17:55:05 -0700 >I agree, with one addition. In the 70's and 80's my pay lagged 20% to >30% behind inflation. What might have been decent pay was mediocre... I think that's because you were a kid in the 1970's, probably with less professional jobs because of your age. My memory is I kept up with inflation both as a corrosion engineer and as an audio technician, although of course the move to audio technician came with a serious pay cut (and a much better life and career path). One thing though: Throughout most of the 1970's I had no car, hence no gasoline and no purchasing of a car. Gas, oil, maintenance, repairs, insurance, traffic tickets, and amortized purchase price add up to a heck of a lot. If you move to a city with great public transportation like Chicago, give up your car, and use an old, beat up bicycle for shopping trips, I think you can save $20K of post-tax income yearly, and do a lot to shield yourself from the worst of inflation. Chicago has pretty high rents (and a good job market), so you might want to move to a less expensive city. In Urbana Illinois you can buy a decent house for $100-$150K, it's small and flat so you can easily ride your bicycle all over the place. You're near University of Illinois, so healthcare is plentiful. Don't pay more than $150K for a house because Illinois has obscenely high property taxes. SteveT Steve Litt Autumn 2022 featured book: Thriving in Tough Times http://www.troubleshooters.com/bookstore/thrive.htm --- PLUG-discuss mailing list: PLUG-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org To subscribe, unsubscribe, or to change your mail settings: https://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss
Re: Skills for the future
I agree, with one addition. In the 70's and 80's my pay lagged 20% to 30% behind inflation. What might have been decent pay was mediocre... On 2022-12-11 06:12, George Toft via PLUG-discuss wrote: Part 2 on your 35% comment: with higher prices come higher wages and the gov't gets more taxes. After a few years, Congress will adjust the tax code, meanwhile the really low income folks who weren't paying much, pay quite a bit. Regards, George Toft On 12/2/2022 7:19 AM, Keith Smith via PLUG-discuss wrote: Hi Ed, On 2022-12-01 22:37, Ed via PLUG-discuss wrote: you should look up the difference between a recession and a depression. Odds are we will have a middling recession, but the real problem is and will be inflation. Inflation is a ratchet, it only goes in one direction and hits everyone and everything*. It's like a network that has more and more noise on the line. For context, consider that people experience something like a half dozen recessions in their lifetime - more or less. It's the business cycle. I'm old so I have lived through more bad economies than good economies. I think this one is going to be the worst of all. You already said it - you expect robotics to become more involved so go do that. Just remember robots are capital intensive - so go with the big. I'm specializing in browser based business web apps. I like robotics, however at this station in my life it is probably not a good fit. *except for Japan and it's lost decade(s) - they had/have deflation I think we are about to have really bad inflation for the next 10 years. Based on what I hear, the fed cannot raise interest rates high enough to kill inflation because we have over 30 trillion in national debt. It is my understanding that as they raise interest rates the cost of servicing the debt goes up. Given that we may have to just ride this out. Another thought that is floating around is the Federal Gov. likes inflation. Think about it. If we have 10% inflation for the next 10 years that means the value of national debt is reduced to 35% of what is is today. On Sat, Nov 19, 2022 at 7:13 AM Keith Smith via PLUG-discuss wrote: Hi, I am reading and watching YouTube videos that say the economy is going to tank to maybe as bad as the depression. If this is true what skills are going to be in demand. I suspect there will be a real push to automate things so I'm guessing those who can create browser based business web apps and phone apps will be in high demand. That will equate to the administrator skills to support such things. I also expect robotics to become more involved in factories, manufacturing, and even flipping burgers. What say you? Thanks!! Keith --- PLUG-discuss mailing list: PLUG-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org To subscribe, unsubscribe, or to change your mail settings: https://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss --- PLUG-discuss mailing list: PLUG-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org To subscribe, unsubscribe, or to change your mail settings: https://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss --- PLUG-discuss mailing list: PLUG-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org To subscribe, unsubscribe, or to change your mail settings: https://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss --- PLUG-discuss mailing list: PLUG-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org To subscribe, unsubscribe, or to change your mail settings: https://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss --- PLUG-discuss mailing list: PLUG-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org To subscribe, unsubscribe, or to change your mail settings: https://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss
Re: Skills for the future
Hello, I don't want to offend anyone but I would like to express some thoughts on this subject. It seems after months of this discussion it might be a good idea to set aside a special email thread to discuss this material so others aren't annoyed by the comments and opinions that are non-technical. I actuallyhave enjoyed this little discussion because it proves these subjects are important to everyone especially technically inclined individuals. As for my involvement in the subject of ethics I can point to a second year computer science course I took at SCC in the late 90's csc200. As the semester wound down to the final weeks the teacher said he wanted us to write a short essay on the subject of how technology can impact the lives of others. He proposed the question: "If you had to write a program that would put people out of their jobs would you do so and why?" I remember he had us write out the ten commandments of computing in a program as the first programming assignment:CPSR - The Ten Commandments of Computer Ethics | | | | | | | | | | | CPSR - The Ten Commandments of Computer Ethics cjohnson Written by the Computer Ethics Institute | | | As a result I have researched and read many books on the subject so forgive me if we deviate a little. All of you mean something to me and others so lets not fight against one another. Turning to Linux again, in the next year what subject would you study so that you would have the skills to find good reliable jobs and careers to providefor yourself? Lets come up with a plan that is broken down into 3 months for each skill so that each of us has what it takes to compete for and acquire the best jobs and maybe just maybe we can turn the economic ship in the direction it need go in for all of us.thanks,Greg On Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 06:13:06 AM MST, George Toft via PLUG-discuss wrote: Part 2 on your 35% comment: with higher prices come higher wages and the gov't gets more taxes. After a few years, Congress will adjust the tax code, meanwhile the really low income folks who weren't paying much, pay quite a bit. Regards, George Toft On 12/2/2022 7:19 AM, Keith Smith via PLUG-discuss wrote: > Hi Ed, > > > > On 2022-12-01 22:37, Ed via PLUG-discuss wrote: >> you should look up the difference between a recession and a >> depression. Odds are we will have a middling recession, but the real >> problem is and will be inflation. Inflation is a ratchet, it only goes >> in one direction and hits everyone and everything*. It's like a >> network that has more and more noise on the line. For context, >> consider that people experience something like a half dozen recessions >> in their lifetime - more or less. It's the business cycle. > > I'm old so I have lived through more bad economies than good economies. > > I think this one is going to be the worst of all. > > >> >> You already said it - you expect robotics to become more involved so >> go do that. Just remember robots are capital intensive - so go with >> the big. >> > > I'm specializing in browser based business web apps. I like robotics, > however at this station in my life it is probably not a good fit. > > >> *except for Japan and it's lost decade(s) - they had/have deflation > > > I think we are about to have really bad inflation for the next 10 > years. Based on what I hear, the fed cannot raise interest rates high > enough to kill inflation because we have over 30 trillion in national > debt. It is my understanding that as they raise interest rates the > cost of servicing the debt goes up. Given that we may have to just > ride this out. > > Another thought that is floating around is the Federal Gov. likes > inflation. Think about it. If we have 10% inflation for the next 10 > years that means the value of national debt is reduced to 35% of what > is is today. > > > >> >> On Sat, Nov 19, 2022 at 7:13 AM Keith Smith via PLUG-discuss >> wrote: >>> >>> >>> >>> Hi, >>> >>> I am reading and watching YouTube videos that say the economy is going >>> to tank to maybe as bad as the depression. >>> >>> If this is true what skills are going to be in demand. >>> >>> I suspect there will be a real push to automate things so I'm guessing >>> those who can create browser based business web apps and phone apps >>> will >>> be in high demand. That will equate to the administrator skills to >>> support such things. >>> >>> I also expect robotics to become more involved in factories, >>> manufacturing, and even flipping burgers. >>> >>> What say you? >>> >>> Thanks!! >>> >>> Keith >>> --- >>> PLUG-discuss mailing list: PLUG-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org >>> To subscribe, unsubscribe, or to change your mail settings: >>> https://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss >> --- >> PLUG-discuss mailing list: PLUG-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org >> To
Re: Skills for the future
Part 2 on your 35% comment: with higher prices come higher wages and the gov't gets more taxes. After a few years, Congress will adjust the tax code, meanwhile the really low income folks who weren't paying much, pay quite a bit. Regards, George Toft On 12/2/2022 7:19 AM, Keith Smith via PLUG-discuss wrote: Hi Ed, On 2022-12-01 22:37, Ed via PLUG-discuss wrote: you should look up the difference between a recession and a depression. Odds are we will have a middling recession, but the real problem is and will be inflation. Inflation is a ratchet, it only goes in one direction and hits everyone and everything*. It's like a network that has more and more noise on the line. For context, consider that people experience something like a half dozen recessions in their lifetime - more or less. It's the business cycle. I'm old so I have lived through more bad economies than good economies. I think this one is going to be the worst of all. You already said it - you expect robotics to become more involved so go do that. Just remember robots are capital intensive - so go with the big. I'm specializing in browser based business web apps. I like robotics, however at this station in my life it is probably not a good fit. *except for Japan and it's lost decade(s) - they had/have deflation I think we are about to have really bad inflation for the next 10 years. Based on what I hear, the fed cannot raise interest rates high enough to kill inflation because we have over 30 trillion in national debt. It is my understanding that as they raise interest rates the cost of servicing the debt goes up. Given that we may have to just ride this out. Another thought that is floating around is the Federal Gov. likes inflation. Think about it. If we have 10% inflation for the next 10 years that means the value of national debt is reduced to 35% of what is is today. On Sat, Nov 19, 2022 at 7:13 AM Keith Smith via PLUG-discuss wrote: Hi, I am reading and watching YouTube videos that say the economy is going to tank to maybe as bad as the depression. If this is true what skills are going to be in demand. I suspect there will be a real push to automate things so I'm guessing those who can create browser based business web apps and phone apps will be in high demand. That will equate to the administrator skills to support such things. I also expect robotics to become more involved in factories, manufacturing, and even flipping burgers. What say you? Thanks!! Keith --- PLUG-discuss mailing list: PLUG-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org To subscribe, unsubscribe, or to change your mail settings: https://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss --- PLUG-discuss mailing list: PLUG-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org To subscribe, unsubscribe, or to change your mail settings: https://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss --- PLUG-discuss mailing list: PLUG-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org To subscribe, unsubscribe, or to change your mail settings: https://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss --- PLUG-discuss mailing list: PLUG-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org To subscribe, unsubscribe, or to change your mail settings: https://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss
Re: Skills for the future
Everyone keeps bringing up the 70's. I way a young guy back then and lived though it. I can look back and see how it effected me in negative way. The difference between the 70's and how is the national debt. It is my understanding the Fed cannot raise interest rates high enough because the cost of serving the national debt will become to costly. On 2022-12-01 23:15, trent shipley via PLUG-discuss wrote: Both inflation and deflation are like positive feedback loops or resonance. A central bank can beat inflation into the ground with interest rates (even one like this, which is caused by demand pull, supply shortages, and rising profits) at the cost of a nasty recession (pretty much what the Fed did at the end of the 70's) Deflation is less common, but is really pernicious and hard to fix when it happens. And this has very little to do with Linux, FOSS, or even IT per se. For me these discussions make me think and I learn from you. I do not live in a vacuum. The economy over the next 10 years is going to change our country and how things work. Some on this list are going to lose a job and may need to retool. These are things we need to think about. As of about 3 years ago our world has begun to be reshaped. On Thu, Dec 1, 2022 at 10:38 PM Ed via PLUG-discuss wrote: you should look up the difference between a recession and a depression. Odds are we will have a middling recession, but the real problem is and will be inflation. Inflation is a ratchet, it only goes in one direction and hits everyone and everything*. It's like a network that has more and more noise on the line. For context, consider that people experience something like a half dozen recessions in their lifetime - more or less. It's the business cycle. You already said it - you expect robotics to become more involved so go do that. Just remember robots are capital intensive - so go with the big. *except for Japan and it's lost decade(s) - they had/have deflation On Sat, Nov 19, 2022 at 7:13 AM Keith Smith via PLUG-discuss wrote: Hi, I am reading and watching YouTube videos that say the economy is going to tank to maybe as bad as the depression. If this is true what skills are going to be in demand. I suspect there will be a real push to automate things so I'm guessing those who can create browser based business web apps and phone apps will be in high demand. That will equate to the administrator skills to support such things. I also expect robotics to become more involved in factories, manufacturing, and even flipping burgers. What say you? Thanks!! Keith --- PLUG-discuss mailing list: PLUG-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org To subscribe, unsubscribe, or to change your mail settings: https://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss --- PLUG-discuss mailing list: PLUG-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org To subscribe, unsubscribe, or to change your mail settings: https://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss --- PLUG-discuss mailing list: PLUG-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org To subscribe, unsubscribe, or to change your mail settings: https://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss --- PLUG-discuss mailing list: PLUG-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org To subscribe, unsubscribe, or to change your mail settings: https://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss
Re: Skills for the future
Hi Ed, On 2022-12-01 22:37, Ed via PLUG-discuss wrote: you should look up the difference between a recession and a depression. Odds are we will have a middling recession, but the real problem is and will be inflation. Inflation is a ratchet, it only goes in one direction and hits everyone and everything*. It's like a network that has more and more noise on the line. For context, consider that people experience something like a half dozen recessions in their lifetime - more or less. It's the business cycle. I'm old so I have lived through more bad economies than good economies. I think this one is going to be the worst of all. You already said it - you expect robotics to become more involved so go do that. Just remember robots are capital intensive - so go with the big. I'm specializing in browser based business web apps. I like robotics, however at this station in my life it is probably not a good fit. *except for Japan and it's lost decade(s) - they had/have deflation I think we are about to have really bad inflation for the next 10 years. Based on what I hear, the fed cannot raise interest rates high enough to kill inflation because we have over 30 trillion in national debt. It is my understanding that as they raise interest rates the cost of servicing the debt goes up. Given that we may have to just ride this out. Another thought that is floating around is the Federal Gov. likes inflation. Think about it. If we have 10% inflation for the next 10 years that means the value of national debt is reduced to 35% of what is is today. On Sat, Nov 19, 2022 at 7:13 AM Keith Smith via PLUG-discuss wrote: Hi, I am reading and watching YouTube videos that say the economy is going to tank to maybe as bad as the depression. If this is true what skills are going to be in demand. I suspect there will be a real push to automate things so I'm guessing those who can create browser based business web apps and phone apps will be in high demand. That will equate to the administrator skills to support such things. I also expect robotics to become more involved in factories, manufacturing, and even flipping burgers. What say you? Thanks!! Keith --- PLUG-discuss mailing list: PLUG-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org To subscribe, unsubscribe, or to change your mail settings: https://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss --- PLUG-discuss mailing list: PLUG-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org To subscribe, unsubscribe, or to change your mail settings: https://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss --- PLUG-discuss mailing list: PLUG-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org To subscribe, unsubscribe, or to change your mail settings: https://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss
Re: Skills for the future
Both inflation and deflation are like positive feedback loops or resonance. A central bank can beat inflation into the ground with interest rates (even one like this, which is caused by demand pull, supply shortages, and rising profits) at the cost of a nasty recession (pretty much what the Fed did at the end of the 70's) Deflation is less common, but is really pernicious and hard to fix when it happens. And this has very little to do with Linux, FOSS, or even IT per se. On Thu, Dec 1, 2022 at 10:38 PM Ed via PLUG-discuss < plug-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org> wrote: > you should look up the difference between a recession and a > depression. Odds are we will have a middling recession, but the real > problem is and will be inflation. Inflation is a ratchet, it only goes > in one direction and hits everyone and everything*. It's like a > network that has more and more noise on the line. For context, > consider that people experience something like a half dozen recessions > in their lifetime - more or less. It's the business cycle. > > You already said it - you expect robotics to become more involved so > go do that. Just remember robots are capital intensive - so go with > the big. > > *except for Japan and it's lost decade(s) - they had/have deflation > > On Sat, Nov 19, 2022 at 7:13 AM Keith Smith via PLUG-discuss > wrote: > > > > > > > > Hi, > > > > I am reading and watching YouTube videos that say the economy is going > > to tank to maybe as bad as the depression. > > > > If this is true what skills are going to be in demand. > > > > I suspect there will be a real push to automate things so I'm guessing > > those who can create browser based business web apps and phone apps will > > be in high demand. That will equate to the administrator skills to > > support such things. > > > > I also expect robotics to become more involved in factories, > > manufacturing, and even flipping burgers. > > > > What say you? > > > > Thanks!! > > > > Keith > > --- > > PLUG-discuss mailing list: PLUG-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org > > To subscribe, unsubscribe, or to change your mail settings: > > https://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss > --- > PLUG-discuss mailing list: PLUG-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org > To subscribe, unsubscribe, or to change your mail settings: > https://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss > --- PLUG-discuss mailing list: PLUG-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org To subscribe, unsubscribe, or to change your mail settings: https://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss
Re: Skills for the future
you should look up the difference between a recession and a depression. Odds are we will have a middling recession, but the real problem is and will be inflation. Inflation is a ratchet, it only goes in one direction and hits everyone and everything*. It's like a network that has more and more noise on the line. For context, consider that people experience something like a half dozen recessions in their lifetime - more or less. It's the business cycle. You already said it - you expect robotics to become more involved so go do that. Just remember robots are capital intensive - so go with the big. *except for Japan and it's lost decade(s) - they had/have deflation On Sat, Nov 19, 2022 at 7:13 AM Keith Smith via PLUG-discuss wrote: > > > > Hi, > > I am reading and watching YouTube videos that say the economy is going > to tank to maybe as bad as the depression. > > If this is true what skills are going to be in demand. > > I suspect there will be a real push to automate things so I'm guessing > those who can create browser based business web apps and phone apps will > be in high demand. That will equate to the administrator skills to > support such things. > > I also expect robotics to become more involved in factories, > manufacturing, and even flipping burgers. > > What say you? > > Thanks!! > > Keith > --- > PLUG-discuss mailing list: PLUG-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org > To subscribe, unsubscribe, or to change your mail settings: > https://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss --- PLUG-discuss mailing list: PLUG-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org To subscribe, unsubscribe, or to change your mail settings: https://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss
Re: Skills for the future
H, Well, considering that the fed has many of the same types of people in charge as they did in the 1970’a and the 1930’s, the result is going to be the same. They may call it something different, but at the end of the day, it’s still government control of a fiscal system that should have very little control. Most of these systems are self regulating if you leave them alone (and if they don’t get skewed by influence from multinational organizations bent on some control of the markets). Cloud is definitely one area to look at. Another is cyber security (there is a chasm between what we have and what we need), also robotics (specifically programming and maintenance). Also, no matter what, there will always be a need for the Infrastructure technologist with endorsements in security and database management. So, several fields of good possibilities. However, we need some way of powering it all that doesn’t depend on inefficient renewables (and wind/solar are just that, inefficient). I point those out as I happen to have some experience in those areas (in so far as research goes). Also done a lot of prepper work trying to keep my footprint on the grid as low as possible Now, unless they completely redesign the solar panel, about 30% is all you are going to get for energy conversion efficiency. Wind isn’t any better for several reasons, including available area to place it and exotic materials involved that are hard to recycle and still require carbon in the mix. There is no way to avoid that last, so I wish the climate idiots would go peddle their wares elsewhere (like china). Anyway, enough of my rant. -Eric From the Central Offices of the Technomage Guild, Research Operations Dept. > On Nov 30, 2022, at 7:37 PM, George Toft via PLUG-discuss > wrote: > > I'm inclined to disagree with the nay-sayers. > > Been watching a youtube channel called "Mark Moss" who does a pretty good > analysis of trends, and I just saw a Bloomberg Markets and Finances video > where the Federal Reserve's Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stated the > Fed will do whatever it takes to control inflation. Sounds like they're > going to do something different than the 1930's (we saw how well that > worked), and something different, maybe, than the late 1970's/early 1980's. > It's my sense that they will ratchet up the interest rates in 0.50-0.75% > increments. Personally, I don't know that they can do anything different > than the 80's with prime at almost 20%. > > Worse than the Depression? I doubt it. As bad at 2009? Probably worse. > > Low interest rates drive businesses to delay hardware investments. High > interest rates drive purchases as the same equipment will cost 15-20% more > next year. Deflation stifles hardware investment as it will be 10% cheaper > next year, so why buy now? (That last sentence is a one-line summary of > former Fed Chairman Bernanke's essay on the failures of the Federal Reserve > in the 1930's, and why inflation is intentionally driven to run at 2%.) No > matter what happens, layoff's are coming. > > So what's an info worker to do? > > Be the best in your field. The marginal folks will get laid off and do > something different, which clears the field for the rest of us. What > technology to focus on? Cloud. There simply aren't enough Cloud-certified > architects/engineers and all these companies are rushing headlong into the > cloud. Terraform is probably the best platform to learn for cloud > deployments as it's universal for AWS, GCP, Azure. Then there's Ansible. > > Personally, I think competing against someone from India with a Bachelor's > Degree (or Master's) who will come here and work for $45K is ludicrous (my > son just got an entry level customer service job for $21/hr, which is > $42K/year). Look for something they don't do well - orchestration, solution > engineering, problem solving. > > Don't be a 50 year old coder - it's a dead end. > > Regards, > > George Toft > > On 11/19/2022 7:12 AM, Keith Smith via PLUG-discuss wrote: >> >> >> Hi, >> >> I am reading and watching YouTube videos that say the economy is going to >> tank to maybe as bad as the depression. >> >> If this is true what skills are going to be in demand. >> >> I suspect there will be a real push to automate things so I'm guessing those >> who can create browser based business web apps and phone apps will be in >> high demand. That will equate to the administrator skills to support such >> things. >> >> I also expect robotics to become more involved in factories, manufacturing, >> and even flipping burgers. >> >> What say you? >> >> Thanks!! >> >> Keith >> --- >> PLUG-discuss mailing list: PLUG-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org >> To subscribe, unsubscribe, or to change your mail settings: >> https://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss >
Re: Skills for the future
I'm inclined to disagree with the nay-sayers. Been watching a youtube channel called "Mark Moss" who does a pretty good analysis of trends, and I just saw a Bloomberg Markets and Finances video where the Federal Reserve's Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stated the Fed will do whatever it takes to control inflation. Sounds like they're going to do something different than the 1930's (we saw how well that worked), and something different, maybe, than the late 1970's/early 1980's. It's my sense that they will ratchet up the interest rates in 0.50-0.75% increments. Personally, I don't know that they can do anything different than the 80's with prime at almost 20%. Worse than the Depression? I doubt it. As bad at 2009? Probably worse. Low interest rates drive businesses to delay hardware investments. High interest rates drive purchases as the same equipment will cost 15-20% more next year. Deflation stifles hardware investment as it will be 10% cheaper next year, so why buy now? (That last sentence is a one-line summary of former Fed Chairman Bernanke's essay on the failures of the Federal Reserve in the 1930's, and why inflation is intentionally driven to run at 2%.) No matter what happens, layoff's are coming. So what's an info worker to do? Be the best in your field. The marginal folks will get laid off and do something different, which clears the field for the rest of us. What technology to focus on? Cloud. There simply aren't enough Cloud-certified architects/engineers and all these companies are rushing headlong into the cloud. Terraform is probably the best platform to learn for cloud deployments as it's universal for AWS, GCP, Azure. Then there's Ansible. Personally, I think competing against someone from India with a Bachelor's Degree (or Master's) who will come here and work for $45K is ludicrous (my son just got an entry level customer service job for $21/hr, which is $42K/year). Look for something they don't do well - orchestration, solution engineering, problem solving. Don't be a 50 year old coder - it's a dead end. Regards, George Toft On 11/19/2022 7:12 AM, Keith Smith via PLUG-discuss wrote: Hi, I am reading and watching YouTube videos that say the economy is going to tank to maybe as bad as the depression. If this is true what skills are going to be in demand. I suspect there will be a real push to automate things so I'm guessing those who can create browser based business web apps and phone apps will be in high demand. That will equate to the administrator skills to support such things. I also expect robotics to become more involved in factories, manufacturing, and even flipping burgers. What say you? Thanks!! Keith --- PLUG-discuss mailing list: PLUG-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org To subscribe, unsubscribe, or to change your mail settings: https://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss --- PLUG-discuss mailing list: PLUG-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org To subscribe, unsubscribe, or to change your mail settings: https://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss
Skills for the future
Hi, I am reading and watching YouTube videos that say the economy is going to tank to maybe as bad as the depression. If this is true what skills are going to be in demand. I suspect there will be a real push to automate things so I'm guessing those who can create browser based business web apps and phone apps will be in high demand. That will equate to the administrator skills to support such things. I also expect robotics to become more involved in factories, manufacturing, and even flipping burgers. What say you? Thanks!! Keith --- PLUG-discuss mailing list: PLUG-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org To subscribe, unsubscribe, or to change your mail settings: https://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss
