Re: Re: Re: [singularity] Ten years to the Singularity ??
Ben, If I am beating a dead horse, please feel free to ignore this, but I'm imagining a prototype that shows glimmerings of AGI. Such a system, though not useful or commercially viable, would sometimes act in interesting, even creepy, ways. It might be inconsistent and buggy, and work in a limited domain. This sets a low barrier, since existing systems occasionally meet this description. The key difference is that the hypothesized prototype would have an AGI engine under it and would rapidly improve. Joshua According the approach I have charted out (the only one I understand), the true path to AGI does not really involve commercially valuable intermediate stages. This is for reasons similar to the reasons that babies are not very economically useful. .But my best guess is that this is an illusion. IMO by far the best path to a true AGI is by building an artificial baby and educating it and incrementally improving it, and by its very nature this path does not lead to incremental commercially viable results. - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?list_id=11983
Re: Re: Re: [singularity] Ten years to the Singularity ??
Yes, this is one of the things we are working towards with Novamente. Unfortunately, meeting this low barrier based on a genuine AGI architecture is a lot more work than doing so in a more bogus way based on an architecture without growth potential... ben On 12/20/06, Joshua Fox [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Ben, If I am beating a dead horse, please feel free to ignore this, but I'm imagining a prototype that shows glimmerings of AGI. Such a system, though not useful or commercially viable, would sometimes act in interesting, even creepy, ways. It might be inconsistent and buggy, and work in a limited domain. This sets a low barrier, since existing systems occasionally meet this description. The key difference is that the hypothesized prototype would have an AGI engine under it and would rapidly improve. Joshua According the approach I have charted out (the only one I understand), the true path to AGI does not really involve commercially valuable intermediate stages. This is for reasons similar to the reasons that babies are not very economically useful. .But my best guess is that this is an illusion. IMO by far the best path to a true AGI is by building an artificial baby and educating it and incrementally improving it, and by its very nature this path does not lead to incremental commercially viable results. This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?list_id=11983 - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?list_id=11983
Re: [singularity] Ten years to the Singularity ??
I'm also surprised there aren't more programmers or AGI enthusiasts who aren't willing to work for beans to further this goal. We're just two students in Arizona, but we'd both gladly give up our current lives to work for 15-20G's a year and pull 80 hour weeks eating this stuff up. Having a family is valid excuse, but there are others out there who aren't tied down. We may not have PhD's, but we learn quickly. I know a lot of people in this position (myself included)... although I think the problem is that creating AGI requires you to have a lot of background knowledge and experience to be able design and solve problems on that level (way more than I have probably). -hank On 12/12/06, Josh Treadwell [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: What kind of numbers are we talking here to fund a single AGI project like Novamente? If I could, I'd instantly dedicate all my time and resources to developing AI, but because most of my knowledge is auto didactic, I don't get considered for any jobs. So for now, I'm stuck in the drudgery of working 60 hours a week doing IT, while struggling to complete and pay for college. As soon as I get out of school I'll have to start paying off student loans, which won't be feasable in an AGI position (due to lack of adequate funding). Thus, a friend of mine and I have decided to take the lower road and start building lame websites (myspace profile template pages, ggle.com like pages, other lame ad-words pages) in order to (a) quit our jobs, and (b) fund our own or others research. It boggles my mind that no one has become financially successful and decided to throw a significant sum of money at Novamente and the like. For the love of Pete, sacrificing a single Budweiser Superbowl commercial could fund years of AGI research. I'm also surprised there aren't more programmers or AGI enthusiasts who aren't willing to work for beans to further this goal. We're just two students in Arizona, but we'd both gladly give up our current lives to work for 15-20G's a year and pull 80 hour weeks eating this stuff up. Having a family is valid excuse, but there are others out there who aren't tied down. We may not have PhD's, but we learn quickly. BTW Ben, for the love of God, can you please tell me when your AGI book is coming out? It's been in my Amazon shopping cart for 6 months now! How about I just pay you via paypal, and you send me a PDF? *Josh Treadwell** [EMAIL PROTECTED] * -- This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?list_id=11983 -- This message has been scanned for viruses and dangerous content by *MailScanner* http://www.mailscanner.info/, and is believed to be clean. - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?list_id=11983
Re: Re: [singularity] Ten years to the Singularity ??
Well, the requirements to **design** an AGI on the high level are much steeper than the requirements to contribute (as part of a team) to the **implementation** (and working out of design details) of AGI. I dare say that anyone with a good knowledge of C++, Linux, and undergraduate computer science -- and who has done a decent amount of reading in cognitive science -- has the background to contribute to an AGI project such as Novamente. Perhaps the Novamente project is now at the stage where it could benefit from 3-4 junior AI software developers. But even if so, the problem still exists of finding say $100K to pay these folks for a year. Still, this is not so much funding to find, and it's an interesting possible direction to take. So far I have been skeptical of the ability of more junior folks to really contribute, but I think the project may be at a level of maturity now where this may be sensible... Something for me to think about during the holidays... -- Ben On 12/15/06, Hank Conn [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: I'm also surprised there aren't more programmers or AGI enthusiasts who aren't willing to work for beans to further this goal. We're just two students in Arizona, but we'd both gladly give up our current lives to work for 15-20G's a year and pull 80 hour weeks eating this stuff up. Having a family is valid excuse, but there are others out there who aren't tied down. We may not have PhD's, but we learn quickly. I know a lot of people in this position (myself included)... although I think the problem is that creating AGI requires you to have a lot of background knowledge and experience to be able design and solve problems on that level (way more than I have probably). -hank On 12/12/06, Josh Treadwell [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: What kind of numbers are we talking here to fund a single AGI project like Novamente? If I could, I'd instantly dedicate all my time and resources to developing AI, but because most of my knowledge is auto didactic, I don't get considered for any jobs. So for now, I'm stuck in the drudgery of working 60 hours a week doing IT, while struggling to complete and pay for college. As soon as I get out of school I'll have to start paying off student loans, which won't be feasable in an AGI position (due to lack of adequate funding). Thus, a friend of mine and I have decided to take the lower road and start building lame websites (myspace profile template pages, ggle.com like pages, other lame ad-words pages) in order to (a) quit our jobs, and (b) fund our own or others research. It boggles my mind that no one has become financially successful and decided to throw a significant sum of money at Novamente and the like. For the love of Pete, sacrificing a single Budweiser Superbowl commercial could fund years of AGI research. I'm also surprised there aren't more programmers or AGI enthusiasts who aren't willing to work for beans to further this goal. We're just two students in Arizona, but we'd both gladly give up our current lives to work for 15-20G's a year and pull 80 hour weeks eating this stuff up. Having a family is valid excuse, but there are others out there who aren't tied down. We may not have PhD's, but we learn quickly. BTW Ben, for the love of God, can you please tell me when your AGI book is coming out? It's been in my Amazon shopping cart for 6 months now! How about I just pay you via paypal, and you send me a PDF? Josh Treadwell [EMAIL PROTECTED] This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?list_id=11983 -- This message has been scanned for viruses and dangerous content by MailScanner, and is believed to be clean. This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?list_id=11983 - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?list_id=11983
Re: Re: [singularity] Ten years to the Singularity ??
Ben, The question which I would ask, were I a potential funder How soon can I see something that, though not true AGI, makes me say 'Wow, I've never seen anything like that before.' ? I appreciate that this is an incredibly challenging project, and that in some cases investors will accept a ten-year horizon, but as a software professional I'd say that a working intermediate system, showing real core functionality, is critical to keeping a project focused and on track. You mention intermediate steps to AI, but the question is whether these are narrow-AI applications (the bane of AGI projects) or some sort of (incomplete) AGI. Yours, Joshua 2006/12/11, Ben Goertzel [EMAIL PROTECTED]: Hi Joshua, Thanks for the comments Indeed, the creation of a thinking machine is not a typical VC type project. I know a few VC's personally and am well aware of their way of thinking and the way thir businesses operate. There is a lot of technology risk in the creation of an AGI, as compared to the sorts of projects that VC's are typical interested in funding today. There is just no getting around this fact. From a typical VC perspective, building a thinking machine is a project with too much risk and too much schedule uncertainty in spite of the obviously huge payoff upon success. Of course, it's always possible a rule-breaking VC could come along with an interest in AGI. VC's have funded nanotech projects with a 10+ year timescale to product, for example. Currently our fundraising focus is on: a) transhumanist angel investors interested in funding the creation of true AGI b) seeking VC money with a view toward funding the rapid construction and monetization of software products that are -- based on components of our AGI codebase -- incremental steps toward AGI. With regard to b, we are currently working with a business consultant to formulate a professional investor toolkit to present to interested VC's. Unfortunately, US government grant funding for out-of-the-mainstream AGI projects is very hard to come by these days. OTOH, the Chinese government has expressed some interest in Novamente, but that funding source has some serious issues involved with it, needless to say... -- Ben G On 12/11/06, Joshua Fox [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Ben, I saw the video. It's wonderful to see this direct aim at the goal of the positive Singularity. If I could comment from the perspective of the software industry, though without expertise in the problem space, I'd say that there are some phrases in there which would make me, were I a VC, suspicious. (Of course VC's aren't the direct audience, but ultimately someone has to provide the funding you allude to.) When a visionary says that he requires more funding and ten years, this often indicates an unfocused project that will never get on-track. In software projects it is essential to aim for real results, including a beta within a year and multiple added-value-providing versions within approximately 3 years. I think that this is not just investor impatience -- experience shows that software projects planned for a much longer schedule tend to get off-focus. I know that you already realize this, and that you do have the focus; you mention your plans, which I assume include meaningful intermediate achievements in this incredibly challenging and extraordinary task, but this the impression which comes across in the talk. Yours, Joshua 2006/12/11, Ben Goertzel [EMAIL PROTECTED]: Hi, For anyone who is curious about the talk Ten Years to the Singularity (if we Really Really Try) that I gave at Transvision 2006 last summer, I have finally gotten around to putting the text of the speech online: http://www.goertzel.org/papers/tenyears.htm The video presentation has been online for a while video.google.com/videoplay?docid=1615014803486086198 (alas, the talking is a bit slow in that one, but that's because the audience was in Finland and mostly spoke English as a second language.) But the text may be preferable to those who, like me, hate watching long videos of people blabbering ;-) Questions, comments, arguments and insults (preferably clever ones) welcome... -- Ben - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?list_id=11983 This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?list_id=11983 - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?list_id=11983 - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?list_id=11983
Re: Re: Re: [singularity] Ten years to the Singularity ??
Hi, You mention intermediate steps to AI, but the question is whether these are narrow-AI applications (the bane of AGI projects) or some sort of (incomplete) AGI. According the approach I have charted out (the only one I understand), the true path to AGI does not really involve commercially valuable intermediate stages. This is for reasons similar to the reasons that babies are not very economically useful. So, yeah, the only way I see to use commercial AI to fund AGI is to build narrow-AI projects and sell them, and do a combination of a) using the profits to fund AGI b) using common software components btw the narrow-AI and AGI systems, so the narrow-AI work can help the AGI directly to some extent Of course, if you believe (as e.g. the Google founders do) that Web search can be a path to AGI, then you have an easier time of it, because there is commercial work that appears to be on the direct path to true AGI. But my best guess is that this is an illusion. IMO by far the best path to a true AGI is by building an artificial baby and educating it and incrementally improving it, and by its very nature this path does not lead to incremental commercially viable results. -- Ben G - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?list_id=11983
Re: [singularity] Ten years to the Singularity ??
What kind of numbers are we talking here to fund a single AGI project like Novamente? If I could, I'd instantly dedicate all my time and resources to developing AI, but because most of my knowledge is auto didactic, I don't get considered for any jobs. So for now, I'm stuck in the drudgery of working 60 hours a week doing IT, while struggling to complete and pay for college. As soon as I get out of school I'll have to start paying off student loans, which won't be feasable in an AGI position (due to lack of adequate funding). Thus, a friend of mine and I have decided to take the lower road and start building lame websites (myspace profile template pages, ggle.com like pages, other lame ad-words pages) in order to (a) quit our jobs, and (b) fund our own or others research. It boggles my mind that no one has become financially successful and decided to throw a significant sum of money at Novamente and the like. For the love of Pete, sacrificing a single Budweiser Superbowl commercial could fund years of AGI research. I'm also surprised there aren't more programmers or AGI enthusiasts who aren't willing to work for beans to further this goal. We're just two students in Arizona, but we'd both gladly give up our current lives to work for 15-20G's a year and pull 80 hour weeks eating this stuff up. Having a family is valid excuse, but there are others out there who aren't tied down. We may not have PhD's, but we learn quickly. BTW Ben, for the love of God, can you please tell me when your AGI book is coming out? It's been in my Amazon shopping cart for 6 months now! How about I just pay you via paypal, and you send me a PDF? Josh Treadwell [EMAIL PROTECTED] This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/emailTo unsubscribe or change your options, please go to:http://v2.listbox.com/member/?list_id=11983 -- This message has been scanned for viruses and dangerous content by MailScanner, and is believed to be clean. begin:vcard fn:Josh Treadwell n:Treadwell;Josh org:C.R.I.S. Camera Services;Administration adr:;;250 North 54th Street;Chandler;AZ;85226;USA email;internet:[EMAIL PROTECTED] title:Systems Administrator tel;work:480-940-1103 tel;fax:480-940-1329 tel;home:480-460-1999 tel;cell:480-206-3776 x-mozilla-html:TRUE url:http://www.criscam.com version:2.1 end:vcard
Re: Re: [singularity] Ten years to the Singularity ??
BTW Ben, for the love of God, can you please tell me when your AGI book is coming out? It's been in my Amazon shopping cart for 6 months now! The publisher finally mailed me a copy of the book last week! Ben - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?list_id=11983
Re: Re: [singularity] Ten years to the Singularity ??
Hi Joshua, Thanks for the comments Indeed, the creation of a thinking machine is not a typical VC type project. I know a few VC's personally and am well aware of their way of thinking and the way thir businesses operate. There is a lot of technology risk in the creation of an AGI, as compared to the sorts of projects that VC's are typical interested in funding today. There is just no getting around this fact. From a typical VC perspective, building a thinking machine is a project with too much risk and too much schedule uncertainty in spite of the obviously huge payoff upon success. Of course, it's always possible a rule-breaking VC could come along with an interest in AGI. VC's have funded nanotech projects with a 10+ year timescale to product, for example. Currently our fundraising focus is on: a) transhumanist angel investors interested in funding the creation of true AGI b) seeking VC money with a view toward funding the rapid construction and monetization of software products that are -- based on components of our AGI codebase -- incremental steps toward AGI. With regard to b, we are currently working with a business consultant to formulate a professional investor toolkit to present to interested VC's. Unfortunately, US government grant funding for out-of-the-mainstream AGI projects is very hard to come by these days. OTOH, the Chinese government has expressed some interest in Novamente, but that funding source has some serious issues involved with it, needless to say... -- Ben G On 12/11/06, Joshua Fox [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Ben, I saw the video. It's wonderful to see this direct aim at the goal of the positive Singularity. If I could comment from the perspective of the software industry, though without expertise in the problem space, I'd say that there are some phrases in there which would make me, were I a VC, suspicious. (Of course VC's aren't the direct audience, but ultimately someone has to provide the funding you allude to.) When a visionary says that he requires more funding and ten years, this often indicates an unfocused project that will never get on-track. In software projects it is essential to aim for real results, including a beta within a year and multiple added-value-providing versions within approximately 3 years. I think that this is not just investor impatience -- experience shows that software projects planned for a much longer schedule tend to get off-focus. I know that you already realize this, and that you do have the focus; you mention your plans, which I assume include meaningful intermediate achievements in this incredibly challenging and extraordinary task, but this the impression which comes across in the talk. Yours, Joshua 2006/12/11, Ben Goertzel [EMAIL PROTECTED]: Hi, For anyone who is curious about the talk Ten Years to the Singularity (if we Really Really Try) that I gave at Transvision 2006 last summer, I have finally gotten around to putting the text of the speech online: http://www.goertzel.org/papers/tenyears.htm The video presentation has been online for a while video.google.com/videoplay?docid=1615014803486086198 (alas, the talking is a bit slow in that one, but that's because the audience was in Finland and mostly spoke English as a second language.) But the text may be preferable to those who, like me, hate watching long videos of people blabbering ;-) Questions, comments, arguments and insults (preferably clever ones) welcome... -- Ben - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?list_id=11983 This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?list_id=11983 - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?list_id=11983
Re: Re: [singularity] Ten years to the Singularity ??
Ben, My A.I. group of friends (was: CommonSense Computing Group, and is now more scattered) has been trying to do an open-source development for a set of programs that are working toward human-scale intelligence. For example, Hugo Liu's commonsense reasoning toolkit, ConceptNet, was ported from Python to many other more efficient versions by the internet community at large (and used in many other research projects in our lab and around the world). Have you thought about releasing your A.G.I. codebase that you mentioned to the general public so that it can be developed by everyone? I, for one, would be interested in downloading it and trying it out. I realize that research software is often not documented or easily digestable, but it seems like one of the most efficient ways to attack the software development problem. Bo On Mon, 11 Dec 2006, Ben Goertzel wrote: ) Hi Joshua, ) ) Thanks for the comments ) ) Indeed, the creation of a thinking machine is not a typical VC type ) project. I know a few VC's personally and am well aware of their way ) of thinking and the way thir businesses operate. There is a lot of ) technology risk in the creation of an AGI, as compared to the sorts ) of projects that VC's are typical interested in funding today. There ) is just no getting around this fact. From a typical VC perspective, ) building a thinking machine is a project with too much risk and too ) much schedule uncertainty in spite of the obviously huge payoff upon ) success. ) ) Of course, it's always possible a rule-breaking VC could come along ) with an interest in AGI. VC's have funded nanotech projects with a ) 10+ year timescale to product, for example. ) ) Currently our fundraising focus is on: ) ) a) transhumanist angel investors interested in funding the creation of true ) AGI ) ) b) seeking VC money with a view toward funding the rapid construction ) and monetization of software products that are ) -- based on components of our AGI codebase ) -- incremental steps toward AGI. ) ) With regard to b, we are currently working with a business consultant ) to formulate a professional investor toolkit to present to ) interested VC's. ) ) Unfortunately, US government grant funding for out-of-the-mainstream ) AGI projects is very hard to come by these days. OTOH, the Chinese ) government has expressed some interest in Novamente, but that funding ) source has some serious issues involved with it, needless to say... ) ) -- Ben G ) ) ) On 12/11/06, Joshua Fox [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: ) ) Ben, ) ) I saw the video. It's wonderful to see this direct aim at the goal of the ) positive Singularity. ) ) If I could comment from the perspective of the software industry, though ) without expertise in the problem space, I'd say that there are some phrases ) in there which would make me, were I a VC, suspicious. (Of course VC's ) aren't the direct audience, but ultimately someone has to provide the ) funding you allude to.) ) ) When a visionary says that he requires more funding and ten years, this ) often indicates an unfocused project that will never get on-track. In ) software projects it is essential to aim for real results, including a beta ) within a year and multiple added-value-providing versions within ) approximately 3 years. I think that this is not just investor impatience -- ) experience shows that software projects planned for a much longer schedule ) tend to get off-focus. ) ) I know that you already realize this, and that you do have the focus; you ) mention your plans, which I assume include meaningful intermediate ) achievements in this incredibly challenging and extraordinary task, but this ) the impression which comes across in the talk. ) ) Yours, ) ) Joshua ) ) ) ) 2006/12/11, Ben Goertzel [EMAIL PROTECTED]: ) ) Hi, ) ) For anyone who is curious about the talk Ten Years to the Singularity ) (if we Really Really Try) that I gave at Transvision 2006 last ) summer, I have finally gotten around to putting the text of the speech ) online: ) ) http://www.goertzel.org/papers/tenyears.htm ) ) The video presentation has been online for a while ) ) video.google.com/videoplay?docid=1615014803486086198 ) ) (alas, the talking is a bit slow in that one, but that's because the ) audience was in Finland and mostly spoke English as a second ) language.) But the text may be preferable to those who, like me, hate ) watching long videos of people blabbering ;-) ) ) Questions, comments, arguments and insults (preferably clever ones) ) welcome... ) ) -- Ben ) ) - ) This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email ) To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: ) http://v2.listbox.com/member/?list_id=11983 ) ) ) ) This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email ) To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: )
Re: Re: Re: [singularity] Ten years to the Singularity ??
My main reason for resisting the urge to open-source Novamente is AGI safety concerns. At the moment Novamente is no danger to anyone, but once it gets more advanced, I worry about irresponsible people forking the codebase privately and creating an AGI customized for malicious purposes... This is an issue I'm still thinking over, but anyway, that is my main reason for not having gone the open-source route up to this point... -- Ben On 12/11/06, Bo Morgan [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Ben, My A.I. group of friends (was: CommonSense Computing Group, and is now more scattered) has been trying to do an open-source development for a set of programs that are working toward human-scale intelligence. For example, Hugo Liu's commonsense reasoning toolkit, ConceptNet, was ported from Python to many other more efficient versions by the internet community at large (and used in many other research projects in our lab and around the world). Have you thought about releasing your A.G.I. codebase that you mentioned to the general public so that it can be developed by everyone? I, for one, would be interested in downloading it and trying it out. I realize that research software is often not documented or easily digestable, but it seems like one of the most efficient ways to attack the software development problem. Bo On Mon, 11 Dec 2006, Ben Goertzel wrote: ) Hi Joshua, ) ) Thanks for the comments ) ) Indeed, the creation of a thinking machine is not a typical VC type ) project. I know a few VC's personally and am well aware of their way ) of thinking and the way thir businesses operate. There is a lot of ) technology risk in the creation of an AGI, as compared to the sorts ) of projects that VC's are typical interested in funding today. There ) is just no getting around this fact. From a typical VC perspective, ) building a thinking machine is a project with too much risk and too ) much schedule uncertainty in spite of the obviously huge payoff upon ) success. ) ) Of course, it's always possible a rule-breaking VC could come along ) with an interest in AGI. VC's have funded nanotech projects with a ) 10+ year timescale to product, for example. ) ) Currently our fundraising focus is on: ) ) a) transhumanist angel investors interested in funding the creation of true ) AGI ) ) b) seeking VC money with a view toward funding the rapid construction ) and monetization of software products that are ) -- based on components of our AGI codebase ) -- incremental steps toward AGI. ) ) With regard to b, we are currently working with a business consultant ) to formulate a professional investor toolkit to present to ) interested VC's. ) ) Unfortunately, US government grant funding for out-of-the-mainstream ) AGI projects is very hard to come by these days. OTOH, the Chinese ) government has expressed some interest in Novamente, but that funding ) source has some serious issues involved with it, needless to say... ) ) -- Ben G ) ) ) On 12/11/06, Joshua Fox [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: ) ) Ben, ) ) I saw the video. It's wonderful to see this direct aim at the goal of the ) positive Singularity. ) ) If I could comment from the perspective of the software industry, though ) without expertise in the problem space, I'd say that there are some phrases ) in there which would make me, were I a VC, suspicious. (Of course VC's ) aren't the direct audience, but ultimately someone has to provide the ) funding you allude to.) ) ) When a visionary says that he requires more funding and ten years, this ) often indicates an unfocused project that will never get on-track. In ) software projects it is essential to aim for real results, including a beta ) within a year and multiple added-value-providing versions within ) approximately 3 years. I think that this is not just investor impatience -- ) experience shows that software projects planned for a much longer schedule ) tend to get off-focus. ) ) I know that you already realize this, and that you do have the focus; you ) mention your plans, which I assume include meaningful intermediate ) achievements in this incredibly challenging and extraordinary task, but this ) the impression which comes across in the talk. ) ) Yours, ) ) Joshua ) ) ) ) 2006/12/11, Ben Goertzel [EMAIL PROTECTED]: ) ) Hi, ) ) For anyone who is curious about the talk Ten Years to the Singularity ) (if we Really Really Try) that I gave at Transvision 2006 last ) summer, I have finally gotten around to putting the text of the speech ) online: ) ) http://www.goertzel.org/papers/tenyears.htm ) ) The video presentation has been online for a while ) ) video.google.com/videoplay?docid=1615014803486086198 ) ) (alas, the talking is a bit slow in that one, but that's because the ) audience was in Finland and mostly spoke English as a second ) language.) But the text may be preferable to those who, like me, hate ) watching long videos of people blabbering ;-)
Re: [singularity] Ten years to the Singularity ??
Regarding de Garis' graph of the number of people who've died in different wars throughout history, are the numbers raw or divided by the population size? -Chuck On 12/11/06, Ben Goertzel [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Hi, For anyone who is curious about the talk Ten Years to the Singularity (if we Really Really Try) that I gave at Transvision 2006 last summer, I have finally gotten around to putting the text of the speech online: http://www.goertzel.org/papers/tenyears.htm The video presentation has been online for a while video.google.com/videoplay?docid=1615014803486086198 (alas, the talking is a bit slow in that one, but that's because the audience was in Finland and mostly spoke English as a second language.) But the text may be preferable to those who, like me, hate watching long videos of people blabbering ;-) Questions, comments, arguments and insults (preferably clever ones) welcome... -- Ben - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?list_id=11983 - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?list_id=11983
Re: Re: [singularity] Ten years to the Singularity ??
The exponential growth pattern holds regardless of whether you normalize by global population size or not... -- Ben On 12/11/06, Chuck Esterbrook [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Regarding de Garis' graph of the number of people who've died in different wars throughout history, are the numbers raw or divided by the population size? -Chuck On 12/11/06, Ben Goertzel [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Hi, For anyone who is curious about the talk Ten Years to the Singularity (if we Really Really Try) that I gave at Transvision 2006 last summer, I have finally gotten around to putting the text of the speech online: http://www.goertzel.org/papers/tenyears.htm The video presentation has been online for a while video.google.com/videoplay?docid=1615014803486086198 (alas, the talking is a bit slow in that one, but that's because the audience was in Finland and mostly spoke English as a second language.) But the text may be preferable to those who, like me, hate watching long videos of people blabbering ;-) Questions, comments, arguments and insults (preferably clever ones) welcome... -- Ben - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?list_id=11983 - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?list_id=11983 - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?list_id=11983
Re: Re: [singularity] Ten years to the Singularity ??
Darn. On 12/11/06, Ben Goertzel [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: The exponential growth pattern holds regardless of whether you normalize by global population size or not... -- Ben On 12/11/06, Chuck Esterbrook [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Regarding de Garis' graph of the number of people who've died in different wars throughout history, are the numbers raw or divided by the population size? -Chuck On 12/11/06, Ben Goertzel [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Hi, For anyone who is curious about the talk Ten Years to the Singularity (if we Really Really Try) that I gave at Transvision 2006 last summer, I have finally gotten around to putting the text of the speech online: http://www.goertzel.org/papers/tenyears.htm The video presentation has been online for a while video.google.com/videoplay?docid=1615014803486086198 (alas, the talking is a bit slow in that one, but that's because the audience was in Finland and mostly spoke English as a second language.) But the text may be preferable to those who, like me, hate watching long videos of people blabbering ;-) Questions, comments, arguments and insults (preferably clever ones) welcome... -- Ben - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?list_id=11983 - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?list_id=11983 - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?list_id=11983 - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?list_id=11983
