ENERGIES... week of December 23, 2001
2001 REVIEW / 2002 OUTLOOK. Last year at this time I said that the
word energy is likely to appear in headline news frequently in 2001. It
did.
Early in the year in response to the energy crisis in California,
newly sworn in President George Bush started a commission under Vice
President Dick Cheney to develop an energy plan for the U.S. The crisis
disappeared but versions of the plan linger in and around the halls of
Congress.
Bush also backed away from a campaign pledge to regulate carbon
dioxide gases (no surprise here from a man with close ties to the fossil
fuel energy industry) and backed away altogether from the Kyoto Protocol
(no surprise here either for the same reason).
Then September 11 rolled around and the U.S. was stabbed in its
heart, but not fatally. One of the complaints from perpetrator Osama bin
Laden was the continuing presence of U.S. forces in Saudi Arabia. Forces
are in the region to keep Saddam Hussein in check and to keep the oil
flowing.
Then what should have been a major news item, but got lost in news
of the war in Afghanistan, was that the rest of the world would go ahead
with the Kyoto Protocol - without the U.S. - in an attempt to reign in
greenhouse gases. The Marrakech Accords - a sort of rule book for Kyoto
compliance - were signed in Morocco in November.
Finally energy trading giant Enron collapsed into bankruptcy. Wind
energy division Enron Wind is okay for now.
Despite a rocky year, clean, efficient and renewable energy did
well. Throughout the year there were almost weekly reports of new wind
farm developments worldwide - offshore wind in particular. There were
many smiling faces at the American Wind Energy Association conference
this year.
Solar power grew in popularity with a number of new projects and
initiatives by governments and businesses, particularly in California.
One solar company, PowerLight, now says it is working around the clock
to meet demand.
The two hybrid cars available in the U.S. are selling well, enough
so that Toyota is increasing its allotment of Prius cars to this country
by 40 percent.
News of hydrogen fuel cell development and commercialization,
another area of intense interest, slowed a bit from the previous year,
but the technology improved significantly. Of note was the recent
announcement of a vehicle multi-fuel fuel processor from Nuvera that
needs only ten seconds to get up and running.
But what about 2002?
If recession persists development of renewables or green
technologies could slow.
On the other hand, if U.S. politicians, particularly those in
Congress, can be convinced that green energy would be good for the
economy in terms of new jobs or national security, then the sector could
have a resounding year.
And if consumers nesting in their homes feel the need for more
personal security they may continue to seek their own sources of energy.
Solar could win here.
Finally, many energy related companies with long term business
plans, and/or those wanting to participate in world markets, realize
that there are opportunities for business and profits everywhere in the
green energy sector. Perhaps President Bush can be convinced that
cutting toxic emissions and greenhouse gases is the morally correct
thing to do. A nod from the White House would be good for this business.
But then, U.S. companies don't need Washington's blessing to pursue
business opportunities. Kyoto is already creating opportunities
globally. Many U.S companies are engaged and ready to take part in this
new world-wide endeavor..
Have the Best New Year,
Bruce Mulliken
DEVELOPING GREEN. Who knows? In ten, twenty or thirty years those
nations now considered Developing Nations may become Developed Nations.
And if those Developed Nations develop clean and green, they may become
more appealing places to live, work and play than dirty old
Industrialized Nations. Clean air and water may be more attractive than
traffic clogged roads and smog belching from tailpipes and smokestacks.
Overall, the standard of living of the newly Developed Nations, when the
environment is included, may be higher than that of Industrialized ones.
(Industrialized Nations should beware. There could be a brain and
business drain to these newly Developed Nations.)
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has begun a project
to pinpoint the best sites for solar and wind energy in 13 nations
considered Developing. This first phase of the Solar and Wind Energy
Survey Assessment (SWERA) will examine Kenya, Ethiopia, Ghana,
Bangladesh, Brazil, China, Cuba, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras,
Nepal, Nicaragua and Sri Lanka.
When the project is complete, investors considering building wind
and solar power plants in these nations will be able to use SWERA to
determine the best, and most lucrative locations. SWERA will be linked
to a Geographical Information System and
