Re: [Biofuel] Meet the Economist Who Thinks We're Doomed

[Keith Addison]

Hi Doug

>Keith, there's a myth floating around among the rich and would-be rich,
>that some very smart people saw the Great Depression coming, and made
>fortunes out of it. It's a myth that just happens to be true.

Yes, that's certainly true.

>These greedheads may serve a useful purpose. If the financial people
>and the comfortably-off foot soldiers of the right wing start thinking
>that the system is rotten, that they've been swindled by their leaders,
>then "the ruling circles of Wall Street" and the politicians may think
>it's worthwhile to do something about it, especially if the market
>anticipates the crash to such an extent that it's impossible for the
>smart guys to make a killing on it.

I think they'll already have made their killing by then.

What Jim Rogers says at the end, for instance:

>(Q): Is there a specific signal that this is "over?"
>
>Rogers: SureŠwhen our entire U.S. cabinet has Swiss bank accounts. 
>Linked inside bank accounts.  When that happens, we'll know we're
>getting close because they'll do it even after it's illegal - after
>America's put in the exchange controls.
>
>(Q): They'll move their own money.
>
>Rogers: Yeah, because you look at people like the Israelis and the
>Argentineans and people who have had exchange controls - the
>politicians usually figured it out and have taken care of themselves
>on the side.
>
>(Q): We saw that in South Africa and other countries, for example, as
>people tried to get their money out.
>
>Rogers: Everybody figures it out, eventually, including the
>politicians.  They say: "You know, others can't do this, but it's
>alright for us." Those days will come.  I guess when all the
>congressmen have foreign bank accounts, we'll be at the bottom.
>
>But we've got a long way to go, yet.

I saw that happening in South Africa in 1976: a huge mount of money 
left the country the night before new exchange control regs were 
announced.

Anyway it's rather clear by now that speculators profit from disaster 
(or even cause it), but beyond that, as Naomi Klein says, that's how 
business operates anyway: disasters are an opportunity.

>The wonders of free enterprise...

Indeed.

Best

Keith


>Doug Woodard
>St. Catharines, Ontario, Canada
>
>
>
>Keith Addison wrote:
>>  Don't you just love the editor's note? - K
>>
>>  -
>>
>>  http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article20558.htm
>>
>>  Exclusive Interview:
>>
>>  Jim Rogers Predicts Bigger Financial Shocks Loom
>>
>>  Fueling a Malaise That May Last for Years
>>
>>  By Keith Fitz-Gerald
>>
>>  Investment Director
>>
>>  19/08/08 " Money Morning/The Money Map Report"
>>  http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/08/19/jim-rogers/
>>
>>  [Editor's note:  After interviewing legendary investor Jim Rogers at
>>  his home in Singapore back in March, Investment Director Keith
>>  Fitz-Gerald caught up with Rogers again in July - this time in
>>  Vancouver, where both were speaking at the Agora Wealth Symposium.
>>  Rogers talked extensively about the ill-advised bailouts of Bear
>>  Stearns, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the potentially ruinous
>>  fallout from the financial "Super Crash" that's about to engulf the
>>  U.S. market. To find out how to get a report on the
>>  once-in-a-lifetime profit plays that will emanate from this so-called
>>  "SuperCrash" - and to also get a free copy of noted market analyst
>>  Peter D. Schiff's New York Times bestseller "Crash Proof: How to
>>  Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse" - please click here. And
>>  look for Part 2 of Money Morning's latest interview with Jim Rogers
>>  tomorrow (Wednesday).]
>
>[snip]


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Re: [Biofuel] Meet the Economist Who Thinks We're Doomed

[Douglas Woodard]

Keith, there's a myth floating around among the rich and would-be rich, 
that some very smart people saw the Great Depression coming, and made 
fortunes out of it. It's a myth that just happens to be true.

These greedheads may serve a useful purpose. If the financial people
and the comfortably-off foot soldiers of the right wing start thinking 
that the system is rotten, that they've been swindled by their leaders, 
then "the ruling circles of Wall Street" and the politicians may think 
it's worthwhile to do something about it, especially if the market 
anticipates the crash to such an extent that it's impossible for the 
smart guys to make a killing on it.

The wonders of free enterprise...

Doug Woodard
St. Catharines, Ontario, Canada



Keith Addison wrote:
> Don't you just love the editor's note? - K
> 
> -
> 
> http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article20558.htm
> 
> Exclusive Interview:
> 
> Jim Rogers Predicts Bigger Financial Shocks Loom
> 
> Fueling a Malaise That May Last for Years
> 
> By Keith Fitz-Gerald
> 
> Investment Director
> 
> 19/08/08 " Money Morning/The Money Map Report"
> http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/08/19/jim-rogers/
> 
> [Editor's note:  After interviewing legendary investor Jim Rogers at 
> his home in Singapore back in March, Investment Director Keith 
> Fitz-Gerald caught up with Rogers again in July - this time in 
> Vancouver, where both were speaking at the Agora Wealth Symposium. 
> Rogers talked extensively about the ill-advised bailouts of Bear 
> Stearns, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the potentially ruinous 
> fallout from the financial "Super Crash" that's about to engulf the 
> U.S. market. To find out how to get a report on the 
> once-in-a-lifetime profit plays that will emanate from this so-called 
> "SuperCrash" - and to also get a free copy of noted market analyst 
> Peter D. Schiff's New York Times bestseller "Crash Proof: How to 
> Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse" - please click here. And 
> look for Part 2 of Money Morning's latest interview with Jim Rogers 
> tomorrow (Wednesday).]

[snip]

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Re: [Biofuel] Meet the Economist Who Thinks We're Doomed

[Keith Addison]

Don't you just love the editor's note? - K

-

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article20558.htm

Exclusive Interview:

Jim Rogers Predicts Bigger Financial Shocks Loom

Fueling a Malaise That May Last for Years

By Keith Fitz-Gerald

Investment Director

19/08/08 " Money Morning/The Money Map Report"
http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/08/19/jim-rogers/

[Editor's note:  After interviewing legendary investor Jim Rogers at 
his home in Singapore back in March, Investment Director Keith 
Fitz-Gerald caught up with Rogers again in July - this time in 
Vancouver, where both were speaking at the Agora Wealth Symposium. 
Rogers talked extensively about the ill-advised bailouts of Bear 
Stearns, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the potentially ruinous 
fallout from the financial "Super Crash" that's about to engulf the 
U.S. market. To find out how to get a report on the 
once-in-a-lifetime profit plays that will emanate from this so-called 
"SuperCrash" - and to also get a free copy of noted market analyst 
Peter D. Schiff's New York Times bestseller "Crash Proof: How to 
Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse" - please click here. And 
look for Part 2 of Money Morning's latest interview with Jim Rogers 
tomorrow (Wednesday).]

VANCOUVER, B.C. - The U.S. financial crisis has cut so deep - and the 
government has taken on so much debt in misguided attempts to bail 
out such companies as Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) - that 
even larger financial shocks are still to come, global investing guru 
Jim Rogers said in an exclusive interview with Money Morning.

Indeed, the U.S. financial debacle is now so ingrained - and a 
so-called "Super Crash" so likely - that most Americans alive today 
won't be around by the time the last of this credit-market mess is 
finally cleared away - if it ever is, Rogers said.

The end of this crisis "is a long way away," Rogers said. "In fact, 
it may not be in our lifetimes."

During a 40-minute interview during a wealth-management conference in 
this West Coast Canadian city last month, Rogers also said that:

*   U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke should 
"resign" for the bailout deals he's handed out as he's tried to 
battle this credit crisis.

*   That the U.S. national debt - the roughly $5 trillion 
held by the public- essentially doubled in the course of a single 
weekend because of the Fed-led credit crisis bailout deals.

*   That U.S. consumers and investors can expect 
much-higher interest rates - noting that if the Fed doesn't raise 
borrowing costs, market forces will make that happen.

*   And that the average American has no idea just how 
bad this financial crisis is going to get.

"The next shock is going to be bigger and bigger, still," Rogers 
said. "The shocks keep getting bigger because we keep propping things 
up Š [and] bailing everyone out."

Rogers first made a name for himself with The Quantum Fund, a hedge 
fund that's often described as the first real global investment fund, 
which he and partner George Soros founded in 1970. Over the next 
decade, Quantum gained 4,200%, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index 
climbed about 50%.

It was after Rogers "retired" in 1980 that the investing masses got 
to see him in action. Rogers traveled the world (several times), and 
penned such bestsellers as "Investment Biker" and the recently 
released "A Bull in China." And he made some historic market calls: 
Rogers predicted China's meteoric growth a good decade before it 
became apparent and he subsequently foretold of the powerful updraft 
in global commodities prices that's fueled a year-long bull market in 
the agriculture, energy and mining sectors.

Rogers' candor has made him a popular figure with individual 
investors, meaning his pronouncements are always closely watched. 
Here are some of the highlights from the exclusive interview we had 
with the author and investor, who now makes his home in Singapore:

Keith Fitz-Gerald (Q): Looks like the financial train wreck we talked 
about earlier this year is happening.

Jim Rogers:  There was a train wreck, yes.  Two or three - more than 
one, as you know.  [U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S.] Bernanke 
and his boys both came to the rescue.  Which is going to cover things 
up for a while.  And then I don't know how long the rally will last 
and then we'll be off to the races again.  Whether the rally lasts 
six days or six weeks, I don't know.  I wish I did know that sort of 
thing, but I never do.

(Q):What would Chairman Bernanke have to do to "get it right?" 

Rogers: Resign.

(Q): Is there anything else that you think he could do that would be 
correct other than let these things fail?

Rogers: Well, at this stage, it doesn't seem like he can do it.  He 
could raise interest rates - which he should do, anyway. Somebody 
should.  The market's going to do it whether he does it or not, 
eventually.

The problem is that he's got all tha

Re: [Biofuel] Meet the Economist Who Thinks We're Doomed

[Keith Addison]

Hello Tony

>Hello Keith - Thanks for the article, but Mr. Roubini is not the 
>only one warning of imminent dangers in the US economy.

Indeed not, I've been hearing dire warnings for years, steadily 
gathering weight, but this one seemed quite succinct.

>One (David Walker formally from GAO) was even part of the US 
>government - See link below.
>
>http://www.pgpf.org/

Thankyou.

Paul Craig Roberts is another, formerly an Assistant Secretary of the 
Treasury in the Reagan Administration, aka the "Father of 
Reaganomics". Eg:
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article18787.htm
Impending Destruction of the US Economy

:-(

Other trouble is that when the US farts the rest of us get ulcers.

More Roubini:
http://jp.youtube.com/watch?v=51SxmcaKJIw

Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini

More Roberts:


Best

Keith


>Tony Marzolino
>Berkshire NY
>
>--- On Mon, 8/18/08, Keith Addison <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>From: Keith Addison <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>Subject: [Biofuel] Meet the Economist Who Thinks We're Doomed
>To: biofuel@sustainablelists.org
>Date: Monday, August 18, 2008, 1:08 PM
>
>Meet the Economist Who Thinks We're Doomed
>
>By Stephen Mihm, The New York Times
>
>Posted on August 18, 2008, Printed on August 18, 2008
>
>http://www.alternet.org/story/95375/
>
>On Sept. 7, 2006, Nouriel Roubini, an economics professor at New York
>University, stood before an audience of economists at the
>International Monetary Fund and announced that a crisis was brewing.
>In the coming months and years, he warned, the United States was
>likely to face a once-in-a-lifetime housing bust, an oil shock,
>sharply declining consumer confidence and, ultimately, a deep
>recession. He laid out a bleak sequence of events: homeowners
>defaulting on mortgages, trillions of dollars of mortgage-backed
>securities unraveling worldwide and the global financial system
>shuddering to a halt. These developments, he went on, could cripple
>or destroy hedge funds, investment banks and other major financial
>institutions like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
>
>The audience seemed skeptical, even dismissive. As Roubini stepped
>down from the lectern after his talk, the moderator of the event
>quipped, "I think perhaps we will need a stiff drink after that."
>People laughed -- and not without reason. At the time, unemployment
>and inflation remained low, and the economy, while weak, was still
>growing, despite rising oil prices and a softening housing market.
>And then there was the espouser of doom himself: Roubini was known to
>be a perpetual pessimist, what economists call a "permabear." When
>the economist Anirvan Banerji delivered his response to Roubini's
>talk, he noted that Roubini's predictions did not make use of
>mathematical models and dismissed his hunches as those of a career
>naysayer.
>
>But Roubini was soon vindicated. In the year that followed, subprime
>lenders began entering bankruptcy, hedge funds began going under and
>the stock market plunged. There was declining employment, a
>deteriorating dollar, ever-increasing evidence of a huge housing bust
>and a growing air of panic in financial markets as the credit crisis
>deepened. By late summer, the Federal Reserve was rushing to the
>rescue, making the first of many unorthodox interventions in the
>economy, including cutting the lending rate by 50 basis points and
>buying up tens of billions of dollars in mortgage-backed securities.
>When Roubini returned to the I.M.F. last September, he delivered a
>second talk, predicting a growing crisis of solvency that would
>infect every sector of the financial system. This time, no one
>laughed. "He sounded like a madman in 2006," recalls the I.M.F.
>economist Prakash Loungani, who invited Roubini on both occasions.
>"He was a prophet when he returned in 2007."
>
>Over the past year, whenever optimists have declared the worst of the
>economic crisis behind us, Roubini has countered with steadfast
>pessimism. In February, when the conventional wisdom held that the
>venerable investment firms of Wall Street would weather the crisis,
>Roubini warned that one or more of them would go "belly up" -- and
>six weeks later, Bear Stearns collapsed. Following the Fed's further
>extraordinary actions in the spring -- including making lines of
>credit available to selected investment banks and brokerage houses --
>many economists made note of the ensuing economic rally and
>proclaimed the credit crisis over and a recession averted. Roubini,
>who dismissed the rally as nothing more than a "delusional
>complacency" encouraged by a "bunch of self-serving
>spinmasters,"
>stuck to his script of "nightmare" events: waves of corporate
>bankrupticies, collapses in markets like commercial real estate and
>municipal bonds and, most alarming, the possible bankruptcy of a
>large regional or national bank t

Re: [Biofuel] Meet the Economist Who Thinks We're Doomed

[Tony Marzolino]

Hello Keith - Thanks for the article, but Mr. Roubini is not the only one 
warning of imminent dangers in the US economy.  One (David Walker formally from 
GAO) was even part of the US government - See link below.
 
http://www.pgpf.org/
 
Tony Marzolino
Berkshire NY

--- On Mon, 8/18/08, Keith Addison <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

From: Keith Addison <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Subject: [Biofuel] Meet the Economist Who Thinks We're Doomed
To: biofuel@sustainablelists.org
Date: Monday, August 18, 2008, 1:08 PM

Meet the Economist Who Thinks We're Doomed

By Stephen Mihm, The New York Times

Posted on August 18, 2008, Printed on August 18, 2008

http://www.alternet.org/story/95375/

On Sept. 7, 2006, Nouriel Roubini, an economics professor at New York 
University, stood before an audience of economists at the 
International Monetary Fund and announced that a crisis was brewing. 
In the coming months and years, he warned, the United States was 
likely to face a once-in-a-lifetime housing bust, an oil shock, 
sharply declining consumer confidence and, ultimately, a deep 
recession. He laid out a bleak sequence of events: homeowners 
defaulting on mortgages, trillions of dollars of mortgage-backed 
securities unraveling worldwide and the global financial system 
shuddering to a halt. These developments, he went on, could cripple 
or destroy hedge funds, investment banks and other major financial 
institutions like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

The audience seemed skeptical, even dismissive. As Roubini stepped 
down from the lectern after his talk, the moderator of the event 
quipped, "I think perhaps we will need a stiff drink after that." 
People laughed -- and not without reason. At the time, unemployment 
and inflation remained low, and the economy, while weak, was still 
growing, despite rising oil prices and a softening housing market. 
And then there was the espouser of doom himself: Roubini was known to 
be a perpetual pessimist, what economists call a "permabear." When 
the economist Anirvan Banerji delivered his response to Roubini's 
talk, he noted that Roubini's predictions did not make use of 
mathematical models and dismissed his hunches as those of a career 
naysayer.

But Roubini was soon vindicated. In the year that followed, subprime 
lenders began entering bankruptcy, hedge funds began going under and 
the stock market plunged. There was declining employment, a 
deteriorating dollar, ever-increasing evidence of a huge housing bust 
and a growing air of panic in financial markets as the credit crisis 
deepened. By late summer, the Federal Reserve was rushing to the 
rescue, making the first of many unorthodox interventions in the 
economy, including cutting the lending rate by 50 basis points and 
buying up tens of billions of dollars in mortgage-backed securities. 
When Roubini returned to the I.M.F. last September, he delivered a 
second talk, predicting a growing crisis of solvency that would 
infect every sector of the financial system. This time, no one 
laughed. "He sounded like a madman in 2006," recalls the I.M.F. 
economist Prakash Loungani, who invited Roubini on both occasions. 
"He was a prophet when he returned in 2007."

Over the past year, whenever optimists have declared the worst of the 
economic crisis behind us, Roubini has countered with steadfast 
pessimism. In February, when the conventional wisdom held that the 
venerable investment firms of Wall Street would weather the crisis, 
Roubini warned that one or more of them would go "belly up" -- and 
six weeks later, Bear Stearns collapsed. Following the Fed's further 
extraordinary actions in the spring -- including making lines of 
credit available to selected investment banks and brokerage houses -- 
many economists made note of the ensuing economic rally and 
proclaimed the credit crisis over and a recession averted. Roubini, 
who dismissed the rally as nothing more than a "delusional 
complacency" encouraged by a "bunch of self-serving
spinmasters," 
stuck to his script of "nightmare" events: waves of corporate 
bankrupticies, collapses in markets like commercial real estate and 
municipal bonds and, most alarming, the possible bankruptcy of a 
large regional or national bank that would trigger a panic by 
depositors. Not all of these developments have come to pass (and 
perhaps never will), but the demise last month of the California bank 
IndyMac -- one of the largest such failures in U.S. history -- drew 
only more attention to Roubini's seeming prescience.

As a result, Roubini, a respected but formerly obscure academic, has 
become a major figure in the public debate about the economy: the 
seer who saw it coming. He has been summoned to speak before 
Congress, the Council on Foreign Relations and the World Economic 
Forum at Davos. He is now a sought-after adviser, spending much of 
his time shuttling between meetings with central bank governors and 
finance ministers in Europe and Asia. Though he continues to issue 
colorful

Re: [Biofuel] Meet the Economist Who Thinks We're Doomed

[Kirk McLoren]

I am amazed it has lasted as long as it has. How many of us would be in crises 
after a year of unemployment? The US, due to "free trade" has moved its 
manufacturing elsewhere - lock stock and barrel. Manufacturing is our "job" - 
our income. We4 keep spending yet have nothing to exchange. Small wonder the 
dollar is becoming toilet paper.
   
  Kirk

Keith Addison <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
  Meet the Economist Who Thinks We're Doomed

By Stephen Mihm, The New York Times

Posted on August 18, 2008, Printed on August 18, 2008

http://www.alternet.org/story/95375/

On Sept. 7, 2006, Nouriel Roubini, an economics professor at New York 
University, stood before an audience of economists at the 
International Monetary Fund and announced that a crisis was brewing. 
In the coming months and years, he warned, the United States was 
likely to face a once-in-a-lifetime housing bust, an oil shock, 
sharply declining consumer confidence and, ultimately, a deep 
recession. He laid out a bleak sequence of events: homeowners 
defaulting on mortgages, trillions of dollars of mortgage-backed 
securities unraveling worldwide and the global financial system 
shuddering to a halt. These developments, he went on, could cripple 
or destroy hedge funds, investment banks and other major financial 
institutions like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
-- next part --
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