Re: [SWR] [NMCAVER] Fw: Breaking News - NM's El Malpais
They have been looking at old photos and now think it was in Europe at least since the mid 90's http://caves.org/WNS/journal.pone.0013853.pdf Lots more info at the NSS WNS website http://caves.org/WNS/ Jennifer List-Post: texascavers@texascavers.com Date: Thu, 9 Dec 2010 16:41:19 -0600 From: mikef...@att.net To: s...@caver.net Subject: Re: [SWR] [NMCAVER] Fw: Breaking News - NM's El Malpais Where have I been? I didn't know this WNS started across the Atlantic until now. Actually I did a Google search and it seems to be primarily speculation: Often 90 percent of the bats are killed-off after the first appearance of the fungus. And Kunz says that may have been what happened to bats in Europe because we don't find as many bats in European caves as there have been in North American caves: KUNZ: Now it's very possible that in historic times there were large numbers of hibernating bats in Europe, and ... these were the survivors that may be resistant to the fungus. So the arrival of the fungus may mean U.S. bat species will permanently drop in numbers, like the bats in Europe. It makes some sense, but I wouldn't call it particularly solid evidence. Give the slow progression of the disease across this country - 4 years to get from NY to OK - I would suspect bat-to-bat transmission. Mike On Thu, 9 Dec 2010, dgda...@nyx.net wrote: Stephen Fleming wrote: a) No demonstrated human vector; pure, unsubstantiated speculation in every announcement to date as to a human component. True, and there is also a plausible counter-vector in every case. I formerly supposed that the original WNS focus at Howe Caverns, NY must have been from human transmission, because bats don't fly across the Atlantic (an assumption repeated in the WNS article in the Dec. National Geographic). But someone at the last Fort Stanton expedition (perhaps you, Stephen?) mentioned to me that bats have been known to cross the oceans on ships. Peter Youngbaer later confirmed to me that there are multiple documented cases of this, and pointed out that Howe Caverns is relatively close to a port used by seagoing ships. Ship traffic is a very common vector for invasive organisms in general. In view of that, it seems at least equally likely (if not more so) that a stowaway bat flying to Howe Caverns was the initial vector, rather than visitors' shoes or gear. Such a bat would be likely to have made much closer contact with resident bats than would humans who might have been bearing G. d. spores. --Donald ___ SWR mailing list s...@caver.net http://caver.net/mailman/listinfo/swr_caver.net ___ SWR mailing list s...@caver.net http://caver.net/mailman/listinfo/swr_caver.net
Re: [SWR] [NMCAVER] Fw: Breaking News - NM's El Malpais
Thank you. Good information to have. Mike On Fri, 10 Dec 2010, bigredfo...@hotmail.com wrote: They have been looking at old photos and now think it was in Europe at least since the mid 90's http://caves.org/WNS/journal.pone.0013853.pdf Lots more info at the NSS WNS website http://caves.org/WNS/ Jennifer ___ SWR mailing list s...@caver.net http://caver.net/mailman/listinfo/swr_caver.net
Re: [SWR] [NMCAVER] Fw: Breaking News - NM's El Malpais
Where have I been? I didn't know this WNS started across the Atlantic until now. Actually I did a Google search and it seems to be primarily speculation: Often 90 percent of the bats are killed-off after the first appearance of the fungus. And Kunz says that may have been what happened to bats in Europe because we don't find as many bats in European caves as there have been in North American caves: KUNZ: Now it's very possible that in historic times there were large numbers of hibernating bats in Europe, and ... these were the survivors that may be resistant to the fungus. So the arrival of the fungus may mean U.S. bat species will permanently drop in numbers, like the bats in Europe. It makes some sense, but I wouldn't call it particularly solid evidence. Give the slow progression of the disease across this country - 4 years to get from NY to OK - I would suspect bat-to-bat transmission. Mike On Thu, 9 Dec 2010, dgda...@nyx.net wrote: Stephen Fleming wrote: a) No demonstrated human vector; pure, unsubstantiated speculation in every announcement to date as to a human component. True, and there is also a plausible counter-vector in every case. I formerly supposed that the original WNS focus at Howe Caverns, NY must have been from human transmission, because bats don't fly across the Atlantic (an assumption repeated in the WNS article in the Dec. National Geographic). But someone at the last Fort Stanton expedition (perhaps you, Stephen?) mentioned to me that bats have been known to cross the oceans on ships. Peter Youngbaer later confirmed to me that there are multiple documented cases of this, and pointed out that Howe Caverns is relatively close to a port used by seagoing ships. Ship traffic is a very common vector for invasive organisms in general. In view of that, it seems at least equally likely (if not more so) that a stowaway bat flying to Howe Caverns was the initial vector, rather than visitors' shoes or gear. Such a bat would be likely to have made much closer contact with resident bats than would humans who might have been bearing G. d. spores. --Donald ___ SWR mailing list s...@caver.net http://caver.net/mailman/listinfo/swr_caver.net
Re: [SWR] [NMCAVER] Fw: Breaking News - NM's El Malpais National
Stephen Fleming wrote: a) No demonstrated human vector; pure, unsubstantiated speculation in every announcement to date as to a human component. True, and there is also a plausible counter-vector in every case. I formerly supposed that the original WNS focus at Howe Caverns, NY must have been from human transmission, because bats don't fly across the Atlantic (an assumption repeated in the WNS article in the Dec. National Geographic). But someone at the last Fort Stanton expedition (perhaps you, Stephen?) mentioned to me that bats have been known to cross the oceans on ships. Peter Youngbaer later confirmed to me that there are multiple documented cases of this, and pointed out that Howe Caverns is relatively close to a port used by seagoing ships. Ship traffic is a very common vector for invasive organisms in general. In view of that, it seems at least equally likely (if not more so) that a stowaway bat flying to Howe Caverns was the initial vector, rather than visitors' shoes or gear. Such a bat would be likely to have made much closer contact with resident bats than would humans who might have been bearing G. d. spores. --Donald ___ SWR mailing list s...@caver.net http://caver.net/mailman/listinfo/swr_caver.net
Re: [SWR] [NMCAVER] Fw: Breaking News - NM's El Malpais National Monument Closes Caves
This is the government. What does anyone expect?. If you look at the quality of most elected officials it will be made quite clear. These are not people that you would NOT invite for Christmas dinner.. There are four things that government does extremely well.. The first is to overreact to anything. The second is to (eventually) throw enormous sums of money at things. The third is to issue press releases to make believe that the problem has gone away based on the first two. The fourth, is denial of anything ever happening. Does this clarify things? If not, Please Read Civil Disobedience, by Henry David Thoreau. Carl. On Dec 8, 2010, at 10:48 PM, Stephen Fleming wrote: On 12/08/2010 13:03, jennifer wrote: Subject: Breaking News - NM's El Mapais National Monument Closes Caves http://www.nps.gov/elma/loader.cfm?csModule=security/ getfilePageID=522060 And so it begins. Probably a tipping point...it should not be unexpected if other areas/agencies follow suit in relatively short order. No agency wants to be the one that can be pointed to as having 'not done enough'. Such events just need somebody to go first and then the thing runs like a slinky down stairs. I'm surprised that we had not heard of this sooner given that the press release was dated Nov 22. So, to summarize... a) No demonstrated human vector; pure, unsubstantiated speculation in every announcement to date as to a human component. b) No evidence of WNS anywhere in NM. c) A minimum of 300 air miles between NW Oklahoma and El Malpais. d) Next closest confirmed incident approx. 1000 air miles east in eastern Missouri. e) No additional Oklahoma reports since the May 2010 single occurrence, nor of any other occurrences elsewhere in adjacent states; thus no evidence or even trend data to suggest a spread either is occurring or is at risk of doing so. f) The Oklahoma incident is of a different quality. Oklahoma Department of Wildlife notes: ...the pattern of infection was not consistent with the White Nose Syndrome infection observed in bats in the eastern United States. There also has not been a mortality event attributable to White Nose Syndrome in Oklahoma to date. The next closest known report of the fungus occurred in eastern Missouri earlier this year. To date, all of the White Nose Syndrome cases have been east of the Mississippi River. Ergo, in the absence of any documented facts specific to the park (or area, or state, and thus a question as to what is the compelling need?) the caves must be closed now. Very logical in some folks' minds, I guess. The NPS does not present a very compelling WNS case in their rambling catch-all explanation of the closure. The action surely appears more opportunistic than necessary, given the prospective nature of their language. Stephen Fleming _ Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored. – Aldous Huxley If the facts do not conform to the theory, they must be disposed of. – Maier’s Law The facts, although interesting, are irrelevant. – Unknown The fewer the facts, the stranger the opinion. – Arnold H. Glascow ___ SWR mailing list s...@caver.net http://caver.net/mailman/listinfo/swr_caver.net ___ SWR mailing list s...@caver.net http://caver.net/mailman/listinfo/swr_caver.net
Re: [SWR] [NMCAVER] Fw: Breaking News - NM's El Malpais National Monument Closes Caves
On 12/08/2010 13:03, jennifer wrote: Subject: Breaking News - NM's El Mapais National Monument Closes Caves http://www.nps.gov/elma/loader.cfm?csModule=security/getfilePageID=522060 And so it begins. Probably a tipping point...it should not be unexpected if other areas/agencies follow suit in relatively short order. No agency wants to be the one that can be pointed to as having 'not done enough'. Such events just need somebody to go first and then the thing runs like a slinky down stairs. I'm surprised that we had not heard of this sooner given that the press release was dated Nov 22. So, to summarize... a) No demonstrated human vector; pure, unsubstantiated speculation in every announcement to date as to a human component. b) No evidence of WNS anywhere in NM. c) A minimum of 300 air miles between NW Oklahoma and El Malpais. d) Next closest confirmed incident approx. 1000 air miles east in eastern Missouri. e) No additional Oklahoma reports since the May 2010 single occurrence, nor of any other occurrences elsewhere in adjacent states; thus no evidence or even trend data to suggest a spread either is occurring or is at risk of doing so. f) The Oklahoma incident is of a different quality. Oklahoma Department of Wildlife notes: ...the pattern of infection was _not_ consistent with the White Nose Syndrome infection observed in bats in the eastern United States. There also has _not_ been a mortality event attributable to White Nose Syndrome in Oklahoma to date. The next closest known report of the fungus occurred in eastern Missouri earlier this year. To date, all of the White Nose Syndrome cases have been east of the Mississippi River. Ergo, in the absence of any documented facts specific to the park (or area, or state, and thus a question as to what is the compelling need?) the caves must be closed now. Very logical in some folks' minds, I guess. The NPS does not present a very compelling WNS case in their rambling catch-all explanation of the closure. The action surely appears more opportunistic than necessary, given the prospective nature of their language. Stephen Fleming _ Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored. -- Aldous Huxley If the facts do not conform to the theory, they must be disposed of. -- Maier's Law The facts, although interesting, are irrelevant. -- Unknown The fewer the facts, the stranger the opinion. -- Arnold H. Glascow ___ SWR mailing list s...@caver.net http://caver.net/mailman/listinfo/swr_caver.net
