Re: [SWR] [NMCAVER] Fw: Breaking News - NM's El Malpais National Monument Closes Caves

2010-12-09 Thread Carl Pagano
This is the government. What does anyone expect?. If you look at the  
quality of most elected officials it will be made quite clear. These  
are not people that you would NOT invite for Christmas dinner..
 There are four things that government does extremely well.. The  
first is to overreact to anything. The second is to (eventually)  
throw enormous sums of money at things. The third is to issue press  
releases to make believe that the problem has gone away based on the  
first two. The fourth, is denial of anything ever happening.

  Does this clarify things?
   If not, Please Read Civil Disobedience, by Henry David Thoreau.
 Carl.

On Dec 8, 2010, at 10:48 PM, Stephen Fleming wrote:


On 12/08/2010 13:03, jennifer wrote:


Subject: Breaking News - NM's El Mapais National Monument Closes  
Caves


http://www.nps.gov/elma/loader.cfm?csModule=security/ 
getfilePageID=522060


And so it begins. Probably a tipping point...it should not be  
unexpected if other areas/agencies follow suit in relatively short  
order. No agency wants to be the one that can be pointed to as  
having 'not done enough'. Such events just need somebody to go  
first and then the thing runs like a slinky down stairs.


I'm surprised that we had not heard of this sooner given that the  
press release was dated Nov 22.


So, to summarize...

a) No demonstrated human vector; pure, unsubstantiated speculation  
in every announcement to date as to a human component.

b) No evidence of WNS anywhere in NM.
c) A minimum of 300 air miles between NW Oklahoma and El Malpais.
d) Next closest confirmed incident approx. 1000 air miles east in  
eastern Missouri.
e) No additional Oklahoma reports since the May 2010 single  
occurrence, nor of any other occurrences elsewhere in adjacent  
states; thus no evidence or even trend data to suggest a spread  
either is occurring or is at risk of doing so.
f) The Oklahoma incident is of a different quality. Oklahoma  
Department of Wildlife notes: ...the pattern of infection was not  
consistent with the White Nose Syndrome infection observed in bats  
in the eastern United States. There also has not been a mortality  
event attributable to White Nose Syndrome in Oklahoma to date. The  
next closest known report of the fungus occurred in eastern  
Missouri earlier this year. To date, all of the White Nose Syndrome  
cases have been east of the Mississippi River.


Ergo, in the absence of any documented facts specific to the park  
(or area, or state, and thus a question as to what is the  
compelling need?) the caves must be closed now. Very logical in  
some folks' minds, I guess. The NPS does not present a very  
compelling WNS case in their rambling catch-all explanation of the  
closure. The action surely appears more opportunistic than  
necessary, given the prospective nature of their language.


Stephen Fleming
_
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored. – Aldous Huxley
If the facts do not conform to the theory, they must be disposed  
of. – Maier’s Law

The facts, although interesting, are irrelevant. – Unknown
The fewer the facts, the stranger the opinion. – Arnold H. Glascow
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Re: [SWR] [NMCAVER] Fw: Breaking News - NM's El Malpais National Monument Closes Caves

2010-12-08 Thread Stephen Fleming

On 12/08/2010 13:03, jennifer wrote:

Subject: Breaking News - NM's El Mapais National Monument Closes Caves

http://www.nps.gov/elma/loader.cfm?csModule=security/getfilePageID=522060


And so it begins. Probably a tipping point...it should not be unexpected 
if other areas/agencies follow suit in relatively short order. No agency 
wants to be the one that can be pointed to as having 'not done enough'. 
Such events just need somebody to go first and then the thing runs like 
a slinky down stairs.


I'm surprised that we had not heard of this sooner given that the press 
release was dated Nov 22.


So, to summarize...

a) No demonstrated human vector; pure, unsubstantiated speculation in 
every announcement to date as to a human component.

b) No evidence of WNS anywhere in NM.
c) A minimum of 300 air miles between NW Oklahoma and El Malpais.
d) Next closest confirmed incident approx. 1000 air miles east in 
eastern Missouri.
e) No additional Oklahoma reports since the May 2010 single occurrence, 
nor of any other occurrences elsewhere in adjacent states; thus no 
evidence or even trend data to suggest a spread either is occurring or 
is at risk of doing so.
f) The Oklahoma incident is of a different quality. Oklahoma Department 
of Wildlife notes: ...the pattern of infection was _not_ consistent 
with the White Nose Syndrome infection observed in bats in the eastern 
United States. There also has _not_ been a mortality event attributable 
to White Nose Syndrome in Oklahoma to date. The next closest known 
report of the fungus occurred in eastern Missouri earlier this year. To 
date, all of the White Nose Syndrome cases have been east of the 
Mississippi River.


Ergo, in the absence of any documented facts specific to the park (or 
area, or state, and thus a question as to what is the compelling need?) 
the caves must be closed now. Very logical in some folks' minds, I 
guess. The NPS does not present a very compelling WNS case in their 
rambling catch-all explanation of the closure. The action surely appears 
more opportunistic than necessary, given the prospective nature of their 
language.


Stephen Fleming
_
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored. -- Aldous Huxley
If the facts do not conform to the theory, they must be disposed of. -- 
Maier's Law

The facts, although interesting, are irrelevant. -- Unknown
The fewer the facts, the stranger the opinion. -- Arnold H. Glascow
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s...@caver.net
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