Re: A different approach to scoring spamassassin hits

2007-07-08 Thread Tom Allison


On Jul 2, 2007, at 10:26 AM, Justin Mason wrote:



However as you note, you may be able to use the *absence* of a rule  
hit as

a ham token.  Also, you could add some informational rules matching
common innocent traits of nonspam mail, for the purpose of serving  
as good

ham rules in this setup.

By the way, we've tried this in the past without good results.  But  
please

do try; it's quite likely that there are good ways to do this which we
haven't tried.

Also, yes, it would be possible to do this quite easily as a new Check
plugin.  Simply subclass the existing one and reimplement the  
methods t


The results so far have been very good.  But the resources required  
to use SpamAssassin and my own filter are more than my current  
hardware can manage.  It's very small.  But perhaps I can get a  
cleaner implementation and improve performance.


Re: A different approach to scoring spamassassin hits

2007-07-05 Thread tom

On 7/2/2007, Nix [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:


If you wanted to replace all other scoring mechanisms with the Bayes DB,
you'd need a second Bayes DB for this, anyway, or you'd need the tokens
corresponding to typically negative-scoring rules to have values which
cannot appear in the body of an email. Anything else would enable spammers
to force both FPs and FNs by customizing spam appropriately to include
suitable NO_FOO/YES_FOO values.

That's why the data is being passed in as a second reference, nothing to
do with the message.  Seems to be working well, but there's some
optimization to include.


Re: A different approach to scoring spamassassin hits, Re: A different approach to scoring spamassassin hits

2007-07-05 Thread Nix
On 5 Jul 2007, [EMAIL PROTECTED] stated:

 On 7/2/2007, Nix [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 
 
If you wanted to replace all other scoring mechanisms with the Bayes DB,
you'd need a second Bayes DB for this, anyway, or you'd need the tokens
corresponding to typically negative-scoring rules to have values which
cannot appear in the body of an email. Anything else would enable spammers
to force both FPs and FNs by customizing spam appropriately to include
suitable NO_FOO/YES_FOO values.
 
 That's why the data is being passed in as a second reference, nothing to
 do with the message.  Seems to be working well, but there's some
 optimization to include.

It doesn't just need to be a second reference. The tokens need to be
independent of the message-derived tokens in the Bayes database itself
as well: i.e., it needs to be impossible for spammers to generate tokens
in the message body which can be used to influence the scores of the
tokens in the Bayes DB which correspond to the Bayes-scored rule hits.


(btw, Tom, what's wrong with your mailer? ^M characters --- CRCRLF line
terminators on the wire, perhaps? --- a doubled-up Subject line, and two
To: lines, one with fullnames, one without... I cleaned up the ^Ms in
this response.)

-- 
`... in the sense that dragons logically follow evolution so they would
 be able to wield metal.' --- Kenneth Eng's colourless green ideas sleep
 furiously


Re: A different approach to scoring spamassassin hits

2007-07-02 Thread Justin Mason

Tom Allison writes:
 For some years now there has been a lot of effective spam filtering  
 using statistical approaches with variations on Bayesian theory, some  
 of these are inverse Chi Square modifications to Niave Bayes or even  
 CRM114 and other languages have been developed to improve the  
 scoring of statistical analysis of spam.  For all statistical  
 processes the spamicity is always between 0 and 1.

Actually, I think this is just a convention adopted by Paul Graham
in his Plan for Spam blog post; SpamAssassin was there beforehand
with the (ham  5  spam) range idea. ;)  But anyway...

 Before this, and along side this, has been the approach of  
 spamassassin wherein every email is evaluated against a library of  
 rules and for each rule and number of points is assigned to it.   
 Given enough points, the email is ham/spam.  To accomodate the  
 Bayesian process, SA was modified with a Bayes engine and the ability  
 to add points depending on where the bayesian score fell (.85, . 
 95...).  And for all of these processes the score is between  
 something negative and something positive depending on the total  
 number of hits and the points assigned to them.
 
 It occurred to me that this process of assigning points to each  
 HIT (either addition or subtraction of points) is slightly  
 arbitrary.  There is a long process of evaluating for the most  
 effective score for each rule and then providing that as the  
 default.  The Mail Admin has the option to retune these various  
 parameters as needed.  To me, this looks like a lot of knobs I can  
 turn on a very complex machine I will probably never really  
 understand.  In short, if I touch it, I will break it.  But the  
 arbitrary part of the process is this manual balancing act between  
 how many points to apply to something and getting the call from the  
 CEO about his over abundance of east european teenage solicitors (or  
 lack thereof).
 
 The thought I had, and have been working on for a while, is changing  
 how the scoring is done.  Rather than making Bayes a part of the  
 scoring process, make the scoring process a part of the Bayes  
 statistical Engine.  As an example you would simply feed into the  
 Bayesian process, as tokens, the indications of scoring hits (binary  
 yes/no) would be examined next to the other tokens in the message.
 
 It would be the Bayes process that determines the effective number of  
 points you assign for each HIT based on what it's learned about it  
 from you.  So the tags of: ADVANCE_FEE_1, ADVANCE_FEE_2 would be  
 represented as a token of format:
 ADVANCE_FEE_1=YES or NO
 ADVANCE_FEE_2=YES or NO
 and each of these tokens would then be evaluated based on your  
 learning process.
 
 An advantage of this would be the elimination of the process to  
 determine the best number of points to assign or to determine if you  
 even want a rule included.
 
 Point assignments would be determined based on the statistical hits  
 (number of spam, number of ham) and would be tuned between a per site  
 or per user basis depending on the bayes engine configuration.  Each  
 users, by means of their feedback, would tune the importance of each  
 rule applied.
 
 Determining if you wanted to include a rule would be automatically  
 determined for you based on the resulting scoring.  if you have a  
 rule that has an overall historical performance of 0.499 then it's  
 pretty obvious that it's incapable of Seeing your kind of spam/ 
 ham.  But if you throw together a rule and run it for a week and find  
 it's scoring 0.001 or 0.999 then you have evidence of how effective  
 the rule is and can continue to use it.  It is conceivable that you  
 could start with All known rules and later on remove all the rules  
 that are nominally 0.500 to improve performance on a objective  
 process.  It would also apply to any of the networked rules like  
 botnet, dcc, razor because they just have a tagline and a YES/NO  
 indication.
 
 I've been working on something like this myself with great affect,  
 but it would be far more practical to utilize much of the knowledge  
 and capability that already exists in spamassassin.  But I'm not  
 familiar enough with spamassassin to know how to gain visibility into  
 all the rules run and all their results (hits are easy in  
 PerMsgStatus, but misses are not).  If someone would be willing to  
 give me some pointer to a roadmap of sorts it would be appreciated.

OK -- hits, as you say, are easy to find.  But in order to identify
misses, you'd have to iterate through the list of test names (probably
easiest to iterate over the {scores} hash keys), and collect the names of
all the rules, then use the hits array to figure out what rules
to remove from that list.

The big issue is that, as others have noted, there are very few
negative-scoring rules, because it's trivial for spammers to forge them.
The only safe way to do good ham rules, generally, are:

- network 

Re: A different approach to scoring spamassassin hits

2007-07-02 Thread Nix
On 2 Jul 2007, Justin Mason spake thusly:


 Tom Allison writes:
 For some years now there has been a lot of effective spam filtering  
 using statistical approaches with variations on Bayesian theory, some  
 of these are inverse Chi Square modifications to Niave Bayes or even  
 CRM114 and other languages have been developed to improve the  
 scoring of statistical analysis of spam.  For all statistical  
 processes the spamicity is always between 0 and 1.

 Actually, I think this is just a convention adopted by Paul Graham
 in his Plan for Spam blog post; SpamAssassin was there beforehand
 with the (ham  5  spam) range idea. ;)  But anyway...

Well, it's a probability, isn't it: P(spam). All probabilities are
expressed as numbers between 0 and 1, therefore...

But no, there's nothing magic about it.

 The big issue is that, as others have noted, there are very few
 negative-scoring rules, because it's trivial for spammers to forge them.
 The only safe way to do good ham rules, generally, are:

 - network whitelisting
 - SPF/DK/DKIM-driven whitelists
 - site-specific rules
 - Bayes-like learned tokens derived from a ham corpus

If you wanted to replace all other scoring mechanisms with the Bayes DB,
you'd need a second Bayes DB for this, anyway, or you'd need the tokens
corresponding to typically negative-scoring rules to have values which
cannot appear in the body of an email. Anything else would enable spammers
to force both FPs and FNs by customizing spam appropriately to include
suitable NO_FOO/YES_FOO values.

-- 
`... in the sense that dragons logically follow evolution so they would
 be able to wield metal.' --- Kenneth Eng's colourless green ideas sleep
 furiously


Re: A different approach to scoring spamassassin hits

2007-07-01 Thread Tom Allison


On Jun 30, 2007, at 11:55 PM, Loren Wilton wrote:



Unfortunately I'm not on the SpamAssassin Bayes modules -- I wrote  
my  own Bayes Engine because I wanted to do that and then thought  
about  including the Rules results from SpamAssassin.  I don't  
know where  this might be going, but it seems to be working  
extremely well for me  based on a training set of just a couple  
hundred emails in total.


Don't see this as a problem.  Someone, I forget who, has a Bayes  
chained to an SA setup, I think the Bayes comes first, but I don't  
recall.  He was claiming good results from chained classifiers  
using slightly different data and methods.  This seems like a  
reasonably possible contention to me.


If you have a pre-existing Bayes mail filter, and it runs as a  
filter in a pipe or the like, then basically what you want to do  
seems very simple to me, at least conceptually.  Just run the mail  
through SA first and then into your classifier.  The rule names hit  
along with their scores will be in the header of the mail you  
process in your classifier, and thus, as long as you don't ignore  
header data, the rule names are there to process.  No need even to  
modify SA.  In fact you can get a header with just the rule names  
hit without the scores, so you don't have the score values being  
scored as tokens.


The only case where you would have to modify SA in I think either  
Check or PMS is if you really did want to bloat every mail with the  
names of all of the rules in the SA database, rather than just  
those pertanent to the mail at hand.


I hink the trick is simply looking at your mail chain and figuring  
out how to insert a call to SA before the call to your own Bayes  
module.


Actually I have this but I don't have it writting the headers into  
the email.  It' s sending the SA data as attached information so I  
can keep track of where it came from (header/body/metadata).  I'm not  
sure that the scoring is going to cost me anything or cause any  
performance issues compared to getting the hits/misses.  I think  
we're debating the cpu involved to determine a number for the score,  
not the scoring process itself.


I have a question about the sub rules -- are they themselves adding  
up to an overall rule by means of hit/miss?
Is there any conceptual advantage to pulling in rules and sub_rules  
to this process.


And the more I think about it, the more I don't need to bloat every  
mail with the names of all the rules.

But sub_rules might be more useful.

---

By not putting in all the SA rules it might make it easier to  
establish the contribution of the scoring, but you have to know the  
intended target (RULE = spam or RULE = ham) which isn't an issue  
with todays rules (but you never know).  Once you know this, the  
effectiveness of a rule would be measured by it's distance in  
probability from 0.500 toward 1.00.  I can track this eventually, but  
I think I need to reset my database to be certain of it's value.  Not  
a problem, I am my own admin.


But the real challenge for me, as has always been the case with SA,  
is the proper care and feeding of the application when not using the  
standard spamc/spamd and spamassassin scripts.  I suspect this starts  
with a lot of RTFM and then I can get to some real questions.  The  
difficulty for me is trimming out all the steps in the application  
that I won't be benefitting from.  I would like to start with  
something that is approximately: local static rules only, no user  
specific preferences, no learning or bayes or white/black listing.   
By local static I mean to use the rules based on email content  
analysis without network consultation (DNS, RBL, DCC...)




Re: A different approach to scoring spamassassin hits

2007-06-30 Thread John Andersen
On Friday 29 June 2007, Tom Allison wrote:
 
 It would be the Bayes process that determines the effective number of
 points you assign for each HIT based on what it's learned about it
 from you.  So the tags of: ADVANCE_FEE_1, ADVANCE_FEE_2 would be
 represented as a token of format:
 ADVANCE_FEE_1=YES or NO
 ADVANCE_FEE_2=YES or NO
 and each of these tokens would then be evaluated based on your
 learning process.

Sort of like a multiple linear regression analysis, where you simply start
dropping terms with low coefficients to simplify the calculation.

Interesting Idea.

You have a bit of a chicken and egg problem at the start.  Until
some learning takes place in the system.





-- 
_
John Andersen


Re: A different approach to scoring spamassassin hits

2007-06-30 Thread Tom Allison


On Jun 30, 2007, at 1:20 AM, Marc Perkel wrote:





Tom Allison wrote:
For some years now there has been a lot of effective spam  
filtering using statistical approaches with variations on Bayesian  
theory, some of these are inverse Chi Square modifications to  
Niave Bayes or even CRM114 and other languages have been  
developed to improve the scoring of statistical analysis of spam.   
For all statistical processes the spamicity is always between 0  
and 1.

snip

Many Thanks for those of you who have read this far for your  
patience and consideration.


Tom, I suggested something somilar to that years ago and I'd still  
like to see it tried out. I wonder what would happen if you  
stripped ot the body and ran bayes just on the headers and the  
rules and let bayes figure it out. You do have to have some points  
to start with to get bayes pointed in the right direction. But you  
could use black lists and white lists to do bayes training. Also  
needs more rules to identify ham and not just rules to identify spam.


I was under the belief that there were Ham-centric tests that would  
result in negative point scorings.


Ham doesn't try to be evasive.  It's pretty easy to identify.   
Without SA tagging much of it falls to 0.5 and whitelisting would  
capture much of the exceptions.


As for headers only testing -- The first five lines of stock spam is  
very telling...


My question about SA is the PerMsgStatus (I think) Is this the place  
to retrieve all the rules information?  I know today you can get a  
list of all the rules that HIT, but is there where you would look to  
find all the rules that were attempted?  Or is there a better place  
for it?


Re: A different approach to scoring spamassassin hits

2007-06-30 Thread Tom Allison


On Jun 30, 2007, at 4:46 AM, John Andersen wrote:



On Friday 29 June 2007, Tom Allison wrote:


It would be the Bayes process that determines the effective number of
points you assign for each HIT based on what it's learned about it
from you.  So the tags of: ADVANCE_FEE_1, ADVANCE_FEE_2 would be
represented as a token of format:
ADVANCE_FEE_1=YES or NO
ADVANCE_FEE_2=YES or NO
and each of these tokens would then be evaluated based on your
learning process.


Sort of like a multiple linear regression analysis, where you  
simply start

dropping terms with low coefficients to simplify the calculation.

Interesting Idea.

You have a bit of a chicken and egg problem at the start.  Until
some learning takes place in the system.



For a purely bayesian filter this is always the case.
But I have found through mailing lists and personal experience that  
this can be mitigated through a variety of approaches.


The first approach is to impliment SA after you have trained it from  
some past corpus of mail you've captured.  The opinion on how many  
you need to be effective varies from 10's to 1,000's.  This is  
strictly a YMMV issue.


Personally, I use an approach of train on error (never auto-train or  
train on everything but only the minimum to get right) with a result  
of 10 emails gets me above 90%.  But my scoring is a little vague --  
I use a ternary Yes, No, Maybe scoring process.  If I exclude the  
Maybe I have 100% success in very short order.  Including Maybe I  
have 98% success after training on ~100 messages.  But the worse is  
over in the first day.


Another method would be to simply seed the data from a SQL script to  
preload certain tokens and values.  Kind of a hack in my opinion  
but it would be effective and any discrepancies would be quickly  
resolved by training.  In the case of SA I would seed the rules into  
the tables for the simplest, yet effective results.





Re: A different approach to scoring spamassassin hits

2007-06-30 Thread Loren Wilton

You have a bit of a chicken and egg problem at the start.  Until
some learning takes place in the system.


Two possibilities.  The rules exist and have scores.  Assume they are 
maintained, for whatever reason.


1.Until Bayes has enough info to kick in, classification is done by the 
scores.  Then when Bayes kicks in the scores turn off (insofar as adding to 
themessage score, they might still show up as tokens in the message that 
Bayes will process).


2.Divide all the scores by 10 or 20.  The leave them on.  Pretty soon 
bayes will override almost any reasonable score combination.


BTW, while ham rules are possible, SA has almost no ham rules; perhaps two 
or so.  Spammers long ago found they could write their spams to match ham 
rules and thus bypass SA.  Thus, no ham rules, no spmammer workarounds.  Of 
course personal or ste specific ham rules will generally still work, since 
they will not be public knowledge and spammers won't be able to target them.


I suspect you can find all rule names in PerMsgStatus.  However the latest 
SA versions have implemented a 'check' plugin that actually runs the rules 
and accumulates the score.  The rule running was moved to a plugin so that 
people could, at least in theory, change the order or the way that rules are 
run.  It sounds like that is what you want to do, so a modified Check plugin 
may well be the way to go.


I don't understand though why you are interested in the names of all rules 
run; I don't see what it buys you.  Currently ALL rules are run, unless 
short-circuiting is in effect, and by default it mostly isn't.  In any case, 
if a rule doesn't hit on a message, the name of the rule is probably 
irrelevent.  It might have missed because the message is ham, but it even 
more likely missed because it simply targets a different kind of spam.  So 
assuming that rules not hit === good tokens is unlikely to be the case.


You should be able to get Bayes to scan the rule names hit pretty easily. 
Bayes is just about the last rule; I think Awl comes after it.  You might 
want to change that order, which I suspect you can do in the Check plugin. 
You could then modifty the Check code to push the rule names into a special 
header line before calling Bayes.  This could probably be done in Check, and 
could certainly be done by a one-off plugin that you wrote.  It would be 
called by a special rule just before Bayes is called, and again, it would 
add the current rule names to a special header bayes could see.


Of course you have to modify Check to drop out the scores for the non-byes 
rules.  Either that or rescore all of the rules.


   Loren




Re: A different approach to scoring spamassassin hits

2007-06-30 Thread Tom Allison


On Jun 30, 2007, at 8:07 AM, Loren Wilton wrote:




You have a bit of a chicken and egg problem at the start.  Until
some learning takes place in the system.


Two possibilities.  The rules exist and have scores.  Assume they  
are maintained, for whatever reason.


1.Until Bayes has enough info to kick in, classification is  
done by the scores.  Then when Bayes kicks in the scores turn off  
(insofar as adding to themessage score, they might still show up as  
tokens in the message that Bayes will process).


2.Divide all the scores by 10 or 20.  The leave them on.   
Pretty soon bayes will override almost any reasonable score  
combination.


BTW, while ham rules are possible, SA has almost no ham rules;  
perhaps two or so.  Spammers long ago found they could write their  
spams to match ham rules and thus bypass SA.  Thus, no ham rules,  
no spmammer workarounds.  Of course personal or ste specific ham  
rules will generally still work, since they will not be public  
knowledge and spammers won't be able to target them.


I suspect you can find all rule names in PerMsgStatus.  However the  
latest SA versions have implemented a 'check' plugin that actually  
runs the rules and accumulates the score.  The rule running was  
moved to a plugin so that people could, at least in theory, change  
the order or the way that rules are run.  It sounds like that is  
what you want to do, so a modified Check plugin may well be the way  
to go.


I don't understand though why you are interested in the names of  
all rules run; I don't see what it buys you.  Currently ALL rules  
are run, unless short-circuiting is in effect, and by default it  
mostly isn't.  In any case, if a rule doesn't hit on a message, the  
name of the rule is probably irrelevent.  It might have missed  
because the message is ham, but it even more likely missed because  
it simply targets a different kind of spam.  So assuming that  
rules not hit === good tokens is unlikely to be the case.


But in Bayes, you can't score on the absence of a token.  Just  
because the email I'm writing does not contain a certain word does  
not mean it is good.  The listing of ALL rules run with a binary  
YES/NO indication applied to each one would permit you to accrue  
points for both the presence of and lack of a specific rule.  But  
this would allow you to start applying pro Ham rules as well.


But you may have a point that rules not hit is sufficient for  
determining good tokens in the same manner that viagra is bad and  
not having viagra permits the email to score on the other tokens  
available.  To further prove this out, the practice of spammers (who  
I'm sure are reading this list) is to try to apply enough skew to the  
Bayes to push it low and skip enough rules to keep from scoring any  
hits -- the net effect is to come up with Unsure email (I work in a  
ternary system).  Under pure bayesian statistics, the cutoff points  
for ham/spam tend to move pretty quickly from a nominal 0.3/0.7 to  
0.3/0.5 giving the entire probability range of 0.500 to 1.00 over to  
Spam and 0.00 to 0.300 (or even lower) to specifically Ham with a  
belt of uncertainty in the middle.


And after typing all this I'm thinking you might be right. But part  
of this approach is to run all these rules in YES/NO fashion and see  
if the probability is significant.  For example:  If I tested for  
SOME_TEST=NO and found it was scoring a probability of ~0.500 then  
it's indisputable that you are right.


The only area of exception to this would be some kind of AWL factor  
rather than a hard coded AWL override.  Creative Regex can handle  
this by capturing the email addresses in FROM: and providing a very  
strong probability for that.  Not a Whitelist, but an indication.   
Not sure, haven't considered it as I never found AWL to be really  
useful compared against the impact of Bayes on headers.


As for the start up effectiveness.  There are a variety of ways to do  
this.  I consider this similar to installing linux.  It might be  
harder to do than buying a computer with Windows installed for you,  
but the long term benefits out weigh the short term gains and how  
often do you really install Linux or SpamAssassin?  You can always  
seed the data from captured emails.


Thank you for the information on Check.  I will look into that and  
see if I can come up with something that will do the trick.  I have  
to confess I'm coming into this backwards, I wrote a bayesian spam  
filter and then started looking into SpamAssassin so my Bayes  
statistical Engine is not SpamAssassins.  But the results will be the  
same for either approach (I hope) if you simply push rules in as meta- 
data tokens into the Statistical Process.


Re: A different approach to scoring spamassassin hits

2007-06-30 Thread Marc Perkel



Tom Allison wrote:


On Jun 30, 2007, at 1:20 AM, Marc Perkel wrote:





Tom Allison wrote:
For some years now there has been a lot of effective spam filtering 
using statistical approaches with variations on Bayesian theory, 
some of these are inverse Chi Square modifications to Niave Bayes or 
even CRM114 and other languages have been developed to improve the 
scoring of statistical analysis of spam.  For all statistical 
processes the spamicity is always between 0 and 1.

snip

Many Thanks for those of you who have read this far for your 
patience and consideration.


Tom, I suggested something somilar to that years ago and I'd still 
like to see it tried out. I wonder what would happen if you stripped 
ot the body and ran bayes just on the headers and the rules and let 
bayes figure it out. You do have to have some points to start with to 
get bayes pointed in the right direction. But you could use black 
lists and white lists to do bayes training. Also needs more rules to 
identify ham and not just rules to identify spam.


I was under the belief that there were Ham-centric tests that would 
result in negative point scorings.


Ham doesn't try to be evasive.  It's pretty easy to identify.  Without 
SA tagging much of it falls to 0.5 and whitelisting would capture 
much of the exceptions.


As for headers only testing -- The first five lines of stock spam is 
very telling...


My question about SA is the PerMsgStatus (I think) Is this the place 
to retrieve all the rules information?  I know today you can get a 
list of all the rules that HIT, but is there where you would look to 
find all the rules that were attempted?  Or is there a better place 
for it?




There are some ham tests in SA but not nearly enough.


Re: A different approach to scoring spamassassin hits

2007-06-30 Thread Marc Perkel



Loren Wilton wrote:

You have a bit of a chicken and egg problem at the start.  Until
some learning takes place in the system.


Two possibilities.  The rules exist and have scores.  Assume they are 
maintained, for whatever reason.


1.Until Bayes has enough info to kick in, classification is done 
by the scores.  Then when Bayes kicks in the scores turn off (insofar 
as adding to themessage score, they might still show up as tokens in 
the message that Bayes will process).


2.Divide all the scores by 10 or 20.  The leave them on.  Pretty 
soon bayes will override almost any reasonable score combination.


BTW, while ham rules are possible, SA has almost no ham rules; perhaps 
two or so.  Spammers long ago found they could write their spams to 
match ham rules and thus bypass SA.  Thus, no ham rules, no spmammer 
workarounds.  Of course personal or ste specific ham rules will 
generally still work, since they will not be public knowledge and 
spammers won't be able to target them.


I suspect you can find all rule names in PerMsgStatus.  However the 
latest SA versions have implemented a 'check' plugin that actually 
runs the rules and accumulates the score.  The rule running was moved 
to a plugin so that people could, at least in theory, change the order 
or the way that rules are run.  It sounds like that is what you want 
to do, so a modified Check plugin may well be the way to go.


I don't understand though why you are interested in the names of all 
rules run; I don't see what it buys you.  Currently ALL rules are run, 
unless short-circuiting is in effect, and by default it mostly isn't.  
In any case, if a rule doesn't hit on a message, the name of the rule 
is probably irrelevent.  It might have missed because the message is 
ham, but it even more likely missed because it simply targets a 
different kind of spam.  So assuming that rules not hit === good 
tokens is unlikely to be the case.


You should be able to get Bayes to scan the rule names hit pretty 
easily. Bayes is just about the last rule; I think Awl comes after 
it.  You might want to change that order, which I suspect you can do 
in the Check plugin. You could then modifty the Check code to push the 
rule names into a special header line before calling Bayes.  This 
could probably be done in Check, and could certainly be done by a 
one-off plugin that you wrote.  It would be called by a special rule 
just before Bayes is called, and again, it would add the current rule 
names to a special header bayes could see.


Of course you have to modify Check to drop out the scores for the 
non-byes rules.  Either that or rescore all of the rules.




Just a thought - what if we had some central servers for real time 
reporting where the SA rule hits and scores were reported in real time 
for some sort of live scoring or analysis or dynamic adjusting? Just 
thinking out loud here.


Re: A different approach to scoring spamassassin hits

2007-06-30 Thread Bart Schaefer

On 6/29/07, Tom Allison [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:


The thought I had, and have been working on for a while, is changing
how the scoring is done.  Rather than making Bayes a part of the
scoring process, make the scoring process a part of the Bayes
statistical Engine.  As an example you would simply feed into the
Bayesian process, as tokens, the indications of scoring hits (binary
yes/no) would be examined next to the other tokens in the message.


There are a few problems with this.

(1) It assumes that Bayesian (or similar) classification is more
accurate than SA's scoring system.  Either that, or you're willing to
give up accuracy in the name of removing all those confusing knobs you
don't want to touch, but it would seem to me to be better to have the
knobs and just not touch them.

(2) For many SA rules you would be, in effect, double-counting some
tokens.  An SA scoring rule that matches a phrase, for example, is
effectively matching a collection of tokens that are also being fed
individually to the Bayes engine.  In theory, you should not
second-guess the system by passing such compound tokens to Bayes;
instead it should be allowed to learn what combinations of tokens are
meaningful when they appear together.

(It might be worthwhile, though, to e.g. add tokens that are not
otherwise present in the message, such as for the results of network
tests.)

(3) It introduces a bootstrapping problem, as has already been noted.
Everyone has to train the engine and re-train it when new rules are
developed.

I've thought of a few more, but they all have to do with the benifits
of having all those knobs and if you've already adopted the basic
premise that they should be removed there doesn't seem to be any
reason to argue that part.

To summarize my opinion:  If what you want is to have a Bayesian-type
engine make all the decisions, then you should install a Bayesian
engine and work on ways to feed it the right tokens; you should not
install SpamAssassin and then work on ways to remove the scoring.


Re: A different approach to scoring spamassassin hits

2007-06-30 Thread Tom Allison


On Jun 30, 2007, at 2:55 PM, Bart Schaefer wrote:



On 6/29/07, Tom Allison [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:


The thought I had, and have been working on for a while, is changing
how the scoring is done.  Rather than making Bayes a part of the
scoring process, make the scoring process a part of the Bayes
statistical Engine.  As an example you would simply feed into the
Bayesian process, as tokens, the indications of scoring hits (binary
yes/no) would be examined next to the other tokens in the message.


There are a few problems with this.

(1) It assumes that Bayesian (or similar) classification is more
accurate than SA's scoring system.  Either that, or you're willing to
give up accuracy in the name of removing all those confusing knobs you
don't want to touch, but it would seem to me to be better to have the
knobs and just not touch them.

I know that without SA you can have 99.9% accuracy with pure  
bayesian classification.
But there are specific non Bayes things that are made visible through  
spamassassin rules that a typical bayes process can't catch (very  
well or at all).  The whole issue of knobs is moot under a  
statistical approach because each users scoring will determine the  
real importance of each particular rule hit.



(2) For many SA rules you would be, in effect, double-counting some
tokens.  An SA scoring rule that matches a phrase, for example, is
effectively matching a collection of tokens that are also being fed
individually to the Bayes engine.  In theory, you should not
second-guess the system by passing such compound tokens to Bayes;
instead it should be allowed to learn what combinations of tokens are
meaningful when they appear together.


Bayes does not match a phrase, only words.  At least that is what  
most Bayes filters do.
There are some approaches that do use multiple words, but not a  
phrase.  Therefore I think the intersection of Bayes and  
Spamassassin rules is going to be small.



(It might be worthwhile, though, to e.g. add tokens that are not
otherwise present in the message, such as for the results of network
tests.)


This is what I'm interested in and mentioned in paragraph one.  There  
are a lot of things you can do with SpamAssassin that just Bayes will  
never do. It is exactly this type of work that I think would be most  
interesting to pursue.



(3) It introduces a bootstrapping problem, as has already been noted.
Everyone has to train the engine and re-train it when new rules are
developed.

I've thought of a few more, but they all have to do with the benifits
of having all those knobs and if you've already adopted the basic
premise that they should be removed there doesn't seem to be any
reason to argue that part.

To summarize my opinion:  If what you want is to have a Bayesian-type
engine make all the decisions, then you should install a Bayesian
engine and work on ways to feed it the right tokens; you should not
install SpamAssassin and then work on ways to remove the scoring.


It makes sense to do this approach.  However it would not make sense  
to try and reinvent the fantastic amount of useful work that has come  
from SpamAssassin. That would take a very long time to address.   
SpamAssassin has some really great ways of finding the right tokens.   
Why would I consider trying to duplicate all that effort.


Re: A different approach to scoring spamassassin hits

2007-06-30 Thread Loren Wilton
And after typing all this I'm thinking you might be right. But part  of 
this approach is to run all these rules in YES/NO fashion and see  if the 
probability is significant.  For example:  If I tested for  SOME_TEST=NO 
and found it was scoring a probability of ~0.500 then  it's indisputable 
that you are right.


Well, this still doesn't make any real sense to me; it seems equivalent to 
the attempts at bayes poison that spammers stick into their spams: a bunch 
of words totally unrelated to the mail in the hopes of outweighing the 
useful terms.  Now their trick works as a good spam indication because the 
words they pick aren't common to my ham mails, so it is really a good spam 
indication rather than poison.  I'm not immediately convinced that will hold 
for the usage you intend. Maybe.  Maybe not.


However, if you want to do this, remember that bayes works on tokens and has 
a tokenizer.  So SOME_RULE=YES is probably either two or three tokens, and 
you will end up scoring on the probability of YES and NO, along with the 
frequency of the rule names, which will be 1.  So you probably want to do 
NO_SOME_RULE and YES_OTHER_RULE or the like when you build the insert list. 
Again though I'm not sure I see the point in the yes and no factors; the 
presence or absense of a word in the mail seems like a pretty good yes/no 
indication to me.


Were I doing it I'd try it both ways and see if there is any difference in 
results.


   Loren




Re: A different approach to scoring spamassassin hits

2007-06-30 Thread Loren Wilton
Just a thought - what if we had some central servers for real time 
reporting where the SA rule hits and scores were reported in real time for 
some sort of live scoring or analysis or dynamic adjusting? Just thinking 
out loud here.


Something I've wanted to see for about 4 years now; ie: as long as I've been 
using SA.  You could think of it as a super mass-check in realtime.


There are arguments that large hosting companies wouldn't let the data out 
because it woudl compromise their mail stream.  That would of course be true 
if the sent the mail.  If they just send the cumulative scores over the last 
hour or whatever I don't see that being true; although doubtless some would 
still consider that to be the case and wouldn't send it.


However, I'd bet that enough info would arive from all parts of the globe to 
be able to do weekly or maybe even every few hours rescoring runs and 
publish new scores, pretty much like the virus guys publish new signatures 
pretty quickly.


There is the question of how to integrate the new scores with local 
rescoring, and even with local rules that were scored based on the original 
score of the stock rules.


I think there are a half-dozen solutions to this that would be moderately 
easy to implement.  The most obvious would be sending score updates either 
in the form of a multiplier or an adder to the original rule score rather 
than as a raw score; this would preserve local overrides while still 
adjusting the score to match daily hit rates.  (Don't bother me with the 
obvious point of adjusting zeroed scores off of zero.  That is an exception 
that simply has to be handled in the score readjustment; it isn't a 
concept-breaker.)


If the rescoring client at a site wanted to be fancy, it could even send an 
optional email to the mail admin telling him that some local rule is bad for 
his health or that some zeroed rule has now become useful and should be 
unzeroed.  Or the like.


   Loren




Re: A different approach to scoring spamassassin hits

2007-06-30 Thread Tom Allison


On Jun 30, 2007, at 6:29 PM, Loren Wilton wrote:



And after typing all this I'm thinking you might be right. But  
part  of this approach is to run all these rules in YES/NO fashion  
and see  if the probability is significant.  For example:  If I  
tested for  SOME_TEST=NO and found it was scoring a probability of  
~0.500 then  it's indisputable that you are right.


Well, this still doesn't make any real sense to me; it seems  
equivalent to the attempts at bayes poison that spammers stick into  
their spams: a bunch of words totally unrelated to the mail in the  
hopes of outweighing the useful terms.  Now their trick works as a  
good spam indication because the words they pick aren't common to  
my ham mails, so it is really a good spam indication rather than  
poison.  I'm not immediately convinced that will hold for the usage  
you intend. Maybe.  Maybe not.


However, if you want to do this, remember that bayes works on  
tokens and has a tokenizer.  So SOME_RULE=YES is probably either  
two or three tokens, and you will end up scoring on the probability  
of YES and NO, along with the frequency of the rule names, which  
will be 1.  So you probably want to do NO_SOME_RULE and  
YES_OTHER_RULE or the like when you build the insert list. Again  
though I'm not sure I see the point in the yes and no factors; the  
presence or absense of a word in the mail seems like a pretty good  
yes/no indication to me.


Were I doing it I'd try it both ways and see if there is any  
difference in results.


I agree with you that it's probably not going to be very effective to  
use a binary token (eg: SOME_RULE=YES vs SOME_RULE=NO) compared to  
the presence of the rule (SOME_RULE exists implies SOME_RULE=YES).


So the method:
   $list = $status-get_names_of_tests_hit ()
may cover everything that is required to evaluate this approach.

Unfortunately I'm not on the SpamAssassin Bayes modules -- I wrote my  
own Bayes Engine because I wanted to do that and then thought about  
including the Rules results from SpamAssassin.  I don't know where  
this might be going, but it seems to be working extremely well for me  
based on a training set of just a couple hundred emails in total.




Re: A different approach to scoring spamassassin hits

2007-06-30 Thread Loren Wilton
Unfortunately I'm not on the SpamAssassin Bayes modules -- I wrote my  own 
Bayes Engine because I wanted to do that and then thought about  including 
the Rules results from SpamAssassin.  I don't know where  this might be 
going, but it seems to be working extremely well for me  based on a 
training set of just a couple hundred emails in total.


Don't see this as a problem.  Someone, I forget who, has a Bayes chained to 
an SA setup, I think the Bayes comes first, but I don't recall.  He was 
claiming good results from chained classifiers using slightly different data 
and methods.  This seems like a reasonably possible contention to me.


If you have a pre-existing Bayes mail filter, and it runs as a filter in a 
pipe or the like, then basically what you want to do seems very simple to 
me, at least conceptually.  Just run the mail through SA first and then into 
your classifier.  The rule names hit along with their scores will be in the 
header of the mail you process in your classifier, and thus, as long as you 
don't ignore header data, the rule names are there to process.  No need even 
to modify SA.  In fact you can get a header with just the rule names hit 
without the scores, so you don't have the score values being scored as 
tokens.


The only case where you would have to modify SA in I think either Check or 
PMS is if you really did want to bloat every mail with the names of all of 
the rules in the SA database, rather than just those pertanent to the mail 
at hand.


I hink the trick is simply looking at your mail chain and figuring out how 
to insert a call to SA before the call to your own Bayes module.


   Loren




A different approach to scoring spamassassin hits

2007-06-29 Thread Tom Allison
For some years now there has been a lot of effective spam filtering  
using statistical approaches with variations on Bayesian theory, some  
of these are inverse Chi Square modifications to Niave Bayes or even  
CRM114 and other languages have been developed to improve the  
scoring of statistical analysis of spam.  For all statistical  
processes the spamicity is always between 0 and 1.


Before this, and along side this, has been the approach of  
spamassassin wherein every email is evaluated against a library of  
rules and for each rule and number of points is assigned to it.   
Given enough points, the email is ham/spam.  To accomodate the  
Bayesian process, SA was modified with a Bayes engine and the ability  
to add points depending on where the bayesian score fell (.85, . 
95...).  And for all of these processes the score is between  
something negative and something positive depending on the total  
number of hits and the points assigned to them.


It occurred to me that this process of assigning points to each  
HIT (either addition or subtraction of points) is slightly  
arbitrary.  There is a long process of evaluating for the most  
effective score for each rule and then providing that as the  
default.  The Mail Admin has the option to retune these various  
parameters as needed.  To me, this looks like a lot of knobs I can  
turn on a very complex machine I will probably never really  
understand.  In short, if I touch it, I will break it.  But the  
arbitrary part of the process is this manual balancing act between  
how many points to apply to something and getting the call from the  
CEO about his over abundance of east european teenage solicitors (or  
lack thereof).


The thought I had, and have been working on for a while, is changing  
how the scoring is done.  Rather than making Bayes a part of the  
scoring process, make the scoring process a part of the Bayes  
statistical Engine.  As an example you would simply feed into the  
Bayesian process, as tokens, the indications of scoring hits (binary  
yes/no) would be examined next to the other tokens in the message.


It would be the Bayes process that determines the effective number of  
points you assign for each HIT based on what it's learned about it  
from you.  So the tags of: ADVANCE_FEE_1, ADVANCE_FEE_2 would be  
represented as a token of format:

ADVANCE_FEE_1=YES or NO
ADVANCE_FEE_2=YES or NO
and each of these tokens would then be evaluated based on your  
learning process.


An advantage of this would be the elimination of the process to  
determine the best number of points to assign or to determine if you  
even want a rule included.


Point assignments would be determined based on the statistical hits  
(number of spam, number of ham) and would be tuned between a per site  
or per user basis depending on the bayes engine configuration.  Each  
users, by means of their feedback, would tune the importance of each  
rule applied.


Determining if you wanted to include a rule would be automatically  
determined for you based on the resulting scoring.  if you have a  
rule that has an overall historical performance of 0.499 then it's  
pretty obvious that it's incapable of Seeing your kind of spam/ 
ham.  But if you throw together a rule and run it for a week and find  
it's scoring 0.001 or 0.999 then you have evidence of how effective  
the rule is and can continue to use it.  It is conceivable that you  
could start with All known rules and later on remove all the rules  
that are nominally 0.500 to improve performance on a objective  
process.  It would also apply to any of the networked rules like  
botnet, dcc, razor because they just have a tagline and a YES/NO  
indication.


I've been working on something like this myself with great affect,  
but it would be far more practical to utilize much of the knowledge  
and capability that already exists in spamassassin.  But I'm not  
familiar enough with spamassassin to know how to gain visibility into  
all the rules run and all their results (hits are easy in  
PerMsgStatus, but misses are not).  If someone would be willing to  
give me some pointer to a roadmap of sorts it would be appreciated.


Many Thanks for those of you who have read this far for your patience  
and consideration.


Re: A different approach to scoring spamassassin hits

2007-06-29 Thread arni

Tom Allison schrieb:


Many Thanks for those of you who have read this far for your patience 
and consideration.


Sorry for only giving you such a short reply to your long and great 
post, but i have to say this now:


The proposal is brilliant and i thought about this before myself but 
never got around to put it into words.


arni


Re: A different approach to scoring spamassassin hits

2007-06-29 Thread Marc Perkel



Tom Allison wrote:
For some years now there has been a lot of effective spam filtering 
using statistical approaches with variations on Bayesian theory, some 
of these are inverse Chi Square modifications to Niave Bayes or even 
CRM114 and other languages have been developed to improve the 
scoring of statistical analysis of spam.  For all statistical 
processes the spamicity is always between 0 and 1.


Before this, and along side this, has been the approach of 
spamassassin wherein every email is evaluated against a library of 
rules and for each rule and number of points is assigned to it.  Given 
enough points, the email is ham/spam.  To accomodate the Bayesian 
process, SA was modified with a Bayes engine and the ability to add 
points depending on where the bayesian score fell (.85, .95...).  
And for all of these processes the score is between something negative 
and something positive depending on the total number of hits and the 
points assigned to them.


It occurred to me that this process of assigning points to each HIT 
(either addition or subtraction of points) is slightly arbitrary.  
There is a long process of evaluating for the most effective score 
for each rule and then providing that as the default.  The Mail Admin 
has the option to retune these various parameters as needed.  To me, 
this looks like a lot of knobs I can turn on a very complex machine I 
will probably never really understand.  In short, if I touch it, I 
will break it.  But the arbitrary part of the process is this manual 
balancing act between how many points to apply to something and 
getting the call from the CEO about his over abundance of east 
european teenage solicitors (or lack thereof).


The thought I had, and have been working on for a while, is changing 
how the scoring is done.  Rather than making Bayes a part of the 
scoring process, make the scoring process a part of the Bayes 
statistical Engine.  As an example you would simply feed into the 
Bayesian process, as tokens, the indications of scoring hits (binary 
yes/no) would be examined next to the other tokens in the message.


It would be the Bayes process that determines the effective number of 
points you assign for each HIT based on what it's learned about it 
from you.  So the tags of: ADVANCE_FEE_1, ADVANCE_FEE_2 would be 
represented as a token of format:

ADVANCE_FEE_1=YES or NO
ADVANCE_FEE_2=YES or NO
and each of these tokens would then be evaluated based on your 
learning process.


An advantage of this would be the elimination of the process to 
determine the best number of points to assign or to determine if you 
even want a rule included.


Point assignments would be determined based on the statistical hits 
(number of spam, number of ham) and would be tuned between a per site 
or per user basis depending on the bayes engine configuration.  Each 
users, by means of their feedback, would tune the importance of each 
rule applied.


Determining if you wanted to include a rule would be automatically 
determined for you based on the resulting scoring.  if you have a rule 
that has an overall historical performance of 0.499 then it's pretty 
obvious that it's incapable of Seeing your kind of spam/ham.  But if 
you throw together a rule and run it for a week and find it's scoring 
0.001 or 0.999 then you have evidence of how effective the rule is and 
can continue to use it.  It is conceivable that you could start with 
All known rules and later on remove all the rules that are nominally 
0.500 to improve performance on a objective process.  It would also 
apply to any of the networked rules like botnet, dcc, razor because 
they just have a tagline and a YES/NO indication.


I've been working on something like this myself with great affect, but 
it would be far more practical to utilize much of the knowledge and 
capability that already exists in spamassassin.  But I'm not familiar 
enough with spamassassin to know how to gain visibility into all the 
rules run and all their results (hits are easy in PerMsgStatus, but 
misses are not).  If someone would be willing to give me some pointer 
to a roadmap of sorts it would be appreciated.


Many Thanks for those of you who have read this far for your patience 
and consideration.


Tom, I suggested something somilar to that years ago and I'd still like 
to see it tried out. I wonder what would happen if you stripped ot the 
body and ran bayes just on the headers and the rules and let bayes 
figure it out. You do have to have some points to start with to get 
bayes pointed in the right direction. But you could use black lists and 
white lists to do bayes training. Also needs more rules to identify ham 
and not just rules to identify spam.