Re: [Vo]:the link to Alain's essay
Axil Axil wrote: > The systems that have developed over the centuries cannot be overturned in > a shocking overnight revolution of disruption. > Oh yes they can. Automobiles wiped out the horse-and-buggy trade in 22 years, between 1908 and 1930. In 1908 the buggy business was still growing by leaps and bounds. By 1930 it was moribund. Airplanes wiped out the North Atlantic ocean liner business between 1945 and 1955. Microcomputers took away nearly all mainframe and minicomputer business between 1985 and 1990. By 1990, IBM had gone from being the most powerful and profitable computer company to the brink of bankruptcy. It lost more money than any American corporation in history. The big chain bookstores crushed small bookstores in the 1990s. Ten years later, Amazon put them out of business. Meanwhile, Google is making more money than all newspapers *combined*. It has usurped the advertising business. That is why Bezos bought the Washington Post for $250 million. It was worth billions a decade ago. The Boston Globe sold for $70 million, down from $1.1 billion in 1993. Newsweek magazine sold for $1 (one dollar -- no kidding). In commerce, there are no rules. That disruptive strategy will lead to far more harm to the preservation of > the common good and the domestic tranquilly than chaotic replacement of > existing critical infrastructure. > This has never been a problem. No one cares what happened to the ocean liner docks in New York City after 1955. They rotted away. No one noticed. Infrastructure often goes from being critical to being abandoned in a few years. > > The oil fields, refineries, and gas stations must remain open for years > and decades to fill the gas tanks of our current fleet of road transport. > Probably not. Automobiles only last about 9 years on average. Gas stations are always on the edge of bankruptcy. When they lose 10% of their revenue, they will go bankrupt in droves. People with gasoline cars will have no place to refuel them. They will be forced to trade in and buy cold fusion powered cars sooner than they planned. This kind of transition speeds up in the last stages. You would have seen how that works if you had tried to get a minicomputer repaired in 1990. See: http://lenr-canr.org/acrobat/RothwellJthefuturem.pdf - Jed
Re: [Vo]:the link to Alain's essay
I'm not sure that moderation is the best way, but even if so, I think it is impossible to control the spread of LENR. LENR, once proven, even without retro-engineering, will be too easy to copy. If Defkalion and rossi protect their IP, team lik Defkalion in Africa, China, Asia, Brasil, will create clone... some mafia will create clone and some informal citizen networks will develop copies... it will be uncontrollable. If a neigbour propose me a Defkalion CHP clone for 5-10k$ I may discuss, but a small business in Africa will not discuss, to save the awful price of energy. then the incumbent will have to increase prices because they are losing clients, and finally they will push competitors... they will die in less than 10 years, whatever the government or the corps decide. At short term it may be reassuring to pretend it will be slow, you are right. but it will be a lie. LENR is not like nuclear energy, or even oil digging... it is small-sized, not hightech... it can be sold to individual at acceptable price... If you forbid it it will be like US alcohol prohibition... 2013/9/6 Axil Axil > In the long march of human affairs, gradualism and evolution have been > consistently shown to be the best strategy for orderly and prudent change. > > > The systems that have developed over the centuries cannot be overturned in > a shocking overnight revolution of disruption. That disruptive strategy > will lead to far more harm to the preservation of the common good and the > domestic tranquilly than chaotic replacement of existing critical > infrastructure. > > > The oil fields, refineries, and gas stations must remain open for years > and decades to fill the gas tanks of our current fleet of road transport. > The electric grid must remain supported for years through the bills > faithfully paid to the electric utilities by faithful rate payers. > > > The gas and oil pipelines should be gradually and slowly phased out as > demand for the products that they carry slowly decrease. > > > LENR must be presented to corporate leaders worldwide as an innovation and > technological advancement capable of providing increased margins rather > than a threat to their current interests. > > > Disorganized and chaotic revolution serves the interests, welfare and > prospects of no one, so great care and leadership must be taken to evolve > society and our energy infrastructure in a well-designed, thoughtful, and > decade’s long transitional process. > > > On Thu, Sep 5, 2013 at 2:47 PM, Peter Gluck wrote: > >> >> http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2013/09/nassim-nicholas-taleb-and-cold-fusion_5.html >> >> -- >> Dr. Peter Gluck >> Cluj, Romania >> http://egooutpeters.blogspot.com >> > >
Re: [Vo]:the link to Alain's essay
In the long march of human affairs, gradualism and evolution have been consistently shown to be the best strategy for orderly and prudent change. The systems that have developed over the centuries cannot be overturned in a shocking overnight revolution of disruption. That disruptive strategy will lead to far more harm to the preservation of the common good and the domestic tranquilly than chaotic replacement of existing critical infrastructure. The oil fields, refineries, and gas stations must remain open for years and decades to fill the gas tanks of our current fleet of road transport. The electric grid must remain supported for years through the bills faithfully paid to the electric utilities by faithful rate payers. The gas and oil pipelines should be gradually and slowly phased out as demand for the products that they carry slowly decrease. LENR must be presented to corporate leaders worldwide as an innovation and technological advancement capable of providing increased margins rather than a threat to their current interests. Disorganized and chaotic revolution serves the interests, welfare and prospects of no one, so great care and leadership must be taken to evolve society and our energy infrastructure in a well-designed, thoughtful, and decade’s long transitional process. On Thu, Sep 5, 2013 at 2:47 PM, Peter Gluck wrote: > > http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2013/09/nassim-nicholas-taleb-and-cold-fusion_5.html > > -- > Dr. Peter Gluck > Cluj, Romania > http://egooutpeters.blogspot.com >
Re: [Vo]:the link to Alain's essay
Very interesting article. Thanks.
[Vo]:the link to Alain's essay
http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2013/09/nassim-nicholas-taleb-and-cold-fusion_5.html -- Dr. Peter Gluck Cluj, Romania http://egooutpeters.blogspot.com
