[Wikidata-bugs] [Maniphest] [Commented On] T220977: Investigate surprising rise in mobile page views for wikidata

[GoranSMilovanovic]

GoranSMilovanovic added a comment.


  @Lea_WMDE Do we have any additional requirements here or shall we resolve the 
ticket?

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[Wikidata-bugs] [Maniphest] [Commented On] T220977: Investigate surprising rise in mobile page views for wikidata

[Milimetric]

Milimetric added a comment.


  To clear up what Joseph said, we're never going to have more than 90 days of 
geolocated edits for privacy reasons.  We do have two aggregated datasets that 
go back more than a year:
  
  
https://wikitech.wikimedia.org/wiki/Analytics/Data_Lake/Edits/Geoeditors#Aggregated_data

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[Wikidata-bugs] [Maniphest] [Commented On] T220977: Investigate surprising rise in mobile page views for wikidata

[GoranSMilovanovic]

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  @JAllemandou Thanks for feedback!
  
  @Lea_WMDE Given the current situation with the geo-localized edits (see 
T220977#5186818 ), do you 
want me to proceed with the per continent analysis for pageviews now, or shall 
we wait until we can encompass both the pageviews and revisions in a single 
report?

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[Wikidata-bugs] [Maniphest] [Commented On] T220977: Investigate surprising rise in mobile page views for wikidata

[Lea_WMDE]

Lea_WMDE added a comment.


  @GoranSMilovanovic great, thanks! We definitely know more now :)

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[Wikidata-bugs] [Maniphest] [Commented On] T220977: Investigate surprising rise in mobile page views for wikidata

[GoranSMilovanovic]

GoranSMilovanovic added a comment.


  @Lea_WMDE Here we go:
  
  - the following chart shows mobile edits vs. mobile pageviews separately for 
users and spiders;
  - what we can learn from this chart is that **the growth is certainly 
natural**, given that the spiders have made a minimal number of edits and 
contributed to pageviews much less than our users did;
  - the pattern of user mobile edits (left panel, blue line) seems similar to 
the pattern of user mobile pageviews (right panel, blue line), but the 
subsequent analysis has uncovered that they are in fact unrelated.
  
  F29068206: FINAL_data.png 
  
  Now, the following chart shows us the monthly percent change in the growth of 
edits and pageviews, for users only:
  
  F29068229: FINAL_percentChange.png 

  
  - To help understand it, the percents in the chart are: `(count in the 
current month - count in the previous month)`/`count in the current 
month`*`100`.
  - Now we see that the growth in user mobile pageviews and the growth in the 
user mobile edits **are not really correlated**.
  - In order to reject the hypothesis that the two time-series (i.e. % growth 
of pageviews and % growth of edits) are correlated, both time-series were first 
differentiated (`lag = 1`), and then both Pearson and Spearman's correlation 
coefficient were assessed; neither reached statistical significance (which in 
effect means that from the viewpoint of classical statistics the correlation 
does not exit).
  - Caveat: we have only six (6) observations, so the sample is questionable.
  
  > And is it possible for us to roughly group this data by where people come 
from and if we see a significant increase for a specific region of the world?
  
  I can certainly do that for the pageviews (there are handy fields in the 
`Projectview hourly` Hive table like `continent` and `country_code`), but I am 
not sure if I have the data to do it for revisions. @JAllemandou ?

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[Wikidata-bugs] [Maniphest] [Commented On] T220977: Investigate surprising rise in mobile page views for wikidata

[Lea_WMDE]

Lea_WMDE added a comment.


  @GoranSMilovanovic that's great! If we compare the percentage increases (I 
don't know how this is done best statistically, but I'm sure you do :) ), do we 
get a similar trend between mobile edits and mobile page views?
  And is it possible for us to roughly group this data by where people come 
from and if we see a significant increase for a specific region of the world?

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[Wikidata-bugs] [Maniphest] [Commented On] T220977: Investigate surprising rise in mobile page views for wikidata

[GoranSMilovanovic]

GoranSMilovanovic added a comment.


  @Lea_WMDE Yes, we do have a more or less steady increase in mobile edits on 
Wikidata:
  
  F29055561: MobileEdits_2019.png 

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[Wikidata-bugs] [Maniphest] [Commented On] T220977: Investigate surprising rise in mobile page views for wikidata

[GoranSMilovanovic]

GoranSMilovanovic added a comment.


  @Lea_WMDE Here's what was happening with the mobile edits since the beginning 
of the year. Note: the last data point is May 2019, it's incomplete of course.
  
  F29055381: MobileEdits_2019.png 
  
  I've run this as a test only; I will now run a query to gather both 2018 and 
2019 data.

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[Wikidata-bugs] [Maniphest] [Commented On] T220977: Investigate surprising rise in mobile page views for wikidata

[Lea_WMDE]

Lea_WMDE added a comment.


  Thanks, @JAllemandou!

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[Wikidata-bugs] [Maniphest] [Commented On] T220977: Investigate surprising rise in mobile page views for wikidata

[GoranSMilovanovic]

GoranSMilovanovic added a comment.


  @JAllemandou You're the man, I see now 

 that `revision_tags` is a new field since the `2019-04` (April 2019) snapshot 
of `mediawiki_history`:
  
  > revision_tags   array   In revision events: Tags associated to 
the revision
  
  However, the description in the documentation 

 "//...Tags associated to the revision//" does not translate to "//edits made 
from mobile, mobile app, desktop, etc//" amazingly well :)
  
  @Lea_WMDE I'm on it.

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[Wikidata-bugs] [Maniphest] [Commented On] T220977: Investigate surprising rise in mobile page views for wikidata

[JAllemandou]

JAllemandou added a comment.


  Hi @Lea_WMDE and @GoranSMilovanovic - I think the answer the your problem is 
solved in this month snapshot with the `revision_tags` field of 
mediawiki_history:
  
spark.sql("""
SELECT
substr(event_timestamp, 0, 4) as year,
array_contains(revision_tags, 'mobile edit') as mobile,
array_contains(revision_tags, 'mobile app edit')  as mobile_app,
count(1) as c
FROM wmf.mediawiki_history
WHERE snapshot = '2019-04'
AND wiki_db = 'wikidatawiki'
AND event_entity = 'revision'
GROUP BY
substr(event_timestamp, 0, 4),
array_contains(revision_tags, 'mobile edit'),
array_contains(revision_tags, 'mobile app edit')
ORDER BY year, mobile, mobile_app desc
""").show(100, false)

++--+--+-+  

|year|mobile|mobile_app|c|
++--+--+-+
|2004|null  |null  |146  |
|2005|null  |null  |495  |
|2006|null  |null  |1838 |
|2007|null  |null  |2814 |
|2008|null  |null  |2384 |
|2009|null  |null  |2175 |
|2010|null  |null  |1650 |
|2011|null  |null  |1354 |
|2012|null  |null  |2912961  |
|2012|false |false |4|
|2013|null  |null  |94142292 |
|2013|false |false |181133   |
|2014|null  |null  |69236941 |
|2014|false |true  |2|
|2014|false |false |18174243 |
|2014|true  |false |51   |
|2015|null  |null  |76088107 |
|2015|false |true  |586  |
|2015|false |false |26269493 |
|2015|true  |false |4058 |
|2016|null  |null  |82178134 |
|2016|false |false |53308675 |
|2016|true  |true  |618  |
|2016|true  |false |24248|
|2017|null  |null  |109041593|
|2017|false |false |83147234 |
|2017|true  |true  |114906   |
|2017|true  |false |49836|
|2018|null  |null  |141536855|
|2018|false |false |67149958 |
|2018|true  |true  |186065   |
|2018|true  |false |71822|
|2019|null  |null  |55814156 |
|2019|false |false |49994060 |
|2019|true  |true  |85968|
|2019|true  |false |23867|
++--+--+-+

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[Wikidata-bugs] [Maniphest] [Commented On] T220977: Investigate surprising rise in mobile page views for wikidata

[GoranSMilovanovic]

GoranSMilovanovic added a comment.


  @Lea_WMDE from Analytics/Data Lake/Edits 
 Wikitech 
documentation page:
  
  > When we import, we grab all the data available from all tables except the 
revision table, for which we filter by where rev_timestamp <= <>
  
  In other words, everything we have on user edits in the Data Lake is a copy 
of what we have in the traditional (SQL) MediaWiki `revision` tables per 
project, and we have no field that determines whether a revision was made from 
mobile or desktop there.
  
  So, I would be surprised to learn that we can distinguish mobile from desktop 
edits in any project, not just Wikidata.

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[Wikidata-bugs] [Maniphest] [Commented On] T220977: Investigate surprising rise in mobile page views for wikidata

[GoranSMilovanovic]

GoranSMilovanovic added a comment.


  @Lea_WMDE @RazShuty
  
  Another possibility would be to parse the X-Analytics 
 field of the `wmf.webrequest` 
table and look into the values of the `mf-m` key:
  
If set, then the value b indicates that the user is opted into the beta 
mode (of the mobile site) (mf-m=b), the value amc indicates Advanced Mobile 
Contributions (mf-m=amc), and b,amc indicates both (mf-m=b,amc). See 
MobileContext.php.
  
  If someone can help me decide if **Advanced Mobile Contributions (amc)** - 
which seem to be tracked in this field of the `wmf.webrequests` table - 
indicate mobile user edits, then we have our data.

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[Wikidata-bugs] [Maniphest] [Commented On] T220977: Investigate surprising rise in mobile page views for wikidata

[GoranSMilovanovic]

GoranSMilovanovic added a comment.


  @Lea_WMDE
  
  Unfortunately, our edits data 
 currently do 
not encompass any fields that would allow us to separate edits made from mobile 
vs. desktop.

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[Wikidata-bugs] [Maniphest] [Commented On] T220977: Investigate surprising rise in mobile page views for wikidata

[GoranSMilovanovic]

GoranSMilovanovic added a comment.


  @Lea_WMDE
  
  > If the growth is natural, would it be a valid assumption to assume that the 
editing behavior for mobile also increased?
  
  Inspecting this now.

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[Wikidata-bugs] [Maniphest] [Commented On] T220977: Investigate surprising rise in mobile page views for wikidata

[Lea_WMDE]

Lea_WMDE added a comment.


  @GoranSMilovanovic thanks for all the insights! One thing that came to my 
mind is the following: If the growth is natural, would it be a valid assumption 
to assume that the editing behavior for mobile also increased? I don't think I 
can find out through the stats tool whether the number of edits increased on 
mobile. Would it be possible for you to find out if the number of edits on 
mobile increased similarly (percentage wise) as desktop in the past year?

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[Wikidata-bugs] [Maniphest] [Commented On] T220977: Investigate surprising rise in mobile page views for wikidata

[GoranSMilovanovic]

GoranSMilovanovic added a comment.


  @Lea_WMDE @RazShuty
  
  I have inspected all mobile pageviews of Wikidata for April 2019.
  
  April 2019 is quite representative for the phenomenon that we are 
investigating: since the sudden increase in Wikidata mobile pageviews, only in 
January 2019 there were more of them than in April 2019. And since the data in 
`wmf.webrequest` are purged after 90 days, April 2019 seems to be the best 
sample we have.
  
  By looking at the distribution of pageviews per `user_agent` field, I cannot 
see anything strange:
  
  F28894698: April2019_user_agent_WDmobilePageviews.png 

  
  The chart show the top 40 `user_agent` fields in respect of how many 
pageviews were generated by the respective requests. This top 40 encompass 
1,816,990 out of 14,703,421 (or: 12,36% approx.) of the mobile pageviews of 
Wikidata in April 2019.
  
  By checking the this dataset for consistency (again, the origin is the 
wmf.webrequest 
 
table) against Wikistats 
(https://stats.wikimedia.org/v2/#/wikidata.org/reading/total-page-views/normal|bar|1-Year|access~mobile-web)
 we find that they match perfectly; so the technical procedures are in place.
  
  Basing on what I see in our datasets, I would say this growth is natural. 
**However** let me remind you that my understanding of what can happen in the 
`user_agent` field is certainly imperfect. My conclusion is drawn on what I see 
in the dataset //prima facie//.
  
  @Lea_WMDE Please advise on the next steps. I can repeat the analysis for 
March 2019 and February 2019 if deemed necessary.

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[Wikidata-bugs] [Maniphest] [Commented On] T220977: Investigate surprising rise in mobile page views for wikidata

[GoranSMilovanovic]

GoranSMilovanovic added a comment.


  @Lea_WMDE @RazShuty
  
  It's definitely not Googlebot (Smartphone), I've checked the `wmf.webrequest` 
for a sample:
  
# - wmf.webrequest dataset: parse user_agent
df = sqlContext.sql('SELECT year, month, day, hour, user_agent, agent_type, 
is_pageview FROM wmf.webrequest \
WHERE (year = 2019 AND month = 3 AND day = 10 AND 
hour = 1 AND \
normalized_host.project_family = "wikidata" AND 
is_pageview = True)')

df.cache()
df.head(10)
  
  results in:
  
[Row(year=2019, month=3, day=10, hour=1, user_agent='Mozilla/5.0 (Linux; 
Android 6.0.1; Nexus 5X Build/MMB29P) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) 
Chrome/41.0.2272.96 Mobile Safari/537.36 (compatible; Googlebot/2.1; 
+http://www.google.com/bot.html)', agent_type='spider', is_pageview=True),
 Row(year=2019, month=3, day=10, hour=1, user_agent='Mozilla/5.0 (Linux; 
Android 6.0.1; Nexus 5X Build/MMB29P) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) 
Chrome/41.0.2272.96 Mobile Safari/537.36 (compatible; Googlebot/2.1; 
+http://www.google.com/bot.html)', agent_type='spider', is_pageview=True),
 Row(year=2019, month=3, day=10, hour=1, user_agent='Mozilla/5.0 (Linux; 
Android 6.0.1; Nexus 5X Build/MMB29P) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) 
Chrome/41.0.2272.96 Mobile Safari/537.36 (compatible; Googlebot/2.1; 
+http://www.google.com/bot.html)', agent_type='spider', is_pageview=True),
 Row(year=2019, month=3, day=10, hour=1, user_agent='Mozilla/5.0 (Linux; 
Android 6.0.1; Nexus 5X Build/MMB29P) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) 
Chrome/41.0.2272.96 Mobile Safari/537.36 (compatible; Googlebot/2.1; 
+http://www.google.com/bot.html)', agent_type='spider', is_pageview=True),
 Row(year=2019, month=3, day=10, hour=1, user_agent='Mozilla/5.0 (Windows 
NT 10; WOW64; rv:61.0) Gecko/20100101 Firefox/61.0', agent_type='user', 
is_pageview=True),
 Row(year=2019, month=3, day=10, hour=1, user_agent='Mozilla/5.0 (Linux; 
Android 6.0.1; Nexus 5X Build/MMB29P) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) 
Chrome/41.0.2272.96 Mobile Safari/537.36 (compatible; Googlebot/2.1; 
+http://www.google.com/bot.html)', agent_type='spider', is_pageview=True),
 Row(year=2019, month=3, day=10, hour=1, user_agent='Mozilla/5.0 (Linux; 
Android 6.0.1; Nexus 5X Build/MMB29P) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) 
Chrome/41.0.2272.96 Mobile Safari/537.36 (compatible; Googlebot/2.1; 
+http://www.google.com/bot.html)', agent_type='spider', is_pageview=True),
 Row(year=2019, month=3, day=10, hour=1, user_agent='Mozilla/5.0 (Linux; 
Android 6.0.1; Nexus 5X Build/MMB29P) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) 
Chrome/41.0.2272.96 Mobile Safari/537.36 (compatible; Googlebot/2.1; 
+http://www.google.com/bot.html)', agent_type='spider', is_pageview=True),
 Row(year=2019, month=3, day=10, hour=1, user_agent='Mozilla/5.0 (Linux; 
Android 6.0.1; Nexus 5X Build/MMB29P) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) 
Chrome/41.0.2272.96 Mobile Safari/537.36 (compatible; Googlebot/2.1; 
+http://www.google.com/bot.html)', agent_type='spider', is_pageview=True),
 Row(year=2019, month=3, day=10, hour=1, user_agent='Mozilla/5.0 (Linux; 
Android 6.0.1; Nexus 5X Build/MMB29P) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) 
Chrome/41.0.2272.96 Mobile Safari/537.36 (compatible; Googlebot/2.1; 
+http://www.google.com/bot.html)', agent_type='spider', is_pageview=True)]
  
  so Googlebot (Smartphone) is recognized as a spider indeed.

TASK DETAIL
  https://phabricator.wikimedia.org/T220977

EMAIL PREFERENCES
  https://phabricator.wikimedia.org/settings/panel/emailpreferences/

To: GoranSMilovanovic
Cc: RazShuty, Lea_WMDE, Aklapper, alaa_wmde, Nandana, Lahi, Gq86, 
GoranSMilovanovic, QZanden, LawExplorer, _jensen, rosalieper, Wikidata-bugs, 
aude, Mbch331
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