Brian,
Does 30%PA stands for Annual Parcentage Gain ?
thanks
--- In amibroker@yahoogroups.com, brian_z111 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
Bill,
I am happy to take 30%PA anyday and anyone who consistently gets
that, anyway at all, is a qualified trader in my eyes (respect to
them).
My own
PA = per annum
--- In amibroker@yahoogroups.com, reinsley [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
Brian,
Does 30%PA stands for Annual Parcentage Gain ?
thanks
--- In amibroker@yahoogroups.com, brian_z111 brian_z111@ wrote:
Bill,
I am happy to take 30%PA anyday and anyone who consistently
.
Bill
- Original Message -
From: brian_z111
To: amibroker@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Thursday, May 08, 2008 7:54 PM
Subject: [amibroker] Re: Jake Bernstein Momentum formula
As Yuki said, they are both right, but not at the same time.
The company, and dicussion, around the coffee
: Jake Bernstein Momentum formula
w As Yuki said, they are both right, but not at the same time.
w The company, and dicussion, around the coffee table is good but as
w Ralph Vince said trading is not an intellectual exercise, it is more
w like a street fight.
w Forget right or wrong
So, nothing is for sure.
And you're sure of that?!!
- Original Message
From: kailash pareek [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: amibroker@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Friday, 9 May, 2008 2:03:59 PM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Jake Bernstein Momentum formula
Well, i love arguments. because it gives us
: [amibroker] Re: Jake Bernstein Momentum formula
As Yuki said, they are both right, but not at the same time.
The company, and dicussion, around the coffee table is good but as
Ralph Vince said trading is not an intellectual exercise, it is more
like a street fight.
Forget right
Greetings all --
Kailash wrote Well, nothing is for sure here. you see u optimized 10 years
data and there was only 3 conse.. looser trade. Now think u start trading
and those three trades r ur 1st 3 trades. u loose n lost confidence.
First, just a comment on protocol. Please feel free to write
Sent: Saturday, May 10, 2008 1:56:16 AM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Jake Bernstein Momentum formula
Greetings all --
Kailash wrote Well, nothing is for sure here. you see u optimized 10 years
data and there was only 3 conse.. looser trade. Now think u start trading and
those three trades r ur
If one does not have agility and emotional fortitude, then he/she better stick
with support and resistance.
- Original Message
From: scourt2000 [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: amibroker@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Thursday, May 8, 2008 10:50:32 AM
Subject: [amibroker] Re: Jake Bernstein Momentum
It depends on your own psychology. Whether you believe in mean
reversion, or whether you believe price is a train, and how strongly,
will dictate what is easier for you.
This is the basic dichotomy: mean-reversionists versus price is a
train people.
And of course both are right; just never at
Yuki,
Surprized that you of all people left out the third way (the darkest
moment of the night is the seminal birth of the dawn (from
Conficianism or the Tao?)
So, for reversion to mean traders, at the point where this ceases to
be a 'trend reversion' and becomes instead a 'trend reversal'
20 - (- 9.3_ == approx delta 30% PA in my books.
Thanks Yuki for confirming this.
Now I don't have to post a 30% system (as I promised Louis) to prove
my benchmark is correct.
Actually I agree with both you and Steve (the real problem is
semantics since IMO close analysis would show that most
I will stick to my prediction that around 30%PA EOD trading is a
limit for indicators that use lookback periods and that to achieve
more than this requires a different approach (as I say you are both
correct except I believe that Steve is talking about 30%PA returns).
Is this just your opinion or
It's just an opinion, but it is based on observation.
I'm referring to systems designed by optimising lookback periods.
I'm happy to be proved wrong ...so you are saying we can achieve
better than 30-40%PA, on long term average (through various market
cycles) using 'optimisation of lookback
Hi Brian and everyone,
What exactly do you mean by optimisation of lookback period?
I had a lot of fun reading this thread. I wonder what is better:
support/resistance breakout or reversion to mean. Worked with both; don't
know yet what works better. I've seen people been sure of their
If your trading system rules are based on things like buy when the
short term moving ave crosses the long term moving ave.
The MA is looking back so many periods to make its calculation e.g. MA
(C,15) is looking back 15 periods.
If you test a range of MA periods, to select your best MA
Thanks Brian. Indeed, that looks like prehistoric stuff...
BTW, what is your opinion about the S/R breakout vs reversion to mean
debate?
Thanks,
Louis
2008/5/8 brian_z111 [EMAIL PROTECTED]:
If your trading system rules are based on things like buy when the
short term moving ave crosses
I'm referring to systems designed by optimising lookback periods.
Let me start by saying I am primarily a discretionary trader and I
don't do much in the way of optimizing, I consider it curve fitting.
When your data set changes character your optimization breaks down.
Using a fixed look back
I wonder what is better: support/resistance breakout or reversion to
mean.
There is no better, just different.
Let me 1st define what S/R means to me, it is a place where prices
have previously stopped and reversed direction. S/R points frequently
get retested. They are not exact numbers, over
As Yuki said, they are both right, but not at the same time.
The company, and dicussion, around the coffee table is good but as
Ralph Vince said trading is not an intellectual exercise, it is more
like a street fight.
Forget right or wrong - get in there and beat the heck out of every
Bill,
I am happy to take 30%PA anyday and anyone who consistently gets
that, anyway at all, is a qualified trader in my eyes (respect to
them).
My own favourite style is more aligned to yours, except I am not
discretionary.
Yes, I am interested in the alingment of cycles across timeframes (I
Thirty percent a year, compounded, is an incredible wealth-generating
rate of return. It doubles money every 2.4 years. Starting with
just US$50K, you'd have more than 800K in a decade. Needless to say,
if you could continue just a handful of more years at that rate ...
It is a rate of return
Anthony,
Do yourself a big favor. Don't waste your precious time on this
earth with this kind of drivel. Chasing price with momentum
indicators is not going to get you where you want to be.
Coming up with a support/resistance system is all you need to make
whatever you want from the
Gee, then I guess I should give back my ~20 percent a year that is
largely based on short-term momentum swings, yes? (I'm sitting plus
13 percent YTD this year already, as of yesterday, versus -9.3
percent for my Nikkei 225 benchmark.)
You do have to be agile however. And you cannot overstay
size fits all situation.
Bill
- Original Message -
From: scourt2000
To: amibroker@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Wednesday, May 07, 2008 10:50 PM
Subject: [amibroker] Re: Jake Bernstein Momentum formula
Anthony,
Do yourself a big favor. Don't waste your precious time
Which is more psychologically threatening?
1. Catching a train by running with it and hopping on board?
or
2. Standing in front of the train and hoping it stops to allow you on
board, knowing very well that you could be on the wrong part of the
track and it runs you over instead?
#1
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