JDG wrote:
>
> As for a Civil War, I definitely think that the inequality, militarism, and
> totalitarianism of the Chinese State do make a Civil War much more likely
> in China than in India.
>
/me too.
And the current oil crisis is specially critic to China - which some
Machievellic minds think
to be gained by a cross-border incursion to wipe out terrorist
training camps offset the risks of such an incursion.
As for a Civil War, that again is in the realm of the highly unlikely - but
this was a discussion of the "next superpower" after all, which is itself
highly unlikely in the
JDG wrote:
> In terms of China running into potential instability
> vis-a-vis a Civil War or Taiwan, the risks of this strike me
> as on balance only marginally greater than the potential
> risks of India running into instability
> vis-a-vis a Civil War of their own, or else a
> Pakistan-Kash
> Wellington famously commented, I think after
> Talavera
> (but I'm sure Damon will correct me), "There is
> nothing so sad as a battle won, except a battle
> lost."
Ah, no I don't know diddly about the Napoleonic Wars.
My interest in MilHist stops around 1525 and doesn't
pick up again until aro
--- Alberto Monteiro <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> The Caliphate was not a Global Superpower; they
> ruled over a small
> part of the world, and they had major defeats to
> _minor_ powers in
> both the eastern and western front.
>
> But I would replace Spain by "The Habsburgs" - it
> was when Spain
Richard Baker wrote:
>
>> Essentially, I don't see oil as being a sufficient foundation for
>> becoming a "superpower."Certainly, the relative power of a
>> given Arab State could increase from what it is now, but again,
>> nothing approaching that of Greece, Rome, Mongolia, Spain, France,
>> G
At 10:35 PM 8/28/2004 -0500 Dan Minette wrote:
>> In terms of potential next superpowers, the only real possibilities I
>could
>> see are:
>>
>> 1) China
>> 2) India
>> 3) United States of Europe
>
>We talked about that. I'd rank it
>
>1) India
>2) China
>3) An Arab superpower
>4) USE.
>
>We switc
At 03:06 PM 8/29/2004 -0500 Dan Minette wrote:
>> >we could alliances with Islamic republics in Iraq and Iran, putting
> ^^^
> see
>
>> >pressure on the UAE.
>>
>> Perhaps you want to rephrase that?
>
>Sorry,
Ah I think that I gather what you are saying... you
- Original Message -
From: "JDG" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: "Killer Bs Discussion" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Sent: Sunday, August 29, 2004 2:02 PM
Subject: Re: The Next Superpower Re: AIDs in Africa
> At 10:39 PM 8/28/2004 -0500 Dan Minette wrote:
> &
At 10:39 PM 8/28/2004 -0500 Dan Minette wrote:
>> An Arab superpower can happen. If a reasonable worst case scenero
>occurs,
>> we'll have a government run by AQ or AQ fellow travelers in SA. With ~400
>> million a day in gross oil revenues, a lot can happen with that money.
>> They should be able
- Original Message -
From: "Dan Minette" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: "Killer Bs Discussion" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Sent: Saturday, August 28, 2004 10:35 PM
Subject: Re: The Next Superpower Re: AIDs in Africa
>
> - Original Message -
> From: &
- Original Message -
From: "JDG" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: "Killer Bs Discussion" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Sent: Saturday, August 28, 2004 9:26 PM
Subject: The Next Superpower Re: AIDs in Africa
> At 09:03 PM 8/28/2004 -0500 Dan Minette wrote:
> >O
At 09:03 PM 8/28/2004 -0500 Dan Minette wrote:
>One interesting thing on the way home...we were speculating on who the next
>superpower might be. She said that the US has done plenty of things wrong,
>but she shudders to think of the other candidates taking over as the
>biggest powe
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