Re: [ERPS] Re: Too Late to duck

2002-06-25 Thread Randall Clague
On Tue, 25 Jun 2002 11:14:37 -0500 (CDT), "Douglas E. Drummond" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >On the subject of detecting rocks that we can't deflect, >has anyone considered that detecting the rock just before >it hits could prevent WW-3? A rock hitting a city is >very much like a Nuke; therefore

[ERPS] Re: Too Late to duck

2002-06-25 Thread Douglas E. Drummond
On the subject of detecting rocks that we can't deflect, has anyone considered that detecting the rock just before it hits could prevent WW-3? A rock hitting a city is very much like a Nuke; therefore a trigger-happy country might launch now (use 'em or lose 'em) and questions later. I realize

Re: [ERPS] Re: Too Late to Duck

2002-06-22 Thread cpwinter
Gerald, Thanks much for the URL. I've copied the contents and will be "gussying it up" for printing. I feel this material is important enough to put on our CD-ROM _and_ to make available in hard-copy form. And, hey -- it's in the public domain. BTW: I was a little depressed by C

Re: [ERPS] Re: Too Late to Duck

2002-06-21 Thread Henry Spencer
On Fri, 21 Jun 2002, The Silent Observer wrote: > If we presume that impacts are chondrite asteroidal bodies, and that > most such are composed as "gravel piles" akin to the one examined by the > recent NEAR mission, we might expect this to be the norm for impacts in > this size range... Eros, wh

Re: [ERPS] Re: Too Late to Duck

2002-06-21 Thread The Silent Observer
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: > > If I believe it, a Tunguska-sized body should > actually hit us every century or so, about a 1% chance each year. That may not be all that far fetched. First, note that the Tunguska site has never yielded any significant debris from the impactor -- modeling of the e

[ERPS] Re: Too Late to Duck

2002-06-21 Thread GDNordley
Gentlefolk, I grabbed a graph off the web << http://www.au.af.mil/au/2025/volume3/chap16/v3c16-1.htm#The Threat>> and traced it in ASCII below. If I believe it, a Tunguska-sized body should actually hit us every century or so, about a 1% chance each year. At a miss distance of rmin = 120,000