[FRIAM] The Mathematics of Predicting the Course of the Coronavirus | WIRED

A good read on modeling for friends and family who might not be familiar with the concepts and process. I don't think it is behind a pay wall. TJ https://www.wired.com/story/the-mathematics-of-predicting-the-course-of-the-coronavirus/ F

Re: [FRIAM] Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx

So this article looks like it points to interesting data: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/health/coronavirus-restrictions-fevers.html The limitation there will be representativeness of the sample, since there will

Re: [FRIAM] Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx

Isn't the Santa Fe Toilet-Paper Orgy theory still alive? N Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University thompnicks...@gmail.com https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ -Original Message- From: Friam On Behalf Of Steven A Smith Sent: Monday, March

Re: [FRIAM] Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx

Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University thompnicks...@gmail.com https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ -Original Message- From: Friam On Behalf Of Steven A Smith Sent: Monday, March 30, 2020 5:19 PM To: friam@redfish.com Subject: Re: [FRIAM]

Re: [FRIAM] Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx

This is of interest/value to the Epidemic Intelligence work going on at SimTable/Redfish...   our scope is technically just NM and are parsing the same file, but would always be thankful for any automated data sources as they come available... On 3/30/20 5:02 PM, uǝlƃ ☣ wrote: > Excellent! Please

Re: [FRIAM] Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx

Excellent! Please keep us (or just me, if nobody else cares) updated on if/how they accept help. If there's any way I can help you help them, I will. My Ruby is limited to some playing with the core language back with 1.8 or 1.9, I think. I had no idea "Mechanize" even existed. On 3/30/20 2:02

Re: [FRIAM] Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx

Glen, They may have some thoughts on how they would like to integrate scraped data into their platform. I just sent them the code and will wait for a reply. It might be fun to flesh out scrapers for the other 49 :) Jon FRIAM Applied Com

Re: [FRIAM] Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx

Yes, I understand. The TODO item, here implies that they may welcome your Ruby snippet for NM. The question is how to fold it into their workflow. On 3/30/20 1:25 PM, Jon Zingale wrote: > I imagine, without looking for it explicitly in the cod

Re: [FRIAM] Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx

Glen, I imagine, without looking for it explicitly in the code, they find a `best site at the time` for each state, NM for instance: Best current data source for New Mexico. While it may take 15 minutes or so for a programmer to write a scraper for a state, the hours li

Re: [FRIAM] Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx

Very nice! Does the following indicate they're processing several sites, whose formats may differ? https://github.com/COVID19Tracking/covid-tracking/blob/master/urls.yaml On 3/30/20 12:51 PM, Jon Zingale wrote: > Perhaps you are right and I should be more helpful. > Here are the 20 lines >

Re: [FRIAM] Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx

Glen, Perhaps you are right and I should be more helpful. Here are the 20 lines . Jon FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11

Re: [FRIAM] idle questions while in self-quarantine

Steve and Dave Having interacted and participated in earlier versions of Tyringham back in the 70's (when I was a mere child)--memorable gatherings at Hazel Henderson's place in Princeton, and later Lindisfarne meetings--I decided that nothing much was going to happen after these exciting meetings

Re: [FRIAM] Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx

I'll trust your criticism. But the perfect shouldn't be the enemy of the good. If this was the best/first way for them to act, then I wouldn't be too hard on them. If you attempt to help and they get all defensive, then "No Quarter". 8^) But semi-auto isn't half-assed in the general sense. I thi

Re: [FRIAM] idle questions while in self-quarantine

But there really are no stupid questions. An answer like "you're not allowed to ask" doesn't help. A better answer would be an explanation of undefined terms and how they impact the body of theory. A good example is division by 0. We're taught (in what? elementary school?) that the sentence c/0

Re: [FRIAM] Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx

Semi-auto is a little like half assed. For what would get the data directly to database or even a csv file in 5 lines, there is a whole lot of node infrastructure setup to take screenshots and post to s3 buckets. And for there to be 27 contributors, the project appears like it could use some direct

Re: [FRIAM] idle questions while in self-quarantine

Dave - Your list of idle questions represents *quite a span*. And I thought *I* was prone to flying off (thinking about and sharing) in all directions at once! There is at least one "great american novel" in there... and maybe a few alternate histories or closer to Gibson's recent pair (Peripher

Re: [FRIAM] idle questions while in self-quarantine

thanks, that brought back a conversation I had with him on this topic. It has to do with frames of reference being relative. Absent a universal constant frame of reference, you cannot ask "from whence" or "where to" in any meaningful way. davew On Mon, Mar 30, 2020, at 12:44 PM, Frank Wimberl

Re: [FRIAM] confirmation bias sandbox

I think there is a third factor - the means by which people acquire misinformation. For example, a statement from the first article Glen cited: "The President of the United States insists that hydroxychloroquine, a drug often used to treat malaria, is a real “game changer” for COVID-19 and has

Re: [FRIAM] idle questions while in self-quarantine

Cosmology: globally speaking, everything is moving away from everything else. I asked Hywel can't you extrapolate backwards and determine the location of the "big bang". He said, "You're not allowed to ask that question". Is/was he an anti-realist? --- Frank C. Wimberly 505 670-9918 Santa Fe,

[FRIAM] idle questions while in self-quarantine

After two weeks in isolation in Holland, I returned to the U.S. Friday for two more weeks of isolation on the mountain in Utah. Because of possible exposure while traveling will get tested tomorrow or Wednesday - give the bug a chance to become detectable. Still convinced there is far less to fe

[FRIAM] confirmation bias sandbox

So, I try to be on the lookout for my triggers that are said to contribute to the spread of misinformation [†]. So, when I find 2 seemingly good arguments with conflicting reasoning and conclusions, it's an opportunity to test my bias. The first one attributes the spread of misinfo to scientific

Re: [FRIAM] Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx

Don't they already do it semi-auto? https://github.com/COVID19Tracking/covid-data-pipeline On 3/30/20 9:50 AM, Jon Zingale wrote: > It appears from the code base that covidtracking.com > > is pulling the data via screenshots and then manually > entering the data. Is th

Re: [FRIAM] Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx

It appears from the code base that covidtracking.com is pulling the data via screenshots and then manually entering the data. Is this possible? Do you think they might want a scraper for that project? FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listse

Re: [FRIAM] Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx

But it suggests an interesting hypothesis: the number of cases in Torrance County is the derivative of the number of cases in the state of New Mexico. --- Frank C. Wimberly 505 670-9918 Santa Fe, NM On Mon, Mar 30, 2020, 7:02 AM Frank Wimberly wrote: > The column i added was simply the differen

Re: [FRIAM] Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx

The column i added was simply the differences between adjacent cells of the previous column. That is, the discrete estimate of the time derivative. --- Frank C. Wimberly 505 670-9918 Santa Fe, NM On Mon, Mar 30, 2020, 6:27 AM Roger Critchlow wrote: > The column you added appears to be State-Co

Re: [FRIAM] Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx

The column you added appears to be State-County. Maybe you grabbed the wrong spreadsheet? -- rec -- On Sun, Mar 29, 2020 at 8:17 PM Frank Wimberly wrote: > The column I added indicates that the derivative is increasing. > > --- > Frank C. Wimberly > 505 670-9918 > Santa Fe, NM > > On Sun, Mar