Re: [FRIAM] COVID19 R(t) for each state over time.

It seems like estimating/tracking R(t) is key to re-opening (LIBERATE!) strategies. > This just in via Josh Thorpe. > > I've been wondering if anyone had a methodology for calculating the > COVID19 R /Replication Number./ > > https://rt.live/ > > apparently adapted from our own (LANL) Luis Be

[FRIAM] COVID19 R(t) for each state over time.

This just in via Josh Thorpe. I've been wondering if anyone had a methodology for calculating the COVID19 R /Replication Number./ https://rt.live/ apparently adapted from our own (LANL) Luis Bettencourt's work on H5N1 using a Bayesian approach https://github.com/k-sys/covid-19/blob/mast

Re: [FRIAM] whackadoodles go mainstream!

This was my read, too, Roger, exactly. He is willing to make a call that he doesn’t think protein designers are sophisticated enough to solve that complicated a problem that cleanly, yet he thinks it is not improbable in large, diverse-population evolutionary dynamics. I have a friend who once

Re: [FRIAM] whackadoodles go mainstream!

Well, bullshit is different from both purposeful deception or wrongheaded justification (following Frankfurt's argument in "On Bullshit"). And I'd argue that not all bullshitters are purposeful. E.g. I think Trump's *mostly* an accidental bullshitter ... if he wasn't born with money, he'd be jus

Re: [FRIAM] IS: "...useful". WAS:: whackadoodles go mainstream!

Steve, Many things are stable about Peirce -- if only his ferocious dedication to inquiry. But for many of his later years, he was destitute and dependent on the kindness of others for his survival. So, he is this cantankerous guy, who, none the less, has to at least TRY to fit in in order t

Re: [FRIAM] whackadoodles go mainstream!

Not my area of expertise, though for about the past year I have spent some time learning about proteins, so I am not as completely lost as I would have been before that. The number of mechanisms that jointly get termed “evolution” in a complicated, mosaic, multi-host virus like this makes infer

Re: [FRIAM] whackadoodles go mainstream!

I found the assertion weak that the simple presence of these previously unreported sequence features (the binding domain ACE2 specificity, the (I think) detaching spike adaptation of the glycan collar) in wild type populations is evidence against purposeful engineering. Maybe the glimmer of a natu

Re: [FRIAM] IS: "...useful". WAS:: whackadoodles go mainstream!

> So, Peirce had many ideas of Peirce and we could be in love with different > ones. "Pierce is who you think Pierce thinks he is?" > > > Do you have time to distinguish between your idea of Pierce and My idea of > Peirce as regards the digestion of metal ducks? > > I am realizing the prob

Re: [FRIAM] whackadoodles go mainstream!

Glen - > You can't *objectively* tell. That's the whole point. I guess my assumption is that in principle I *can* tell objectively but this level of propaganda (if that is what it is) is crafted to be *difficult* but not impossible. > But what you can do is check your impressions against those of

Re: [FRIAM] whackadoodles go mainstream!

For some reason the links didn't send.. https://www.gisaid.org/epiflu-applications/next-hcov-19-app/ https://www.frontiersin.org/files/Articles/480312/fphar-11-00078-HTML-r1/image_m/fphar-11-00078-g001.jpg On 4/20/20, 4:46 PM, "Friam on behalf of Marcus Daniels" wrote: Compare the common

Re: [FRIAM] whackadoodles go mainstream!

Compare the common HLA alleles by country to the apparent transmission. On 4/20/20, 4:36 PM, "Friam on behalf of uǝlƃ ☣" wrote: It's unclear to me whether we'd expect the virus to evolve faster or slower, depending on where it "originated". It seems to me that if it first appeared in a sp

Re: [FRIAM] whackadoodles go mainstream!

It's unclear to me whether we'd expect the virus to evolve faster or slower, depending on where it "originated". It seems to me that if it first appeared in a species that was dissimilar, then when it finally landed in a more optimal host type, it would evolve quickly (at least in non-critical r

Re: [FRIAM] whackadoodles go mainstream!

> I do not believe that any of the "theories" about the origin have any purpose > other than to point fingers, place blame. One reason for this would be to > advance other arguments — typical conspiracy nonsense, Another would be to > identify a government or a lab or any entity with deep pocket

Re: [FRIAM] whackadoodles go mainstream!

As a ballpark the receptor binding domain is 211 residues, so 20^211, however only a small part of it seems to be actively evolving. [1] (see Table 1) https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.10.986398v1 From: Friam on behalf of David Eric Smith Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied C

Re: [FRIAM] whackadoodles go mainstream!

If a lab was the origin, the possibility exists that the lab, or one or more scientists at that lab, might have information about the virus that would be worth sharing. If the origin was a market then no such information would exist. I do not believe that any of the "theories" about the origin h

Re: [FRIAM] IS: "...useful". WAS:: whackadoodles go mainstream!

I DID misunderstand the force of the duck. Sorry. I retire from the field in my usual disarray. N Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University thompnicks...@gmail.com https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ -Original Message- From: Friam On Be

Re: [FRIAM] whackadoodles go mainstream!

Good article to have on hand; thanks Glen. You guys know this organism, right? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leucochloridium_paradoxum Have I posted it to the list before? Look through the lifecycle, and particularly the video. The sort

Re: [FRIAM] whackadoodles go mainstream!

My main concern would be about their priorities: We should figure out what to do about this rather than who to blame for it. If the original source were a lab that changes little right now compared to if it were a market. On 4/20/20, 1:51 PM, "Friam on behalf of uǝlƃ ☣" wrote: You

Re: [FRIAM] IS: "...useful". WAS:: whackadoodles go mainstream!

This is useful: https://www.tor.com/2011/06/29/the-pooping-duck-marvel-of-18th-century-robotics/ > But what really fascinates me about all this is Wood’s suggestion for WHY a > man of Vaucanson’s genius was so enthralled by mechanical duck defecation. In > addition to proving both popular and l

Re: [FRIAM] IS: "...useful". WAS:: whackadoodles go mainstream!

So, Peirce had many ideas of Peirce and we could be in love with different ones. Do you have time to distinguish between your idea of Pierce and My idea of Peirce as regards the digestion of metal ducks? I am realizing the problem might be with my understanding of the metal duck example.

Re: [FRIAM] IS: "...useful". WAS:: whackadoodles go mainstream!

I think your Peirce simulation might deny it. But his very useful work in logic (at the very least) shows he was capable of realizing the same sense of what is useful that I have. You're not in love with Peirce, your in love with your idea of Peirce. On 4/20/20 1:38 PM, thompnicks...@gmail.com

Re: [FRIAM] whackadoodles go mainstream!

You can't *objectively* tell. That's the whole point. But what you can do is check your impressions against those of others. My personal impression is that this "article" is complete bullshit. I feel *certain* that at least some of the people here, if they read the whole article, will conclude t

Re: [FRIAM] IS: "...useful". WAS:: whackadoodles go mainstream!

Glen, I would love to take this Things that help me construct metal, shitting ducks are useful. To the Pragmatism chat-site and watch it light up. But you have taught me that that would be trolling, and I believe that trolling is an unequivocally Bad Thing, so I won’t. Now, I

Re: [FRIAM] whackadoodles go mainstream!

Infestation is the world that comes to my mind in that example. On 4/20/20, 12:13 PM, "Friam on behalf of uǝlƃ ☣" wrote: Ha! Yeah, well, I try to be as generous with "crazy" as I am with "intelligent". I think it's effective to consider the crazy people as Evil Geniuses, intent on damagin

Re: [FRIAM] whackadoodles go mainstream!

Glen - Thanks for that link/reference.   I appreciate that there ARE such things as "influence operations" and Schneier's description is helpful, but I guess I'm still not clear on how I can tell objectively that "project evidence" is up to that.   To build my own strawman that maybe you can bolst

Re: [FRIAM] whackadoodles go mainstream!

Ha! Yeah, well, I try to be as generous with "crazy" as I am with "intelligent". I think it's effective to consider the crazy people as Evil Geniuses, intent on damaging the world. When you stare into a troll's eyes, the troll stares back at you. On 4/20/20 12:00 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote: > I l

Re: [FRIAM] IS: "...useful". WAS:: whackadoodles go mainstream!

Sure, I'll bite, since I'm waiting for criticism of a recent status report. My naïve first attempt is to say that which is useful is that which *I* can use to make things do what I want them to do. E.g. program a computer to output data with a particular quality. In comparing 1) the attribution

Re: [FRIAM] whackadoodles go mainstream!

Steve, you waded in further than I did. I stopped when it was about to go over the tops of my boots :-) On Mon, Apr 20, 2020 at 1:50 PM Steven A Smith wrote: > > > The worst conspiracy theory I've seen is this TL;DR, which uses TL;DR as > a *weapon* to blind the audience with "science": > > > >

Re: [FRIAM] whackadoodles go mainstream!

I looked over that Schneier list, but I didn't find the one that talks about policing the crazy people. :-) https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/20/us/coronavirus-colorado-health-care-trnd/index.html On 4/20/20, 11:53 AM, "Friam on behalf of uǝlƃ ☣" wrote: Not more elaborate, but it falls direct

Re: [FRIAM] whackadoodles go mainstream!

Not more elaborate, but it falls directly in line with the "influence operations" refined by Schneier: https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2019/08/influence_opera.html On 4/20/20 11:49 AM, Steven A Smith wrote: > Do you have a more elaborate analysis of what you think they are up to?  -- ☣

[FRIAM] IS: "...useful". WAS:: whackadoodles go mainstream!

Glen, If ever you wanted to explore what you meant by "useful" in your message below, I am your man. Such a discussion would get at the soul of pragmatism, the war between Peirce and his benefactor William James, and my war with Eric Charles concerning whether we should talk not about the

Re: [FRIAM] whackadoodles go mainstream!

> The worst conspiracy theory I've seen is this TL;DR, which uses TL;DR as a > *weapon* to blind the audience with "science": > > https://project-evidence.github.io/ > https://github.com/Project-Evidence/project-evidence.github.io > > I'd be curious if anyone in this forum prioritizes that as

Re: [FRIAM] whackadoodles go mainstream!

Re: the statistical wash -- yes, eventually. But for those of us who tend to over-react to everything and demand immediate access to knowledge that will only come a year or years later, it might help to think of COVID-19 as merely a complicating factor and retain the focus on your *current* dise

Re: [FRIAM] whackadoodles go mainstream!

With HIV there are people that can control the virus and have immunity for practical purposes. [1] Whether or not there are co-morbidities, if one has a strong signal like B*5701 for HIV, it should come out in the statistical wash. Not everyone with a particular HLA will have the same co-morb

[FRIAM] Fwd: Title, abstract and bio for Asma Ben Abacha

Talk available via Zoom. George Duncan Emeritus Professor of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University georgeduncanart.com See posts on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram Land: (505) 983-6895 Mobile: (505) 469-4671 My art theme: Dynamic exposition of the tension between matrix order and luminous chaos

Re: [FRIAM] whackadoodles go mainstream!

Well, there seems to be a tendency to identify 1 comorbidity (or complicating situation). But that misses the forest. I wonder at our inability to distinguish cases (and their trajectories) from deaths (and their history). Focusing on any single comorbidity will bias you to thinking COVID-19 is

Re: [FRIAM] whackadoodles go mainstream!

There are apparently a large set of silent spreaders, and then in-between cases like this: https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/19/entertainment/nick-cordero-coronavirus-leg-amputation-trnd/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/19/health/coronavirus-diary-sickness-brooke-baldwin/index.html It's all

Re: [FRIAM] whackadoodles go mainstream!

It doesn't seem very weird to me. Comorbidities are the real killers. The most serious comorbidity of them all is poverty. On 4/20/20 9:50 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote: > It is weird, though, how widely varying the outcomes are.Just saying it > is, say, obesity isn't a very satisfying explanati

Re: [FRIAM] whackadoodles go mainstream!

It is weird, though, how widely varying the outcomes are.Just saying it is, say, obesity isn't a very satisfying explanation. https://www.wbez.org/stories/in-chicago-70-of-covid-19-deaths-are-black/dd3f295f-445e-4e38-b37f-a1503782b507 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/nyregion/new-jersey-

[FRIAM] whackadoodles go mainstream!

Covid-19 Speculation Goes From Margin to Center https://fair.org/home/covid-19-speculation-goes-from-margin-to-center/ -- ☣ uǝlƃ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly

[FRIAM] Fwd: [HoTTEST] The HoTTEST Conference of 2020, June 15-19, only on the internet.

8^D > There will be no banquet, but if you insist on paying $80 for a meal worth no > more than $15, consider tipping generously for takeout from your local > restaurant. Original Message From: Chris Kapulkin We are pleased to announce the HoTTEST Conference of 2020 ta

Re: [FRIAM] FB self-selected antibody covid testing of 3000+ in Santa Clara

I don't know if these were mentioned in the livescience article. But its handy to have them posted separately. https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-begins-study-quantify-undetected-cases-coronavirus-infection https://www.sfchronicle.com/health/article/UC-Berkeley-launches-study-to-t