, that they will be
shorter and shorter as we move farther into 2008.
- NW7US, Tomas
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Bulletin from Tomas Hood, NW7US:
The Sun awakens in the early dawn of Sunspot Cycle 24
During the week of March 24, the Sun became quite active. This, after
many months of long stretches of quiet, sunspot-less days. March 25
images of the sun revealed a train of sunspots, NOAA AR 0987 (a beta
My apologies if this went out twice - I had a glitch with my e-mail program.
On 6/4/07, Tomas Hood (NW7US) [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
Hello, fellow SWL'er and potential Amateur Radio Operator:
73 de NW7US
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where I take various HF
propagation topics, and use modern software to model the concepts. I hope
that this is helpful to those of you wishing to dig deeper into space
weather and radio signal propagation (especially on HF).
73 es gud DX
Tomas Hood / NW7US / Heliophile
http
propagation topics, and use modern software to model the concepts. I
hope that this is helpful to those of you wishing to dig deeper into
space weather and radio signal propagation (especially on HF).
73 es gud DX
Tomas Hood / NW7US / Heliophile
: Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular
.
Especially on propagation paths that traverse over the poles.
More updates, when warranted.
73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA)
: Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications :
: Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ :
: Associate Member of Propagation Studies
http://www.rocknord.de
http://www.aktivefrauenfraktion.tk
http://www.kopfmord.de
http://www.das-gibts-doch-nicht.de
http://www.zukunft-europa.info/index.html
http://www.geocities.com/scorpios2602/links.html
http://www.g-d-f.de
http://www.bewaeltigen.de
http://www.wk-institut.de
NW7US Propagation Bulletin
07 February 2005
Propagation today (07-II-2005) has turned poor on many HF circuits, due to
a fast solar wind originating in a large coronal hole. This coronal hole
is located in the northern hemisphere of the visible solar disk, and is in
position to continue
NW7US Propagation Bulletin Update
21 January 2005 - 1945 UTC
As I mentioned early on (see my recent bulletins), the X7 flare unleashed
a coronal mass ejection. I had reported that it was probable that the CME
was directed Earthward. It was. It has hit, today, and we are now seeing
NW7US Propagation Bulletin
20 January 2005 - 1430 UTC
At the time of this bulletin, active sunspot region 10720 (720) continues
its flaring activity. Since the X3.8 flare of 17-I-2005 that peaked at
0954 UTC, we've seen three M-class flares (peaks at 1134 and 1549 UTC,
18-I-2005 and 1539
NW7US Propagation Bulletin Update
20 January 2005 - 1645 UTC
This latest X-class flare, the THIRD LARGEST of this solar cycle (Cycle
23), was incredible. It unleashed an extreme (and very sudden) proton
event, that has nearly caused a complete white-out of various space
weather satellite
a problem.
HF propagation will be very limited when the shock wave hits.
More as new information become available.
--
73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA)
: Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications :
: Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ :
: Associate Member
NW7US update / correction
The dates in my last bulletin were stated as 17 and 18 January 2005.
Please adjust those to 18 and 18 January. A slip of the fingers.
Thanks.
--
73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA)
: Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications :
: Creator; live
The following is a corrected version of
NW7US Propagation Bulletin
18 January 2005 - 1520Z
Active solar region 10720 (or, just 720) has spawned a great number of
flares. So far, three of these unleashed coronal mass ejections directed
toward Earth, and triggered proton events. The latest
NW7US Propagation Bulletin / Update
19 January 2005 - 0030Z
There is speculation that the coronal mass ejection unleashed by the X3.8
level flare from active region 720 may have arrived. It is very difficult
to determine exactly when, if indeed it has, arrived. The reason for this
lies
NW7US Propagation Bulletin Update
0930 UTC, 17 January 2005
It is clear now after analysis that the coronal mass ejection (CME)
associated with the X2.6-class X-ray flare of 2302 UTC 15 January 2005 has
arrived. The first detection was at 0640 UTC as an energetic ion
enhancement
. It is possible that we will yet
see the major to severe geomagnetic storm.
73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA)
: Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications :
: Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ :
: Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee of RSGB
NW7US Propagation Update
17 January 2005 - 1145 UTC
The solar wind speed is now (1145 UTC) exceeding 776 km/s with a
moderately southward orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz
= -6.6 nT). This rise in wind speed is rather sudden, after a long period
of it hovering around 600
. It is highly expected that
geomagnetic storm activity will begin over the next 24 hours.
73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA)
: Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications :
: Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ :
: Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee
. It is highly expected that
geomagnetic storm activity will begin over the next 24 hours.
73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA)
: Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications :
: Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ :
: Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee
NW7US Propagation Update
17 January 2005 - 2030 UTC
The latest long-duration flare from active solar region 720 (the flare
measured X3.8 and X4.1, officially recorded as X3.8 at 0659 UTC
17-I-2005), which took 2 hours to reach maximum, and had a long decay as
well, unleashed such an intense
/visual_propagation.html
http://hfradio.org/aurora.html
Thanks, and good luck!
73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA)
: Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications :
: Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ :
: Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee of RSGB :
: US Army
. It is highly expected that
geomagnetic storm activity will begin over the next 24 hours.
73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA)
: Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications :
: Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ :
: Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee
of
171,851.9 degrees K. The Bz went from -0.3 to -1.2 at the same moment.
This is a precursor to the beginning of geomagnetic storminess within 12
hours.
73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA)
: Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications :
: Creator; live propagation center http
NW7US Propagation Update (15 January 2005 0840 UTC)
During the series of flares from solar sunspot region 0720, at 0614 UTC 15
January 2005, a strong solar flare and radio sweep event was observed.
This indicates a full-halo coronal mass ejection (one that is headed
directly toward Earth
NW7US Propagation Update Bulletin 16-I-2005 0430 UTC
At the time of this bulletin, we've just witnessed another long-duration
flare. This is the strongest of the flares so far unleashed by active
sunspot region 720 (NOAA 10720). This flare was a major X2.6-class event
that peaked at 2302
Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA)
: Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications :
: Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ :
: Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee of RSGB :
: US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) SMD AAA0WA :
: 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon
passage. However, forecasts suspected a
CME passage from recent events.
73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA)
: Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications :
: Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ :
: Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee of RSGB :
: US
significant F-layer propagation opening on
VHF.
Happy Dxing!
73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA)
--
: Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, and Popular Communications :
: Quarterly Propagation Columnist for Monitoring Times Magazine :
: Creator of live propagation center - http://prop.hfradio.org
and propagation:
http://hfradio.org/forums/
In addition, you can always get the latest live space weather and
propagation information at http://prop.hfradio.org -- or with a
WAP phone, at http://wap.hfradio.org/
Happy Dxing!
73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA)
--
: Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF
frequency openings.
I'll be watching things closely, and will update my
predictions if warrented. You can find the latest
version at http://prop.hfradio.org/
Happy DXing!
73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA)
--
: Propagation Editor, CQ/CQ VHF/Popular Communications Magazines :
: http://hfradio.org
will be posted in follow-up
bulletins. Live information is on-going at
http://prop.hfradio.org/ and a discussion is at
http://hfradio.org/forums/
73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA)
--
: Propagation Editor, CQ/CQ VHF/Popular Communications Magazines :
: http://hfradio.org/ -- http
Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA)
--
: Propagation Editor, CQ/CQ VHF/Popular Communications Magazines :
: http://hfradio.org/ -- http://prop.hfradio.org/ -- Brinnon, WA :
: 122.93W 47.67N - CW / SSB / DIGITAL / DX-Hunting / Propagation :
: A creator of solutions -- http://accessnow.com/ -- Perl Rules
levels. VHF conditions
could be enhanced due to the active aurora conditions and
elevated geomagnetic activity.
More at http://prop.hfradio.org/
73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA)
--
: Propagation Editor, CQ/CQ VHF/Popular Communications Magazines :
: http://hfradio.org/ -- http://prop.hfradio.org
,
and 98 for today through Tuesday. But, with the
increased geomagnetic activity, the higher bands will
still suffer.
More info at http://prop.hfradio.org
73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA)
--
: Propagation Editor, CQ/CQ VHF/Popular Communications Magazines :
: http://hfradio.org/ -- http
://prop.hfradio.org
73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA)
--
: Propagation Editor, CQ/CQ VHF/Popular Communications Magazines :
: http://hfradio.org/ -- http://prop.hfradio.org/ -- Brinnon, WA :
: 122.93W 47.67N - CW / SSB / DIGITAL / DX-Hunting / Propagation :
: A creator of solutions -- http
are finally down in the B range. This is making it better for the lower bands.
The 10.7-cm flux is decreasing, as well, so the highest HF bands are less likely
to propagate.
73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA)
--
: Propagation Editor, CQ/CQ VHF/Popular Communications Magazines :
: http://hfradio.org
The CME from the X28 flare (4-XI-2003) has arrived
at 1937Z 6-XI-2003. The deviation was a moderate
31 nT at the Boulder, CO station. We expect the
Kp index to increase, possibly as high as 6. Right
now, the Kp is 5. Some moderate Auroral activity
might result for the next 12 hours.
More at
, such that they will be able to see around the sun at what is
coming and what has went. This certainly will become a major tool in our
forecasting of space weather, and propagation.
I will post my propagation forecast on http://prop.hfradio.org/ late today.
73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA)
--
: Propagation
with fast CME and interplanetary shock waves (Cane, Shelley Howard 1987).
Thus, there is a chance that we will have at least a glancing blow from the side
of the possible CME associated with this new flare. I will update when more
data is known.
73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA
somewhat due to the elevated geomagnetic activity.
Region 486 and 488 are rotating around the western limb of the sun by 5-XI-2003,
and things should quiet down somewhat. Until then, some additional flare
activity is possible. The coronal hole activity, however, will continue.
73 de Tomas, NW7US
and the estimated
frequencies affected is at
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/rt_plots/dregion.html
A full list of links, like this, are on my propagation page (
http://prop.hfradio.org ).
73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA)
--
: Propagation Editor, CQ/CQ VHF/Popular Communications Magazines :
: http
night, I was hearing SW DX on as high as
17 MHz.
73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA)
--
: Propagation Editor, CQ/CQ VHF/Popular Communications Magazines :
: http://hfradio.org/ -- http://prop.hfradio.org/ -- Brinnon, WA :
: 122.93W 47.67N - CW / SSB / DIGITAL / DX-Hunting / Propagation
cycles have
had such bursts during the decline of those cycles.
I'll post more about this soon.
73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA)
--
: Propagation Editor, CQ/CQ VHF/Popular Communications Magazines :
: http://hfradio.org/ -- http://prop.hfradio.org/ -- Brinnon, WA :
: 122.93W 47.67N - CW / SSB
reporting
agency. Other agencies, in other countries are reporting these events.
What's more, HF propagation shows the result of these events. Unless you
are willing to believe that NOAA can cause world-wide propagation
degradation, you can't hold onto such cynical views.
73
de NW7US
, inbetween the occassional flare.
73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA)
--
: Propagation Editor, CQ/CQ VHF/Popular Communications Magazines :
: http://hfradio.org/ -- http://prop.hfradio.org/ -- Brinnon, WA :
: 122.93W 47.67N - CW / SSB / DIGITAL / DX-Hunting / Propagation :
: A creator of solutions -- http
are moving along fairly well, even when many
thought that the worst storm for many moons was upon us. Let's see how the rest
of the day progresses...
Cross our fingers! Maybe the contest will not be a bust.
73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA)
--
: Propagation Editor, CQ/CQ VHF/Popular Communications
today and
tomorrow. The Bz might turn negative during such a grazing passage of the CME,
so we might have some elevation in the Kp late today and early tomorrow.
However, conditions should continue to be useful for the contest period.
At least, in my humble opinion.
73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA
for a look at this hearing).
More to follow, as new information becomes available...
73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA)
--
: Propagation Editor, CQ/CQ VHF/Popular Communications Magazines :
: http://hfradio.org/ -- http://prop.hfradio.org/ -- Brinnon, WA :
: 122.93W 47.67N - CW / SSB / DIGITAL / DX
would love to hear real reports on what you are hearing, especially if
you hear unusual DX - stuff that is normally difficult or impossible to DX.
Thanks,
73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA)
--
: Propagation Editor, CQ/CQ VHF/Popular Communications Magazines :
: http://hfradio.org/ -- http
.
73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA)
--
: Propagation Editor, CQ/CQ VHF/Popular Communications Magazines :
: http://hfradio.org/ -- http://prop.hfradio.org/ -- Brinnon, WA :
: 122.93W 47.67N - CW / SSB / DIGITAL / DX-Hunting / Propagation :
: A creator of solutions -- http://accessnow.com/ -- Perl
installed for you. You
should check out the information at http://free.consergent.com
I wonder if they will provide technical feedback about the results of these
test? What sort of antenna will they provide?
73 de Tomas, NW7US // AAR0JA
--
: Propagation Editor, CQ/PopComm Magazines - Member
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