[LEAPSECS] next leap second

John Sauter wrote: >While it is impossible to know for certain when the next leap second >will occur, I predict it will be December 31, 2022. I find that a surprising prediction. What is your basis for it? The extrapolating expression from the current Bulletin A

[LEAPSECS] Next leap second approaching ... ;-)

Next leap second approaching ... ;-) http://xkcd.com/162/ Martin -- Martin Burnicki MEINBERG Funkuhren GmbH & Co. KG Email: martin.burni...@meinberg.de Phone: +49 (0)5281 9309-14 Fax: +49 (0)5281 9309-30 Lange Wand 9, 31812 Bad Pyrmont, Germany Amtsgericht Hannover 17HRA 100322 Geschäftsführer/

Re: [LEAPSECS] next leap second

On Wed, 2017-01-11 at 13:07 +, Zefram wrote: > John Sauter wrote: > > While it is impossible to know for certain when the next leap > > second > > will occur, I predict it will be December 31, 2022. > > I find that a surprising prediction.  What is your basis for it? > > The extrapolating exp

Re: [LEAPSECS] next leap second

John Sauter wrote: >My second source is the estimates of delta T from Stephenson, Morrison >and Hohenkerk. I'd expect the IERS projections to be the more reliable over the next few years. The focus of Stephenson et al is the long term, and they use general-purpose curve fitting methods. The IERS

Re: [LEAPSECS] next leap second

On Wed, Jan 11, 2017 at 3:28 PM, Zefram wrote: > It would be nice to have more sophisticated projections from IERS more > than a year ahead. It would particularly help in evaluating the proposals > that have been made involving scheduling leap seconds further ahead. Especially if they had error

Re: [LEAPSECS] next leap second

On Wed, Jan 11, 2017 at 5:03 PM, Warner Losh wrote: > On Wed, Jan 11, 2017 at 3:28 PM, Zefram wrote: >> It would be nice to have more sophisticated projections from IERS more >> than a year ahead. It would particularly help in evaluating the proposals >> that have been made involving scheduling

Re: [LEAPSECS] next leap second

On 2017-01-12 12:18 PM, Michael Shields via LEAPSECS wrote: On Wed, Jan 11, 2017 at 5:03 PM, Warner Losh wrote: On Wed, Jan 11, 2017 at 3:28 PM, Zefram wrote: It would be nice to have more sophisticated projections from IERS more than a year ahead. It would particularly help in evaluating th

Re: [LEAPSECS] next leap second

On Thu, 2017-01-12 at 09:18 -0800, Michael Shields via LEAPSECS wrote: > It might also be helpful if we understood better how these models are > used to decide when to announce leap seconds.  I don't know currently > what criteria the IERS uses, except the overall parameters of keeping > > UT1-UTC

Re: [LEAPSECS] next leap second

IERS Technical Note No. 36 IERS Conventions (2010) ftp://tai.bipm.org/iers/conv2010/tn36.pdf -Brooks On 2017-01-12 01:08 PM, Brooks Harris wrote: On 2017-01-12 12:18 PM, Michael Shields via LEAPSECS wrote: On Wed, Jan 11, 2017 at 5:03 PM, Warner Losh wrote: On Wed, Jan 11, 2017 at 3:28 PM,

Re: [LEAPSECS] next leap second

On Thu 2017-01-12T12:57:55 -0500, John Sauter hath writ: > Keep in mind that the IERS may have > improved their algorithm since 1972, so we may be looking at a moving > target. Yes. Everything is entirely different. Things that have changed and continue to change include sites and organizations

Re: [LEAPSECS] next leap second

On Wed, 2017-01-11 at 13:07 +, Zefram wrote: > John Sauter wrote: > > While it is impossible to know for certain when the next leap > > second > > will occur, I predict it will be December 31, 2022. > > I find that a surprising prediction. What is your basis for it? > > The extrapolating exp

Re: [LEAPSECS] next leap second

In honor of IERS Bulletin C56, I am updating my prediction of the next leap second. I now think it will be at the end of December 31, 2020. I have a web page where I describe how I make my prediction. To avoid offending the list moderator I will not place the URL here, but if anyone wants it I w