RE: Your opinion on network analysis in the presence of uncertain events

> From: Mel Beckman > Sent: Wednesday, January 16, 2019 9:21 PM > > MTBF can’t be used alone to predict failure probability, because product > mortality follows the infamous “bathtub curve”. Products are as likely to fail > early in their lives as later in their lives. MTBF as a scalar value is

Re: Your opinion on network analysis in the presence of uncertain events

On Tue, 15 Jan 2019 at 19:01, Vanbever Laurent wrote: > > Hi NANOG, > > Networks evolve in uncertain environments. Links and devices randomly fail; > external BGP announcements unpredictably appear/disappear leading to > unforeseen traffic shifts; traffic demands vary, etc. Reasoning about

Re: Your opinion on network analysis in the presence of uncertain events

Hi Adam/Mel, Thanks for chiming in! My understanding was that the tool will combine historic data with the MTBF datapoints form all components involved in a given link in order to try and estimate a likelihood of a link failure. Yep. This could be one way indeed. This likelihood could also be

Re: Your opinion on network analysis in the presence of uncertain events

MTBF can’t be used alone to predict failure probability, because product mortality follows the infamous “bathtub curve”. Products are as likely to fail early in their lives as later in their lives. MTBF as a scalar value is just an average. -mel via cell On Jan 16, 2019, at 12:43 PM,

RE: Your opinion on network analysis in the presence of uncertain events

My understanding was that the tool will combine historic data with the MTBF datapoints form all components involved in a given link in order to try and estimate a likelihood of a link failure. Heck I imagine if one would stream a heap load of data at a ML algorithm it might draw some very

Re: Your opinion on network analysis in the presence of uncertain events

I know of none that take probabilities as inputs. Traditional network simulators, such as GNS3, let you model various failure modes, but probability seems squishy enough that I don’t see how it can be accurate, and thus helpful. It’s like that Dilbert cartoon where the pointy haired boss asks

Re: Your opinion on network analysis in the presence of uncertain events

> I took the survey. It’s short and sweet — well done! Thanks a lot, Mel! Highly appreciated! > I do have a question. You ask "Are there any good?” Any good what? I just meant whether existing network analysis tools were any good (or good enough) at reasoning about probabilistic behaviors

Re: Your opinion on network analysis in the presence of uncertain events

I took the survey. It’s short and sweet — well done! I do have a question. You ask "Are there any good?” Any good what? -mel On Jan 15, 2019, at 10:59 AM, Vanbever Laurent mailto:lvanbe...@ethz.ch>> wrote: Hi NANOG, Networks evolve in uncertain environments. Links and devices randomly fail;