Re: [NMusers] What does convergence/covariance show?

2009-08-24 Thread Nick Holford
Mats, When I referred to a change of 50 being needed to detect something of practical importance I was not saying that was of clinical relevance. That cannot be judged from the OFV alone. But small OFV changes are rarely if ever indicators of something that is clinically relevant. I expect y

Re: [NMusers] What does convergence/covariance show?

2009-08-24 Thread Nick Holford
Leonid, I did not say NONMEM stops at random. Whether or not the stopping point is associated with convergence or a successful covariance step appears to be at random. The parameter values at the stopping point will typically be negligibly different. Thus the stopping point is not at random.

Re: [NMusers] What does convergence/covariance show?

2009-08-24 Thread Leonid Gibiansky
Nick, Concerning "random stops at arbitrary point with arbitrary error" I was referring to your statement: "NONMEM VI will fail to converge or not complete the covariance step more or less at random" For OFV, you did not tell the entire story. If you would look only on OF, you would go for th

RE: [NMusers] What does convergence/covariance show?

2009-08-24 Thread Mats Karlsson
Nick, I too would use OFV as the most important goodness-of-fit diagnostic when comparing models, especially when deeming something to be redundant. If adding a component doesn't reduce OFV, I see no reason to include it (I think we're agreeing on something!). However, you write " Small (5-10) c

Re: [NMusers] What does convergence/covariance show?

2009-08-24 Thread Nick Holford
Leonid, I do not experience "random stops at arbitrary point with arbitrary error" so I don't understand what your problem is. The objective function is the primary metric of goodness of fit. I agree it is possible to get drops in objective function that are associated with unreasonable para

Re: [NMusers] What does convergence/covariance show?

2009-08-24 Thread Leonid Gibiansky
Nick, I think it is dangerous to rely heavily on the objective function (let alone on ONLY objective function) in the model development process. I am very surprised that you use it as the main diagnostic. If you think that nonmem randomly stops at arbitrary point with arbitrary error, how can

Re: [NMusers] What does convergence/covariance show?

2009-08-24 Thread Nick Holford
Mats, Leonid, Thanks for your definitions. I think I prefer that provided by Mats but he doesn't say what his test for goodness-of-fit might be. Leonid already assumes that convergence/covariance are diagnostic so it doesnt help at all with an independent definition of overparameterization.

Re: [NMusers] Honest measurements

2009-08-24 Thread Nick Holford
Joachim, Thanks for your proposal to make our lives as PK modellers even more challenging :-) I have indeed thought of the idea of just trying to get the raw measurement data e.g. absorbance, and including a 'standard curve' model in addition to the PK model. But there are practical problems

RE: [NMusers] Honest measurements

2009-08-24 Thread Grevel, Joachim
Mark et al. yes I am thinking of instrument output being fed directly into the NONMEM data file. That output could be radioactivity count, absorption intensity, some MS signal... any thing numeric. Joachim -- AstraZenec

RE: [NMusers] Honest measurements

2009-08-24 Thread Mark Sale - Next Level Solutions
Joachim et al.  Moreover, assays are typically done in duplicate or triplicate, with only the mean reported.  We had many discussions at GSK with the chemists about getting "all" the data (BQL, all replicates) promising everything imaginable (first, the data would never end up in a regulatory docu

RE: [NMusers] Honest measurements

2009-08-24 Thread Grevel, Joachim
Dear all, I am thinking back to early days of pharmacodynamics. The clinical people would report to us "early" modellers response data in the form of percent change from baseline. Very soon we asked for the raw data rejecting their "model" of generating response data as being subjective and bia

Re: [NMusers] What does convergence/covariance show?

2009-08-24 Thread Leonid Gibiansky
Hi Nick, I am not sure how you build the models but I am using convergence, relative standard errors, correlation matrix of parameter estimates (reported by the covariance step), and correlation of random effects quite extensively when I decide whether I need extra compartments, extra random

Re: [NMusers] Linear VS LTBS

2009-08-24 Thread Indranil Bhattacharya
Hi, my approach has been to use both LTBS and un-transformed data and then see which one characterizes the data better. Then change initial estimates and see how the model predicts. My previous experience was when using untransformed with INTER the model was not able to always converge specially wh

RE: [NMusers] Honest measurements

2009-08-24 Thread Ed O'Connor
Sense and nonsense. Analysts are constrained certainly but good analytical science is good analytical science. During the method development stage several parameters are examined. One parameter for example is recovery of analyte from a set of spiked individual (matrices). Another exercise

RE: [NMusers] What does convergence/covariance show?

2009-08-24 Thread Mats Karlsson
Nick, Pls see below. Mats Karlsson, PhD Professor of Pharmacometrics Dept of Pharmaceutical Biosciences Uppsala University Box 591 751 24 Uppsala Sweden phone: +46 18 4714105 fax: +46 18 471 4003 -Original Message- From: owner-nmus...@globomaxnm.com [mailto:owner-nmus...@globomaxnm.com]

RE: [NMusers] Honest measurements

2009-08-24 Thread Mats Karlsson
Steve, And we need to design our studies to what is reported, which means taking into account that for some observations, the only information you will get is that they are below a limit. Best regards, Mats Mats Karlsson, PhD Professor of Pharmacometrics Dept of Pharmaceutical Biosciences Uppsal

RE: [NMusers] Honest measurements

2009-08-24 Thread Mats Karlsson
Nick, So the advice regarding handling of error models actually concerns a study that is to be done in your lab where negative concentrations are to be reported. Not the million of studies with LOQ limits. Could have been useful to know. Best regards, Mats Mats Karlsson, PhD Professor of Pharmac

RE: [NMusers] Honest measurements

2009-08-24 Thread Stephen Duffull
Mats I agree with Nick. Negative "observed" concns do occur for assays, even in my limited time working with HPLC I have seen them, however due to LOD/LOQ they are never really looked for and certainly never reported... Steve > -Original Message- > From: owner-nmus...@globomaxnm.com [