When times gets tough, everybody becomes a Keynesian, apparently even
GW, who's now selling his tax cut as means of stimulating the economy
and averting recession (not the rationale he was using six months ago).
Except on issues of timing (eg Laura D'Andrea Tyson's comments) , no one
seems to
Jim Devine wrote:
it's the government _debt_ to the people (i.e., the peoples' asset) that's
held as government bonds. The surplus leads to the reduction of this debt.
This reduction is accomplished by using tax dollars, ie income, to buy bond on
the open market. Ie the surplus (and the way
Ellen Frank wrote:
Since the surplus is currently being held as government bonds, I would
expect a surplus-financed tax cut to raise interest rates.
Why should this be so? Why is it all of a sudden conventional
wisdom that interest rates are determined by the federal
budget rather than
Ellen Frank wrote:
Let's say I get a $50,000 tax refund thanks to Dubya, with
which I buy shares in a bio-tech IPO.
Remember that most of the money 'invested' in the stock market goes to
buy existing stock, not new issues.
Once current income starts whirling around in the speculative
David Shemano wrote:
If crowding out is fallacious, and there is absolutely no link between
budget deficits and interest rates, what is one to think of the efficacy of
President Clinton's policies as a contributor to economic growth?
That there was none. Much as I miss Clinton (even though
Ellen Frank wrote:
Doug writes:
Ok, so what gave us the longest expansion in U.S. history, and a 42%
rise in real GDP?
Doug
I really don't know. But the conventional wisdom really
falls apart on close inspection. For example, real
interest rates were high compared with earlier
In today's LA TIMES, there's a story about the US government's purchase of
its bonds (as part of the "paying down" of its debt). Because it can't
always do so (since sellers must be willing to sell and will often wait
until the bonds mature), the government needs somewhere to "park" its
Iwonder if a flight to liquidity is still on the table. Are
wealth holders willing to hold currency? Itend to think not.
What do weatlth holders consider safe instruments these days? (If
I were a wealth holder, I'd be moving money into (internationally
diversified)govt securities but of course
though looking at the foreign-exchange value of the dollar is important, I
think that looking at aggregate demand is more important. There are two
polar alternatives:
1) the US trade deficit pulls up the rest of the world, allowing a
mutually-reinforcing demand-side boom amongst the
As long as the dollar remains high, it indicates that the inflow of
external finance is continuing to sustain US consumption. When the dollar
drops (as it must, eventually), we are in a new era.
I think Peter has it right. Until some other part of the world becomes more
attractive to
Our resident enviro economist Jim Barrett says it is supply
problems in the U.S. -- failure to maintain refinery and pipeline
capacity. The regulatory component is about five cents to the
gallon.
Certainly, but haven't gas prices risen in Europe as well?
And haven't world crude prices
but the cumulative
gain over the last two decades has been just 1.2 percentage points.
Why would you look over the last two decades? The important
changes occurred in the 90s.
Changes in down payment requirements have been enormous.
I don't know if the Clinton administration had a hand in this.
. (I realize that IPO's are a small fraction
of the market, but still.)
Does this reflect some idyosyncracy of the Fed's accounting?
If not, how do we account for this?
--
Barnet Wagman
email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
The term 'international political economy' is/was used by international
political scientists like Susan Strange - their use of the the term is
almost entirely unrelated to its use by Smith or Marxians or Buchanan
(in case things weren't confusing enought).
Barnet Wagman
email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
) countries?
Doug?
Cheers,
Rob.
There's always the ERP (http://www.gpo.ucop.edu/catalog/erp99_appen_b.html)
I don't know how comparable its series are.
--
Barnet Wagman
email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
on this
subject.
Thanks,
Barnet Wagman
email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Ellen Frank wrote:
... rentiers hoarding funds and businesses looking
to expand.
I don't remember this bit. Why would rentiers
want to hoard?
--
Barnet Wagman
email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
g
a recession when the economy is booming, and in an election
year, yet?
Barney
--
Barnet Wagman
email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:
>
>> ... rentiers hoarding funds and businesses looking
>> to expand.
>
>I don't remember this bit. Why would rentiers
>want to hoard?
>
>--
>Barnet Wagman
>
>email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
>
>
--
Barnet Wagman
email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
4853 N. Winchester Ave., Apt #2.
Chicago, IL 60640-4006
773-275-4084
have to pay with cash. The longer you
avoid paying, the more interest fees you have to pay.
^ That's certainly true. But with revolving credit, consumers don't have to
hold cash very long. And being caught up short is a less pressing
problem.
--
Barnet Wagman
email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
What's N30?
Lisa Ian Murray wrote:
Condit and Co. were pissed 'cause they got their
asses kicked on N30 :-)
Ian
--
Barnet Wagman
email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
best.
Edwin (Tom) Dickens
--
Barnet Wagman
email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
strategy?
--
Barnet Wagman
email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Haven't BOTH the mean and median savings rates declined over
the last decade?
Brad De Long wrote:
Which is one big reason that average (instead of
median) savings
rates are pretty worthless as indicators of what's going on; the
averages are overwhelmingly influenced by the rich...
--
--
Barnet
Is there any document or book that fully defines the items in
the Fed's "Flow of Funds" data? The data itself is available
on the Fed's web page but I haven't found anything that
specifies how they define things.
Thanks,
Barnet Wagman
email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
of the
billions that go through there are producers or consumers mitigating
risk
may be tracked somewhere. It would be interesting.>>
(By "consumers" she means, e.g., General Mills managing its
wheat needs.)
Carrol
-------
Barnet Wagman
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Chicago, IL 60622
930s by
brHicks and Samuelson as 'everybody's economics'"
pThis isn't the story you get from Keynes or modern post-Keynesians;
brwhat's up here?
pDoug/blockquote
pre
-------
Barnet Wagman
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
/pre
nbsp;/html
!doctype html public "-//w3c//dtd html 4.0 transitional//en"
html
Actually, I suspect that the markets would have reacted positively to iwhatever/i
brthe Fed did.nbsp; If the rates had not been raised, it would have
been taken as
bran indication that the everything is wonderful.nbsp; The fact
brspecific program that included financing academic research and establishing
conservative research
brinstitutions.nbsp; (Could this have been the origin of the American
Enteprise Institute?)nbsp;nbsp; Someone may have
brwritten a book on this - does that ring a bell with anyone?
pre
----
econometrics text. Any recommendations for something
not too difficult, with exercises for the student to work on, etc? He
will be taking a "real" metrics course next year in grad school, so all
that's needed is the foundation. Thanks.
Peter
-------
Bar
/economic woes yield further
capital flight to
the U.S. and a consequent stock market rebound, independent of what's happenning
in
the real U.S. economy.
Barnet Wagman
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
___
That would be great. (I'm very big on threads - among other advantagous,
using them let's me extinguish
a whole series of flames and counter-flames with one push of the delete key.)
Thanks
__
Barnet Wagman
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
773-645-8369
2118 W
Wagman
__
Barnet Wagman
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
773-645-8369
2118 W. Le Moyne St., 1st floor
Chicago, IL 60622
__
"g-deficient" ? What's that?
Yours trying to stay abreast of all the buzzwords,
___
Barnet Wagman
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
773-645-8369
2118 W. Le Moyne St., 1st floor
Chicago, IL 60622
__
of
this excellent book). There may be more recent works on this subject,
but I haven't kept up.
__
Barnet Wagman
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
773-645-8369
2118 W. Le Moyne St., 1st floor
Chicago, IL 60622
__
recall, Boeing employs
nearly as many engineers as production workers; most of the former are
involved in development.
I'd guess that development costs are significant in the auto industry as
well.
Why is GM so damn big then?
__
Barnet Wagman
[EMAIL
actually be important.
Barnet Wagman
Economics, U. of Northern B.C.
__
Barnet Wagman
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
773-645-8369
1st floor
2118 W. Le Moyne St.
Chicago, IL 60622
__
Actually, I'd really appreciate NOT having 'PEN-Message Number' in the
header. Without it,
I can sort replies by subject, and keep a set of related replies together
(the poor man's version of
threaded messages). Actually, it's the message number that interfere's with
sorting.
Thanks,
Barnet
, First Nations
organizations and academics (we have a programme in 'First Nations
Studies'), at least in British
Columbia. But I don't think that either of these terms have come into
common usage.
Barnet Wagman
Economics
U. of Northern B.C.
In his book on the war, _In Homage to Catalonia_, George Orwell talked
about shoe shiners
(I imagine he called them bootblacks) as being strong supporters of
anarchism and - I think -
as being unionized.
Barnet Wagman
growth accounts for only around 12% of the decline the
unemployment rate (since Feb).
Barnet Wagman
Economics Programme
University of Northern British Columbia
in Chicago (i.e. I'm on leave)
of 'discouraged' workers.
Unfortunately, the discouraged workers stats are not available
from the BLS web site, so I haven't seen them. Does anyone have
them for the last year or so?
Barnet Wagman
Economics Programme
University of Northern British Columbia
in Chicago (i.e. I'm on leave)
for underemployment and 'discouraged' workers.
The question is whether this mis-mearsurement is getting worse.
Any suggestions on what to read?
Thanks,
Barnet Wagman
nything about how these number are constructed (or where to
find out), please let me know.
Thanks,
Barnet Wagman
Economics Programme
U. Northern B.C.
Do not assume that OECD's deficit numbers match up with those from the
IMF. It would probably be best to stick with the OECD numbers for all
years you are looking at.
Barnet Wagman
Economics
U. of Northern B.C.
Is this an intro text or an intermediate text? I used to use Colander's
intermediate, which I thought was out of print.
Thanks,
Barnet Wagman
Economics
U. of Northern B.C.
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
On Mon, 5 Feb 1996, James Michael Craven wrote:
Note:
Take a look at Colander's Economics 2nd Ed
macro-suicide. Of course, the effects of these cuts in macro (as opposed to
human) terms aren't apparent yet. But it won't be long.
Barnet Wagman
Economics Programme
U
.
Barnet Wagman
Economics Programme
U. of Northern British Columbia
est to
respond to me directly.)
Thanks,
Barnet Wagman
Economics Programme
Personally, I haven't read any of the recent discussion of the LTV (or
of GE either for that matter). It's not at the top of my mental
queue these days (and like everyone else, I'm short of time).
BUT that doesn't mean that it shouldn't be on pen-l; on the contrary,
there should be a place
Ah, but there is only one Michael Jordan, and presumably his contract with
Nike is exclusive. Economics has always underestimated the importance of
advertising and marketing in defining preferences and stimulating demand.
One of the great 'triumphs' of American business over the last
Ah, but there is only one Michael Jordan, and presumably his contract with
Nike is exclusive. Economics has always underestimated the importance of
advertising and marketing in defining preferences and stimulating demand.
One of the great 'triumphs' of American business over the last
The Net's popularity and success (in linking many people and distributing
information) resulted from the fact that it was paid for by the government,
and made available to academics essentially for free. It is NOT at all
obvious that a 'for-profit' network would be as widely used. Existing
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