2008/10/27 Alexander Johannesen <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>: > On Mon, Oct 27, 2008 at 12:01, Steve Jones <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >>But what I mean is that all of the Toxic TLAs >> and FLAs were very "agile" products, they were created specifically >> because there was flexibility where there shouldn't be. > > I understand where you're going with this, I really do, but I think > your use of "agility" in this context is just wrong, as I don't > subscribe to "agile" being the same as "flexible." Just like SOA is a > complex entity, so is Agility; it's not project management, it's not > software development, it's not a testing framework, it's not a > business model ... it's all of them, wrapped up in one. Just like if > you think SOA is a "large network of webservices", you're equally > screwed up about Agile being "flexible around schedules and less > meetings."
I was taking your sporting definition about it about being able to quickly react to external stimuli. > >> Put it this way. A train isn't agile, it goes from A to B. Adding >> "Agility" by letting it leave the rails and go onto the road (while >> not actually changing the train so its just an unguided missile) is a >> different example of adding Agility to "rapidly" cope with the >> competition from the roads. The end result is a massive train wreck >> that is explicitly caused by the breakdown of oversight and governance >> and the unchecked addition of "agility" to the system. > > Wow! A train made entirely out of straw! :) > >> This is exactly what has happened with the credit crunch. Banks >> rapidly added more "agile" products that responded quickly to market >> demands and enabled them to deal more flexibility with things like >> lending money to people who couldn't pay it back (What else are those >> CDO things?). > > Bzzzt! Sorry, but this is not "being agile" as much as "being stupid." > This is Banking 101; don't lend money to people who can't pay it back. > They can call it "being flexible" all they want, but it's just plain > stupid, nothing more. You say this, but what enabled them to do this? What drove them to do it? The answer in the later was that they were reacting to a market stimuli (one thing you can't argue in all of this is that there wasn't a demand side push to the crisis) and they reacted very quickly to it and in very flexible ways. Both in terms of working out how to sell mortgages to people with no money and in terms of then reacting to another stimuli (the drive for complex derivatives that had perceived high returns) by packaging them up. In terms of looking back then yes it was stupid, but over the last few years they've made billions (literally) out of it. If Banks hadn't been agile in taking advantage of these new markets then they wouldn't have made those profits. These folks were not doing Banking 101, it was an advanced PhD in banking with an added DPhil, MSc and sauce on top. The other stimuli was the bonus culture which encouraged short termism. Its all about reacting to stimuli. Now comes to the former. What enabled them to make what are in retrospect amazingly bad decisions. The answer is plain and simple a lack of oversight, governance and regulation. Its only stupid in retrospect, 18 months ago it was the smartest thing in the world and people were praising the agility, flexibility and dynamism of the banking system. > >> The stimulus was both market demand and the perception >> that property prices would continue to rise, the reaction was very >> agile and very rapid. > > Again, there's nothing agile about greed and stupidity. Sorry mate, > but you just can't convince me that what they were doing in any way > was agile; 1. This was investing in a poorly held assumption about > what the future holds (market values) long term, while agility talks > about adapting to the Now. 2. The "flexibility" only went one way (the > banks were flexible to *give* the loan, but not flexible when the loan > didn't get paid back). That doesn't mean that part of the process (loan making and bundling) wasn't flexible and agile. This is my point about agility, you can't just make things agile in isolation, you have to look at the overall process and the impacts of agility. Quite clearly this wasn't done. Agility doesn't have to be smart. That is my point. > 3. This is not so much a financial breakdown as > it is a banking sector breakdown foremost. Unfortunately we're all > tied into that sector, showing us again how we need to be decoupled > and not rely on proprietary channels. :) What I want to know is how the hell are all these houses bought by people with no money worth so F'ing much? A couple of Trillion dollars has gone into rescuing the banks, if 3m people defaulted the houses would have to cost around $600k each for this to add up. > >> So in summary: Agility isn't always a good thing. > > Actually, I'll go the other way and claim that Agility is always a > good thing, except for certain people types. And, of course, you need > to know what Agile means outside of "flexible." :) The ability to react quickly to stimuli wasn't it? That is exactly what the banks did > >> Making things be >> agile that shouldn't be causes problems and risk and is a stupid thing >> to do. Sometimes rigidity is the right way to go about it and saying >> no and having a set way to work is the right thing. > > No one should claim to be Agile when they don't know what it means. I > think we can say the same about SOA, that if you don't know what it > entails, please don't do it as you will get your ass burned. Just like > the financial markets, don't agree to a sub-prime loan if you don't > know what it is. (And knowing what something is = being smart) I agree that ideally people should be smart, but what I'd say is that for me Agility is about the Pirelli moment. "Power is nothing without control". Agility should be tempered by Governance and regulation. Steve > > regards, > > Alex > -- > ---------------------------------------------------------- > Project Wrangler, SOA, Information Alchemist, UX, RESTafarian, Topic Maps > ------------------------------------------ http://shelter.nu/blog/ -------- >
