Reviewing some VC related guff, I came across this graph showing the 
likelihood of an angel investment cash-on-cash returns ... the curves 
clearly show that a portfolio of 100 startups is almost certain to keep 
dollar value (but perhaps not true after inflation) and has ~80% chance of 
doubling your money (dropping to 40% if only 10 punts). This raises an 
interesting question

- for Australian startup founders, before embarking on their dash for cash, 
should they put a portion of savings into a self-managed super fund with 
objective of cross-holdings in fellow startups?

- the problem being in that you are limited to 4 members (most likely the 
initial founders) how to structure it for multiple participants as well as 
potentially outsiders wanting exposure

- if such a SMSF can operate transparently and autonomously (ie low fees 
save for basic auditing/tax returns) how can the 100 startup firms be 
selected for the fund of funds? (assuming founders have wisdom of crowds 
and can pick peers they think have decent business prospects)

- given the tax situation, what would be the best balance between investing 
in own company (with consequential chances of catastrophic failure) vs 
socialsing the losses ... ie should one allocate 5/10/20% of undiluted 
equity as a mutual self-insurance scheme to make sure that the all-in 
approach is not going to leave one destitute?  


Thought to ponder 


[image: portfolio.jpg]

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