Hello, I agree that its misguided to conflate India's domestic problems, however grave, with India's foreign policy alternatives.
On Thu, Jul 21, 2011 at 7:01 PM, ss <cybers...@gmail.com> wrote: > On Wednesday 20 Jul 2011 5:47:18 pm M.K.Pai wrote: >> The point I was trying to make was that it does not matter what the >> Pakistanis say. What they do, matters. What we do, matters. >> > > While I have no disagreement with your statements, I think that in the post > 9-11 situation. the Pakistan army has tried to use the "India threat" to avoid > doing the job they were paid (by the US) to do in the north west - the Af-Pak > region. No. The Pakistani "establishment" has used that narrative for decades before 9/11, in fact ab initio. The wild north west is more current, thats all. But even that is a delusion. The real problem is in their Punjab not NWFP. I guess they will look at that after the next terrorist strike in Europe or US. > 26/11 is said to have been conducted just to provoke an Indian > response based on an old Pakistani military calculation - one that isopenly > stated by Pakistanis army spokespersons. > Again no. The Pakistani army spokespersons were responding to press questions about what their response would be if India went beyond the "Operation Parakram" stage. It is a normal soldier's reaction. The Pakistani "establishment" has been unanimous that it was a rogue operation. Of course, if you can point me to contrary evidence, I shall stand corrected. > 1. Any war with India will be short because the "international community" will > step in > 2. Because fo Pakistani nuclear weapons India will not have the gumption ot > the time to take over parts of Pakistan > This is where they have been completely correct so far. Their policy seems to have evolved from "help me or I'll commit suicide" to "help me or I'll take you down with me" There are limitations to that approach as they saw during Kargil. But we are unlikely to raise stakes until a. the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and b. the slowing of the Chinese economy and c. the partition of Afghanistan Politics in general, and international relations in particular, is darkness two inches ahead. I treat expressions like "natural ally", "strategic partner" or "long term foobar" with scepticism. The long term is made of far too many short terms. In the short term we often need to choose between the unpalatable and the unacceptable. Regards, -- Pai
