Eric B. Ramsay wrote:
It took Microsoft over 1000 engineers, $6 Billion and several years to
make Vista. Will building an AGI be any less formidable? If the AGI
effort is comparable, how can the relatively small efforts of Ben
(comparatively speaking) and others possibly succeed? If the effort to
build an AGI is not comparable, why not? Perhaps a consortium
(non-governmental) should be created specifically for the building of an
AGI. Ben talks about a Manhattan style project. A consortium could pool
all resources currently available (people and hardware), actively seek
private funds on a continuing basis and give coherence to the effort.
The answer is yes and no.
I have argued that the methodology and techniques that have been used in
AI for the last fifty years (and which are still being used for AGI) are
based on a seriously broken assumption. If I am right, then a Manhattan
Project that used current techniques would be a complete waste of money.
As for your comparison with Vista, this is both valid and not valid.
The software development techniques used to develop things like Vista
are atrocious, and would be a serious hindrance in the context of a
massively parallel AGI project. However, there are ways around this
problem that work especially well if the target is an AGI system.
These twin issues - the AI methodology problem and the problem of
managing ultra-complex software projects - are the two areas that I
have spent the last 25 years working on. I believe that I have found
solutions to each problem (rather, a tightly-coupled pair of solutions)
which are good enough to work.
I happen to believe that a Manhattan Project that took account of the
two problems, and used solutions similar to the ones that I have
proposed (or that I have researched: the second is not in the public
domain) would have a good chance of succeeding in a short timeframe.
But, alas, having the solution (if indeed I do have the solution) has
little to do with getting the solution actually accepted and
implemented. That is just not the way the world works.
So my dismal prognosis is that someone will eventually start a Manhattan
Project to build an AGI, and it will have all the stunning success of
the last time that anyone tried such a thing: Japan's "Fifth Generation
Project".
Richard Loosemore
-------------------------------------------
singularity
Archives: http://www.listbox.com/member/archive/11983/=now
RSS Feed: http://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/11983/
Modify Your Subscription:
http://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=4007604&id_secret=96140713-a54b2b
Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
