STRATFOR'S MORNING INTELLIGENCE BRIEF SITUATION REPORTS - Dec. 18, 2003
1255 GMT - UNITED STATES - U.S. claims for initial unemployment benefits were expected to fall to 365,000 for the week ended Dec. 13, according to a U.S. Labor Department report to be published on Dec. 18. 1250 GMT - SINGAPORE - Singapore's Home Affairs Ministry announced Dec. 18 that two Islamic militants being trained to take leadership positions in the Jemaah Islamiyah group have been arrested. The two men, identified as Muhammad Arif Naharudin, 20, and Muhammad Amin Mohamed Yunus, 21, reportedly belonged to a cell in Pakistan that was created in 1999 by former JA operations chief Hambali, who was arrested in August 2003 outside Bangkok and is being held at an undisclosed location. 1246 GMT - IRAQ - Former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein refuses to cooperate with CIA interrogators, denies that his government ever committed any human rights atrocities, and insists he still is Iraq's president, the New York Post reported on Dec. 18, citing unnamed U.S. officials. 1242 GMT - UNITED STATES - The euro climbed to a new high of $1.2423 against the U.S. dollar in early trading on Dec. 18 as investors continued to worry about the twin U.S. budget and trade deficits. 1238 GMT - ISRAEL - Israeli troops killed four armed Palestinians in gun battles early on Dec. 18 in the West Bank city of Nablus. Three were killed in the city's Old Quarter and the fourth -- believed to be a member of the Islamic Jihad militant group -- allegedly was killed while trying to plant a bomb near Israeli soldiers. A fifth Palestinian, allegedly on a suicide bombing mission, was captured. 1235 GMT - IRAQ - The head of the Iraqi Governing Council, Abdelaziz al-Hakim, said in London on Dec. 18 that Iran deserves reparations resulting from the 1980's Iran-Iraq war, but he cautioned that the matter needed to be discussed further. 1230 GMT - PAKISTAN - Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf said Dec. 18 that his country is prepared to be "bold and flexible" in dropping demands for the implementation of U.S. resolutions on Kashmir and meeting India "halfway" in reaching a peaceful settlement to the long-standing territorial dispute between them. India controls approximately 45 percent of Muslim-majority Kashmir. 1228 GMT - RUSSIA - Russian President Vladimir Putin said Dec. 18 in Moscow that he would seek re-election in the country's March 2004 presidential elections. 1222 GMT - IRAQ - Iraqi guerrillas ambushed and killed a U.S. soldier from the 1st Armored Division in Baghdad's al-Karradah neighborhood, U.S. military officials said Dec. 18. A U.S. soldier and an Iraqi translator were wounded in the ambush, the first such incident since the capture of Saddam Hussein. Earlier, guerrillas loyal to Hussein killed Shiite leader Muhannad al-Hakim in Baghdad's Amil district, while a crowd killed Baathist official Ali al-Zalimi in the southern city of Najaf. 1217 GMT - MEXICO - A World Bank report on Mexico said the country has benefited marginally in the 10 years since the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was implemented on Jan.1, 1994. However, many of the gains actually were due to reforms made before Mexico joined NAFTA, the bank's Dec. 18 report concluded. The World Bank also said Mexican benefits from NAFTA had been undermined by failures in domestic policy -- weak economic institutions, rigid labor laws and a poor education system. 1214 GMT - CHILE - Latin America and the Caribbean region recorded the first current account surplus in 50 years, due mainly to increased U.S. and Chinese demand for regional commodities exports, the Chile-based U.N. Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECCLAC) said on Dec. 18. 1207 GMT - UNITED STATES - U.S. trade negotiators have wrapped up free trade agreement talks with four Central American nations: El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua, the Financial Times reported on Dec. 18. The deal would phase out all tariffs on manufactured goods over 10 years and would eliminate tariffs on agricultural products over 20 years. The four Central American countries also would deregulate their economies and adopt strong intellectual property rules. Costa Rica walked out of the talks at the last minute due to disagreements over issues including telecommunications, textiles and agriculture. Bush administration trade officials said the agreement was a good deal, but it is likely to face resistance in Congress. 1202 GMT - THE NETHERLANDS - A Dutch official with the European Central Bank 's governing council warned on that if the euro strengthens too rapidly it could hurt the eurozone's economic recovery. Dutch Central Bank President Nout Wellink said on Dec. 18 that a stronger euro is one of the European economy's "risk factors." Many eurozone economists believe that if the euro continues to appreciate at its current pace it could reach $1.40 by the end of 2003. ************************************************************************ Geopolitical Diary: Thursday, Dec. 18, 2003 Events in Iraq are proceeding in a fairly predictable way. Most of the combat since the capture of Saddam Hussein appears to have been initiated by U.S. forces. As Samarra was a particularly difficult target, with U.S. troops cordoning off the town and conducting intense searches. There have been sporadic attacks by the guerrillas, including an explosion that killed 10 Iraqis -- although recent reports indicate that that incident was an accident. The United States is trying to press its advantage and the guerrillas are trying to appraise the damage to their operational security. The psychological warfare dimension is particularly active. The United States is letting it be known that documents captured with Hussein provided important intelligence about the guerrillas. In Baghdad, members of the U.S. command began to discuss the guerrilla command structure and the manner in which they make operational decisions. The message out of Baghdad was that the United States now knows a great deal about how the guerrillas operate. Washington has tried to create an avalanche of information -- not always completely consistent -- designed to badly rattle the guerrillas. It is likely that the campaign is working. The guerrilla leadership is desperately trying to figure out how badly it has been exposed and is moving its assets around to evade U.S. attacks. That should slow down attacks temporarily, but unless Washington is successful in locating, attacking and liquidating guerrilla forces before its intelligence grows stale, the guerrillas will be able to resume offensive operations. As troubled as they must be by their operational situation, the guerrillas' strategic situation continues to deteriorate even more quickly. Iran has indicated that it will sign an agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency on Dec. 18, ending its dispute with the International Atomic Energy Agency -- and by extension, solving a major outstanding issue with the United States. As the U.S.-Iranian relationship becomes firmer -- and Teheran expressed pleasure at Hussein's capture -- the pressure on the guerrillas becomes more intense. They are being squeezed on all levels. Not surprisingly, the United States has begun withdrawing nonessential diplomatic personnel from Saudi Arabia. As the pressure on the guerrillas increases, the incentive grows for jihadists to strike. Apart from striking back at the United States, jihadists want to supplant the secular Baathist leadership in Iraq and demonstrate their ability and willingness to sustain the anti-U.S. campaign. Their actions are not necessarily confined to Iraq. Indeed, they have greater capabilities in some other countries, most importantly Saudi Arabia. It follows that the United States is bracing for counterattacks there. Indeed, given the intense pressure Riyadh is bringing to bear on those sympathetic to al Qaeda, there is always the possibility of attacks -- on Americans and others -- in Saudi Arabia. However, with the situation in Iraq at least temporarily improving for the United States, there is a strong incentive on the part of al Qaeda and its sympathizers to divert the American focus away from Iraq by generating threats elsewhere. In terms of the broader war, the Islamists must make a two-stage analysis. First, they must get a handle on the precise situation in Iraq. It is easy to overreact to the events of the past few days, but it might well be that the guerrilla movement is not nearly as compromised as it might fear. However, if the situation has in fact deteriorated badly from the guerrillas' point of view, they must then make another decision. They can write off Iraq, withdraw their assets and carefully plan the next phase of the war. Alternatively, they can try to stabilize the situation in Iraq by forcing the United States to divert assets -- forces and intelligence -- to other theaters. To do this, al Qaeda must pose a new and unexpected threat to a regime that is of overriding importance to the United States, thus posing a challenge that Washington cannot decline and spreading American forces thin. Two areas come to mind: Saudi Arabia and Pakistan -- where President Gen. Pervez Musharraf was targeted for an apparent assassination attempt in recent days. It is not at all clear that the militant Islamists are able to generate this threat, nor is it certain yet that they need to. However, this is certainly what they are thinking intensely about today. _______________________________________________ Sndbox mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://a8.mewebdns-a8.com/mailman/listinfo/sndbox_sandboxmail.net
