STRATFOR'S MORNING INTELLIGENCE BRIEF
SITUATION REPORTS - Nov. 21, 2003
1248 GMT - MIDDLE EAST - Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon reiterated
Israel's commitment to the "road map" for peace on Nov. 20, saying, "We are
committed to the road map, as it was accepted by the government, and the
agreements between us and the Americans. Additionally, I don't rule out
unilateral steps." Although Sharon did not elaborate what those unilateral
steps may be, Israeli press reports speculated on the possibility of
changing the way the Israeli military operates in the occupied territories
and easing restrictions on the Palestinians. Sharon's comments followed the
announcement that five Palestinian militant groups will meet with Egyptian
mediators soon to discuss a possible cease-fire.
1245 GMT - IRAQ - The U.N. oil-for-food program in Iraq officially ends Nov.
21, and control of the multibillion-dollar humanitarian aid program will be
handed over to the Coalition Provisional Authority until June 2004.
1241 GMT - TURKEY - The British Foreign Ministry has warned citizens against
traveling to Turkey, saying there are indications that further terrorist
attacks may be in the works. The U.S. Department of State issued a similar
warning on Nov. 20. Meanwhile, British Foreign Minister Jack Straw is
meeting with his Turkish counterpart, Abdullah Gul, in Istanbul and is
expected to visit the bomb sites later today.
1238 GMT - TURKEY - Police arrested seven people in overnight raids in
Istanbul, in connection with the Nov. 20 suicide attacks against the British
Consulate and HSBC Bank, which killed 27 people, Turkish daily Hurriyet
reported. Police believe two Turkish nationals - who may have assisted the
bombers responsible for twin attacks against synagogues in the city on Nov.
15 - carried out the most recent strikes.
1234 GMT - INDONESIA - Indonesian police have seized 75 kilograms (165 lbs.)
of potassium, a material often used to make bombs, in a van found a half a
mile from the Juanda international airport in Surabaya, and they are
questioning the driver, officials say. Potassium was used in the bombs that
exploded at a Bali disco in October 2002, and one of those bombs was loaded
into a minivan similar to that found at the Indonesian airport checkpoint.
1229 GMT - MYANMAR - Regime officials are in the midst of discussions with
detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, and the talks are at a
"delicate juncture," Deputy Foreign Minister Khin Maung Win said in an
interview with the BBC, without further elaboration on the nature of the
talks. Myanmar has resisted international pressure to release Suu Kyi, who
was detained in May and transferred to house arrest after undergoing surgery
in October.
1226 GMT - IRAQ - At least two Iraqi civilians were injured Nov. 21 after
guerrillas fired rockets at, and struck, the Rashid Hotel, the Palestine
Hotel and the Iraqi Oil Ministry buildings in Baghdad, military officials
say.
1225 GMT - INDIA - At least seven people have been injured in a bomb attack
at a mosque during Friday prayers in the village of Parbani, in the western
Indian state of Maharashtra, local police said. Witnesses said three men
drove by the mosque on motorcycles and tossed a package into the building
just before the explosion.
1220 GMT - TURKEY - The Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigades, a purported al Qaeda
cell based in Turkey, has released a statement to Islamist Web site Al
Mujahidoun claiming responsibility for the twin car bombings in Istanbul on
Nov 20. The group also claimed responsibility for the Nov. 15 car bombings
against two synagogues in Istanbul. Another group, calling itself the
Islamic Great Eastern Raiders' Front, also has claimed both sets of
bombings.
1214 GMT - IRAQ - Ukrainian military sources say that a Polish military camp
in Iraq's Shiite region has been attacked with small arms and
grenade-launchers during the past 24 hours, but no information about
casualties was available. Meanwhile, investigations are continuing in both
Poland and Ukraine about widespread vodka smuggling: Sources say servicemen
from those two countries are selling vodka to Iraqis at $100 per half-liter.
0114 GMT - IRAQ - A U.S. convoy was attacked with explosives in Ar Ramadi on
Nov. 20, killing one soldier and wounding two.
0110 GMT - IRAQ - A Jordanian convoy returning from Al Fallujah to Amman was
attacked with small arms, wounding a truck driver.
0105 GMT - IRAQ - An officer from Moldova was wounded in an ambush on his
unit Nov. 20 at As Samara, in the Sunni Triangle, Moldovan military sources
told Stratfor.
************************************************************************
Geopolitical Diary: Friday, Nov. 21, 2003
The Ramadan offensive continued in Iraq on Nov. 20, intensifying
internationally with a second suicide bombing in Turkey. At least 27 people
were killed in two separate attacks: One was at the British Consulate in
Istanbul; the other was at HSBC, the world's second-largest bank,
headquartered in London. The bombings followed attacks on synagogues in
Istanbul on Nov. 15.
Attacking British targets certainly makes sense. With U.S. President George
W. Bush in London, al Qaeda wants to drive home the cost of allying with the
United States and to relay that Washington can't control the network. It is
undoubtedly hoping for some sort of reaction from the British public while
Bush is there. This attack is unlikely to change the politics of Britain
very much, but it is certainly worth the try from al Qaeda's point of view.
The more interesting question is why al Qaeda would have concentrated on
Turkey. Part of the answer might be that it simply has the capability to
strike there. Istanbul is a large, cosmopolitan city, with a great deal of
movement in and out. It has large numbers of Islamic and Arab travelers
passing through. Moving into Istanbul and establishing a base of operations
would be easier than moving into most countries in the West -- and Turkey is
near enough to being Western to have excellent targets available. Turkey has
a competent security service, but it would be overwhelmed sorting through
the throngs that pass through Istanbul every day.
That might be all the explanation necessary, but this explanation still
leaves us with a mystery. Turkey has a moderate Islamic government, which
behaved in a way that al Qaeda would want to encourage: It kept Turkish
troops from participating in the invasion and occupation of Iraq, and it
kept American troops from using Turkey as a base of operations. Unlike other
moderate Islamic governments, which have effectively collaborated with the
United States, Turkey's government has not.
One reason the Turkish government refused to collaborate was that it
intended to keep Ankara out of the line of fire. The Turkish military --
many of whose commanders wanted to work with Washington -- argued that al
Qaeda was an inherent and uncontrollable danger and that not throwing
Turkey's weight behind the American effort would reinforce al Qaeda's
strength and endanger Turkish national security. The government argued that
the blowback from siding with Washington would pose a greater threat to
Iraqi national security. The government won the fight.
The Nov. 20 attacks struck at the heart of Turkish national strategy. Turkey
wants to become part of Europe. The one thing the government and the
military agree upon is the economic benefit of integrating themselves into
the European economic and financial system. HSBC is precisely the kind of
European institution -- a very large bank - with which Turkey wants to have
close relationships. Istanbul is Turkey's door to the West, and HSBC is the
quintessential Western goody.
That is precisely what al Qaeda attacked. It attacked the British -- but it
also attacked the Turkish consensus that wants to find a way into Europe. It
would not take many more attacks on European banks to trigger a wholesale
exodus: Then the effect of the attack would be far more than symbolic.
In our view, Istanbul is a convenient place to attack under any
circumstances. But al Qaeda also was delivering a message to Turkey and
other moderate Islamic countries: There is more to al Qaeda's geopolitical
interests than not supporting the U.S. war in Iraq. Al Qaeda is opposed to
Islamic dependence upon Western economic interests, be they British, Jewish
or -- above all -- financial. In other words, al Qaeda is looking far beyond
the Iraq war and the current situation.
There are about five days before the end of Ramadan. It seems logical to
expect that al Qaeda not only will continue the offensive but expand it. We
note that U.S. security forces are as edgy as we are. The White House was
evacuated Nov. 20 because of a small, unidentified aircraft. Tensions are
running hot and will be at fever pitch on Nov. 23 and 24. We should remember
that al Qaeda does not like to attack during major security alerts. We also
should remember that everyone knows that. For us, the threat will remain
extremely high from now until the end of the year, and from our point of
view, this threat is global.
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