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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml;jsessionid=X4A5QS3F5V33DQFIQMGCFFWAVCBQUIV0?xml=/opinion/2007/12/09/do0906.xml There's a minefield just ahead in Kosovo By Mike Jackson Last Updated: 12:01am GMT 09/12/2007 Have your say Read comments It seems rather déjà vu to be contemplating a Balkan deadline again, but that is where we are with Kosovo. The UN established Monday, December 10 as the date by which Kosovo's future constitutional status was to be made clear. It is, sadly, anything but clear: the Albanian Kosovars expect independence, which Belgrade refuses to concede. We should not underestimate the volatility of this situation. While both Kosovar and Serb leaders claim to oppose the use of force to achieve their aims, the same cannot be said of the ethnic paramilitary groupings. How has this impasse come about? Interpretations of Kosovo's long and difficult history vary. To the Serbs, it is the cradle of their Orthodox civilisation: their heroic defeat by the Ottomans at the battle of Kosovo Polje, the Field of the Blackbirds, in 1398 is writ large in national mythology. To the Albanians, now 90 per cent of the two million population, Kosovo is their homeland, in which they were persecuted by the Serb administration. advertisement Slobodan Milosevic's blatant encouragement of Serb nationalism was at first matched by Ibrahim Rugova's illegal but non-violent Kosovar Albanian administration. In the late 1990s, however, the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) began operations against Serb forces. Serb reaction was uncompromising, and the prospect of further Balkan ethnic cleansing loomed. In January 1999 the brief ceasefire between the Serbs and the KLA, brokered by Richard Holbrooke, President Clinton's special envoy, failed following the massacre of Albanians at Racak. The factions met but reached no agreement and Milosevic ignored Nato's final ultimatum. Bombing began on March 24. The Blair government helped to persuade a reluctant Nato and US to commit to the use of armed forces; a controversial move because the Russians would not allow a UN Security Council resolution authorising it. Legality rested on the emerging doctrine that - in grave circumstances - a humanitarian imperative could overrule national sovereignty. After 78 days of bombing, Milosevic conceded to Nato's demands. Kosovo Force (KFOR), which I commanded, entered the province on June 12, 1999 with the authority of UN Security Council Resolution 1244, which stipulated that Kosovo was to remain part of Serbia under UN administration. The 1999 campaign did not remove the hatred between Serbs and Albanians, but it bought time for politics rather than violence to define an agreed end-state. Eight and a half years on, such an end-state has eluded the political process conducted by the former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari. The Kosovar Albanians insist on independence - the Serbs will not go beyond broad autonomy. Ahtisaari had to make his own judgment: independence, with continuing international supervision. Pristina accepted, Belgrade did not. Barring some last-minute miracle, this will still be the situation tomorrow. Russia would veto any further UNSCR route to independence. Hashim Thaqi's Kosovo government will therefore unilaterally declare independence from Serbia. Which countries would recognise this? The US and the UK almost certainly will, but the EU will split, albeit with a majority for recognition. Crucially, Russia almost certainly will not. At this point, we have a mess. It seems that UNSCR 1244 remains extant until the Security Council removes it - but Russia will not allow this. So what happens to the current UN mission in Kosovo? Do the staff of recognising countries leave, while those of non-recognising countries remain? What of KFOR? Will Kosovo qualify for UN membership? All of this will provide much work for diplomats and lawyers - but not, I fervently hope, for soldiers. I do not believe the Serbs would be so foolish as to invade Kosovo in the face of KFOR, but I do fear further ethnic violence, and thus the need for KFOR reinforcement - more pressure on our Armed Forces. I also have concern that this declaration may be seen as a useful precedent. In particular, Republika Srpska - the Bosnian Serb entity - must not be tempted to unravel the Dayton Agreements, which ended the Bosnian war in 1995. My last - somewhat heretical - thought is that perhaps the international community's aversion to boundary change should be re-examined in this case. The largest concentration of Kosovo Serbs live north of the River Ibar, adjacent to Serbia proper. This small area was transferred from Serbia to Kosovo only 40 years ago. A restoration might have merit. Overall, I suspect that the die is cast. Understandably, Kosovo's independence will go very hard in Serbia. The Serbian government's current sad predicament is Milosevic's wretched legacy, but all parties must now tread carefully. If Kosovo's independence really is to be the last piece of the Balkan jigsaw, there must be an unprecedented generosity of spirit in all concerned. General Sir Mike Jackson commanded KFOR and was Chief of the General Staff Have your say Looking for the perfect gift? Give the gift of Flickr! Ask a question on any topic and get answers from real people. Go to Yahoo! Answers and share what you know at http://ca.answers.yahoo.com [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] =============== Group Moderator: [Е-ПОШТА ЗАШТИЋЕНА] page at http://magazine.sorabia.net for more informations about current situation in Serbia http://www.sorabia.net Slusajte GLAS SORABIJE nas talk internet-radio (Serbian Only) http://radio.sorabia.net Yahoo! 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