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From: Eric Reeves <[email protected]>
Date: Sat, Apr 20, 2013 at 4:40 AM
Subject: THE DARFUR GENOCIDE AT TEN YEARS: A Reckoning
To: Eric Reeves <[email protected]>


THE DARFUR GENOCIDE AT TEN YEARS: A Reckoning

Eric Reeves, 19 April 2013

There is in Darfur no end in sight for conflict, murder, rape,
assaults on displaced persons camps, agricultural and village
destruction, brutal extortion schemes, and continuing violent human
displacement.  The primary targets of this mayhem overseen by the
National Islamic Front/National Congress Party regime in Khartoum
continue to be primarily civilians from African tribal groups
surviving tenuously in an increasingly chaotic Darfur; it is the
cruelest of counter-insurgency strategies, since the military
opponents of the regime are rebel groups that refuse to accept a peace
agreement contrived in Doha (Qatar), not ordinary farmers and
landholders.  Moreover, for several years an increasing number of Arab
tribal groups have been drawn into the fighting, often pitting one
Arab group against another; this has produced rapidly growing
"collateral damage" as Khartoum seeks to subdue Darfur by means of a
war of attrition in which impunity, chaos, and inter-ethnic violence
serve the regime's ultimate military and political purposes.  The
insecurity consequent upon such polices threatens international relief
organizations, many of which have already withdrawn or been expelled,
and many more are contemplating withdrawal.

International civilian protection—publicly called for since 2003—has
been disastrously inadequate.  Since January 1, 2008 the UN/African
Union Mission in Darfur (UNAMID) has failed miserably in providing
basic civilian protection, even as it began as the most expensive
peacekeeping operation in the world (and is now only one of three in
greater Sudan).  Throughout Darfur, even as humanitarian assistance is
increasingly attenuated and severely threatened, neither the UN nor
the AU will speak honestly about these realities, or risk any
confrontation with Khartoum and its primary supporters: the Arab
League, China, Russia, the Organization of Islamic Conference, and
sadly many within the AU.  On countless occasions public statements by
officials from both the AU and UN have been marked by either
disingenuousness or outright mendacity, particularly concerning levels
of violence, displacement, and humanitarian conditions and access.  Of
human mortality totals the UN has long ceased to speak for fear of
angering Khartoum; in fact, the extant evidence and data, while
certainly incomplete, strongly suggest that half a million people have
died from violence and its consequences: exposure, dehydration,
disease, and starvation. [1]

The international community, long unwilling to act meaningfully,
pretends that a raft of ignored UN Security Council resolutions—filled
with "Chapter 7 authority" and various "demands" that have gone
entirely unmet by Khartoum—is an adequate diplomatic response.  Peace
negotiations, under myriad auspices, produced first the disastrously
ill-conceived and ill-fated "Darfur Peace Agreement" (2006, Abuja)—an
agreement that ensured the fragmentation of Darfur's rebel movement.
More recently (July 2011) the "Doha Document for Peace in Darfur"
(DDPD) has served as the diplomatic point of departure, and touchstone
for all comments about ending violence in Darfur.  This is so even as
the DDPD has been overwhelmingly rejected by the major rebel groups
and Darfuri civil society, and whose terms have been almost entirely
ignored by the Khartoum regime since the time the agreement was signed
twenty-one months ago.

The "Responsibility to Protect" (unanimously ratified in the UN
General Assembly "Outcome Document" of September 2005 and UN Security
Council Resolution 1674 [April 2006]) is among the most serious and
conspicuous casualties of the Darfur genocide, and for evidence we
need look no further than current international failure to halt
Khartoum's ongoing campaigns of civilian annihilation in the Nuba
Mountains of South Kordofan and in Blue Nile. The impunity that
sustains the Khartoum regime in its serial atrocity crimes in these
two southern states grows directly out of the impunity that has
prevailed from the beginning of major violence in Darfur.  The
deliberate destruction of agricultural production in the Nuba and Blue
Nile should remind us of the systematic destruction of food-stocks and
seed-stocks, the poisoning of water sources, and the looting or
killing of livestock during the Darfur genocide.  These are all
actions that continue to be reported in Darfur, along with relentless
aerial bombardment that directly violates the UN Security Council
"demand" (Resolution 1591, March 2005) that all aerial military
assaults in Darfur be halted. [2]

And it is of course indiscriminate bombing of civilians and civilian
targets that for almost two years has defined Khartoum's military
assault on the Nuba and Blue Nile, where the regime permits no
humanitarian relief efforts to reach civilians in rebel-held
territory.  The bombing attacks—primarily conducted by highly
inaccurate Antonov cargo planes from which crude, shrapnel-loaded
barrel bombs are simply rolled out the cargo bay—are all war crimes
under the Rome Statute that provides the statutory basis for the
International Criminal Court.  Collectively the attacks constitute
crimes against humanity under the Statute.

So many and so great are the Khartoum regime's violations of
international humanitarian and human rights law in Darfur that a
detailed retrospective seems urgently required as violence reaches a
new crescendo throughout the region, and the prospects for peace
rapidly recede.  This brief is the first of several accounts focusing
on specific violations of international law—on this occasion analyzing
the tactic of deliberately disguising of military aircraft so as to be
either unidentifiable or appear to be those of the UN or humanitarian
organizations.

[ For a recent overview of security conditions in Darfur, see:

"Human Security in Darfur Enters Free-Fall," 20 March 2013 at
http://www.sudanreeves.org/?p=3838

For a recent overview of humanitarian conditions in Darfur, see:

"Humanitarian Conditions in Darfur: The most recent reports reveal a
relentless deterioration," 10 February 2013 at
http://www.sudanreeves.org/?p=3790 ]


Disguising Military Aircraft in a Humanitarian Theater

Resolution 1591, in addition to demanding a halt to all aerial
assaults in Darfur, created a UN Panel of Experts (on Darfur), both to
verify compliance with the demand that aerial military attacks be
halted and to monitor the arms embargo placed on the region.  The
earlier Panels did a commendable job, identifying not only egregious
violations of the arms embargo, but confirming a great many aerial
military attacks that violated Res. 1591.  Of particular note, the
earlier Panels also established early on that Khartoum was clearly
deploying aircraft disguised as UN aircraft or painted the white color
that ensures the humanitarian neutrality of planes and their cargo.
Perhaps in response, the regime has more recently settled on the
tactic of marking Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) aircraft with military
insignia far too small to be identified from the ground.

Such disguising of aircraft is an extremely serious violation of
international law.  The significance of such violation was very
recently highlighted in The New England Journal of Medicine (March 21,
2013; 368:12):

"In June 1968, a clearly marked Swedish Red Cross plane that was
flying relief supplies into the breakaway state of Biafra was shot
down by Nigerian fighters.  Before the was over, many relief planes
would be shot down and far more would crash because the Nigerian
government's shoot-to-kill order forced them to fly at night.  The
brazen targeting of Red Cross relief flights was hard to imagine.  In
the minds of some people, however, these attacks were justified by
another clear violation humanitarian neutrality: on at least one
occasion, a plane painted with the Red Cross insignia was actually
carrying weapons.  That rare instance of military action masquerading
as humanitarian relief completely undermined the neutrality of
everyone who operated by the accepted rules of humanitarian
assistance, cost the lives of both aid workers and aid recipients, and
provided a blanket of impunity for future criminal actions of the
Nigerian government." (p. 1073)

Given this ghastly precedent, why have the UN and the international
community been so reluctant to call forceful, consequential attention
to these violations in Darfur, which continue on a regular basis?  For
the use of disguised military aircraft continues to this day, as
confirmed to me by two highly experienced regional experts with
extensive knowledge of the situation on the ground in Darfur (emails
received April 17/18/19, 2013).  The UN Panel of Experts on Darfur has
repeatedly called attention to this violation of international law in
its publicly released UN reports, indeed has provided voluminous
evidence, both photographic and by means of eyewitness accounts from
vast numbers of Darfuris (all report titles, dates, and key findings
about disguised aircraft and ground vehicles may be found in Appendix
1 at http://www.sudanreeves.org/?p=3868); links to the all the reports
through 2009 can be found at a Small Arms Survey listing).  Here are a
few excerpts from the reports:

§45.    The Panel has evidence that the Government of the Sudan leased
at least one Mi-8 helicopter from a local leasing company of foreign
origin. This "white" helicopter has been at the centre of controversy,
as it was reported to be previously leased by AMIS and was later
leased to the Government of the Sudan with the AMIS sign still affixed
(as shown in fig. 2). The continued use of unmarked and/or white
helicopters for military use indicates reluctance on the part of the
Government to seriously consider the threat this action poses for the
United Nations and AMIS.

§46.    On several occasions SLA and NMRD [rebel] operatives have
threatened to shoot down any white helicopters, including United
Nations and AMIS [African Union Mission in Sudan] helicopters, that
fly over certain areas in Darfur. They claim this is in response to
the Government's practice of using white helicopters similar to those
used by the United Nations and AMIS. This situation has led to at
least one incident where United Nations pilots had to take evasive
action to avoid bullets fired from the ground, reportedly by members
of SLA.  (April 2006 report; AMIS was the exceedingly small and weak
predecessor to UNAMID)

Offensive military overflight

§201. On 30 June 2006, Panel members travelling by UNMIS helicopter
visited Umm Sidr, a position in Northern Darfur held by the G19
["Group of 19" rebel force]. During discussions with some of the rebel
leaders, soldiers and villagers, at about 1200 hours they observed an
unmarked white Antonov aircraft circling the area for approximately 45
minutes. The villagers and rebel leaders told the Panel that it was a
Government of the Sudan military aircraft, painted white to camouflage
as a United Nations or AMIS aircraft, that such intimidating
overflights were a regular occurrence in their area, and that they
felt threatened as the aircraft often came close to the ground. The
Panel members noted the location of the place on the GPS monitor at
25° 09' 15" East and 14° 25' 23" North. (Panel report to the Security
Council, October 2006)

The reports offer a great many other highly detailed examples:

(Figure 9, Unmarked white Antonov aircraft at El-Fasher airport 7 August 2006)

§207.    Contrary to the claim of the Government of the Sudan, on 7
August, the Panel saw one white Antonov aircraft stationed at the
El-Fasher airport bearing two numbers: one on its tail (7705) and
another on its body (26563) (see fig. 9). The aircraft did not bear
any emblem or logo. Since the aircraft was guarded by the Sudanese
Armed Forces, it is believed to be a Government of the Sudan aircraft.
(August 2007 report)

The October 2008 report by the Panel of Experts gives the broadest
sense of their collective findings:

            SAF white aircraft:

§89.    In all of its reports to date the Panel has recorded the
ongoing use of white aircraft in Darfur by SAF [the Sudan Armed
Forces]. The Panel continued to observe such activities, involving
both rotary and fixed-wing aircraft, during the present mandate.

Human Rights Watch drew all the appropriate conclusions in their
important report of September 2007 ("Chaos by Design"):

"Government forces have used military aircraft painted white—the color
used by UN and AMIS forces—for reconnaissance, supply operations, and
attacks. At a distance, the aircraft resemble United Nations and AMIS
planes and Mi-8 helicopters; sometimes they even have UN markings. Use
of these white aircraft for military purposes is a violation of
international humanitarian law, specifically the improper use of the
United Nations emblem, and, when simulating the protected status of
peacekeeping forces and humanitarian operations to conduct attacks,
the prohibition against perfidy. Use of these planes puts genuine UN,
humanitarian, and AMIS flights at risk because rebels might mistake
them for legitimate military targets. People in desperate need of aid
may flee from humanitarian flights if they cannot distinguish them
from government military aircraft. [36]

[36] UN Panel of Experts, “Interim report of the Panel of Experts
established pursuant to resolution 1591 (2005) concerning the Sudan,
submitted pursuant to resolution 1713 (2006),” unpublished, paras.
93-98 and 136.

The Human Rights Watch report continued:

"The United Nations has in the past urged the Sudanese government not
to use white aircraft that resemble its own, saying it endangers the
peacekeepers. The UN Panel of Experts' 2007 report described multiple
sightings of white helicopters in Darfur during 2007. The report
described two white Mi-171 helicopters painted with military
registrations, neither of which displayed a Sudanese flag painted on
the aircraft. 'The Panel believes this is a method to further conceal
their identity so that from a moderate distance they resemble United
Nations or AMIS Mi-8 helicopters used in Darfur.'"



"Photos from the report, all dated from 2007, show a white Fantan A-5
helicopter at Nyala airport, a white Mi-24 at Khartoum International
Airport, a white Antonov (An-12) plane at El-Geneina, a white Antonov
(An-26) with UN markings at El Fasher, and another white Antonov
(An-26) at Khartoum airport.



"The UN Panel of Experts said, 'the extensive use of white aircraft by
the Government of the Sudan, including the use of white Antonov
aircraft in some of the 66 aerial attacks catalogued by the Panel
between September 2006 and July 2007, constitutes a serious
obstruction to the work of AMIS and the United Nations. In one
instance the Panel found that the Government of the Sudan had used a
white Antonov aircraft with "UN" markings in offensive military
overflights' A Security Council resolution prohibits Sudan from
conducting offensive military flights in and over the Darfur region."



The highly authoritative Small Arms Survey (Geneva) provided a
detailed account of the aircraft in question:



"Russian Mi-17 and Mi-32 helicopter gunships, Sukhoi and MiG-29
fighter jets, and Chinese-made A-5 'Fantan' jets have all been sighted
in Darfur, as well as white Antonov 26 transport aircraft used as
crude bombers. The UN Panel has provided evidence that Antonovs have
been painted white—the colour of many UN and relief agency planes
flying in Darfur. One had 'UN' painted on a wing in a clear attempt to
disguise its identity." (November 2010)

The follow year (2008) Sudan Tribune reported on another highly
consequential violation, one of many that could have been reported:

"A white helicopter not marked with the UN emblem or any identifiable
markings was seen Monday flying over a southern area of North Darfur
state, where the majority of villages are controlled by the rebel
Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) faction led by Abdel Wahid Al-Nur.

"White government aircraft have previously attacked civilians in both
the current conflict in Darfur and during Sudan's 1983-2005 civil war.
A September 2007 report to the UN Security Council by a five-person
panel of experts revealed that white-painted government military
planes were used for aerial surveillance, arms shipments and attacks
on villages. Consistent use of white aircraft for military operations
could make them a more likely target for rebel fighters, thus raising
the danger for UN aircrews. Rebels from both SLA and Justice and
Equality Movement (JEM) have already demonstrated their ability to
down helicopters in multiple confirmed instances." (Sudan Tribune,
September 23, 2008)

The danger to peacekeepers was underscored in the same Sudan Tribune dispatch:

"A helicopter of the hybrid peacekeeping force was shot at in western
Darfur on [Monday] August 11, [2008] and another was damaged by
gunfire on September 14, [2008] as it was on its way to Shangil Tobaya
from Tawila town, about 37 km before Shangil Tobaya UNAMID base camp.
In this instance [of a SAF disguised aerial military flight], the
helicopter appears to have been scouting an area southeast of
Kabkabiya."

Again, the Panel of Experts was explicit in its findings about not
only disguised white SAF aircraft, but the actual use on the UN emblem
on aircraft:

"The panel noted with concern that the [SAF] plane had a UN logo
painted on the top of its left wing."

The dangers created by such disguise are made all too explicit by the
Panel in its October 2008 report:

"§92. The Panel gained first-hand knowledge of this threat on 11
August 2008, when a white United Nations Mi-8 helicopter transporting
the Panel to the Jebel Moon area of Darfur for a verification mission
was targeted and fired upon by JEM combatants. Subsequent
communications with JEM on the issue revealed that the combatants on
the ground had mistaken the United Nations aircraft for a Government
white helicopter and as such perceived it to be a viable military
target."

All this should be borne in mind not only for Darfur, but for South
Sudan, where Khartoum also uses disguised white or UN-marked aircraft
to deliver military supplies to the increasingly violent rebel force
of David Yau Yau in Jonglei State, as well as other renegade rebel
groups.  The Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) mistakenly shot
down a Russian helicopter from the very area in Jonglei where this
aerial re-supply has occurred; and yet it was not Khartoum that was
the focus of international outrage but Juba.  Coming so quickly in the
wake of the shoot-down, and in the absence of an investigation, such
condemnation was entirely premature (see
http://www.sudanreeves.org/?p=3669). That Khartoum has not been held
accountable—either for its disguised military aircraft in Darfur or
its similar tactics in supplying Yau Yau—does much to explain the
regime's diplomatic intransigence.

[ Reports from the ground in South Sudan also indicate that at on at
least one occasion crude "UN" lettering was painted on an SAF
aircraft, with the two letters disproportionate in size. ]

In Darfur, reports of disguised military aircraft have continued to
pour in from a range of sources—including various reports from the UN
Panel of Experts on Darfur—and it is clear that the practice
continues.  As a token gesture Khartoum sometimes now puts on its
military aircraft very small SAF roundels or and a tactical (military)
SAF registration on the tail or body (usually a four-digit number).
But these are both far too small to be seen or identified from the
ground, especially on an Antonov, which frequently flies as high as
5,000 meters so as to avoid ground fire.  This is an obvious and
highly consequential violation of Preambular Paragraph 7, Resolution
1841 (2008), which "[demands] that there should be no aerial bombings
nor the use in Darfur, by any party of the conflict, of white aircraft
or aircraft with markings resembling those on United Nations
aircraft."

Much of this was detailed in an extraordinary report by former members
of the UN Panel of Experts (on Darfur) that first appeared in .early
in 2012.  There they observe that:

"As during previous mandates, the Members of the Panel have on
numerous occasions (detailed below) observed white Antonov-26 and
Antonov-32 aircraft on the military aprons at both El Fasher and Nyala
airports, marked with small military (numerical) registrations,
operated by military personnel, and in El Fasher surrounded by visible
aircraft bombs."

It is also reliably reported from the region that SAF Antonovs
sometimes carry Sudanese civilian registrations alongside their
military registrations.  An eyewitness reports that one SAF aircraft
often seen in Darfur is all-white, with no markings except very small
SAF roundels. This is an Ilyushin-76, formerly ST-AZZ of Azza
Transport.  It is reportedly used for military transport rather than
aerial assaults, but still constitutes a significant violation of
international law and the relevant UN Security Council resolutions.

Why has nothing been done in response to this outrageous endangerment
of humanitarians and peacekeepers traveling by air?  To be sure, the
U.S., the UN Secretariat, and the EU on occasion register their
disapproval:

"The European Union condemned on Tuesday the Sudanese military's use
of white aircraft in strife-torn Darfur, calling it a deliberate
attempt to create confusion with UN planes. 'The European Union calls
on the Sudanese authorities to put an immediate end to the military
operations which started a few days ago in Darfur,' the bloc's French
presidency said in a statement. 'It condemns the use of white aircraft
in these operations, which is deliberately intended to create
confusion with United Nations aircraft,' it said, calling on all
parties to abide by international law." (Agence France-Presse
[Brussels], September 23, 2008)

But of course such condemnations are completely ignored by Khartoum;
it is likely that the EU issued a similar statement the preceding
year, and subsequently—to no effect, with not credible threat of
sanctions.  Indeed, in the end it was the regime's own blustering
anger that seems to have forestalled sanctions by the UN Security
Council, which actually has a committee tasked with monitoring Darfur
sanctions issues.  In 2007, in response to the leaked UN Panel of
Experts report, Khartoum's representative to the UN fulminated
mindlessly, but with clearly implicit threats:

"Sudan lashed out on Thursday at a leak of a UN report that accused
Khartoum of violating an arms embargo by flying military aircraft in
Darfur and painting planes to make them look like UN aircraft.
Khartoum's UN ambassador, Abdalmahmood Abdalhaleem, in a letter to the
head of the Security Council's sanctions committee on Sudan, said the
'enemies of peace and stability in Sudan' leaked the report to
overshadow recent positive peacekeeping developments for turbulent
Darfur, where 2 million people have been made homeless. The report was
compiled by outside experts for the council's committee, which
includes all 15 member nations, and was published by The New York
Times on its Web site on Tuesday." (Reuters [UN/New York], April 19,
2007)

Those who leaked this report, compiled by distinguished experts in
their respective fields, are "enemies of peace and stability in
Sudan"—and faced with such "enemies," Khartoum will take the
opportunity to expel any who might be among their number.  Of course
the first major expulsions were to be of humanitarian relief
organizations: thirteen were expelled in March 2009, representing
roughly the total humanitarian capacity in Darfur at the time (there
had been previous expulsions and many subsequently).  The "expulsion"
of the UN Panel of Experts, authorized by a UN Security Council
Resolution, proved to be more difficult and required different
tactics.  Putting immense pressure on the feckless UN Secretariat—and
assisted by arms suppliers China and Russia (China has repeatedly
objected to reports that name Beijing as a violator of the Darfur arms
embargo)—Khartoum demanded in effect that newly mandated Panel members
be to their liking.  And over time they have got their way.  This
acquiescence comes at considerable cost to the effectiveness of the
international presence in Darfur.

The Panel made clear in its October 2007 report that its work was
already seriously compromised by Khartoum's actions:

"the use of white Antonov aircraft in some of the 66 aerial attacks
catalogued by the Panel between September 2006 and July 2007,
constitutes a serious obstruction to the work of AMIS and the United
Nations."

Undoubtedly there were a great many more such attacks that went
un-cataloged—perhaps many times as many.  The refusal to take such
concerns seriously, the refusal of the UN Security Council to support
its own Panel of Experts, was one reason that three of the most
capable former members of the Panel circulated to the Security Council
last year an unofficial report on the situation in Darfur, one that
contrasted sharply with the inept and slovenly report by the
"official" Panel covering the same period of time (see
http://www.sudanreeves.org/?p=3058).  The current nominations for the
Panel are indeed much more to Khartoum's liking; several are of Arab
descent or from Arab countries or are known to have pro-Khartoum
sympathies—hardly appropriate choices given Arab/non-Arab tensions in
Darfur—and their qualifications and neutrality have been sharply
questioned by those who know their work best.  All three former
experts resigned from the Panel in disgust at the politicization of
the work in Darfur, and the carelessness with which this critical
research is destined to be conducted for the foreseeable future.

Conclusion

What is perhaps most striking about the reports is the precipitous
fall-off in accounts by the Panel of disguised or white-painted
aircraft and ground vehicles. The report of November 2008 runs to many
pages on the subject; the report of October 2009 has no references to
white or disguised aircraft—none.  Intervening of course is the March
2009 expulsion of thirteen humanitarian organizations, together
constituting roughly half the relief capacity in the region.  News and
human rights organizations had been barred from Darfur for some time,
and the intimidation of UNAMID increased dramatically during this
period.  Denials of access and aggressively hostile accusations become
standard burdens for the Mission.  In 2008, the first year of UNAMID's
official deployment, Khartoum mounted two extremely serious military
attacks on UNAMID—one with SAF forces, another deadly assault by means
of militia proxies (see http://www.sudanreeves.org/?p=2200 and
http://www.sudanreeves.org/?p=2219).   More recently, the October 2012
attack on a large, well-armed UNAMID convoy attempting to investigate
atrocity crimes at Hashaba (North Darfur) was also the work of
regime-allied militias.  In this attack one peacekeeper was killed and
several seriously wounded (see http://www.sudanreeves.org/?p=3525).

There can be little doubt that both the UN and AU have been thoroughly
intimidated, and despite the Status of Forces Agreement (January
2008)—guaranteeing UNAMID freedom of access—such access has not and
will not be granted, not without international pressure of a sort not
seen in the more than five years of UNAMID's existence.  Most
consequentially, UNAMID has proved itself—as a UN/AU
"hybrid"—incapable of halting Khartoum's continuing use of disguised
military aircraft, inviting precisely the sort of disaster that
occurred in Nigeria in summer 1968.  There are few better measures of
the Khartoum regime's callousness than such conspicuous violation of
international law.

NOTES:

[1]       The last professional epidemiological study of mortality in
Darfur was conducted by the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of
Violence (CRED) (Olivier Degomme and Debarati Guha-Sapir in “Patterns
of mortality rates in Darfur conflict,” The Lancet, January 23, 2010
(pages 294-300,
http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2809%2961967-X/abstract).
 Although likely accurate in its estimate of those who had perished
from the consequences of violence—primarily displacement without the
resources necessary for survival—the report bewilderingly uses a fully
discredited UN State Department estimate for violent mortality in the
first year of conflict—perhaps the most violent and destructive year
of all.  This leads to a gross understatement of overall violent
mortality.  The document is also very poorly informed in its
understanding of the dynamics and history of the conflict in Darfur,
and Sudanese political history generally.  The report was also unable
to take advantage of important data promulgated in summer 2010 by
"Darfurian Voices"; it was on the basis of these data that I
calculated approximately 300,000 had died directly from violence (or
its immediate aftermath), and approximately 200,000 from the effects
of that violence (this is the figure that accords with the CRED
finding).  There have been no mortality studies of any sort since my
effort of August 2010, more than two and a half years ago
(http://www.sudanreeves.org/?p=2269).


[2]       The actual language of Resolution 1591 is important: "[The
UN Security Council] Demands that the Government of Sudan, in
accordance with its commitments under the 8 April 2004 N’djamena
Ceasefire Agreement and the 9 November 2004 Abuja Security Protocol,
immediately cease conducting offensive military flights in and over
the Darfur region."  This includes all military flights, since the
Darfur theater does not provide occasion for "defensive" military
flights.   All military flights are thus ipso facto violations of this
"demand."

The rebel groups have no military aircraft, so they cannot be used as
a justification for aerial military responses by Khartoum.  Military
aircraft might conceivably be used to defend threatened military
positions, but such a joint ground/air operation seems exceedingly
unlikely and almost certainly beyond the ability of the SAF air force.
 The blunt truth now is the same as it was more than eight years ago
when Resolution 1591 was passed by the Security Council: the
overwhelming number of aerial attacks are directed not against
military targets, but civilians and civilian resources—mainly by
Antonov cargo planes, which have no militarily useful bombing
accuracy.  The violations of the arms embargo on Darfur, which has
never meant anything to the regime, are also conducted by military
aircraft.

As the UN Panel of Experts put the matter in its October 2008 report:

Offensive military overflights

§95.    In line with past practice the Panel continues to define as
offensive military overflights acts falling within the following
categories:

(a) Disproportionate use of aircraft beyond that which is required to
neutralize a clear and imminent threat;

(b) Unprovoked attack with aircraft, such as strafing or
indiscriminate bombardment of civilian targets;

(c) Use of aircraft in support of ground operations preparing for or
engaging in an attack;

(d)  Retaliatory attack, i.e. action in response to a prior attack;

(e)  Flights that deposit troops for participation in an attack;

(f)  Operation of aircraft in such a manner to intimidate, frighten or harass;

For example, flying mock attack runs, circling over an area for a
considerable period of time, destroying buildings with rotor wash,
generating sonic booms, etc.

Since the passage of Resolution 1591, more than 500 confirmed
offensive bombing attacks against civilians in Darfur have been
recorded (see www.sudanbombing.org/data spreadsheet).


 APPENDIX—This Appendix includes all references to disguised white
aircraft (as well as to SAF use of the UN logo) as well as to
disguised white ground vehicles—from all Panel reports through 2009
(Appendix available at http://www.sudanreeves.org/?p=3868).

--

Eric Reeves
Smith College
Northampton, MA  01063
       413-585-3326
       [email protected]

Eric Reeves' new book-length study of greater Sudan (Compromising With
Evil: An archival history of greater Sudan, 2007 - 2012) is available
in eBook format, at no cost: www.CompromisingWithEvil.org


Websites:   www.sudanreeves.org

                 www.sudanbombing.org

                 www.CompromisingWithEvil.org


Skype: ReevesSudan
Twitter: @SudanReeves

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