---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: John Ashworth <[email protected]> Date: Fri, Nov 22, 2013 at 9:09 AM Subject: [sudan-john-ashworth] Doubts about LRA 'surrender talks' To: Group <[email protected]>
It is sensible to be cautious about negotiations with LRA, based on past experience. On the other hand, no opportunity to resolve such a long-running and destructive conflict peacefully should ever be ignored. John BEGIN 1. Central African Republic held surrender talks with warlord Kony - U.N., A.U. Wed, Nov 20 2013 UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - The Central African Republic has been in contact with warlord Joseph Kony and his Lord's Resistance Army fighters to urge them to surrender, but Kony's whereabouts are still unknown, the United Nations and the African Union said on Wednesday. Kony, who has been indicted for war crimes by the International Criminal Court in The Hague, waged a brutal guerrilla war against Ugandan government in the north of the country for nearly two decades, before fleeing with his fighters into the jungles of central Africa around 2005. A 5,000-strong African Union Regional Task Force, supported by about 100 U.S. Special Forces, has been hunting Kony and his fighters. Most of them are thought to be hiding in jungles straddling the borders of Central African Republic, South Sudan and Democratic Republic of Congo. "The current military pressure has kept the LRA, including its leader Joseph Kony, on the run," the AU's special envoy on the LRA, Francisco Madeira, told the U.N. Security Council. "This heightened pressure forced the LRA to try his time-tested tricks of buying time by duping the CAR authorities into "negotiations" to purportedly allow Kony and his LRA to "surrender" and re-settle in Nzako, CAR," he said. Instead, Madeira said, according to the Regional Task Force Kony has used the negotiations as a window of opportunity to relocate many of his fighters to north-eastern CAR. Madeira and the head of the U.N. Regional Office for Central Africa, Abou Moussa, who also briefed the council, said that Michel Djotodia, interim president of the virtually lawless Central African Republican, told them he had contacted Kony. "His people have been in contact with him (Kony), and they wanted to encourage him to surrender," Madeira told reporters after the briefing. "Many reports indicate that he is suffering from some serious illness, uncharacterized illness." Djotodia became interim CAR president after northern Seleka rebels seized the capital, Bangui, in March and ousted President Francois Bozize. Since then the landlocked, nation of 4.6 million people has slipped into chaos. Kony and his commanders are accused of abducting thousands of children throughout the region to use as fighters in a rebel army that earned a reputation for chopping off limbs as a form of discipline. "Military operations have degraded the LRA and limited it to pursuing survival tactics. However, recent attacks in South Sudan attributed to the LRA are a reminder that the group remains a serious and unpredictable threat to communities throughout the sub-region," Moussa told the Security Council. (Reporting by Michelle Nichols; editing by Christopher Wilson) http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/11/20/uk-un-centralafrica-kony-idUKBRE9AJ1C520131120 END1 2. Joseph Kony: US doubts LRA rebel leader's surrender BBC 21 November 2013 Last updated at 22:08 GMT US officials have cast doubt on reports that Ugandan rebel leader Joseph Kony is negotiating his surrender in the Central African Republic (CAR). A US State Department official told the BBC that some rebels had been in contact but Kony was not among them. However, CAR officials later insisted that Kony, who is wanted for alleged war crimes, has been in talks with their government. The US has offered up to $5m (£3.3m) for leads resulting in his arrest. Kony founded the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) in northern Uganda more than 20 years ago, and his fighters are notorious for abducting children to serve as sex slaves and child soldiers. The US official also noted that Kony had previously used "any and every pretext to rest, regroup, and rearm, ultimately returning to kidnapping, killing, displacing and otherwise abusing civilian populations". The LRA was forced out of Uganda in 2005 and since then has wreaked havoc in CAR, South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Kony was on the verge of signing a peace deal in 2008 but insisted that the International Criminal Court (ICC) first drop its arrest warrant, which it refused to do. On Wednesday, a CAR government spokesman told the BBC that Kony was in the country but wanted his security to be guaranteed before giving himself up. According to AFP news agency, CAR leader Michel Djotodia, said: "Joseph Kony wants to come out of the bush. We are negotiating with him." A US State Department official said Washington was aware that CAR authorities had "been in contact for several months with a small LRA group in CAR that has expressed interest in surrendering". But later on Thursday, a spokesman for Mr Djotodia told the BBC's Newshour radio programme that the president had had a phone conversation with Kony, who was in the remote Central African town of Nzoka "with nearly 7,000 people, with his whole group, women and children". BBC Africa security correspondent Moses Rono says this is not the first time that a breakthrough has been reported with the LRA. But he says that Kony is now a shadow of his former self, reportedly in fading health, having lost many fighters and operating in a volatile region, with armed gangs keen to earn the $5m reward. The African Union's special envoy on the LRA, Francisco Madeira, told the UN Security Council on Wednesday he had seen reports that Kony was suffering from a "serious, uncharacterised illness". In April the Ugandan army suspended a search for Kony in CAR, blaming "hostility" from the government formed when Mr Djotodia's rebel forces seized power there. Some 3,000 African troops, backed by 100 US special forces, have been hunting him and his fighters across the region. Mr Madeira said the military pressure had kept Kony and the LRA "on the run". Kony claims the LRA's mission is to install a government in Uganda based on the Biblical Ten Commandments. But he is wanted by the International Criminal Court in The Hague on charges of rape, mutilation and murder of civilians, as well as forcibly recruiting children to serve as soldiers and sex slaves. Analysis Moses Rono BBC Africa security correspondent We have been here before. There were even better prospects when former Ugandan official Betty Bigombe made direct contact with Kony. What is slightly different this time is Kony is a shadow of his former self, reportedly in fading health, having lost many fighters and operating in a volatile region. In South Sudan, he does not have sanctuary - since Khartoum stopped support. A local vigilante group on the border with Uganda and CAR has been protecting people against LRA attacks. In DR Congo, a robust UN mission has just helped the local army defeat M23 rebels. This force could be easily deployed to help in the hunt for Kony. In CAR, near-anarchy makes it relatively easy for regional armies hunting him to cross the border and capture him. Armed gangs in the chaotic nation could also seek to catch him to claim the $5m bounty offered by the US. After two decades on the run, Kony is short of options. That he has reportedly talked of possible surrender indicates how desperate he is. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-25036874 END2 3. The backstory on Kony’s “surrender talks” By Paul Ronan The Resolve 21 November 2013 This week numerous media outlets have reported that LRA leader Joseph Kony is in “surrender talks” with authorities in Central African Republic. These reports, which stem from misinterpretation of a briefing by the UN SRSG Abou Moussa and AU LRA envoy Francisco Madeira to the UN Security Council yesterday, are almost certainly false. Here’s more of the real story, based on interviews I conducted in Bangui in late October 2013 and insight from other LRA experts, particularly@lediocakaj. Kony and Djotodia: Pen Pals? In August, an LRA group acting under the command Maj. Otto Ladeere delivered two letters to community members near the town of Nzako, in CAR’s Haut Kotto Mbomou province. One was addressed to CAR’s transitional president, Michael Djotodia, and the other to local authorities in Nzako. In the letters and subsequent follow-up, the LRA group claimed that they wanted to lay down their arms and settle in CAR, and that other LRA commanders, including Kony, were interested in doing the same. However, there was – and remains – no evidence that the LRA’s letter was actually authorized by Kony or represents his desire to defect (more on that below). Djotodia received the LRA’s letter, and promptly sent a response back to the LRA group. Though the exact contents have not been released publicly, it reportedly encouraged the LRA to defect and expressed the CAR authorities’ willingness to facilitate the process. Djotodia designated General Demane*, a close ally, to spearhead these efforts. Meanwhile, local authorities in Nzako designated an elder community leader to serve as an interlocutor with the LRA. He reportedly stays with the LRA group periodically and has visited their camp, but little is known of his background or involvement. In September, following the delivery of Djotodia’s letter to Ladeere’s group, contact between the LRA and CAR authorities intensified. CAR authorities communicated to the UN peacebuilding mission in CAR (BINUCA) that the LRA group was planning to surrender in Nzako on September 24. BINUCA and the US government sent a joint mission to Nzako that day, but no LRA members materialized. However, over the next few days a civil society delegation traveled to Banale, a small mining community east of Nzako that lies closer to the LRA camp. They brought with them rope, tarps, and food, which were likely procured by General Demane on the LRA’s request. On October 8, Nzako authorities and Seleka troops under General Demane traveled to meet with the LRA. There they reportedly conducted a ritual ceremony with the LRA to cement their “friendship” in which two sheep were sacrificed. Another local delegation visited the LRA camp near Banale on October 15, delivering more food (mostly cassava and groundnuts) and medicine to the group. In the following days, the LRA groups reportedly moved further west, crossing the Mbari River and settling approximately 20km east of Nzako. On October 24, CAR authorities again communicated that LRA members planned to defect in Nzako. Though none showed up that day, five LRA representatives reportedly travelled to Nzako the next day and spent several days meeting with local authorities and community leaders before returning to the bush, reportedly with plans to return with a larger group to defect. However, November 3, another planned date for the LRA to come out, came and passed with no new defections. What will happen next remains unclear, especially as the LRA group reportedly has told local community members that unless international aid groups provided them with more supplies, they will go back into the bush. Meanwhile, eyewitnesses in Nzako report that Seleka troops have forced community members to procure food and deliver it to the LRA, effectively putting civilian lives at risk to feed a dangerous rebel group. Moussa and Madeira, the leading UN and AU diplomats on LRA issues, were in Bangui in late October to meet with authorities in CAR, including Djotodia. One of the key issues on the agenda was discussing how to respond to the LRA group’s contact with CAR authorities, with Moussa and Madeira cautioning Djotodia against providing further material support to the LRA. It was based on these meetings that they briefed the UN Security Council and inadvertently set off a media firestorm. A genuine defection opportunity, or a ruse? Djotodia and CAR authorities would be well served to be more skeptical of the LRA group’s expressed desire to defect. The LRA has exploited negotiations processes for their own benefit in the past, most recently during the Juba peace talks from 2006-2008, which has many parallels in the current situation in Nzako. As they did in Juba, the LRA is greatly exaggerating the size of their group, telling CAR authorities it ranges between 1,000-2,000 (and even more) when Cakaj’s most recent estimate of the LRA’s size places it between 500- 600. This exaggeration could be a tactic to acquire additional food supplies that can be sent to other groups or used once the LRA abandons the negotiations, a ruse the LRA utilized effectively during the Juba talks. The timing of the LRA’s outreach is also reminiscent of the Juba talks. The LRA’s agreement to start peace talks in 2006 occurred after they had fled to DR Congo as a result of increasing military pressure and a hostile political environment in their former strongholds in South Sudan. Similarly, the LRA has faced a surge of military pressure so far this year. A March raid on LRA camps in Kafia Kingi by Ugandan troops operating under the AU Regional Task Force (RTF) disrupted one of Kony’s favorite safe havens, and in recent months Uganda troops have resumed operations in CAR that had been suspended following the March coup in Bangui. In September, AU RTF troops from South Sudan and DR Congo destroyed two major LRA camps in Congolese territory that had served as rear supply bases for senior LRA commanders operating in CAR. Research released for Resolve this summer by Cakaj highlights some of Ladeere’s history and provides some additional insight into the LRA’s possible motivations. Ladeere was once one of Kony’s trusted bodyguards, and later promoted to command the Independent Battalion, one of Kony’s security units. In early 2013, Ladeere was reportedly given command of one of Kony’s satellite groups operating in either the Sudanese-controlled Kafia Kingi enclave or across the border in northeastern CAR. Though it’s unclear exactly when Ladeere’s group traveled southwest from there towards Nzako, Kony’s group left Kafia Kingi in March 2013 just before a Ugandan military raid on his camp. Ladeere’s group may have fled towards Nzako immediately after that, and may have been responsible for a series of a brutal attacks on Central African communities that lie between Kafia Kingi and Nzako in May and June 2013. Unfortunate blow-up Though the intentions of Ladeere’s group remain unclear, what is clear is that reports of Kony surrendering, or even participating in negotiations to surrender, are dramatically exaggerated. It’s possible that Ladeere is acting independently and is simply using Kony’s name to legitimize his actions. Even if he is acting on Kony’s orders, history should warn Djotodia and the CAR authorities against taking the group’s stated intention of defecting at face value. *General Demane served with Djotodia in the Union des Forces Démocratiques pour le Rassemblement (UFDR), one of the groups that comprised the Seleka force that overthrew the CAR government in March 2013. He reportedly commands Seleka troops operating in Nzako and nearby towns such as Bria, which dot a sparsely populated landscape rich in diamonds, gold, and uranium. As a former field commander with the UFDR, Demane is likely very familiar with the LRA, which clashed with UFDR forces in 2010 and 2011. http://www.theresolve.org/2013/11/the-backstory-on-konys-surrender-talks/ END3 4. Uganda welcomes Kony surrender but will not protect him from the ICC November 21, 2013 (KAMPALA) - Uganda’s military on Thursday welcomed reports of negotiations on possible surrender of the leader of the rebel Lords Resistance Army (LRA) but cautioned it will not be able to protect the rebel leader from prosecution by the International Criminal court (ICC). Media reports have quoted officials from Central Africa Republic (CAR) as saying they are in contact with the rebel leaders who they say is in bad health and wants assurance over his security after surrendering. The AFP news agency quoted CAR President, Michel Djotodia saying that his government was in negotiations with Kony. "Joseph Kony wants to come out of the bush. We are negotiating with him." Kony and his senior commanders were indicted by The Hague based ICC in 2005. He is accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity. In an interview with Sudan Tribune on Thursday, the deputy spokesperson of the Uganda’s military, Robert Ngabirona said they welcome reports of the notorious rebel leaders’ surrender. "We welcome him back home. We have an open amnesty for the LRA and indeed some LRA fighters who abandoned rebellion have been educated, rehabilitated and integrated in the Uganda Peoples Defence Forces(UPDF)", said Ngabirano. The army spokesman, however, added that if the LRA leader surrenders he will not be protected from prosecution by the ICC. "Kony is wanted by the ICC. If he surrenders, well and good. We welcome him but the ICC will have to pick on from there." The military spokesman however said Uganda had not yet received any official communication from CAR on the negotiations it is having with the LRA. LOCALS, AMERICANS SKEPTICAL In northern Uganda where for 20 years, the LRA wrecked havoc displacing nearly two million people from their homes at the peak of the conflict, news of Kony’s reported plan to surrender has been received with scepticism "Kony will not surrender,’’ said Sam Lawino, a journalist who extensively covered the conflict in northern Uganda before the LRA was flushed out of the country in 2006. "Kony fears the ICC. I don’t think he will surrender with the ICC there. It could just be a new tactic by the LRA", said Lawino. "I will be surprised if Kony surrenders. I doubt he will,’’ said a resident of Gulu town who did not want to be named. Gulu was at the epicentre of the conflict in the region. Talks between the LRA and the Ugandan government ended inconclusively in the South Sudan capital of Juba, with the key sticking point being the ICC indictments which the LRA leadership wanted dropped. The Ugandan government said, as it is saying now, that it does not have the powers to drop the ICC charges. News of LRA surrender has also been received with scepticism in Washington. An American official stated that some LRA rebels had been in contact with the government in CAR but Kony was not among them. "At this time, we have little reason to believe that Joseph Kony is part of this group,” the State Department official said. The US has a USD 5 million dollar bounty on Kony’s head. INVISIBLE CHILDREN CAUTION The American advocacy group, Invisible Children, which has been at the forefront of the highlighting the atrocities of the LRA in northern Uganda and in the Great Lakes region cautioned on Thursday that Kony could be playing an old trick. "Any report that Kony may want to negotiate a surrender should automatically be met with caution. None of our local sources have substantiated the claims that there is a direct communication with Kony", said the Chief Executive of the charity, Been Keesey, in a blog post adding ‘‘Additionally, Kony has used and abused the call for peace talks many times… usually at moments when his power is the weakest.’’ On Wednesday this week Invisible Children presented a petition to the Ugandan parliament signed by over 3,500 community members affected by the LRA conflict in four countries in the Great Lakes while calling on the international community and regional governments to do more in ending the conflict. UGANDA ARMY WAITING FOR INSTRUCTIONS The fight against the LRA rebels by armies in the Great Lakes region stalled after Seleka rebels who took over power in CAR in March this year ordered foreign troops to leave its territory. But Uganda’s deputy army spokesman, Robert Ngabirano said the Ugandan army is still in CAR but only at designated assembly points and with instructions not to hunt for the LRA. "We have soldiers at assembly points but not fighting. We are waiting for orders from our Commander –in- Chief and the African Union (AU)", said Ngabirano. About AU 3,000 troops with assistance of 100 military advisers sent by US President Barrack Obama was fighting the LRA until they were ordered to leave the country by the new government in CAR. (ST) http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article48887 END4 ______________________ John Ashworth Sudan, South Sudan Advisor [email protected] +254 725 926 297 (Kenya mobile) +211 919 695 362 (South Sudan mobile) +27 79 832 8834 (South Africa mobile) +44 750 304 1790 (UK/international) +88 216 4334 0735 (Thuraya satphone) PO Box 52662 - 00100, Nairobi, Kenya This is a personal e-mail address and the contents do not necessarily reflect the views of any organisation -- -- The content of this message does not necessarily reflect John Ashworth's views. Unless explicitly stated otherwise, John Ashworth is not the author of the content and the source is always cited. You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "sudan-john-ashworth" group. 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