-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: Nifty May Continue To Be Jittery Amid Negative Global Cues &
Elevated NPL(s) By Banks (Axis/IDBI); Watch 8640-8720 In NF
Date: Wed, 26 Oct 2016 09:13:29 +0530
From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com>
Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com
*Market Mantra: 26/10/2016 (08:00)*
As par early SGX indication, NF may open around 8665 (-38 points)
following over night & morning fall in US stock FUT (overall -0.50%) and
negative Asian cues.
*Looking at the chart, sustaining below 8660-8640* zone, NF may further
fall towards 8580-8545* & 8500-8465* area for the day.*
*For any meaningful strength, NF need to stay above 8705-8720* area for
further rally towards 8760*-8800 & 8840-8895* zone as the day may progress.*
*Similarly, for BNF (LTP:19851), sustaining below 19700-19650* area, it
may further fall towards 19450*-19300 & 19100-19000 zone for the day.*
*
*
*On the other side, for any strength, BNF need to stay above
19900-19975* area for further rally towards 20050-20200* & 20300-20350*
zone as the day may proceeds.*
Overnight US market was weak following mixed earnings and economic data.
US consumer sentiment was weak, apparently for lack of suitable job
openings just ahead of election. Guidance given by Apple was tepid and
that's also dented the early Asian sentiment.
Overall, recent sets of good economic data in EZ/Germany, coupled with
some hawkish script by BOE yesterday put the USD in some kind of
pressure. Also, as par some reports, gap of approval rating between
Clinton & Trump is again narrowing with US election just two weeks away.
But, despite dip in US consumer sentiment in yesterday's data, overall
incoming US economic data including the consumer sentiment itself is
well above Fed's red line on an average and FFR is now indicating almost
75% probability of Dec'16 rate hike.
Yesterday, dollar index briefly breached 99 and then some profit booking
may happen with US yields falling.
Crude oil slipped to around $49 amid various squabbling by OPEC and a
private report shows sudden build in inventories, specially gasoline.
Back to home, apart from the ongoing tussles of Tata & continuous cease
fire violations in Ind-Pak border just ahead of Diwali Festival,
sentiment of Indian market may also be subdued for poor results by
Axis/IDBI Bank (well blow consensus) & Bharti (although better than
consensus).
The sudden sharp rise in stressed assets for Axis & IDBI bank may be
also an indication that NPA cycle may not be over yet for Indian banking
system and they are still struggling to cope with the huge burden of
stressed assets.
More importantly, there is no taker/buyer for stressed assets, who can
replace the existing management with another suitable one, having
related professional expertise. So, even if banks acquire those ailing
stressed assets, it will be very difficult to rejuvenate it and make an
effective resolution of the NPA/NPL for them as the actual issue may be
more structural, rather than some specific corporate groups.
<https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-IZvcHn0xc4w/WBAj0zpo07I/AAAAAAAAJQQ/7urWpHca3nIA-YlFeRsMhSimrpb_in40gCLcB/s1600/BNF-25-10-2016.png>
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
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