Hi Mike;
I've stuck a few comments interspersed with yours below;
Michael Redler wrote:
Joe,
"...but as for the nuclear arsenal I think its real value is in
the deterent aspect."
With all due respect, you're really opening Pandora's box with
that one.
It has been open for 60 years and I didn't open it, we have the US
government to thank for that.
Our nuclear arsenal doesn't make conclusions about weapons being
offensive or defensive. There is no sense of scale nor are there
predetermined rules as to where or when they should be used.
There is a sense of scale though. Nukes operate on a scale that makes
the thin veil of atmosphere of our planet look a bit like a closed
bottle.
There are two things you can count on when analyzing the
behavior of any military entity, whether they be the modern American
military or ancient Romans:
When politicians recognize that they have a formidable army at
their disposal, they will want to use it as a way of implementing
policy (von Clausewitz).
When military leaders have weapons at there disposal that helps
them win wars, they will use them. They are not concerned with the
amount of destruction they cause - only the objective. In fact, that's
the whole point isn't it?
What does it mean; "win"? Even a limited nuclear exchange (if it is
possible -which I doubt) would release sufficient crap into the
environment to be unhealthy to the so called victor.
As the US government passes judgment on other countries for
developing nuclear weapons, they are leaving behind battlefields in
Iraq with nuclear waste in the form of airborne dust and hard shells of
glass-like, radioactive coatings on their former targets as a result of
using depleted uranium.
Yes and there is mounting evidence about just how nasty these clouds of
gaslike nanoscale uranium dust really are and the jury is still out on
what the long lasting effects are and just how far downwind they are
felt.
The US government promises further development of battlefield
nuclear weapons as they preach to others how potentially dangerous they
are in the "wrong hands".
(IMO) there is nothing good about nuclear weapons and MAD
(mutually assured destruction) has outlived it's usefulness (as if it
ever was useful) and is nothing more than a cold war relic.
Mike
Yeah mutal assured destruction is yesterday's theme for sure 'cauze
human nature is more modern now than it was during the cold war. That's
why the end of the cold war was so stabilizing on the world. Threats
never outlive thier usefulness so long as the ugly side of human nature
continues to exist. Unless you want to turn the other cheek. We've
never seen a serious attempt to implement that strategy on a global
scale. Maybe that's a plan. Ok who should go first? Maybe we should
draw straws or something. No wait -maybe just when the s--t is about to
hit the fan god's hand will come down and squeeze the missle silos
between his thumb and index finger like little zits on the face of the
planet. And he'll probably level the playing field at the same time.
Then we'll be able to start from scratch and everyone will realise they
should play nice. Probably no one will want more than they need then.
And probably I will look like a movie star and all the women will want
me but I will stick with just one. I think it could happen.
J
Hi
Robert et al;
The guy who made the comment about nukes was me. I am in total
agreement with you about the impending economic restructuring. That's
a nice euphemism isn't it? What it really means though if you sit down
and think about it is just as you said. Rising energy costs and the
secondary effects of that will force a tremendous change on our
wasteful style of living. After it is all over and the new stable
system has settled down things will look very different. During the
transition people who are currently in denial will be forced into a
brutal reality therapy. And there will be a war. What happens during
this time will surely be chaotic because those with thier heads in the
sand right now will not accept change willingly, but as for the nuclear
arsenal I think its real value is in the deterent aspect. That was why
I used the grenade inside a closed room analogy. Even if things get
really bad economically and the house of cards comes down, I like to
believe that although people can be selfish, greedy,
arrogant....(insert your favorite insult here) ....all of those self
serving iterests also serve NOT letting off one of those firecrackers.
They are only for show. (I hope).
Your comments on hyperinflation are well founded and well taken. I
have been considering the investment in a photovoltaic system and have
started to consider that although the cost is almost prohibitive at
this time just imagine what the asking price for alternatives will
become when the restructuring hits! It may be that the window of
opportunity for that type of investment is about to close (for the
average joe). And the question of worth begins to take a radical turn
as you pointed out. What will become the new controlling economy once
oil and its derivatives are out of reach? Consider what results when
massive unemployment collides with massive debt. Those SUV's that
people cannot unload, will they get reposessed? Along with the 2500 sq
ft houses that are suddenly unaffordable? And if so who are the banks
going to sell them to? Your eldest sister may be able to hang on for
longer than most but unless she invests in a strategy that gives her
some degree of independance it will run out at some point. If the
economy could be restarted she may weather it, but suppose the house of
cards cannot be rebuit because it has been sitting on a foundation of
cheap energy which no longer exists and will never return? She will be
the latecomer to this list.
Enough doom and gloom already.
Joe
robert luis rabello wrote:
Tom Irwin wrote:
Hi Robert and all,
At what price will demand for oil fall, say in China or the U.S. ? Is
there an economist out there currently making millions in the futures
market that knows that answer? Does $60-$70 per barrel of oil contain
the environmental cost of obtaining and utilizing that oil? It is mid
winter here and my early spring jazmine bush is already full blooming
and my raspberries are starting to bud. Basically my backyard garden is
telling me something that is obviously beyond the mere current cost of a
barrel of oil.
Tom Irwin
My sister suffers from a common delusion in North America: "Nothing
is wrong. Everything will go on the way it always has. Don't concern
yourself with issues raised by the lunatic fringe of the environmental
movement."
I remember what hyperinflation was like in Brasil, where the money
spent on a refrigerator one month would barely serve to buy a six pack
of beer for it the next. I can imagine wealth painstakingly built
over a lifetime disappearing like a morning mist. It's quite possible
that economic problems will force a fundamental change in societal
structure which some (mostly rich people like my eldest sister) will
weather without grave difficulty.
While markets may adjust, there WILL be a human cost, particularly if
energy prices rise rapidly. We should have had an energy policy
decades ago, and I believe we will pay for our procrastination. It
doesn't do a family who is mortgaged up to the hilt and paying better
than $500 per month on their V 8 powered machine any good to consider
a hybrid, if their SUV is worth less than what they owe. The
efficiency improvements "mandated" by increasing scarcity require
capital investment that simply will not be available to most people
whose financial situations conform to the consumerist paradigm.
The fundamental problem of remaining oil reserves requiring more and
more energy to extract is totally LOST on most people. This will
create a scramble for easily recoverable resources likely involving
yet another round of bombs, bullets and death. My country is on a
collision course with China, and thus far, because our leaders are
listening to nonsensical market prognosticators who visualize an
endless rise in GDP, they've done NOTHING serious to reduce our
energy-related gluttony.
Someone in this forum wrote that the U.S. will never use its nuclear
weapons. I don't see how we could take on China without them, yet if
we do so, we will drag the rest of the world down with us. It's a
path we needn't follow, and that's why the dialogue in this forum is
so critical.
As for the weather, we've endured several weeks of temperatures
approaching 40 degrees. My grass is brown and dotted with Keith's
beloved "deep rooting herbs". Trees are already losing their leaves.
However, our vegetable garden is bursting with produce. We've NEVER
had such an abundant harvest, and for the first time EVER, I'm growing
maize that's taller than I am! (We have a sunflower that is well over
3 meters in height, too!) There has been no snow left on the local
mountains (except for Mount Baker, which rises some 3 400 meters above
sea level) for months now. This year's salmon run is pathetic!
Yet most people remain unconcerned. They're reading and believing
articles like "Economist make sense".
Meanwhile, I'm making compost, walking instead of driving, and
harvesting food from my own property.
robert luis rabello
"The Edge of Justice"
Adventure for Your Mind
http://www.newadventure.ca
Ranger Supercharger Project Page
http://www.members.shaw.ca/rabello/
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