Mike Weaver wrote:
Redler, you never like my ideas. You've made me cry. Now how do you feel? *snif*Ok I can't leave well enough alone. A good friend who follows peak oil pretty closely sent me this. I think it's optimistic at best and pretty delusional at worst. I found it to be very revealing. Keep in mind that "The Economist" is about as conservative as they come. For decades now BigOil(tm) has been telling us that there's no global warming, no shortage of oil, no peak oil event to be concerned about. Reserves were essentially endless and we could all drive our SUV's without a worry. While their conclusions were kind of suspect (Don't worry! Be Happy!) the number of points they conceded was a shocker to me. Things like these: It is true that the big firms are struggling to replace reserves ....... And as the great fields of the North Sea and Alaska mature, non-OPEC oil production will probably peak by 2010 or 2015 ...... [Note: Do they have ANY idea at all what peak oil OUTSIDE OPEC will mean to the industrial world?] After Ghawar......Further, just because there are no more Ghawars does not mean an end to discovery altogether. Using ever fancier technologies, the oil business is drilling in deeper waters, more difficult terrain and even in the Arctic (which, as global warming melts the polar ice cap, will perversely become the next great prize in oil). ......In recent weeks a scandal has engulfed Kuwait, too. Petroleum Intelligence Weekly (PIW), a respected industry newsletter, got hold of government documents suggesting that Kuwait might have only half of the nearly 100 billion barrels in oil reserves that it claims (Saudi Arabia claims 260 billion barrels)....... The other worry of pessimists is that alternatives to oil simply cannot be brought online fast enough to compensate for oil's imminent decline. ...... The best reason to think so comes from the radical transformation now taking place among big oil firms. The global oil industry, argues Chevron, is changing from “an exploration business to a manufacturing business”. [] Several big GTL projects are under way in Qatar, where the North gas field is perhaps twice the size of even Ghawar when measured in terms of the energy it contains. Nigeria and others are also pursuing GTL. Since the world has far more natural gas left than oil—much of it outside the Middle East—making fuel in this way would greatly increase the world's remaining supplies of oil....... For a right-wing paper like them this is practically a wholesale surrender. They're actually talking about global warming, peak oil, alternative fuels, finding less oil than we're using, etc etc. It's progress - the more they start to acknowledge these things the less the environmentalists/peak-oil people look like nutcases. It's just a different interpretation of timing. They'll come 'round in the end, of course. If they're right about non-OPEC oil peaking in 2010 to 2015 current administrations all around the world ought to sit up and take notice though - with demand growing and non-OPEC production declining they're completely in the drivers seat. --- David How long will it take (and cost) to get all this whiz bang stuff going? There's no doubt in my mind the petro economy is doomed. Now, if we had any sense we'd wean ourselves NOW, while we can, use whatever technology may work to do it and move to the next phase. Even in the best case scenario the price of oil is going to continue to climb and climb. They also make the sweeping statement that "the World is not about to run out of oil". The world WILL NEVER run out of oil. There just WON'T BE ENOUGH for everyone to go as we are. I'm sure there will alwasy be a trickle ot two... Weaver Michael Redler wrote:Schizophrenic/Procrastinating/Clueless economists: They concede to: The rising costs of oil exploration The eminent peak and subsequent end to oil as a main source of fuel The fact that for every three barrels used there is only one barrel of newly discovered oil to replenish it. At the same time they seem to feel that new technology and techniques in exploration and the resulting increase in yield allows you to delay the peak. They also make the sweeping statement that "the World is not about to run out of oil". What does "about" mean and when will they have the foresight to see the value of doing something sooner rather than later? More importantly, who is "the World" and when are they going to count countries (i.e. Iraq) who are slowly losing control of their oil. What a bunch of crap! Weaver!! You couldn't leave well enough alone, could you. Mike */Mike Weaver <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>/* wrote: http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=6823506 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ _______________________________________________ Biofuel mailing list Biofuel@sustainablelists.org http://sustainablelists.org/mailman/listinfo/biofuel_sustainablelists.org Biofuel at Journey to Forever: http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html Search the combined Biofuel and Biofuels-biz list archives (50,000 messages): http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/_______________________________________________ Biofuel mailing list Biofuel@sustainablelists.org http://sustainablelists.org/mailman/listinfo/biofuel_sustainablelists.org Biofuel at Journey to Forever: http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html Search the combined Biofuel and Biofuels-biz list archives (50,000 messages): http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/ |
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