>Joe Street asks, Is there anything we at home can do to help speed >this process? :) > >I suggest: Implore your Federal representatives to continue raising >the debt ceiling, to continue supporting the war in Iraq and >Afghanistan, to start another war in Iran, etc etc. Or better, >don't waste your time.
Or better still, stop killing people so casually and go home, like everybody's telling you to. If you really want to go bombing the hell out of Iran just to fiddle with the Federal Reserve or something you might at least ask them first, it's only polite, it's their collateral after all. >Instead, I ask you, Joe, and the List, how do you believe the >average "Joe" should prepare for the inevitable demise of the US >dollar??? I don't think it's inevitable. Or at least I don't think an economic collapse is inevitable. Or not because of the dollar anyway. Energy is a more threatening issue, IMHO. >I'm not trying to be facetious. I'm asking a real question, seeking >a real answer. Might not like the answer, but I'd like to hear. >Also, Keith, how will Japan be affected? Japan is one of the >largest holders of US Debt. Mike DuPree Well, you see, there's this economic crisis here that the Japanese have been struggling to survive in recent years. I guess it will grow even more severe. It's a strange kind of economic crisis, at first glance. For one thing it's not characterised by any shortage of money at any level, if you can picture that. Actually it seems to be impossible to picture it, at least in newspaper articles about the severity of the crisis, which usually show photographs of the stock exchange. No images of suffering or blighted inner cities or rust belts of dead factories rotting away. It's not that they hide it, it's just that there aren't any such things here. When interviewed, ordinary people say they're deeply worried that their retirement income might not be as much as they'd thought. It still won't leave them poor though. There is evidence of the crisis at street level, if you know where to look. In the financial district in Tokyo there are coffee shops that are filled each day with displaced sararimen who've been retrenched. They get up in the morning, grab their suit and attache case and rush off to work as usual even though they don't have a job to go to anymore, because if the truth came out in the neighbourhood the sheer loss of social status would destroy the wife. They're not suffering though except existentially, they get really good pay-offs. Another street-level indicator is how empty the shops are. There's an instant cure available for the sheer burden of hopelessness and depression that comes with trying to live through an economic crisis such as this one. You go shopping. It helps take your mind off things. When it's really serious the shops are full. I guess they'll just go shopping Mike. Sorry... I'm not really joking though. Sweden also has this kind of economic crisis sometimes, that's the envy of the world. They just can't see how rich they are. I laugh at Swedes about it, and they say yes they know, but THIS time it's real. Right. Maybe Switzerland has them too. I'm not sure what Japan's economic policy is. Maybe they haven't got one, it's kind of hard to find an actual policy on anything in Japan. It doesn't seem to be how they do things here. Henry Ford invented the "Just In Time" inventory strategy of stock keeping, but it was Toyota who put it on the map. It's very Japanese! Maybe it describes Japanese economics quite well too, JIT economics. It might look like they haven't seen something creeping up on them but I wouldn't bank on it. Japan has the world's fifth largest military budget but the military is just about invisible here, and they pay for it without arms exports. I don't think anyone else can manage that, or not easily. Japan is strangely invisible in many ways, but it's one of the three great economic powers in the world, its technological base is the equal of any, and whatever the economic future holds Japan is sure to play a major role in it. They're capable of things the West wouldn't imagine, they have different depths of experience to draw on, they keep proving it. They have a great deal to contribute. Best Keith >----- Original Message ----- >From: "Joe Street" ><<mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]>[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >To: <<mailto:biofuel@sustainablelists.org>biofuel@sustainablelists.org> >Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 8:29 AM >Subject: [SPAMPROB:51%] Re: [Biofuel] threat to U.S. dollar > > > Is there anything we at home can do to help speed this process? :) > > > > Joe > > > > AltEnergyNetwork wrote: > > > >> > >> < ><http://www.vheadline.com/readnews.asp?id=58951>http://www.vheadline.c >om/readnews.asp?id=58951 > > >> > >> > >> Threat against the US$ comes from countries such as Iran > >> and Venezuela... > >> > >> Former Nordland University (Norway) associate professor, > >> Dr. Abbas Bakhtiar writes: On Wednesday, May 17, the > >> Dow Jones plunged 214 points to 11,206 -- its worst point > >> drop since March 2003. The downward trend started a week > >> ago and is a warning sign of troubles ahead. This sudden > >> drop has come as a complete surprise to the unfortunate > >> small investors and speculators. The so called ìexpertsî > >> point at the sudden threat of inflation as the main cause > >> of the recent reversals in the markets. > >> > >> What is actually surprising is the surprise of the > >> ìexperts." A cursory look at the United Statesí finances > >> will reveal the amount of pressure that its economy is > >> under. > >> > >> When Bush became president in 2001, the United Statesí > >> public debt was 5.8 trillion dollars. Today the public > >> debt stands at US$8.3 trillion. Of this over $2.2 > >> trillion are held by foreigners. The United States > >> has a GDP of $12.4 trillion ... this gives the US a > >> Debt/GDP ratio of 66%, placing it in 35th place > >> (out of 113) in the ranking of the Debtor Nations. > >> > >> The current account deficit of over 7% has long passed > >> its danger levels of 4-5%. In 2005 the US government > >> paid $325 billion only in interest payments alone. > >> Then, there are the future obligations such as Medicare, > >> Social Security and government pensions. These obligations >amount to $54 trillion. This huge problem worried the former Federal >Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan. He told congress: ìAs a nation, we >may have already made promises to coming generations of retirees >that we will be unable to fulfil.î > >> > >> One would think that this amount of debt would worry the > >> president and the congress ... but apparently it does not. The >United Statesí Congress recently (March 2006) voted to increase the >Federal debt limit to $9 trillion. Any other nation in similar >circumstances would have had to approach IMF for help. The IMF would >then have forced that nation to cut spending and devalue its >currency ... but US does not need to do this. The US can just print >some more dollars. > >> > >> But how long can this continue before the world loose > >> faith in the greenback, sending it crashing to > >> unimaginable levels. > >> > >> The Asian Lender > >> > >> The Asian countries such as Japan, China and others > >> that hold most of the US debts have been happy to > >> indulge the American deficit spending. This has been > >> a two-way Street, America has kept its market open > >> to their products and they have financed the Americansí > >> spending. > >> > >> The value of US dollar so far has been kept artificially > >> high by Japan, China and oil-exporting countries. > >> These countries by buying US debts have has kept > >> interests rates relatively low in the United States > >> and allowed Americans to keep spending even as their > >> debts mount. > >> > >> But there is only so much risk these lenders > >> (Asian and oil-exporting countries) are willing to > >> take. Any serious devaluation of the US$ will > >> considerably reduce the value of their national > >> reserves (mostly kept in dollars) and the value > >> of their debt holdings (certificates, bonds, etc.). > >> At the same time, the devaluation will affect their > >> exports to the US. > >> > >> A weaker dollar makes their products more expensive > >> in US, thereby reducing their export earnings. > >> Most Asian countries keep up to 70% of their reserves > >> in dollars. China with the reserves of over $800 billion > >> has already begun to slowly reduce its dependency on > >> dollars by converting part of its reserves to other > >> currencies. > >> > >> If other Asian countries -- with their vast dollar > >> holdings -- follow suit, then it will be disastrous > >> for the value of dollar. Nobody is interested in > >> holding a weakening currency. > >> > >> Petro-Dollar > >> > >> Another threat against the dollar comes from countries > >> such as Iran and Venezuela. > >> > >> Iran recently registered an Oil Bourse to compete with > >> Bourses in New York and London. The threat comes from > >> the currency in which the oil is to be sold in Euro. > >> Iranians are going to make the Euro the standard > >> currency for oil transactions. Some sympathetic > >> countries such as Venezuela and others may join in. > >> If the Iranians succeed in this, the pressure on > >> dollar will be catastrophic. Nearly every country > >> has to hold a certain amount of dollars in reserve > >> for oil purchases. > >> > >> If the dollar continues to weaken in value, and there > >> is the possibility of purchasing oil in Euro, then > >> these countries would unload their dollars for safer > >> currencies such as Euro. > >> > >> What will then happen to the value of dollar? > >> > >> Iraq and Iran > >> > >> As though there is not enough pressure on the dollar, > >> the US government keeps spending money in an un-winnable > >> war in Iraq and is considering starting another one in > >> Iran. The total cost of Iraq war, including the future > >> payment to the disabled soldiers, replacement of > >> equipment, etc., is estimated be between $1-2 trillion. > >> > >> Any attack on Iran will substantially increase this > >> cost ... even if there is no attack, the tense > >> situation in the region will keep the oil prices > >> at uncomfortable levels, contributing to both a > >> reduction in US growth and an increase in its > >> deficit. > >> > >> Conclusion > >> > >> The current American deficit and its long-term financial > >> obligations, if goes un-answered, will sooner or later > >> lead to either a marked increase in interest rate or a > >> substantial devaluation of dollar. > >> > >> On the one hand, a substantial increase in interest rates > >> will lead to a major recession in USA which will be felt > >> immediately around the world. > >> > >> On the other hand, a substantial devaluation will cause > >> financial chaos in the world. > >> > >> What is needed is to seriously reconsider the international > >> role of the dollar as the world currency ... in other > >> words we need a new Bretton Woods Agreement. > >> > >> At the end of the WWII, 45 nations gathered at a United > >> Nations Monetary & Financial Conference in Bretton > >> Woods, New Hampshire to address the problems of > >> reconstruction, monetary stability and exchange > >> rates. The delegates agreed to establish an > >> international monetary system of convertible > >> currencies, fixed exchange rates and free trade. > >> To facilitate these objectives the delegates agreed > >> to create two international institutes: the > >> International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the International > >> Bank for Reconstruction & Development (the World Bank). > >> An initial loan of $250 million to France in 1947 was > >> the World Bankís first act. > >> > >> Since then there has already been considerable criticism > >> of the roles of IMF and the World Bank. The above > >> mentioned problems and the ongoing trade imbalance > >> in the world have to be addressed by a similar gathering. > >> > >> Sooner or later, both the United States and the rest > >> of the world have to address the existing problems. > >> > >> This problem is not United States alone. > >> > >> We can not ignore the largest economy on earth ... it > >> is said that if United States sneezes, the world catches > >> cold. > >> We have to either make sure that United States doesnít > >> catch cold or vaccinate ourselves against it. > >> > >> Abbas Bakhtiar > >> > >> > >> Dr. Abbas Bakhtiar is a former associate > >> professor of Norway's Nordland University. > >> He is currently writing a book about the > >> reasons behind the United States involvement > >> in Iraq and Iran. > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> Venezuelan president Chavez pledges energy loans to Bolivia > >> > >> < ><http://www.alternate-energy.net/N/news.php?detail=n1148814738.news>ht >tp://www.alternate-energy.net/N/news.php?detail=n1148814738.news > > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> Get your daily alternative energy news > >> > >> Alternate Energy Resource Network > >> 1000+ news sources-resources > >> updated daily > >> > >> <http://www.alternate-energy.net>http://www.alternate-energy.net _______________________________________________ Biofuel mailing list Biofuel@sustainablelists.org http://sustainablelists.org/mailman/listinfo/biofuel_sustainablelists.org Biofuel at Journey to Forever: http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html Search the combined Biofuel and Biofuels-biz list archives (50,000 messages): http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/
