On 4/19/2013 2:06 PM, Darryl McMahon wrote:
Hi Robert,
as you might expect, I saw this announcement earlier in the week.
While industry analysts are excited, my enthusiasm is restrained. When
they get this to market as an affordable product in a size that is
relevant to vehicle propulsion, then I will be excited.
Right now I'm underwhelmed. I've read periodic announcements like
this before, and I can't help but wonder how much is hype designed to
stir investment dollars, as opposed to a genuine breakthrough.
Today, we have OEMs making electric cars that are affordable (e.g.,
2012 Mitsubishi i-MiEV can be acquired today for about $21,000 (after
rebates and before taxes) in Ontario - range about 100 km (reliable in
winter). The 2012 Nissan Leaf can be acquired locally now for about
$25,000 (after rebates and before taxes) - range about 120 km
(reliable in winter).
The Leaf is supposed to be a nice car. I've also been ogling that
Ford Focus EV, but that's running close to $50K. My Ranger is aging not
so gracefully now, my boys are getting ready to leave home, and if I'm
going to buy a car at all, it's going to be an EV. Having written this,
I'd prefer to avoid buying ANYTHING, as the embodied energy in an
automobile, along with its requisite infrastructure, contributes
mightily to dependence on fossil energy and climate change.
The Tesla Model S (85kWh) can be acquired for about $92,000 (after
rebates and before taxes) - range about 400 km (reliable in winter).
(An amazing car.) That's with technology we saw on the market in
small form factors a decade ago.
We saw one in Langley a couple of weeks ago. It's a beautiful
machine, for certain!
I wonder what is stopping people from buying these vehicles in huge
numbers today. They want to support the oil industry? Climate change
is a hoax? They think the price of gasoline and diesel is going to
drop dramatically in the near future and stay there indefinitely? The
Osborne Effect (waiting for the next generation of a product which
they expect to be better and cheaper, creating the risk that the
vendor founders before they can produce it)?
The last car we bought was a hybrid Camry, more than 6 years ago.
We decided to support hybrid technology because if there is no demand,
innovation will stop. The same thing is true of battery electrics. But
while hybrids have been steadily gaining market share (there are quite a
few of them in our neighborhood), battery electrics remain rare birds.
People I've spoken to about this believe they're too expensive and don't
like the limited range.
They really do travel over 4 hours at a time at highway speeds,
multiple times per day, on a routine basis? (I telecommute now, but I
remember resenting 20 minute commutes as a colossal waste of time.)
No, of course not. But perception and reality are often two
different things. If, however, I had to work in Vancouver, I'd hit the
range limit of the Focus EV in a single direction.
Is it really still the sticker price? Supposing you plan to own a car
for 10 years, and travel 20,000 km/year, and it gets a real world fuel
consumption in the order of 8 litres/100 km, and gasoline is an
average of just $1.50 per litre over the next 10 years. Well, 200,000
km at 8 L/100k is 16,000 litres for fuel. At $1.50, that's $24,000 -
more than the price of the car (for the Leaf or i-MiEV). The
electricity cost is almost trivial - charging at off-peak times, it
really is, but let's say it's 2 cents per km over the 10 years, for a
total of $4,000 for the whole decade. i-MiEV plus electricity for 10
years: $25,000. New gasoline econobox (e.g., Ford Focus) $17,000
vehicle + $24,000 fuel: $41,000. That's before we impose a carbon tax.
Agreed. The maths make sense. Our family laughed at us for buying a
hybrid, but they're not laughing now . . .
The other exciting place for low-cost, high-capacity, long-life
batteries (weight not an issue) is in storage for renewable energy
from solar, wind, tidal and other intermittent sources.
Sigh . . . One day!
Robert Luis Rabello
Adventure for Your Mind
http://www.newadventure.ca
Meet the People video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=txsCdh1hZ6c
Crisis video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZedNEXhTn4
The Long Journey video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vy4muxaksgk
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